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Singapore economy tipped to grow 5.5% next year; vaccines could push growth higher (nationthailand.com)

Singapore economy tipped to grow 5.5% next year; vaccines could push growth higher

Dec 10. 2020The economists also expect GDP to shrink by 4.5 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of this year. ST PHOTO: KUA CHEE SIONG 

By Ovais Subhani
The Straits Times/ANN

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s economy will grow by 5.5 per cent in 2021 to end the nation’s worst recession ever, induced by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a central bank survey of professional forecasters.

The pace of growth can be even higher if the pandemic is contained by a successful deployment of vaccines worldwide, they said.

The prediction made by 23 economists and analysts in the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) quarterly survey was unchanged from the previous forecast made in September.

However, their forecast range for 2021 growth narrowed to 5 per cent to 5.9 per cent from 4 per cent to 5.9 per cent, the MAS survey report released on Wednesday (Dec 9) showed.

The private forecast comes after the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in November forecast growth rebounding by 4 per cent to 6 per cent in 2021 – the most since at least 2011 when the economy expanded by 6.3 per cent.

For 2020, the private forecasters expect gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 6 per cent, also unchanged from the previous survey. That compares to MTI’s forecast of a 6.5 per cent to 6 per cent contraction in 2020.

The economists also expect GDP to shrink by 4.5 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of this year, after contracting by 5.8 per cent in the September to October period – a smaller decline than their forecast of a 7.6 per cent drop in the previous survey.

For the jobs market, they expect the unemployment rate to reach 3.7 per cent at the end of 2020, up from their estimate of 3.5 per cent in the previous survey.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index and the MAS core inflation in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to come in at minus 0.3 per cent and minus 0.2 per cent respectively.

Three-quarters of the respondents in the MAS survey expect private residential property prices to pick up in the October to December period compared with the previous quarter, while the rest believe these will remain stable.

Looking ahead, the containment of the pandemic, attributable primarily to the widespread global deployment of a vaccine, again emerged as the most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore’s growth outlook – with 77.8 per cent ranking it as the top upside risk.

The prospect of reopening borders to international travel was seen as a potential upside by 44.4 per cent of the respondents who also identified stronger-than-expected manufacturing sector performance led by electronics and pharmaceuticals production, as well as fiscal stimulus, in support of Singapore’s recovery.

On the downside, a further deterioration in the Covid-19 situation – due to new outbreaks or delays in vaccine development – once again topped the list of downside risks to Singapore’s growth outlook in the survey.

The threat was identified by 88.9 per cent of survey respondents and 72.2 per cent of them ranked it as the most important downside risk.

The economists were also concerned about risks stemming from an earlier-than-expected pullback in macroeconomic policy support globally, resulting in a premature tightening in global financial conditions and weaker demand due to fiscal consolidation.

This risk was identified by 44.4 per cent of respondents, up from 20 per cent in the previous survey.

An escalation in United States-China tensions was identified by 27.8 per cent as a downside risk, compared with 60 per cent in the previous survey.

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China’s GDP growth expected to be 8.8% in 2021 (nationthailand.com)

China’s GDP growth expected to be 8.8% in 2021

Dec 10. 2020A technician works on the production line of a car component manufacturer in Anshan, Liaoning province. [Photo/Xinhua] 

By SHI JING
China Daily/ANN

Recovery momentum in major sectors drives expansion, says KPMG report

China’s GDP growth rate is expected to touch 8.8 percent in 2021, thanks to the robust recovery momentum seen in major economic sectors, global consultancy KPMG said in a report.

With per capita disposable income of Chinese people returning to the positive territory during the third quarter of the year, consumption has also been staging a rebound. Consumer optimism and the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic control and prevention measures will further unlock the offline shopping potential in the subsequent months. The continued turnaround in consumption and service sectors will be the major economic driver next year, said Kang Yong, chief economist at KPMG China.

As outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) proposals, manufacturing, especially the high-end manufacturing sector, will become a major driving force of China’s long-term economic growth. KPMG expects the development of high-tech manufacturing and industrial upgrades to stimulate investment over the next 12 months. As privately owned enterprises account for 90 percent of China’s manufacturing sector, stronger investment data on manufacturing will reflect the improvement of the private sector, said Kang.

Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s export value increased by 2.4 percent on a yearly basis during the first 10 months of this year, exceeding market expectations. But the value of the global trade in goods contracted by 14 percent on a yearly basis during the first six months, according to World Trade Organization estimates.

