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Stocks pare drop on stopgap bill amid aid deadlock (nationthailand.com)

Stocks pare drop on stopgap bill amid aid deadlock

EconDec 12. 2020A Wall Street sign. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Mark Kauzlarich. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita NazarethStocks pared losses as lawmakers passed a stopgap spending bill to avert a federal-government shutdown, but gave no signals of an imminent stimulus deal.

In a volatile session, the S&P 500 quickly trimmed a slide that reached about 1% earlier Friday. The equity benchmark still notched its worst weekly decline since October amid an impasse over a relief package and concern over tougher restrictions as coronavirus cases swept across the nation. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed as giants Facebook Inc. and Tesla Inc. slumped more than 1.2%. The Dow Jones industrial average advanced as Walt Disney Co. soared to an all-time high after a bold forecast for its new streaming services.

With the clock ticking down on stimulus as lawmakers approach their year-end break, bipartisan talks are hung up on differences between Republicans and Democrats on shielding companies from virus-related lawsuits. While both sides are closer than ever to agreeing on a price tag — coalescing around a $900 billion figure — there’s no sign they can get a deal anytime soon. In the meantime, the U.S. appears poised to cross 300,000 covid-19 deaths in the next week, a sign of the unprecedented gravity of the pandemic as states prepare for their first vaccinations.

“It’s essential that Congress puts aside differences and finds agreement on a stimulus program before the end of the year,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “Lawmakers are running out of time.”

Earnings estimates for the next two years make U.S. stocks look more costly in historical terms than just one year’s worth of projections, or even past results.

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 26 times earnings, using a gauge that takes estimates for the longer time period into account. That’s close to the Sept. 2 ratio of 27.2, the highest since data compiled by Bloomberg starts in 1990. This indicator was cited by Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP, in a presentation Tuesday. The benchmark hasn’t set a similar high relative to the past year’s earnings or next year’s estimates.

Elsewhere, the pound fell after Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both warned that a no-deal Brexit is looming on Dec. 31 as they continued last-ditch talks to try to reach a deal before Sunday.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. EST.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.8%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2%.

– The euro fell 0.2% to $1.2115.

– The British pound declined 0.6% to $1.322.

– The Japanese yen appreciated 0.2% to 104.02 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 0.89%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield dipped three basis points to -0.64%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 0.172%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.4% to $46.58 a barrel.

– Gold rose 0.1% to $1,838.45 an ounce.

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Excise Dept eyes benefits to promote use of electric vehicles (nationthailand.com)

Excise Dept eyes benefits to promote use of electric vehicles

EconDec 11. 2020Director-general Lavaron Sangsnit 

By The Nation

The Excise Department is looking for ways to overhaul the entire vehicle excise system with the aim of using tax incentives to promote the wider use of electric vehicles (EVs), director-general Lavaron Sangsnit said.

The levy on EVs is 8 per cent, while that on EVs produced under the Board of Investment’s tax support was cut to 0 per cent from 2 per cent as of January 2020 to December 31, 2022.

Krisda Utamote, president of the Electrical Vehicle Association of Thailand, said that apart from supporting EV makers, the government should offer benefits to users, such as offering free charging and promoting large-scale chargers.

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Stocks mixed amid stimulus stalemate, tech rally (nationthailand.com)

Stocks mixed amid stimulus stalemate, tech rally

EconDec 11. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Kamaron Leach

Stocks were mixed as traders assessed prospects for fresh stimulus amid the most-intense negotiations since Election Day.

The S&P 500 came off session lows, but closed down for a second day. The Nasdaq 100 climbed while the Dow Jones industrial average underperformed. Airbnb Inc. more than doubled in its trading debut. Treasuries gained after a strong 30-year bond auction dispelled concerns that this week’s debt sales could prove too large to be palatable for investors. The pound slid as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Britain should prepare to leave the European Union’s single market without a trade deal.

The fate of an additional relief package remains unresolved as Democrats and Republicans continue to negotiate. If a deal isn’t reached by the end of 2020, millions of Americans could start the new year with lapsed unemployment benefits. A bipartisan group of lawmakers agreed on a needs-based formula to distribute their proposed state and local aid, according to an aide to one of the senators. But negotiations continue to be bogged down by differences over shielding employers from liability for covid-19 infections. Earlier Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., cited progress toward an agreement.

“We’re just kind of waiting on a deal,” said Keith Gangl, a portfolio manager of Gradient Investments. “I wouldn’t expect the market to do a whole lot one way or the other going into year-end from here,” he noted, “especially if the stimulus package keeps getting pushed out.”

Elsewhere, the euro rose after policymakers escalated their efforts to shield the region from a possible double-dip recession with another burst of monetary stimulus, while cautioning that it may not use up all the new firepower.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. EST.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.4%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.

