#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Covid-19 second wave leads to surge in demand for safe-haven assets

Econ

Jun 20. 2020

By The Nation

Investors are likely to shift from risk assets to safe-haven assets due to uncertainty following the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic, experts said.

The baht this week moved between 30.94 and 31.24 against the dollar.

The dollar strengthened due to uncertainty following rising Covid-19 cases in the US and China, pushing up demand for the dollar and yen, which are low-risk currencies.

A currency analyst at CIMB Thai Bank expected the baht next week to move at between 30.80 and 31.30 against the dollar.

“We advise investors to follow the Covid-19 impact on the economy and the results of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee [MPC] meeting on June 24,” the analyst said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Friday (June 19) closed at 1,370.82, down 2.16 points or 0.16 per cent, while transactions totalled Bt63.320 billion.

A stock analyst at Capital Nomura Securities expected the index next week to fluctuate between 1,330 and 1,404 due to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s move to order commercial banks and non-banking entities to cut the interest rates they charge for credit cards, personal credit and hire purchase.

“We advise investors to follow the MPC’s meeting on June 24 whether the interest rate will be adjusted or not,” the analyst said.

The price of gold stood at US$1,729 per ounce, while the price in Thailand stood at Bt25,400 per baht weight.

A gold stock analyst at YLG Bullion International said that tensions between the US and China had led to increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

“We advise investors who are able to take risks to buy gold when the price drops to the support line between $1,712 and $1,717 per ounce,” the analyst said. “Investors can sell some gold to take profit when the price is unable to rise over the resistance line between $1,735 and $1,737 per ounce.”

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

FTI comes up with ideas to boost economy

Econ

Jun 20. 2020FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree, left, with PM Prayut Chan-o-cha. (Photo credit: Royal Thai Government)

By THE NATION

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) submitted a proposal to boost the subdued economy to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Friday (June 19).

Prayut had called on the FTI to make proposals as part of his announcement last week that every party would be given an opportunity to hand in their ideas for driving the country towards a better future.

FTI has proposed that the first step would be to allow the joint public-private committee tasked with solving economic problems to meet, FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree said, pointing out that it has been a long time since the committee last convened. He added that the committee should hold a meeting next month.

The federation also proposed that its members deploy technology to help farmers reduce their production costs by Bt1,500 per rai. It plans to pilot this scheme on 2 million rai of land.

It will also promote “made-in-Thailand” concept as part of the national agenda as well as campaign for the country to become a regional centre for ethanol production.

FTI has also proposed that the government waive corporate income tax for the 2019-2021 fiscal years for small and medium-sized enterprises. Almost all types of withholding tax for the current 2020 fiscal year should also be cut to a flat rate of 1.5 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

BOT orders commercial banks to hold off on interim dividends, bans share buy back

Econ

Jun 20. 2020BOT governor Veerathai Santiprabhob/ File photo

By The Nation

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has told commercial banks to strengthen their capital ratio in response to the Covid-19 fallout and banned them from paying interim dividends for this year or buying back bank shares.

BOT governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said on Friday (June 19) that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has been deep and widespread, affecting both consumers and businesses. The situation at present is highly uncertain and this may have an impact on the quality of commercial banks’ assets.

“Hence, the Bank of Thailand is telling commercial banks to come up with a plan on their capital ratio for the next one to three years, by taking into account economic trends and the potential of debtors to run their businesses in the post-Covid era,” he said in a statement released on Friday.

During this period, banks have been told to not pay interim dividends for 2020 or buy back banks’ shares. These actions aim to strengthen the bank’s capital, allowing them to continue doing business continually. The actions are in line with steps taken by other central banks to stem risks from uncertainty created by the pandemic, he added. 

Meanwhile, Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director at Phatra Securities, told the Nation that the BOT statement reflects belief that risks from the impact of Covid-19 will rise. 

“Before novel coronavirus arrived, Thai banks were resilient with a solid capital base, but now we don’t know for sure. So far, we don’t know the reality of bad debts, as many debtors are being given the option of delaying their debt payments,” he said. 

Bank profit is inflated by practice, so the central bank insisting that interim dividend not be paid is reasonable. The order prohibiting the buying back of share aims to prevent banks from circumventing the no-dividend payment order, he said. 

The central bank’s latest measures are expected to have a seriously adverse impact on bank shares in Monday’s trading, after banks have already been hit by the contraction of the economy. 

According to Phatra Security’s forecast, the Thai economy will fall by 9 per cent this year, and unemployment hit 10 per cent. 

“We are pessimistic about the economic outlook as tourists have almost all gone, while consumption, investment and exports are all being impacted by the outbreak,” he said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

EXIM Bank helps buffer impact of Covid-19 for exporters

Econ

Jun 20. 2020

Pisit Serewiwattana

By THE NATION

Customers of the Export-Import Bank of Thailand have started seeing a delay in payments from importers, who are suffering from the Covid-19 fallout, the bank’s president Pisit Serewiwattana said.

The outbreak has disrupted the receiving of orders by importers and the distribution of goods.

