#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold may rise to $2,000 by year end, expert says

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

Gold price faces short term correction but has the chance of hitting US$2,000 again at the end of this year, an expert at YLG Bullion International (YLG) said on Friday (September 25).

The price of the precious metal dropped by over $100 per ounce from $1,950 to $1,850 over four days from Monday.

Pawan Navawattanasap, YLG’s chief executive officer, said the price of gold had dropped sharply at the beginning of this week due to investors’ mass sell-offs to take profits after several mutual funds boosted their investment in the precious metal.

She said the price at the beginning of this year was $1,517 per ounce and hit the highest at $2,075 per ounce, generating profits of over 22.5 per cent, which is higher than returns from other assets.

“Normally, investors know that the price of gold rises when stock prices fall, but this year it is completely different because mutual funds increased their investment in the precious metal. This caused mass sell-offs in gold because mutual funds often take profit from the metal to compensate for the fall in stock price,” she said.

She added that many analysts expected the gold price to hit $2,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of this year as demand for the precious metal in India and China often rises during this time, adding that the price of gold is expected to hit $2,200 per ounce next year.

“Factors that boost the price of gold are central banks’ relaxed monetary policies, governments’ moves to stimulate the economy and the US-China conflict, while factors that pressure the metal price are Covid-19 vaccine development progress, signs of the US economic recovery and mass sell-offs to compensate for loss in other assets,” she added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SCG Packaging’s IPO expected to shake up the market

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

An analyst at Asia Plus Securities expects institutional investors to sell stocks worth Bt23 billion to buy SCG Packaging (SCGP) shares, resulting in market volatility.

SCGP will make an initial public offering (IPO) of up to Bt1.12 billion with shares priced between Bt33.50 and Bt35 from September 28 to October 7. Meanwhile, cornerstone investors and initial purchasers will make payments for buying shares from October 9 to 14.

The analyst reckoned that institutional investors will sell off their stocks before SCGP is listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The 18 institutional investors, comprising 14 Thai asset management companies and four overseas asset management companies, have the right to subscribe to 676.53 million shares worth Bt23.7 billion.

“According to previous statistics, SET50 will fall up to 6 per cent in one month before large-cap stocks start making transactions in the stock market, while the price of stocks in the same group will drop by up to 10 per cent,” he said.

“Over the past three days, the largest petrochemical stock price dropped sharply after SCGP announced it was selling IPO shares.”

Since SCGP is a large-cap stock with a market capitalisation of around Bt150 billion and has the chance of being listed in SET50 or SET100 instantly, the analyst expects Thanachart Capital (TACP) with a market capitalisation of Bt35 billion to be delisted from SET50 or the Erawan Group (ERW) with a market capitalisation of Bt80 billion delisted from SET100.

“The securities company expects SCGP’s revenue this year to be at Bt6.99 billion, up 32.8 per cent year on year, while the company’s profit is expected to be Bt8.33 billion, up 19.1 per cent year on year,” he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Investors advised against large-cap stocks as SET to be on a downhill slope

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

Experts are advising investors to avoid large-cap stocks as Thailand’s stock crisis will be a prolonged one.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Thursday (September 24) closed at its lowest for the day at 1,241.52, down 22.49 per cent compared to its previous close.

The index has fallen over 15 per cent from its highest point at 1,454 points in June this year,

Dr Niwet Hemwachirawarakorn, a well-known high-value investor, said investors have realised that the current situation is not beneficial for the stock market, because the Covid-19 outbreak has not been resolved and the economic forecast is gloomy.

“Most investors, especially foreigners have given up on the current situation and sold their stocks. This crisis is similar to previous crises when stock indices fluctuated at the beginning and then fell sharply after investors realised that the crisis was worse than expected. Hence, it is difficult to see a V-shaped recovery, while share prices will fluctuate up to three times,” he said.

He added that it was tough to tell when the index will rise again because the current economic direction is difficult to predict, especially in relation to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the market is expected to remain under pressure until the crisis is over.

“Long-term investors should wait because the crisis is not over yet. The economy will truly recover once the Covid-19 crisis is resolved and people were allowed to travel around the world freely,” he said.

He advised investors to buy shares that are still able to operate business for long-term investment instead of large-cap stocks that rely on economic recovery or are attractive to foreign and institutional investors.

Meanwhile, Nuttachart Mekmasin, assistant managing director at Trinity Securities, said the Bank of Thailand’s move to cut the country’s gross domestic product forecast in 2021, especially in tourism and domestic consumption, will pressure the market in the short term.

He said there were only export stocks that performed better than other groups, adding that export is expected to contract 8 per cent this year from the previous forecast of a 10 per cent contraction, though it is expected to rise to 5 per cent next year from economic recovery and weakening baht.

“We advise investors to hold cash when the SET uptick rule expires because we expect the index to fall to 1,200 points. They should avoid buying large-cap stocks until the index falls below 1,200. Large-cap stocks expected to recover are energy, petrochemical, bank and property groups,” he said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

AOT extends relief to airlines, operators until 2022

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

Airports of Thailand (AOT) is providing discounts and fee suspension until March 2022 to airlines and operators using its facilities, as it does see air travel business recovering until 2021.