Some of the global orders transferred to China this year, thanks to the country’s earlier recovery from the pandemic, have fueled the surge in exports, said Kang. Since the demand gap still exists in some overseas markets due to the pandemic, China’s export value will remain at a relatively high level next year, he said.

While concerns were being expressed on foreign investment as the pandemic spread globally at the beginning of the year, the value of actually utilized foreign capital grew by 6.4 percent on a yearly basis in China in the first 10 months. As estimated by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global foreign capital investment will slump by up to 40 percent this year.

“China’s large and rapidly expanding market, combined with its complete industrial system, high-quality infrastructure and deepened opening-up policies, are all huge attractions for foreign capital. While many industrial chains were hit by the pandemic, the resilience of the supply chains will top the company’s global mapping agenda and prompt adjustments,” said Kang.

Meanwhile, KPMG also foresees continued financial opening-up in 2021, which will further facilitate overseas investment in renminbi-denominated financial assets. Therefore, the renminbi exchange rate will likely remain stable next year, promising some room for appreciation. But companies must also keep an eye on the changes in monetary and fiscal policies, KPMG said.

With the official signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement on Nov 15, economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region will be further strengthened next year, said Kang. The regulations regarding tariff, investment negative list and e-commerce specified in the RCEP agreement will further consolidate the economic and trade ties among member states, which are conducive to more flexible industrial mapping within the region, said Kang.

Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments, also confirmed the positive outlook on the improved profitability of Chinese companies, thanks to the earlier recovery of the economy. Structural growth impetus from consumption, new technologies and green energy will further elevate the market performance, he said.

Given China’s steadily growing GDP, market giant BlackRock said in its 2021 investment report that China is a “distinct pole of global growth”, which is also “an investment destination separate from emerging markets”.

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Asian nations could mandate COVID-19 shots for travellers, AirAsia chief says (nationthailand.com)

Asian nations could mandate COVID-19 shots for travellers, AirAsia chief says

Dec 10. 2020

By The Star/ANN

KUALA LUMPUR: Governments in Asia could require inbound travellers to receive COVID-19 vaccinations, AirAsia Group’s Chief Executive Officer said on Wednesday, with such conditions expected to become a trend in the region.

“I foresee in Asia anyway, I think they won’t let anyone in without a vaccination,” AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes said at a CAPA Centre for Aviation event.

Fernandes said airlines are not likely to set such requirements for travellers.

“It’s not up to the airlines to decide. It’s for governments to decide. It’ll be the country that’ll decide if they will allow people to come in if they are not vaccinated,” he said.

Aviation industry opposition to requiring mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for passengers has intensified as impending drug approvals trigger a debate over their role in air travel.

Qantas Airways was the first airline to say it will require a COVID-19 vaccination for passengers on future international flights, which are now mostly idle because of Australia’s strict border controls.

“We believe that vaccinations will be required for entry to many countries in the future. And for a period of time, parallel requirements of (being) vaccinated or pre-flight negative tests,” said Todd Handcock, the Asia Pacific president of Collinson Group, which owns Priority Pass airport lounges.

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Japan govt OKs new stimulus package worth ¥73.6 trillion (nationthailand.com)

Japan govt OKs new stimulus package worth ¥73.6 trillion

Dec 10. 2020Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga attends a meeting of the government’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy at the Prime Minister’s Office on Tuesday. Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura is seated next to him. (The Yomiuri Shimbun) 

By The Japan News/ANN

The government on Tuesday approved an additional economic package worth ¥73.6 trillion, including ¥51.7 trillion for projects aimed at re-configuring the nation’s economy and bringing it back to pre-pandemic levels. It also contains measures aimed at accelerating the introduction of digital technology and the reduction of carbon emissions.

The package was adopted at an extraordinary Cabinet meeting on the day. Part of the funding for its various measures will consist of ¥40 trillion in fiscal spending — including money to be paid by local governments — in a third supplementary budget for fiscal 2020 through next March and the initial budget for fiscal 2021, jointly deemed “the 15-month budget.”

At a meeting of the government’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy held at the Prime Minister’s Office on Tuesday, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said, “In addition to financial support for medical institutions and helping companies raise funds, measures aimed at new growth have also been incorporated [in the package].”

The latest package follows two extra budgets for the current fiscal year that were earmarked to fight the novel coronavirus. It will bring the value of stimulus measures so far to a total of more than ¥307 trillion, equivalent to 60 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product. The government estimates that the stimulus measures will boost the nation’s GDP by 3.6 percent.

