#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Layoffs continue as jobless claims remain high

EconOct 02. 2020

By The Washington Post · Eli Rosenberg · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

WASHINGTON – A cascade of new layoffs announced this week is putting pressure on an already strained labor market as numerous large companies have said they plan to shed thousands of workers in the final months of 2020.

The Labor Department on Thursday painted a grim picture of the jobs market even before these new layoffs were reported: 837,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance were processed last week. That’s down from a peak in late March and April, but it is still higher than any other period before the coronavirus pandemic.

Another 650,000 people had new claims processed last week for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), the program for self-employed and gig workers, up slightly from 630,000 the week before.

The total number of people claiming unemployment insurance ticked up slightly, to 26.5 million for the week ending Sept. 12.

The unemployment rate was 3.5% in February and jumped to nearly 15% in April as U.S. employers laid off more than 20 million people due to the coronavirus pandemic. Employers have added back about half the lost jobs since, but many Americans remain unemployed. President Donald Trump has said the economy is roaring back to life, but new layoff announcements show how some companies are struggling to adjust to the uneven economic recovery, particularly as some industries remain weak.

Several companies in recent days have announced sizable corporate layoffs, including 28,000 people at Disney from its theme park division, 3,800 people at the insurance company Allstate, and tens of thousands of additional furloughs at American Airlines and United Airlines. Numerous industries are under severe strain. Continental, the German tire company, announced plans to cut as many as 30,000 jobs worldwide, and Marathon Petroleum has begun a new round of layoffs.

“There is clearly a stalling out in the improvement in the domestic labor force,” said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM. “In particular, the rise in the number of persons on unemployment insurance and the increase in the number of people on PUA need to be monitored, because that signals we’re likely to have a sustained issue over the next couple of years inside the labor market, particularly pertaining to transportation, leisure, hospitality in general, aviation and hotels in particular.”

There are several reasons for the new rounds of layoffs. 

Americans have not resumed traveling at the pace they did before the pandemic, putting a lot of pressure on airlines and companies that rely on tourism and visitors. Also, emergency government aid programs for businesses and households have mostly expired, leaving Americans with less money for spending.

The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that personal incomes fell $543.5 billion, or 2.7%, in August and that disposable personal income also fell. Consumer spending, meanwhile, grew 1% in August. Consumer spending is typically seen as the biggest engine in the U.S. economy. 

U.S. employers announced another 118,000 job cuts in August, according to the employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, bringing the yearly total to more than 2 million – the highest ever recorded by the firm.

Economists have started talking less about returning to a pre-pandemic normal and more about what the new economy will look like. 

“Clearly the covid shocks have led to an economy in transition,” Chester Spatt, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University, said, referring to covid-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus. “Even once we get back to full employment, the jobs aren’t going to be the same as the old jobs. People talk a lot about when we return to normal, but I don’t think normal is defined as the way we did things before.”

The White House and congressional Democrats are trying to negotiate another economic relief package, with talks continuing Thursday. Both sides say they want more small-business aid, joblessness benefits and stimulus checks, but they remain far apart on other issues. A deal does not appear imminent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Thai stock gurus weight impact of US presidential election

EconOct 02. 2020

By The Nation

Experts advise that Thai investors diversify their portfolios to escape market volatility before and after the US presidential election.

Wednesday’s opening presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden focused on personal attacks rather than policy and was unlikely to affect voters’ decisions much, according to most observers.

Thai fund managers assess that Biden has more credibility than Trump, but say the election’s outcome is far from certain, pointing to Trump’s win in 2016 despite Hillary Clinton gaining the majority of votes. The uncertainty will fuel stock market volatility both before and after the election, they add.

Thanavut Pornrojnangkool, deputy managing director at Bangkok Capital Asset Management, said that if Trump wins the election, the market will be buoyed by his existing policies which benefit big business, but also nervous over any new and unexpected policies.

