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Oil drops below $38 on surging virus, close U.S. vote count

EconNov 07. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Ann Koh, Alex Longley · BUSINESS

Oil fell a second day, dropping below $38 a barrel in New York, as a surging coronavirus and uncertain U.S. elections weighed on sentiment.

Futures dropped 2.2%, with equity markets also lower as investors took risk off the market. Joe Biden appeared to be on the brink of victory in the presidential race — amid increasing numbers of legal complaints from incumbent Donald Trump — but he may have to deal with a split Congress. Mounting coronavirus cases, with America becoming the first country to top 100,000 cases in a day, are also dragging oil lower.

Crude is ending a rough week with a decline, after gains in the first few days, as the demand outlook turns more grim. Refineries across the U.S. and Europe have shut as a result of the pandemic and traders continue to brace for high volatility. Even though Asia is a bright spot, the OPEC+ group is considering whether to postpone a production increase scheduled for next year to prevent a market glut.

“There is a definite negative sentiment in Europe and around the world at the moment, due to the restored lockdowns that are mushrooming across countries and regions,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy.

With the market continuing to wrestle with abundant stockpiles, the world’s largest independent provider of oil storage said it has no space for hire at key fuel trading locations. Royal Vopak NV’s total occupancy rate was the highest its been for any three-month period since the start of 2019.

And with a glut of stored products across the world, refiners continue to struggle. Royal Dutch Shell PLC said it will shut its 211,000 barrel-a-day Convent facility in Louisiana as part of the company’s plans to shrink its refining business after covid-19 hammered global demand and profits.

“It’s the pandemic, not the U.S. elections, that matter for oil in the near-term,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a report.

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U.S. stocks fluctuate; Treasury yields increase

EconNov 07. 2020A pedestrian wearing a protective face mask is reflected in an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo on Oct. 29, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Kiyoshi Ota. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS

U.S. stocks sputtered into the close of what is set to be the best week since April, with investors still awaiting an election outcome.

The S&P 500 fluctuated between gains and losses Friday in the wake of a four-day rally added more than $1.5 trillion to the value of stocks. Technology again outperformed, with the Nasdaq 100 up 9% this week. Hiring outpaced expectations in October, defying calls for a slowdown in the economy as the virus continues to spread at a record pace.

Investors remain focused on the outcome of the presidential election, where Joe Biden is widely expected to win a tight race. Democrats appear to have only a long-shot chance at Senate control, stoking expectation that any aid package will be thin and Biden won’t be able to roll back President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. Without a massive spending bill, the Federal Reserve may increase its monetary support to keep the economic recovery on track.

“Fiscal stimulus should be supportive even if it is less than expected, and we still expect a vaccine to become widely available by the second quarter of next year,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Yields jumped after a report showed the labor market improved in October by more than forecast. Ten-year note yields climbed back above 0.80% and the dollar lingered at a more than two-year low.

Votes are still being tallied in the U.S., with Biden tightening his hold on the race by taking the lead over Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania.The president, however, questioned the credibility of the election, raising the prospect of a long stalemate as he challenges the results.

“Markets have risen under a variety of political regimes, but where it seems to do the best is a period of divided government in Washington when you have limited prospects for sweeping changes in legislation that would affect very legislative sensitive industries,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab Corp.

The U.S. became the first country to top 100,000 coronavirus infections in a single day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned this week that mounting infection rates are a risk to the recovery. Meanwhile, France warned of a “violent” second wave as it joined European countries including Italy and Poland in reporting new highs in daily infections.

Elsewhere, crude oil declined for a second day and gold was little changed.

“Given the big rally that we’ve had over a couple days, it’s going to have to take a pause at some point,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index was little changed at 3,509.44 as of 4:06 p.m. New York time, the first retreat in a week.

The Nasdaq 100 Index increased 0.1% to 12,091.35, reaching the highest in more than two months on its fifth straight advance.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2% to 366.40, the first retreat in more than a week.

The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.2% to 592.85, reaching the highest in more than two months on its fifth straight advance.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.3% to 1,149.91, the lowest in more than two years.

The Japanese yen appreciated 0.2% to 103.29 per dollar, the strongest in eight months.

The euro gained 0.5% to $1.1881, the strongest in more than two months.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys jumped six basis points to 0.82%, the biggest surge in more than a month.

The yield on 30-year Treasurys climbed eight basis points to 1.60%, the largest surge in more than a month.

Germany’s 10-year yield climbed two basis points to -0.62%.

Britain’s 10-year yield increased four basis points to 0.274%, the highest in more than a week.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 3.6% to $37.40 a barrel, the biggest dip in more than a week.

Gold strengthened 0.1% to $1,952.39 an ounce, the highest in more than seven weeks.

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Gold set for biggest weekly gain since July as Biden closes in

EconNov 06. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Eddie Spence, Mark Burton · BUSINESS 
Gold headed for the biggest weekly gain since July and copper rose as Joe Biden tightened his grip on the race for the White House, while investors also weighed prospects for further Federal Reserve stimulus.

