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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001815

World Bank sees strongest rebound in 80 years despite divergence

Emerging market and developing nations will continue to struggle with the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath even as a few major economies spur the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, the World Bank said.

Global gross domestic product will expand 5.6% this year, up from 4.1% forecast in January, the Washington-based development organization said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report. That will be fueled largely by a 6.8% expansion in the U.S. and 8.5% in China. The World Bank revised its historical data to reflect updated GDP weights.

Though most advanced nations are projected to return to their pre-pandemic per-capita income levels in 2022, two-thirds of emerging and developing nations are projected to remain below it. Growth in low-income countries is expected to be the second-slowest of the past 20 years at 2.9% — down from the 3.4% forecast in January, held back by lack of access to vaccines.

“It’s the tale of two recoveries,” Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank group that produced the report, said in an interview. “On the one hand, advanced economies, big countries, are delivering fast growth, record growth. On the other hand, you have these low-income countries struggling to generate growth.”

The World Bank warned of substantial uncertainty beyond 2021.

The global recovery could falter once policy support is withdrawn and pent-up demand runs out, particularly if the pandemic lingers, according to the report. Sustained inflation pressures could cause a tight sharpening in financial conditions, adding to high debt vulnerabilities.

Under these circumstances, activity in both advanced and emerging and developing economies could slow global growth to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. That would leave the recovery on par with the anemic one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

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On the other hand, the global rebound could prove stronger than expected if the surge in growth in 2021, together with faster and more equitable distribution of vaccinations worldwide, spur expansion in the private sector.

To help ensure the best outcome, policy makers should seize the moment of benign global conditions to implement overhauls that increase the resilience of financial systems, improve fiscal sustainability and create the foundations for a green, resilient and inclusive recovery, the World Bank said.

Other highlights from the report:

– While global inflation is likely to keep rising this year after a rebound in the first half of 2021, it probably will remain within target bands in most countries.

– While half of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies could see inflation above target ranges, it may be temporary and not warrant a policy response if expectations remain well-anchored.

– Due to record-high debt, emerging and developing countries remain vulnerable to financial market stress, if investor risk sentiment worsens due to actual or perceive inflation pressures in advanced economies.

– Higher global agricultural prices are likely to present inflation pressures for low-income countries in the near term, worsening food insecurity and threatening to increase poverty.

– Attempts to lower food prices through subsidies or export controls risk driving global food prices higher.

Published : June 09, 2021

By : Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Eric Martin

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001812

Stocks close near record with CPI, Fed in focus

U.S. equities closed within a hairs breadth of a record high and Treasuries rose as investors continued to debate the impact of resurgent inflation on monetary policy.

The S&P 500 ended little changed less than 6 points below its May 7 record close after fluctuating between gains and losses throughout the session. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to the lowest in a month, with focus turning toward Thursday’s consumer-price data that may offer clues on how far the Federal Reserve can postpone a tapering of stimulus.

Megacap tech stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. helped prop up the benchmark index, which has gained 13% in 2021. Biotechs were among the biggest drags on Tuesday, a day after many of them rallied after Biogen Inc. received regulatory approval for its Alzheimer’s disease drug. Bitcoin slumped to a two-week low, with some analysts pointing to the recovery of Colonial Pipeline Co.’s ransom as evidence that crypto isn’t beyond government control.

U.S. equities have traded in a relatively tight range around record highs in recent weeks as investors try to balance the economic recovery and a dovish Fed against inflation concerns, high valuations and disparities in global coronavirus vaccine rollouts. Volatility has returned to the market ahead of the CPI report and the Fed’s rate decision next Wednesday.

“You look across the board and everything is more expensive,” said Brian Walsh, Jr., senior financial adviser at Walsh & Nicholson Financial Group. “It’s something we’re watching, but the Fed has continued to say they are gong to keep interest rates at bay regardless of the inflation data that comes in. You can only take them for their word and I think that’s what investors are doing.”