“Investors should beware of stocks linked with China because Trump may impose policies that could trigger a US-China trade war at any time,” he said.

Meanwhile a Biden win would affect listed companies’ profits because he has policies to collect more tax from companies and middle- and upper-class citizens in order to reduce inequality.

“Certain businesses, such as renewable energy companies, would receive Biden’s support, but others, such as pharmaceutical and technology companies, would be under pressure from his policies [as president],” he said.

However, a Biden’s presidency would be more predictable, meaning investors could focus on sectors that benefit from Biden’s policies and avoid sectors that would not, he added.

To deal with volatility before the presidential election, he advised investors to diversify and buy assets amid market corrections for good returns in the long term.

Win Phromphaet, chief investment officer at Principal Asset Management, said investors needn’t worry about the presidential election because it would not strongly affect the direction of US stocks.

“Records show the US stock market has risen for 17 out of 19 US presidential elections. The market has fallen only twice at this time, due to the Dot-com bubble crisis in 2000 and the Hamburger crisis in 2008, so we expect it to rise despite the Covid-19 crisis this year,” he said.

Market volatility before the election was a chance to increase investments in stocks with growth potential and also technology shares, which are currently popular, he added.

Somchai Amornthum, of the Strategic Asset Allocation & Fund Marketing Department at Krung Thai Asset Management, said the US stock market will fall if there is a political change but rise if Trump is re-elected.

“The US-China trade war will pressure the market if Trump wins, while risks of increasing tariffs will pressure it if Biden wins, but we believe the market has already priced in the negative sentiment, as seen from the fall in September,” he said.

“So whoever wins the election, stocks are still an interesting choice for long-term investment to generate returns amid low-level interest.”

He added that investors should hedge between US and China stocks to manage market volatility before and after the presidential election, as well as keeping an eye on both the domestic and international situation before investing in Thai shares.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET rises over hopes of US economic stimulus package

EconOct 01. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,247.59 on Thursday, up 10.55 points or 0.85 per cent. The volume of total transactions was Bt44.86 billion with an index high of 1,251.11 and a low of 1,232.81.

During the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expected the index to rebound to 1,245 points before falling from hopes that US lawmakers will reach an agreement on further economic stimulus measures and also a rise in the price of oil.

“US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House speaker Nancy Pelosi have indicated that Republicans and Democrats will reach an agreement soon,” the analyst said.

“However, investors should beware of high market volatility after the expiration of SET’s ceiling-floor adjustment, uptick rules and a circuit breaker, as well as a mass sell-off of Thai shares by foreign investors,” he said.

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were MICRO, SCC, BANPU, KBANK, AOT, PTT, STGT, CPF, CPALL and MINT.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.13 or 0.32 per cent to $40.09 per barrel, while gold rose by $4.10 or 0.22 per cent, to $1,899.60 per ounce.

Among other Asian Indices, Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 23,184.93, down 0.19 points or 0.00082 per cent.

China and Hong Kong stock indices were closed for National Day, South Korea’s KOSPI Index was closed for Chuseok festival, and Taiwan’s TAIEX Index was closed for the Moon festival.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Investors advised to look out for opportunities despite volatility in Q4

EconOct 01. 2020Sukit Udomsirikul, SCBS managing director in charge of the research group 

By The Nation

SCB Securities (SCBS) is advising investors to closely monitor markets amid signs of increasing volatility during the fourth quarter of this year. The volatility is driven by perceived positive factors, while investor focus shifts to negative risk factors.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will continue fluctuating with important buy zones of between 1,160 and 1,200 points. The good news is that a Covid-19 vaccine will help boost market performance.

Three investment themes are recommended for the fourth quarter:

• Core Portfolios emphasising high quality individual defensive stocks;

• Tactical Portfolios emphasising high-quality stocks adjusting to global and local economic cycles; and

• S-curve Portfolios emphasising small stocks with outstanding growth stories and strong growth potential.