Bullion broke out of a narrow trading range seen over the past month as uncertainty over the election and renewed stimulus hopes boosted demand for the haven. Biden, who needs a win in one more state to be elected president, overtook Donald Trump in Georgia and also expanded his lead in Nevada.

Trump meanwhile said the election was being stolen from him, though presented no evidence of widespread voting irregularities. The president’s campaign peppered courts with legal complaints, aimed at slowing or pausing counting of the votes, which were generally unsuccessful.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a possible shift in the central bank’s bond purchases in the coming months, saying that more fiscal and monetary support is needed. The Fed kept its stimulus steady at its meeting this week, but a Republican Senate hamstringing government aid efforts may force it to step up and fill the gap soon.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell more than expected in October, dropping to 6.9%, according to a Labor Department report Friday.

“You could argue precious metals also gained from concerns about how a contested election plays out,” said Marcus Garvey, head of metals strategy at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Spot gold added 0.5% to $1,958.98 an ounce by 1:54 p.m. in London, taking this week’s gain to 4.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.1%, on course for a weekly slump.

In base metals, copper turned higher as European trading got underway, and was last up 1.2% at $6,932 a ton in London. It’s also heading for a weekly advance on the back of recent dollar weakness. Zinc reversed an earlier loss to reach the highest since May 2019.

While a contested election ending with a divided government would be the least bullish of all possible outcomes for commodities markets, copper could still hit fresh highs next year on the back of faltering supply and robust demand, Morgan Stanley analysts Susan Bates and Marius van Straaten said in a note.

“Once initial volatility has passed, we expect increased focus on the market fundamentals, which remain broadly supportive for base metals,” the analysts wrote. “Copper still features the strongest fundamentals on a tepid supply growth outlook through 2021.”

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US stocks turn lower amid pandemic, election uncertainty

EconNov 06. 2020

By The Washington Post · Taylor Telford · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

U.S. stocks inched lower after Friday as investors grappled with a maelstrom of uncertainty: Record coronavirus infections, a weakening economic recovery and a yet-to-be called presidential race.

After mounting their sharpest rally since April, all major U.S. indexes were pointing lower in premarket trading as investors awaited October job numbers and the outcome of the presidential election. As of 7 a.m., Joe Biden had widened his lead over President Donald Trump in Georgia, putting him within striking distance of clinching the presidency. Trump would have to capture Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina to win.

Moments after opening bell, the Dow Jones industrial average had fallen 150 points, or 0.5 percent, to 28,255. The S&P 500 edged down 0.4 percent, to 3,495, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 0.5 percent to 11,825.

Stocks soared this week as the prospect of a GOP-controlled Senate reduced the likelihood that a Biden presidency would usher in tax increases and sweeping regulatory changes. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., would be able to block market-rattling Cabinet appointments, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., as treasury secretary.

“A split Congress is going to make it very difficult for Biden . . . to deliver on some of his more ambitious policies, many of which were widely viewed as market negative,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst with OANDA, wrote in comments emailed to The Washington Post. “The failure to secure the blue wave also means any stimulus will be smaller than it would have otherwise been but the way markets have responded, they’re viewing it as a small price to pay for stability.”

Daniel Ives, an analyst with Wedbush Securities, called this a “goldilocks outcome” for tech in particular, which could explain the Nasdaq’s buoyant performance this week after a run of sell-offs.

“With the Republicans likely to control the Senate, the chances of major legislative changes to antitrust law now is off the table in the eyes of investors, which posed the biggest risks to tech stalwarts with a ripple impact across the sector,” Ives said in comments emailed to The Washington Post.

While the nation anxiously awaits the final election outcome, the pandemic rages on. The United States reported 116,707 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, as 20 states saw their highest daily counts yet, and the number of fatalities surpassed 1,000 for the third consecutive day.

The pandemic’s surge could stall the economic recovery, which is showing signs of tapering. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9 from 7.9 percent in October as the economy added 638,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The gain is the smallest since May, when the economy began adding back some of the 22 million jobs lost early on in the pandemic.

Eleven million people remain unemployed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – about twice the amount from February, before the crisis.

“Today’s report highlights the challenge for lawmakers as the impulse for additional fiscal stimulus hangs in the balance between the pace of the economic recovery and the downside risks of the public health crisis,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, said in comments emailed to The Washington Post.

In Europe, skyrocketing cases are prompting curfews, and new business and travel restrictions. Italy and France both tightened shutdown measures this week, while Greece announced a three-week lockdown to try to tame the virus.

The worrying signs of pandemic resurgence are rattling investors. In midday trading, European indexes were negative across the board Friday. Germany’s DAX shed 1 percent, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.8 percent. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 was down 0.6 percent.

Gold, a safe-haven for investors in times of turmoil, was trading up 0.7 percent at $1,955 per ounce.

Oil markets were also in tumult Friday as rising coronavirus cases across the globe threatened to spark more movement restrictions and keep people in their homes, threatening demand for gas and other petroleum products. West Texas intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, was trading down more than 3 percent in early trading at $37.53 per barrel. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was down 2.7 percent to trade at $39.75 per barrel.