Global equities also are near record highs, and Treasury yields have eased for three successive weeks. That suggests the Fed’s assurances are calming fears of Fed tightening for now. Yet on Tuesday, traders were exercising caution before the inflation data, pushing the dollar toward its first gain in three days.

“The tight trading ranges seen so far this month reflect the cautious mood in the market ahead of the inflation numbers,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “Whilst the Fed reassures that this spike in inflation is temporary, policymakers will need to be out in their droves to calm the market. Delaying action or even inaction could cause economic disruption that the markets fear.”

West Texas Intermediate crude futures reversed a loss of as much as 1.1% on Tuesday, with investors focused on the health of the U.S. market ahead of inventory data on Wednesday. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to its highest level since 2015.

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These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:03 p.m. EDT

– The Nasdaq 100 was little changed

– The Dow Jones industrial average was little changed

– The MSCI World index was little changed

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%

– The euro fell 0.1% to $1.2174

– The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.4156

– The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 109.48 per dollar

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys declined four basis points to 1.53%

– Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to -0.22%

– Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 0.77%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $70 a barrel

– Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,896 an ounce

Published : June 09, 2021

By : Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Vildana Hajric

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001806

Thai stocks hold up as Asian indices slide

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,612.88 on Tuesday, up 0.29 points or 0.02 per cent. Transactions totalled THB100.25 billion with an index high of 1,618.70 and a low of 1,605.31.

In the morning session, Krungsri Securities expected Tuesday’s index to fluctuate between 1,605 and 1,625 points amid hopes of economic recovery as mass Covid-19 vaccination gathers strength worldwide and the price of oil continues to rise.

However, it added that uncertainty over inflation and volatility in foreign fund flows would pressure the index.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, IVL, BANPU, PTTGC, PTT, ADVANC, TTA, SCC, NER and OR.

Other Asian indices were on the slide:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 28,963.56, down 55.68 points or 0.19 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,580.11, down 19.43 points or 0.54 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,716.98, down 145.62 points or 0.98 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 28,781.38, down 5.90 points or 0.020 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,247.83, down 4.29 points or 0.13 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX closed at 17,076.21, down 7.70 points or 0.045 per cent.

Published : June 08, 2021

By : The Nation

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001797

Weakening dollar pushes up price of gold in Thailand

The price of gold in Thailand rose by THB200 per baht weight in morning trade on Tuesday, due to the weakening dollar.

The Gold Traders Association report at 9.25am showed buying price of a gold bar at THB27,900 per baht weight and selling price at THB28,000, while gold ornaments were priced at THB27,394.12 and THB28,500, respectively.

At close on Monday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,700 per baht weight and selling price at THB27,800, while gold ornaments were priced at THB27,194.04 and THB28,300, respectively.

Spot gold price on Tuesday was higher at US$1,902 per ounce compared to Monday when it rose by $6.8 to $1,898.9 per ounce.

Hong Kong gold price on Tuesday rose by HK$170 to $17,590 per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

Published : June 08, 2021

By : The Nation

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001796

Volatile funds flow, inflation could rein in SET despite improved sentiment

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 3.32 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 1,615.91 at 10am on Tuesday.

Krungsri Securities said the index would fluctuate between 1,605 and 1,625 points amid hopes of an economic recovery as mass Covid-19 vaccination gathers strength worldwide and the price of oil continues to rise.

However, it predicted that uncertainty over increasing inflation and volatility in foreign funds flow would pressure the index.

It recommended that investors buy:

 PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, IVL and BANPU, which benefit from the global economic recovery.

 BCH, CHG, BDMS, MINT, CENTEL, ERW, AOT, CPALL, HMPRO, CPN and CRC, which benefit from the country’s reopening.

 KTC, OR, BEC, DCC, EGCO, JMART, KEX, PTL, PSL, RBF, RCL, SAK, STARK, TTA and TRUE, which will be listed on the FTSE Index on June 21.