The latest package mainly comprises 1) measures to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus infections (¥6 trillion); 2) spending to re-configure the nation’s economy and bring it back to pre-pandemic levels (¥51.7 trillion); and 3) measures to prevent or mitigate damage from and enhance resilience against natural disasters (¥5.9 trillion).

As it is difficult to predict future events, the government will secure a reserve fund of ¥5 trillion in the initial budget for fiscal 2021.

Of the ¥40 trillion in fiscal spending, ¥30.6 trillion will be provided by the central government and ¥1.7 trillion by local governments, while the remaining ¥7.7 trillion will come from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, under which the government secures funds and extends low-interest loans to companies.

With such funding as loans from financial institutions added to the fiscal spending, the latest package will be worth a total of ¥73.6 trillion.

As budgetary measures accompanying the additional economic package, the government plans to include ¥19.2 trillion in the general account and ¥1 trillion in the special account of the third supplementary budget, which will be compiled next week.

The government will reinforce medical service systems to prevent the spread of infections, through such measures as securing more hospital beds. It will increase emergency comprehensive support grants to medical institutions, which are provided through prefectural governments, while promoting increased production of testing kits and greater readiness to administer vaccinations.

As part of efforts to re-configure the nation’s economy, the government will establish a ¥2 trillion fund for companies developing green technologies and work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to effectively zero by 2050.

The government will also extend through end of next June its Go To Travel campaign to promote domestic travel and its Go To Eat program for dining out, in a bid to balance measures to combat the coronavirus and to keep economic activities going.

The government will extend through next February the employment adjustment subsidy, a special measure to subsidize companies that have had to pay allowances to employees taking time off work. It will also expand the scale of its projects aimed at reinforcing the nation’s resilience against natural disasters.

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S. Korea on alert over spreading bird flu, more highly pathogenic cases likely in store (nationthailand.com)

S. Korea on alert over spreading bird flu, more highly pathogenic cases likely in store

Dec 10. 2020Quarantine officials prepare to cull ducks at a farm in Naju, 355 kilometers south of Seoul, on Wednesday. (Yonhap) 

By The Korea Herald/ANN

South Korea reported yet another suspected highly pathogenic avian influenza case from a poultry farm Thursday, raising concerns that the bird flu outbreak is spreading nationwide despite enhanced measures.

Authorities are investigating the suspected case in Naju, 355 kilometers south of Seoul, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. The samples were gathered from a slaughter house.

The farm had killed all of its 22,000 ducks to be sold at market, but they were discarded after the suspected case.

Another duck farm from the same town confirmed a highly pathogenic bird flu case the previous day. If found to be seriously contagious in a test, it will become the third such case from South Jeolla Province alone.

So far, South Korea has reported seven highly pathogenic avian influenza cases from poultry farms across the country, including two from Gyeonggi Province that surrounds the capital city.

There were also infection cases from North Chungcheong, North Gyeongsang and North Jeolla provinces.

South Korea completed the culling of more than 4 million poultry from affected farms late Wednesday, covering 2.42 million chickens, 1.01 million quails and 572,000 ducks.

Authorities cull poultry within a 3-km radius of infected farms. Birds at farms with suspected cases are also destroyed.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is contagious and can cause severe illness and even death in poultry.

The country reported its first highly pathogenic case in 32 months in late October in Cheonan, 92 kilometers south of Seoul, from wild birds.

Since then, a total of 22 cases have been found from wild bird habitats across the country, according to the latest data provided by the ministry. Health authorities are investigating more than 10 suspected cases among wild birds. (Yonhap)

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Hosting WEF ‘a feather in the cap’ for Singapore: Experts (nationthailand.com)

Hosting WEF ‘a feather in the cap’ for Singapore: Experts

Dec 09. 2020Singapore’s Marina Bay area before sunset:in September 2020. ST PHOTO: TIMOTHY DAVID 

By Justin Ong
The Straits Times/ANN

SINGAPORE – Hosting the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) next annual gathering of global political and business leaders bodes well for Singapore’s tourism and events sectors, said experts on Tuesday (Dec 8).

Public health experts also said that if handled properly, the WEF Special Annual Meeting 2021, slated for May 13 to 16, would be a testament to Singapore’s ability to manage Covid-19 measures for such a signature event. The WEF meeting typically attracts about 3,000 delegates to its usual location in Davos, Switzerland.

The switch to Singapore next year because of its handling of the virus puts the city-state firmly on the map, said Maybank Kim Eng analyst Chua Hak Bin.

