Mnuchin, speaking on Fox Business, said a second round of payments for the same amount could be sent within the next six weeks if the crisis continued. The White House’s urgency has intensified as economic forecasts have become increasingly gloomy. A J.P. Morgan Chase analyst forecast that the U.S. economy could shrink by 14% between April and June, which would mark the worst quarterly contraction since World War II.

Mnuchin’s comments are part of the rapidly evolving fiscal stimulus plan that the White House and congressional leaders are scrambling to assemble amid growing signs that large parts of the economy are grinding to a halt. House Democrats, meanwhile, are working on their own set of proposals, and negotiations with the White House are expected to begin very soon.

The White House until several days ago had sought to pass a large tax cut measure to try and boost the amount of money people took home, but that idea was panned by lawmakers from both parties and seemed ineffective given an expected spike in unemployment. So this week the White House shifted to a goal of sending cash payments to many Americans, as quickly as possible.

The Treasury Department has estimated that such an approach could cost $500 billion and serve as a large part of their $1 trillion economic rescue package it wants Congress to authorize immediately. They also are proposing helping small businesses obtain funding in a way that avoids mass layoffs, creating an emergency lending facility for airlines, and providing liquidity to another range of firms that have been hammered by cancellations and closures.

But many parts of the White House’s approach remain in flux, and lawmakers from both parties are debating a number of different ideas.

Some Republican senators want to cap the payments to prevent taxpayers who earn over $75,000 annually from receiving the checks, according to two people aware of the GOP’s internal negotiations, who cautioned the talks were fluid and the numbers could change. And some other Republican senators want to substitute enhanced unemployment benefits or small business payroll assistance for at least some of the direct cash assistance Mnuchin has proposed.

Mnuchin and Trump initially suggested the money could reach American taxpayers within two weeks, although Mnuchin on Thursday suggested it would take three.

“Most people, we have their information,” Mnuchin said, suggesting the money could be directly deposited in consumers’ bank accounts.

House Democrats, wary of being sidelined as a potential trillion-dollar stimulus bill is negotiated between the White House and Senate Republicans, are trying to assert their power by proposing their own sweeping coronavirus economic rescue package in the coming days.

But Democrats have their own issues to work through — including how to put their own stamp on what is emerging as the centerpiece of the Republican-led plan being drafted in the Senate that could be unveiled as soon as Thursday: an estimated $500 billion plan to deliver checks directly to Americans over the next 90 days.

Tensions over the shape of the package emerged in a conference call Wednesday of House Democratic leaders and committee chairmen.

House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., and Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., argued for outgunning Republicans on the size of the cash payments, according to three participants on the call.

Waters, for instance, circulated a plan Wednesday calling for $2,000 per adult and $1,000 per child monthly stipend until the crisis abates.

But other Democrats — including Speaker Nancy Pelosi — while not ruling out direct payments, urged a more balanced course. Multiple committee chairmen argued that beefing up existing safety net programs — such as unemployment insurance and Medicaid, as well as small business assistance, would provide more targeted and effective relief.

All Democrats on the call, according to the participants, agreed that any cash payments should be means-tested to exclude the wealthiest Americans, a sentiment the White House appears to share.

In a letter to fellow Democrats late Wednesday, Pelosi alluded to the debate as “ongoing discussions in our Caucus on how to put money quickly in the hands of Americans.”

“Our Chairs are suggesting ways which are structural,” she wrote. “For example, solutions include expanding eligibility for Unemployment Insurance which will expedite financial relief for more people. In terms of helping small businesses, solutions include funds to ensure that workers continue to be paid. Refundable tax credits including the [Earned Income Tax Credit] and the child tax credit continue to be priorities as Members discuss other cash payments in the days ahead.”

But to many Democrats, discussions revolving around esoteric subjects like refundable tax credits are both insufficient in the face of a national crisis and a political loser when compared to the relatively easy-to-grasp concept of a check to every household.

“I think members are really just concerned about, what’s the fastest way to go?” said one House Democrat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to frankly describe conversations with colleagues.

Regardless of the cash-payments debate, House Democrats are eager to insert themselves in the debate after taking a lead role in shaping the second round of coronavirus pandemic response, which was passed by the Senate and signed by President Trump Wednesday.

House members left Washington after passing the second-round bill early Saturday morning, leaving the Capitol to the Senate this week as House Democrats try to do their business through emails and conference calls. The House’s operations were further thrown into disarray Wednesday after two members announced they had tested positive for covid-19, while several others who came in contract with them chose to self-quarantine.

Schumer and Senate Democrats have released a framework of their own — a $750 billion package that prioritizes a “medical surge,” federal funding for child care and a emergency liquidity for small businesses. Much of the bill is devoted to existing safety net programs — not cash payments.

But payments have backing among Senate Democrats, too — notably, a proposal from Sens. Michael Bennet (Colo.), Cory Booker (N.J.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) that would put an immediate $2,000 into the hands of every American adult and child, with more possibly to follow.

More than a million workers are expected to lose their jobs by the end of March, economists say, a dramatic turnaround from February when the unemployment rate was near a record low. Ball State University economist Michael Hicks predicts this month could be the worst for layoffs in U.S. history.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that 281,000 people applied for jobless benefits last week, up 33% from the prior week. Economists say it’s only going to get worse. New York restaurateur Danny Meyer’s Union Square Hospitality Group let 2,000 workers go this Wednesday. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, which oversees 54 hotels, laid off 4,000 employees Tuesday. MGM Resorts and Caesars have begun letting staff go, along with countless smaller restaurants, bars, gyms and coffee shops.