The SET Index closed at 1,612.59 on Monday, up 1.06 points or 0.07 per cent. Total transactions amounted to THB88.49 billion with an index high of 1,625.56 and a low of 1,611.78.

Published : June 08, 2021

By : The Nation

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001777

Most U.S. stocks fall amid inflation, tax concerns

Most U.S. equities declined and Treasury yields rose as investors weighed inflation risks and the potential impact of a minimum corporate tax that could enable foreign governments to impose levies on big American companies.

The S&P 500 fell, after earlier climbing toward an all-time high, with decliners outnumbering gainers by about 2-to-1. The Dow Jones industrial average also fell, with 20 of its 30 members closing lower. The Nasdaq 100 turned higher as Biogen Inc. surged after its Alzheimer’s drug was approved, lifting other biotech stocks as well. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose from the lowest since late April after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday a slightly higher interest-rate environment would be a plus.

The pullback in equities comes as recent data, including Friday’s jobs report, seemed to vindicate the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on monetary policy. Investors are trying to strike a balance between the potential for higher interest rates and not missing out on a rally driven largely by massive government stimulus. The U.S. consumer price index report due Thursday will be one of the last major economic indicators released before the Fed’s rate decision later this month.

“Though the jobs numbers were a bit of a mixed bag, they suggested solid progress but room for improvement, which could temper action on behalf of the Fed,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing product at E*Trade Financial. “As we hover around record highs, keep in mind that it’s normal for the market to take a bit of a breather as we kick off the week.”

Yellen said President Joe Biden should push forward with his spending plans even if they spark inflation that persists into next year. Meanwhile, the Group of Seven rich nations secured a landmark deal that could help countries collect more taxes from big firms and enable governments to impose levies on U.S. giants such as Amazon and Facebook.

Biogen Inc. rose the most since November after it received approval for its controversial Alzheimer’s disease therapy. Competitors including Eli Lilly & Co. and AC Immune SA also rallied, helping push the Nasdaq Biotech Index toward the highest since late April. Tesla Inc. staged a late-day rebound, closing higher after earlier slumping on news that the electric-car maker had called off plans to build a longer-range version of its high-end sedan.

The Russell 2000 Index rose for the third straight session on Monday, though it remained more than 1.5% below its June all-time high. European stocks advanced, with carmakers and consumer-products companies outperforming.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

–The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:03 p.m. EDT

– The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.4%

– The MSCI World index rose 0.1%

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%

– The euro rose 0.2% to $1.2192

– The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.4181

– The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 109.26 per dollar

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys advanced two basis points to 1.57%

– Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to -0.20%

– Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 0.81%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $69 a barrel

– Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,903 an ounce

Published : June 08, 2021

By : Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40001776

Feds recovers millions in ransomware payments from Colonial Pipeline hackers

WASHINGTON – Federal authorities have recovered more than $2 million in cryptocurrency paid in ransom to foreign hackers whose attack last month led to the shutdown of a major pipeline that provides nearly half the East Coasts fuel, according to officials.

The seizure of funds paid by Colonial Pipeline to a Russian hacker ring, DarkSide, marks the first recovery by a new ransomware Justice Department task force. It follows a string of cyber attacks that panicked consumers and led President Joe Biden to warn Russia that it needed to take “decisive action” against the criminal networks.

“The sophisticated use of technology to hold businesses and even whole cities hostage for profit is decidedly a 21st century challenge,” Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said, announcing the recovery on Monday afternoon. “But the old adage, follow the money still applies.”

“Today we turned the tables on DarkSide,” she said.

The ransomware attack on Colonial in early May prompted the company to shut its pipeline operation for 11 days, causing panic buying that resulted in gasoline shortages in much of the southeastern U.S. The hackers locked up Colonial’s business computer networks by encrypting data on them, and demanded millions of dollars in ransom to unlock the system.