He added that having all the world’s attention on the South-east Asian country presents an opportunity for Singapore to prove it has emerged from the pandemic unscathed, and is ready to resume business as usual as a connectivity hub for the rest of the world.

This is only the second time the WEF meeting will take place outside of Davos since it began in 1971. The 2002 edition was held in New York, as a show of solidarity with the US after the Sept 11 attacks.

Mr Benjamin Chiang, Asean government and public sector leader at EY, noted that the choice made by WEF was an “intangible vote of confidence” in Singapore as a meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (Mice) destination capable of managing the pandemic.

CIMB Private Bank economist Song Seng Wun said that while the “exciting, headline-grabbing” news was worth celebrating, another measure of success would be if it can coax the tourism and Mice industries back on their feet by getting people confident enough to travel to Singapore without hesitation.

“It’s the bread-and-butter, regular, routine events in Singapore – whether food festivals or anime conventions – that contribute to monthly tourism receipts,” he noted. “So while hosting WEF is a feather in the cap for Singapore, more importantly, it’s the reassurance it gives others that all events can be held here – safely.”

Industry stakeholders agreed that the decision was a major endorsement of Singapore’s capabilities as a leading global Mice hub.

This, said Mr Aloysius Arlando, president of the Singapore Association of Convention & Exhibition Organisers & Suppliers (SACEOS), would hopefully lead to more job and business opportunities – and in turn, help Singapore’s economic growth along.

On the geopolitical front, Dr Chong Ja Ian, associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) political science department, said: “There may be some agreements named after Singapore, but I do not expect larger, long-lasting effects… That said, the sitting administration in Singapore may wish to use the event to showcase Singapore as a location for similar events in future.”

This year’s gathering in Davos, in January, was attended by the likes of outgoing US President Donald Trump and teen climate activist Greta Thunberg. Previous attendees include other world and major corporate leaders such as Prince William, Mark Zuckerberg as well as celebrities from David Attenborough to U2’s Bono.

“As to who will attend physically next year, that will depend on how the Covid-19 situation and vaccination programmes play out. To the extent that the pandemic is controlled, there is more likely to be physical appearances,” said Dr Chong.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Trade and Industry reiterated that the health and safety of the local community and meeting attendees was “of utmost importance”.

“Attendees will be required to adhere to the prevailing stringent public health requirements, and safe management and distancing measures in Singapore,” the spokesman added.

Dr Jeremy Lim, from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at NUS, said there was no “magic number” of attendees that Singapore could safely host. It would depend on Singapore’s testing and contact tracing abilities, along with strategies for managing and hosting the guests, he added.

“Everyone who can be vaccinated should be vaccinated. And we probably need to have a tiered testing regime based on countries – similar to what Singapore has been doing,” he noted. “Hosting the WEF is a higher risk than not hosting the WEF. So it’s really about managing the risk, and at essentially three points.

“One – making sure, to the best of our abilities, no one with Covid-19 comes into Singapore. Second – anyone who has Covid and somehow slips through is detected early enough to minimise transmission. And third – if there is transmission, we detect it early enough that we can lock down all the persons who have been in contact, so that we can contain any secondary, tertiary spread.”

Said Professor Dale Fisher from the NUS’ Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine: “We’ve got all these tools to prevent spread, and it’ll be a combination of tests or interventions to make this particular conference safe. I’m quite sure that Singapore will not let this become a ‘superspreader’ event.”

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HCM City one of best cities in Asia for expats: survey (nationthailand.com)

HCM City one of best cities in Asia for expats: survey

Dec 09. 2020HCM City ranked 19th out of 86 cities globally for expats to live and work, according to one survey. Photo courtesy of the city Department of Tourism 

By Viet Nam News/ANN

HCM CITY — HCM City ranked 19th out of 86 cities globally for expats to live and work, and was only surpassed in Asia by Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, according to the Expat City Ranking 2020 by InterNations.

In Asia, Singapore ranked fifth, Kuala Lumpur eighth, Shanghai 21st, Bangkok 30th, Tokyo 53th and Beijing 55th. Hong Kong, once ranked as one of Asia’s top cities to live and work, ranked 57th.

HCM City ranked high in the Cost of Living Index (4th) and the Finance & Housing Index (5th). Nearly three out of four expats (74 per cent) rated the cost of living positively, which is 28 percentage points above the global average (46 per cent). 

“Even though the overall cost of living has increased, it is still affordable,” said an expat from Australia. In fact, about two-thirds (67 per cent) said their disposable household income was more than what they needed to cover expenses (compared to 51 per cent globally). 