– The euro rose 0.4% to $1.213.

– The British pound decreased 0.8% to $1.3287.

– The Japanese yen was little changed at 104.25 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasuries decreased two basis points to 0.92%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield rose less than one basis point to -0.60%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield dipped six basis points to 0.201%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 2.9% to $46.86 a barrel.

– Gold fell 0.3% to $1,834.80 an ounce.

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International trade promotion department makes plans to boost Thai exports in 2021 (nationthailand.com)

International trade promotion department makes plans to boost Thai exports in 2021

EconDec 11. 2020The department’s director general Somdet Susomboon 

By The Nation

The Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) has outlined plans to boost export next year with a focus on online trade promotion activities, the department’s director general Somdet Susomboon said.

It will arrange an online business match-making every week or 22 activities in the first half of 2021, focusing on products in the categories of health care, auto parts, spa, furniture and jewellery. In the second quarter, it plans to cover the categories of mothers and children, pet food, food and beverage, rubber and medical devices.

DITP will also bring Thai exporters to international expositions ranging from Tokyo International Gift Show to Gulfood in the Middle East, and will also join with foreign department stores and importers to promote Thai products.

In addition, DITP plans to promote the promote the export of palm oil to India in a bid to cash in on India’s reduction of import tariff on crude palm oil to 27.5 per cent from 37.5 per cent to cater to domestic consumption.

India is among the world’s largest importers of palm oil, accounting for US$3.22 billion worth of palm oil import between January and September this year, up 31.61 per cent year on year. Indonesia provided 69.61 per cent of the palm oil in India, followed by 24.53 per cent from Malaysia, 3.72 per cent from Singapore and 1.93 per cent worth $62.17 million from Thailand. Palm oil export from Thailand to India fell 28.64 per cent from the same period last year.

Somdet believes the reduction in import tariff in India should offer Thai exporters an opportunity to enter the country.

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Thai economy to grow 4% next year, 1 point lower than Asean average: ADB (nationthailand.com)

Thai economy to grow 4% next year, 1 point lower than Asean average: ADB

EconDec 10. 2020

By The Nation

The Thai economy will grow 4 per cent next year – more than 1 percentage point lower than Southeast Asia’s average, according to the latest forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

On Thursday, the bank downgraded the Asean region’s outlook for 2021, with Southeast Asia now expected to grow 5.2 per cent next year compared to 5.5 per cent forecast in September. 

The ADB also downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast for Southeast Asia to -4.4 per cent from -3.8 per cent in September. It projects the Thai economy this year will contract 7.8 per cent, down sharply from 2.4 per cent growth last year. 

The ADB’s 2020 GDP forecast for developing Asia is raised to -0.4 per cent, with 6.8 per cent growth expected in 2021 as the region continues to recover from the Covid-19 crisis. 

The new 2020 GDP forecast, published in a supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update, is an improvement from the -0.7 per cent forecast in September, while the outlook for 2021 remains unchanged.

However, prospects are diverging within the region, with East Asia set to grow this year while subregions including Southeast Asia contract.

East Asia is the exception, with an upgraded growth forecast of 1.6 per cent for 2020 on the back of faster than expected recoveries in China and Taiwan. East Asia’s growth outlook for 2021 is maintained at 7 per cent.

South Asia’s GDP is forecast to contract by 6.1 per cent in 2020, revised up from the 6.8 per cent contraction expected in September. Growth in South Asia is forecast to rebound to 7.2 per cent in 2021. The growth forecast for India, the subregion’s largest economy, for fiscal year 2020 is raised to -8 per cent, from the -9 per cent projection in September, while outlook for 2021 is kept at 8 per cent.

“The outlook for developing Asia is showing improvement. Growth projections have been upgraded for [China] and India, the region’s two largest economies,” said ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “A prolonged pandemic remains the primary risk, but recent developments on the vaccine front are tempering this. Safe, effective, and timely vaccine delivery in developing economies will be critical to support the reopening of economies and the recovery of growth in the region.”

Exports are rebounding quickly from substantial declines in the second quarter, said the bank. Mobility is also returning to pre-pandemic levels in East Asia and the Pacific, though recovery in tourism is likely to be delayed, it added.

The outlook for the Pacific is unchanged for both 2020 and 2021 at -6.1 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Central Asia’s growth forecast for 2020 remains at -2.1 per cent, but the outlook for 2021 is slightly downgraded to 3.8 per cent from the 3.9 per cent growth projected in September.

Asian inflation is expected to marginally ease to 2.8 per cent in 2020, from the 2.9 per cent projected in September, due to depressed demand and low oil prices. Inflation for 2021 is forecast at 1.9 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent forecast in September. Oil prices are retained at $42.5 per barrel in 2020 before increasing to $50 per barrel in 2021.