Victims worldwide paid at least $412 million in ransom last year, according to Chainalysis, a firm that tracks cryptocurrency payments. They noted that is a conservative analysis, since many victims do not report their ransom payments.

The problem has become so acute that Biden will raise it when he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva this month. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Monday that the subject also will be raised during the president’s meeting with the leaders of Group of Seven nations in Britain a few days before the Geneva summit.

Sullivan said he would like the G-7 to come up with an “action plan” to increase resilience to attacks and deal with the cryptocurrency challenge. Cryptocurrency, which allows users to mask their identities, “lies at the core of how these ransom transactions are played out,” he said.

As a result, ransomware attacks have become a matter of national security and economic security, officials said.

Having obtained a warrant granted from a federal judge in the Northern District of California, the FBI on Monday seized proceeds from a digital “wallet” that held the ransom collected by the hackers, FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate said. The ransom was paid in bitcoin, a form of cryptocurrency.

The warrant authorized seizure of 63.7 bitcoin, or $2.3 million at the current exchange rate.

The bureau obtained the “private key” for the wallet address, according to an affidavit for the warrant. The key is basically a password that enabled the FBI to move bitcoin out of the wallet.

Officials did not explain how the FBI got the key.

The hackers demanded and were paid a ransom of 75 bitcoin on May 8, according to the affidavit. On that date, the value of bitcoin was higher – worth about $4.3 million.

Colonial Pipeline CEO Joseph Blount told The Wall Street Journal last month that the firm paid the ransom. “I know that’s a highly controversial decision,” he said. ” . . . But it was the right thing to do for the country.”

On Monday, Blount issued a statement praising the FBI.

“We are grateful for their swift work and professionalism in responding to this event,” he said. “Holding cyber criminals accountable and disrupting the ecosystem that allows them to operate is the best way to deter and defend against future attacks of this nature.”

Blount said that when Colonial was hit by the cyber attack, it contacted the FBI field offices in Atlanta and San Francisco, as well as prosecutors in Northern California and D.C.

DarkSide operates under a ransomware-as-a-service model in which it provides the malware that a criminal affiliate can use to lock up data on a victim’s computer system. When the victim pays the ransom to free up the system, the affiliate keeps a majority of the payment, while DarkSide gets the rest.

In this case, about 85% of the payment was to have gone to DarkSide’s affiliate, said Tom Robinson, co-founder of Elliptic, a cryptocurrency analytics firm. Elliptic spotted the wallet suspected of holding Colonial’s ransom payment on May 14.

The 63.7 bitcoin were the affiliate’s share, Robinson said. It is not clear who has the rest of the proceeds, he said.

On May 13, DarkSide announced it was suspending its operation, that its servers had been “blocked” and funds from a payment server had been moved to “an unknown account.”

Those funds are still in that wallet, said Robinson, whose firm tracks cryptocurrency payments on a public digital ledger known as a “blockchain.” The ledger does not contain information identifying who controls the wallet.

The FBI has traditionally advised victims not to pay the ransom on the grounds that doing so fuels criminal enterprise. The Biden administration is in the process of determining what the government’s formal ransomware policy should be, a senior administration official told The Washington Post last week.

“The message we are sending today is that if you come forward and work with law enforcement, we may be able to take that type of action that we took today to deprive the criminal actors of what they’re going after here, which is the proceeds of their criminal scheme,” Monaco said. She added, however, “we cannot guarantee and we may not be able to do this in every instance.”

DarkSide collected $14 million in ransoms for all of 2020, according to Chainanalysis. Before it announced it had lost access to its servers, it raked in $46 million in just the first three months of this year.

The Justice Department in April created a ransomware and digital extortion task force. Its mission, officials said, is to investigate, disrupt and prosecute ransomware and digital extortion activity.

Published : June 08, 2021

By : The Washington Post · Ellen Nakashima