The SET Index is expected to close out the year at 1,300 points.

Sukit Udomsirikul, SCBS managing director in charge of the research group, said surplus liquidity will lead to an adjustment of the economy and asset prices away from current trends, with the economy slowly picking up despite a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic likely to strike again with the coming winter.

Economic stimulus measures are unlikely to have an impact as normality slowly returns. Arising uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and a No-Deal Brexit could send the market into rally territory.

Thailand’s GDP is projected to shrink by minus 7.8 per cent in 2020, an even lower level than the minus 5.9 per cent predicted earlier due to impacts from a slower than expected recovery of the tourism sector, including rising bad debts, unemployment and a stronger baht.

Considering the fourth quarter trend, prospects for the overall global economy and investment could be increasingly worrisome due to three primary risk factors:

• A slow, fragile, and uncertain global recovery with economic indicators showing further signs of a sluggish economy amid the potential of a second wave of the infections in many countries;

• Tightening US economic policies if Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden is elected president. Biden plans to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $7 trillion over the next 10 years in support of government spending on social welfare and infrastructure projects.

He is also seeking to fund the rising fiscal deficit by boosting tax revenues to $4 trillion;

• Burgeoning geo-political risks worldwide over the past few months, with continuing tensions between mega economic powerhouses – US and China – as part of Washington’s long-term plan to prevent Beijing from ascending to power.

On the local front, the Thai economy appears to be recovering with the easing of lockdown measures and positive factors from digital transformation as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic helping speed up the adoption of digital technology.

Sectors hardest hit by the outbreak are tourism and logistics, which tumbled by approximately 50 per cent and 39 per cent respectively due to the travel ban imposed on foreign tourists.

As these two segments represent the lion’s share of the nation’s GDP, this decline has seriously impacted the overall economy. SCBS therefore projects that the Thai economy could nosedive even further, from minus 5.9 per cent to minus 7.8 per cent.

However, there are always opportunities in times of crises. With the pandemic boosting digital transformation and the SET Index based on prevailing fundamentals at a level of 1,300 points, the following stocks are recommended for the end of 2020:

• Core Portfolio: High quality defensive stocks like BAM, BDMS, CBG, EGCO, and GFPT.

• Tactical Portfolio: High quality stocks demonstrating strong adjustment capabilities in response to global and local economic cycles, like AP, PTT and TOP

• S-Curve Portfolio: Minor stocks with outstanding growth stories and strong growth potential, like AUCT, IIG, PRIME, SVI, WICE and ZIGA

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

New central bank chief takes office

EconOct 01. 2020Veerathai Santiprabhob, left, passes the baton to his successor Setthaput Suthiwart-Narueput on October 1. 

By The Nation

New Bank of Thailand governor Setthaput Suthiwart-Narueput officially took office on Thursday.

He is Thailand’s 21st central bank governor, taking over from Veerathai Santiprabhob, whose five-year term expired at the end of last month.

Meanwhile, Finance Ministry permanent secretary Krisda Chinavicharana said he will deliver his policies to high-ranking ministry executives on Friday (October 2).

Krisda said the ministry had witnessed improvement in many economic indicators.

The ministry will also examine each business sector, one by one, as part of its efforts to tailor relief measures to their specific needs.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold price flat due to dollar appreciation, strong US economic data

EconOct 01. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold was unchanged in morning trade on Thursday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.22am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,150 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,250, while gold ornaments cost Bt27,636.68 and Bt28,750, respectively.

The gold price at Wednesday’s close rose by Bt50 per baht weight after the association announced a change in the price of the precious metal four times.

The spot gold price moved to US$1,889 (Bt59,677.48) per ounce on Thursday morning after the price dropped by $7.70 to $1,895.50 per ounce at yesterday’s close.

The gold price closed in negative territory due to a strengthening dollar, the rise in US stock markets and strong US economic data.