AOT president Nitinai Sirismatthakarn said after a board meeting on Wednesday that AOT would provide relief to six airline operators by suspending rental space fee, building usage fee and monthly payments until March 31, 2022.

“A Covid-19 vaccine is not expected to be released and widely available before April-November 2021, which means the winter 2021 flight schedule (October 2021 to March 2022) will not return to normal operations. The flight schedule would usually be decided around April 2021, therefore, the aviation industry will not return to normal in time for the winter flight schedule, as a result AOT is considering helping the operators,” said Nitinai.

Operators and airlines who continue to use AOT facilities will receive a 50 per cent reduction in rental fee for all tenants until March 31, 2022, service fee collection for building usage will be slashed by 50 per cent, parking charges will be waived, 50 per cent discount on landing charges and parking charges for airlines that still operate will be at 50 per cent for all routes, domestic, international or charter flights, until March 21, 2022, effective from September 23, Nitinai said.

AOT assesses that such measures would reduce its revenue in fiscal year 2021 by an additional 0.143 per cent from previously forecast, down from the fiscal year 2020 by 42.21 per cent, Nitinai said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET bounces back, but likely to be pressured by political situation

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 6.28 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 1,253.74 in the morning session on Friday (September 25).

An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,240 and 1,255 despite the rise in other regional stock markets.

“Domestic political unrest after Parliament passed a resolution to establish a committee to study amendments to the Constitution, as well as foreign funds continuing to flow out from the market would pressure the index,” he said.

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎Stocks whose third-quarter performance will improve, such as TU, ASIAN, COM7, CHG, PTG and PLANB.

▪︎Stocks that will benefit from the weakening baht, such as DELTA, HANA, KCE and SMT.

▪︎Stocks that will benefit from the rising Baltic Dry Index, such as TTA and PSL.

The SET Index on Thursday fell sharply by 16.55 points, or 1.31 per cent, closing at 1,247. Total transactions amounted to Bt56 billion due to uncertainty over the delay in rollout of US economic stimulus measures and the second Covid-19 wave in European countries.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold price rises after falling for three consecutive days

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade on Friday (September 25), the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.25am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,750 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,850, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,257.68 and Bt28,350, respectively.

At close on Thursday (September 24), the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,650 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,750 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,151.56 and Bt28,250, respectively.

Spot gold price moved to US$1,867 (Bt58,826.65) per ounce on Friday morning after the price rose by $8.5 to $1,876.9 per ounce at Thursday’s close.

Gold price gained positive sentiment from investors’ buying spree after the price dropped for three consecutive days. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened due to the rise in US jobless claims.

Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$90, after opening at $17,260 (Bt70,170.08) per tael on Friday morning, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Stocks whipsaw as traders weigh odds of stimulus

EconSep 25. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS 
Stocks whipsawed as investors weighed the chances of a compromise on a new stimulus package amid concern over an uptick in global coronavirus cases. The dollar fell.

The S&P 500 pared most of its earlier rally after optimism faded that Congress would reach a spending deal with the White House. Stocks surged midday on news that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Democratic House leader were open to fresh talks. But a report that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s fresh overture deviated only slightly from previous offers sparked concern that the two sides would remain far apart. The stock gauge still closed above a key support level: Its average price of the past 100 days.

House Democrats have started drafting a stimulus proposal of roughly $2.4 trillion, according to multiple officials. While smaller than the $3.4 trillion package the House passed in May, the new proposal remains much larger than what Senate Republicans have said they could accept. President Donald Trump has indicated he’d be willing to go as high as $1.5 trillion.

“The odds of Phase 4 stimulus are a close call,” wrote Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “While still possible, there is a high risk that it does not happen this year. Without it, we would expect the economy to hit a major speed bump in Q4.”

The risk of a slowdown in the economic recovery has risen with the lack of another stimulus package, prompting Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists to cut their forecast for U.S. growth in the fourth quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that “it’s likely that additional fiscal support will be needed,” while Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the economy may be close to a “full recovery” by year-end.

High-frequency data that tracks economic activity show a slowdown in the recovery from the height of the lockdowns, with Americans again cutting back on flights and going out to eat less often. As Europe reemerged as a hot spot for Covid-19, the U.K. reported the highest number of new cases in a single day since the start of the pandemic, while France’s new infections jumped to a record.

Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers vowed that the presidential transition after November’s election will occur without disruption, in a rebuke to President Donald Trump’s refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

–The S&P 500 advanced 0.3% at 4 p.m. EDT.

–The Stoxx Europe 600 Index decreased 1%.

–The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.8%.

Currencies

–The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.1%.

–The euro climbed 0.1% to $1.1673.

–The Japanese yen was little changed at 105.41 per dollar.

Bonds

–The yield on 10-year Treasurys dipped one basis point to 0.66%.

–Germany’s 10-year yield climbed less than one basis point to -0.50%.

–Britain’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to 0.219%.

Commodities

–West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.7% to $40.22 a barrel.

–Gold strengthened 0.4% to $1,870.16 an ounce.

–Silver strengthened 2.1% to $23.25 per ounce.