In addition, housing is seen as affordable (63 per cent compared to 41 per cent globally) and easy to find as well (88 per cent compared to 55 per cent globally).

Expats said they were satisfied with their jobs in general (6th) and were pleased with the status of the city’s economy (81 per cent compared to 63 per cent globally) and their work-life-balance (72 per cent compared to 64 per cent globally). 

The city was praised for its people’s friendliness, with 79 per cent of expats rating their attitude towards foreign residents as generally friendly and sincere (compared to 66 per cent globally). 

On the downside, the city performed poorly in the Quality of Urban Living Index (55th). It ranked among the bottom 10 worldwide in the Transportation subcategory (60th), as fewer than one in four expats (24 per cent) rated its public transportation infrastructure positively (compared to 66 per cent globally). 

The city also received poor results in the Health & Environment subcategory (59th). Only 27 per cent of expats said they were happy with the city’s urban environment. According to one American expat, the southern metropolis is noisy and polluted, and there are few green spaces. 

HCM City’s ranking dropped this year, after ranking third best city for expats to live and work globally last year.

InterNations, an expat network that publishes annual rankings on the world’s best and worst countries, asked more than 15,000 expats to rank the best cities in the world to live, work and make friends in 2020. They represent 173 nationalities living in 181 countries or territories. VNS  

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China summons US envoy over sanctions, vows countermeasures (nationthailand.com)

China summons US envoy over sanctions, vows countermeasures

Dec 09. 2020

By Zhou Jin
China Daily/ANN

BEIJING – Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang on Tuesday summoned Robert W. Forden, chargé d’affaires of the United States embassy in China, to lodge stern representations over US sanctions on 14 officials of the National People’s Congress over Hong Kong issues. 

China will take reciprocal countermeasures against the US move and will take all necessary measures to defend its sovereignty, security and development interests, Zheng said.

The US sanctions seriously violated the basic norms governing international relations, interfered in China’s internal affairs, and undermined China-US relations, he said.

China expressed strong indignation and condemnation of the unreasonable and wicked move, he said.

He urged the US to immediately correct its mistakes and withdraw the decision, stop meddling in Hong Kong affairs and interfering in China’s domestic affairs, or it will fully bear serious consequences.

Also on Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying urged the United States to withdraw the “erroneous decision” of imposing sanctions on relevant officials of the National People’s Congress (NPC) over Hong Kong issues, vowing “firm and strong countermeasures” against the egregious act by the US side to defend its sovereignty, security and development interests.

“The above-mentioned move by the US side severely violates basic norms governing international relations, interferes in China’s internal affairs and harms China-US relations,” Hua said.

“The Chinese government and people express strong indignation at and strongly condemn the outrageous, unscrupulous, crazy and vile act of the US side,” she added.

The Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council expressed similar sentiments on Tuesday, calling the US sanctions “hysterical political bullying.”

The move totally violates international law and the basic norms governing international relations, said a statement by the HKMAO.

No country would turn a blind eye to actions and activities that jeopardize its national security, and no country would consent to someone who seeks to split the country, subvert state power or collude with external forces holding public office, according to the statement.

The United States itself has long established a well-enforced legal system of safeguarding national security, as well as strict laws and regulations regarding the qualification and oath-taking for its senators and representatives, it said.

Yet, the US side has blatantly slandered, interfered with and suppressed the NPC Standing Committee’s justified actions to improve the legal system supporting the principle of “one country, two systems,” and safeguard national security and the constitutional order in the HKSAR, which are in line with China’s own laws and international practice, said the statement, adding that the actions of the US side are nothing more than double standards and hegemonic logic.

The US side has repeatedly wielded the stick of sanctions, fully revealing the political agenda of some US politicians to disrupt Hong Kong, undermine the practice of “one country, two systems” and contain China’s development, it said.

The repulsive tricks of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his ilk will fade into nothing and simply will not work, the statement noted.

Every so-called sanction imposed by the US side will only strengthen the will of the Chinese people to safeguard their national security, it said, adding that such acts will not shake the Chinese government’s determination and confidence to firmly implement the principle of “one country, two systems,” nor will they stop the historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. 

With Xinhua inputs

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[South Korea] Prime minister declares all-out fight against virus spread in in Seoul, nearby areas (nationthailand.com)

[South Korea] Prime minister declares all-out fight against virus spread in in Seoul, nearby areas

Dec 09. 2020Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun presides over a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters held at the provincial government office of Gyeonggi Province in Suwon, 45 kilometers south of Seoul, on Wednesday. (Yonhap) 

By The Korea Herald/ANN

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said Wednesday that the government will concentrate “all of its capabilities” on countering the rapid spread of COVID-19 in and around Seoul.