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U.S. labor market extends gains, jobless rate declines to 6.9%

EconNov 06. 2020Employees sew fabric at a manufacturing facility in Hickory, N.C., on Aug. 12, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Logan Cyrus. 

By  Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Katia Dmitrieva · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
The U.S. labor market strengthened in October, defying expectations for more subdued gains amid an intensifying pandemic and lack of additional fiscal relief.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 after an upwardly revised 672,000 gain the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. That compared with the 580,000 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and reflected a decline of 147,000 in temporary Census workers.

The unemployment rate fell by 1 percentage point to 6.9% — a bigger drop than economists projected and double the prior month’s decline — though the number of long-term jobless Americans surged and now makes up a third of those out of work.

Progress in the U.S. labor market is holding up as household savings help fuel spending and business investment rebounds, providing whoever wins the presidential election with an economy that’s in better shape than many analysts expected just six months ago.

The number of permanent job losers was little changed at 3.7 million in the month, a positive sign after two straight significant increases.

Yet jobs remain 10 million below pre-pandemic levels, and with coronavirus infections rising at a record rate this week, maintaining the pace of hiring may be difficult.

Other figures point to an increasingly fragile labor market beneath the headline numbers. The number of long-term unemployed — those jobless for 27 weeks or more — increased by 1.15 million to 3.56 million, the highest level since early 2014.

Colder weather will also challenge businesses like restaurants that have depended on outdoor dining when many Americans are fearful of gathering indoors, making the economy’s path highly dependent on the development and distribution of a successful vaccine, especially if virus restrictions re-emerge as they have in other parts of the world.

In addition, the congressional election results this week probably reduced the chances that any new stimulus will be as massive as Democrats sought, meaning limited cash for the unemployed and businesses most affected by the virus.

“It’s hard to look at months or weeks past because you know what’s lying ahead and that’s an increase in virus cases. That continues to be the dark cloud looming ahead,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But the fact that the jobless rate took such a big decline, that’s extremely encouraging.”

U.S. stock futures pared losses after the data, while 10-year Treasury yields rose.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that “we’re sort of halfway there on the labor market recovery, at best,” while also signaling concern over the surge in Covid-19 cases.

Other highlights of the report:

– Private-sector payroll gains accelerated during the month with a 906,000 gain following 892,000. Hiring picked up in retail, transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and construction.

– The female unemployment rate, at 6.7%, is now below that of men, at 7%. Women were less likely to be unemployed than men before the pandemic, but that had reversed during the crisis.

– Prime-age women’s labor-force participation — reflecting people ages 25 to 54 — rose for the first time in four months.

– Unemployment among Black Americans dropped by 1.3 percentage point to 10.8% while for White Americans it fell to 6%. The Latino unemployment rate fell to 8.8% from 10.3%.

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BAAC injects Bt220 billion in fresh loans to boost rural economy

EconNov 06. 2020Surachai Rusmee, acting president of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, speaks to reporters at a press conference on Friday held to mark the bank’s 55th anniversary. 

By The Nation

The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) is making available new loans worth Bt220 billion to support the economy at the grassroots level, Surachai Rusmee, acting president of the state-run bank told the press on Friday.

The bank had held a press conference to mark its 55th anniversary. 

Aiming to boost agricultural production, BAAC has earmarked Bt170 billion to cover loans for farmers and their children. Part of the funds will be used to support younger people who want to return to their villages and help their parents transform their farms by using new technology, said Surachai, who is also senior executive vice president. 

Loans handed out under the “New Gen Hug” theme will offer a three-month interest break, and from the fourth month, the interest rate will be set at a minimum retail rate (MRR) of 6.5 per cent per annum.

The bank has also set aside Bt50 billion to support community enterprises. Under this scheme, loans will be given out at a very low interest rate of 0.01 per cent annually. BAAC will also offer technical assistance to borrowers and will partner with educational institutions, department stores, modern trade and others to provide knowhow in technology, production and marketing for borrowers, he said. 

In a move to ease the impact of Covid-19, BAAC has also offered borrowers a one-year debt holiday until June 2021. The project, launched on October 22, covers 3.25 million farmers, agricultural cooperatives and communities with debt suspension worth Bt1.45 trillion. 

BAAC has also participated in the central bank’s soft-loan scheme for SMEs. As of October 22, it had lent Bt5.1 billion to 5,974 small businesses. 

The bank also handed out emergency loans of no more than Bt10,000 per individual at a monthly rate of 0.1 per cent with payment over two and half years. As of October 31, the bank had granted emergency loans to 850,000 borrowers worth Bt8.5 billion. 

BAAC has also participated in the government’s cash handout scheme designed to support self-employed persons who were affected by the pandemic. Each person was given Bt5,000 per month from May to July. The bank handed out a combined Bt43 billion in cash to 2.7 million people, as well as Bt13.3 billion to 7.56 million farmers over the three months. 

BAAC, armed with a workforce of 25,000, has provided financial services to help farmers and small businesses survive the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, he said.