The bank is helping ease its clients’ financial problems by extending the period of export guarantee and debt suspension.

He suggested that exporters purchase export credit insurance facilities against the risk of non-payment by importers. He also said that subscribing to the insurance will help cover exporters’ costs and ensure they get payment from their regular foreign customers.

He added that despite the outbreak, the bank’s export credit lending has continued growing, with up to Bt20 billion given in loans since the beginning of the year. This has increased its outstanding loans to Bt130 billion.

He said he expects new loans worth another Bt15 billion in the second half.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Oil’s rise above $40 comes as demand recovers, shale reawakens

Econ

Jun 19. 2020Oil tankers are seen anchored in the Pacific Ocean above Long Beach, Calif., on May 1, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Patrick T. Fallon.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Hailey Waller · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

Oil eclipsed $40 a barrel in New York on Friday, extending a slow but relentless rise that’s been fueled by a pick-up in demand and could signal a reawakening for U.S. shale production.

Two of the world’s biggest commodity trading houses, Vitol Group and Trafigura Group, said global oil demand is recovering at a rapid pace this month, while Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said he sees encouraging signs of a consumption recovery.

The rally allows the industry some breathing room on its high debt burden, giving confidence to lenders and investors as U.S. shale seeks to rebuild after the worst price collapse in a generation. But with producers planning to turn on the taps once again, it could also be short-lived.

“To a certain degree producers will come back,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “It’s not the sweet spot by any stretch of the imagination,” he added, but “people will come back.”

U.S. producer Continental Resources Inc. said this week it will start bringing back some of its shut-in oil production next month following EOG Resources Inc.’s pledge to accelerate output in the second half of the year.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices for 2021 have traded above $40 for much of this week, a level that could entice producers to hedge their output.

Timespreads are also showing strength. Brent crude’s prompt spread is rallying after settling in backwardation — a bullish indicator that points to tighter supply conditions — on Thursday for the first time since early March. WTI’s front-month spread also rose Friday.

OPEC’s deal with allies including Russia to curb production has also helped spur the price recovery. Even OPEC’s habitual quota cheat, Iraq, said it will implement its cuts in full this month. UBS Group AG said it expects an under-supplied market in the second half of this year and in 2021.

OPEC+ is “on the right track” to re-balance the global oil market but still has “a long way to go,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Thursday at the group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. He said the next two weeks will be “critical” for OPEC+ to demonstrate all countries are adhering to the cuts.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil production has a ways to go to regain the momentum it had earlier this year when output topped 13 million barrels a day. Data from the Energy Information Administration this week showed output declined for an eleventh straight week to just above 10 million barrels a day last week.

Though the outlook for crude has brightened in recent days, a potential resurgence of the virus is clouding the long-term outlook. Traffic in Beijing has plunged as authorities battle a fresh outbreak, while some U.S. states are still seeing cases surge.

Crude also got a boost Friday from equity markets in Europe and the U.S., which gained following the latest breakthrough in trade negotiations between America and China and stimulus talks in Europe. Crude has been embroiled in equity-market sentiment for much of this week.

“Oil prices find a lot of support in line with equity markets,” said ABN Amro’s senior energy economist, Hans van Cleef. “Risk-on mode is supportive for commodities.”

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

China to accelerate U.S. farm purchases after Hawaii talks

Econ

Jun 19. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · No Author · BUSINESS 
China plans to accelerate purchases of American farm goods to comply with the phase one trade deal with the U.S. following talks in Hawaii this week.

The world’s top soybean importer intends to step up buying of everything from soybeans to corn and ethanol after purchases fell behind due to coronavirus disruptions, said two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information is private.

A separate person said the Chinese government has asked state-owned agricultural buyers to make all efforts to meet the phase one agreement. Nobody from the commerce ministry responded to a fax seeking comment.

The plan offers respite to markets concerned about trade disruptions after the countries exchanged blows over everything from the origins of the coronavirus to new security legislation in Hong Kong. U.S. equity futures, the Euro Stoxx 50, soybeans in Chicago and the yuan extended gains.

On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said China’s top foreign policy official committed to honor all of his nation’s commitments under the trade deal.

“During my meeting with CCP Politburo Member Yang Jiechi, he recommitted to completing and honoring all of the obligations of Phase 1 of the trade deal between our two countries,” Pompeo said in a tweet on Thursday, using an acronym for the Chinese Communist Party.

Pompeo offered no details beyond the tweet, but that was the first substantive news out of the secretive meeting with Yang at Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii on Wednesday. It’s still unclear how the meeting came about or who had asked for it. Both sides have said the other initiated it.

China pledged to buy $36.5 billion worth of American agriculture products under the phase one deal, up from $24 billion in 2017, before the trade war.

However, China purchased only $4.65 billion in the first four months of the year, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show. That’s only 13% of the goal set in the trade deal and almost 40% below the same period in 2017.

China had asked state buyers to halt some purchases of American farm goods including soy, Bloomberg News reported earlier this month. However, Chinese importers had continued to increase its American soy purchases, picking up 2.2 million metric tons of the oilseed in the two weeks ended June 11, according to the USDA data.