“(The government) will focus all of its capabilities (in the greater Seoul area),” he said, stressing the significance of turning around the situations in the region where around half of South Korea’s 52-million population reside.

“The trend of COVID-19 spreading in the capital region is very serious,” he said during a government meeting of top officials in charge of dealing with the pandemic.

The meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters was held at the provincial government office of Gyeonggi Province in Suwon, 45 kilometers south of Seoul.

Since Tuesday, the government has imposed the second-toughest curbs of the five-tiered virus restriction system in Seoul and the nearby city of Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, which have experienced a rapid climb in new cases, and mid-level restrictions in the rest of the country.

Chung said the government is meticulously planning its vaccine administration program, including the selection of first recipients and the logistics of vaccines, and pledged to do the utmost to administer vaccines to the general public when needed after monitoring the situations in other countries.

President Moon Jae-in, meanwhile, plans to convene an emergency meeting later in the day to review the virus response situation in the capital region, according to Cheong Wa Dae.

The meeting is to take place at the national crisis response center at the presidential compound and attendees will include Noh Young-min, Moon’s chief of staff; Suh Hoon, director of national security; and Health Minister Park Neunghoo. Top officials from the Seoul and Incheon city governments, and the Gyeonggi provincial government will also participate in it through video link. (Yonhap)

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India buys the largest number of Covid-19 vaccine doses in the world (nationthailand.com)

India buys the largest number of Covid-19 vaccine doses in the world

Dec 09. 2020

By Rohini Mohan
The Straits Times/ANN

BANGALORE – India has bought 1.6 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines, which is more than any other country, according to a global analysis.

Using its massive manufacturing clout, the country purchased 500 million doses of the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine candidate, one billion from the American company Novavax and 100 million doses of the Sputnik V candidate from Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute, said the USA-based Duke University Global Health Innovation Centre.

India, a middle-income country, bought more doses than high-income countries such as the USA and the UK, and more than the EU as a whole, all of which have in-country vaccine development capacity.

The European Union has pre-booked 1.58 billion doses and the United States 1.01 billion doses.

Before any vaccine candidates have been approved by regulatory agencies, there are confirmed purchases for 7.3 billion vaccine doses, with another 2.5 billion doses under negotiation.

“Many of these countries will be able to vaccinate their entire populations – and some will be able to do so many times over – before billions of people are vaccinated in low-income countries,” said the Duke report.

India’s 1.6 billion doses would cover 800 million people, or 60 per cent of its population. In November, India’s Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said 400 million to 500 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines were estimated to be made available for 250 million to 300 million people in India by July-August 2021.

The Duke report explained that rich countries negotiated purchases by investing public funds into vaccine research and development, and by using their purchasing power to strike early deals. Since none of the vaccine candidates has received regulatory approval, the countries hedged their bets by purchasing multiple vaccine candidates, in case some don’t materialise.

As a middle-income country, India has been able to move to the front of the queue by using another strategy: leveraging its large manufacturing infrastructure.

“Countries with manufacturing capacity, such as India and Brazil, have been successful in negotiating large advance market commitments with leading vaccine candidates as part of the manufacturing agreements,” said the Duke report, which was compiled after government officials across the world – including Indian officials – were consulted to explain their high procurement strategy.

India is the largest manufacturer of vaccines in the world, making 60 per cent of the global vaccine supply. It is also home to the Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s biggest vaccine producer.

Of the three vaccine candidates the South Asian country has booked, SII is manufacturing two within India: the Oxford University/Astra-Zeneca vaccine and the Novavax candidate.

Of the 3.73 billion doses of the Oxford and Novavax vaccines purchased by all countries, about 3 billion would be produced by SII.

Russia’s Sputnik vaccine is also being manufactured by Dr Reddy’s Lab in Hyderabad.

India’s two domestic vaccine candidates have also received approval for entering Phase 3 of their clinical trials.

Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech and Gujarat-based Zydus-Cadila “could also add about 400 million doses annually”, said virologist Shahid Jameel, director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University, to Press Trust of India.

India’s vaccine distribution strategy is in line with the World Health Organisation’s guidance about priority groups. Accordingly, the first doses will go to frontline workers, healthcare workers, sanitation, emergency services, and security services.

Next to get vaccinated would be those with the highest risk of mortality, that is people with co-morbidities and those older than 65 years of age.