The surge is straining state unemployment offices, which deliver benefits to the jobless so they can buy food and pay rent. On Monday, there were so many people trying to file for unemployment insurance in New York, Oregon and elsewhere that the websites crashed. Newly laid off workers waited hours on poorly staffed phone lines, they said.

As Americans turn to unemployment insurance, some are finding they don’t qualify. Or if they do, the average payment of $385 a week is modest. In some states, there’s a week-long waiting period before the first payment arrives.

“Workers expect unemployment insurance to be there for them in a downturn. A bunch of workers are about to find out that it’s not,” said Martha Gimbel, a labor economist at Schmidt Futures who was formerly at Indeed.com. “This is a real-life nightmare. Every hole we allowed to grow in our social safety net is hitting us all at once.”

Sean McGuire lost his job as a dishwasher at a popular Portland, Ore., brunch spot on Monday. The restaurant owners gave him brisket, onions and an apology. He spent the rest of the day trying to apply for unemployment, only to be turned down.

“I was on hold with the Oregon Department of Labor for over an hour. They were inundated,” said McGuire, a 30-year-old Army veteran who served in Iraq a decade ago. “When I finally spoke to a person, they told me I don’t qualify.”

McGuire moved to Oregon on Jan. 1, but he hasn’t worked long enough in the state to receive benefits. He tried to apply in New York, where he previously worked, but the website crashed. After another long wait on the phone, he was told he had not met the requirements there, either, because he quit a previous job. Most states require at least six months of work to qualify for any benefits. Now he’s worried about paying his $1,200 monthly rent on a short-term Airbnb through June.

Many of the newly jobless haven’t been able to file for unemployment benefits yet because the Web portals in their states are down. The problems are exacerbated by low staffing levels at state unemployment offices that didn’t expect such a surge any time soon. In mere weeks, the pandemic is on track to usher in a magnitude of unemployment that took months to reach during the Great Recession.

In Seattle, Ian Vermeers was laid off from his job at a Regal Cinemas movie theater on Monday. He’s been staying up all night to submit his application online and by phone – to no avail.

“I figured maybe things would get better in the middle of the night, but it’s 8 a.m. now and I still haven’t gotten through,” he said Wednesday. “Every time, I’m immediately hit with, ‘Sorry, our system is not working right now.'”

Many economists are urging Congress to quickly boost funding for state unemployment insurance. The Families First Coronavirus Response Act that President Donald Trump signed Wednesday included $1 billion to help states with administrative costs of processing unemployment insurance, but additional stimulus will be needed to cover more people. Twenty-three states were already running low on money in their unemployment trust funds before the pandemic hit.

Congress also has the power to increase the amount of unemployment dollars laid off workers receive and to extend benefits to self-employed and “gig” workers, as happens during natural disasters. Sixteen states have such restrictive criteria that fewer than 20% of laid off workers in the state are able to get unemployment benefits, according to the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

“I’m terrified that states aren’t recession-ready anymore,” said Michele Evermore, senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. “States have reduced the amount of benefits and access to benefits in a way that means that very few people can apply for unemployment insurance and receive it.”

Contractors, tipped workers, full-time students and undocumented workers often do not qualify for unemployment benefits, labor advocates said. Waiters and hotel staff who lose jobs are especially vulnerable, because they tend to move jobs frequently and rely on tips – factors that states handle differently. Plus, many states require applicants to prove they are searching for full-time work, although a few states including Texas have begun waiving the requirements.

Shawna, an exotic dancer who spoke on the condition she be identified only by her first name, found out Monday by text message that she would be out of work for at least two weeks. Unlike the bartenders and bouncers who work with her at a gentlemen’s club near Philadelphia, she does not qualify for unemployment insurance because she is a contractor.

She used to make $1,300 in a good week. Now the 31-year-old isn’t sure how she’ll be able to pay her rent or afford food without a steady income.

“The whole system is set up in a really bad way for us,” she said. “We are completely on our own right now.”

So far, the wave of coronavirus-related layoffs has disproportionately hit service workers in typically lower-paying jobs. Many lack adequate savings and say they don’t know where to turn as restaurants, bars, cafes and shops across the country shut their doors indefinitely.

Nellie Hana, a full-time student and line cook at an Olive Garden in Buffalo, New York, said managers this week told kitchen staff they had a choice: They could be laid off and file for unemployment, or they could keep working five hours a week processing to-go orders.

For Hana, unemployment wasn’t an option. Full-time students don’t typically qualify for unemployment benefits. She chose to keep working, even though that means her $600-a-week job will now bring in less than $70 each week.

“I have no choice but to wait this out,” said Hana, 20, who is majoring in media production at SUNY Buffalo State College. “I have student loans and bills to pay. Rent is coming up. Past that, I don’t know how I’m going to eat.”

Rich Jeffers, a spokesman for Olive Garden’s parent company, Darden Restaurants, said the company has not laid off any employees, though many restaurant workers have had their hours reduced to zero, as mayors and governors order dining rooms to close. The company, he said, is providing emergency pay of up to two weeks to affected employees.

For workers, one of the most frustrating aspects is the uncertainty. No one knows how long the pandemic and near-lockdown of the economy will last, and some workers have found themselves in limbo – not technically laid off, but also not getting paid.

Several big companies, such as Marriott International, are furloughing tens of thousands of workers. Halliburton announced furloughs of 3,500 employees at its Houston campus starting next Monday, because of the huge hit to oil prices this month. Furloughs allows workers to keep their health-care benefits, though they have no income coming in.

American Eagle is among a growing number of retailers closing its stores through late March. The company has pledged to pay employees for the hours they are scheduled in coming weeks. But an employee in a New York store said managers recently scrapped the original schedule and created a new one that only includes managers, which means she – and the majority of her co-workers – won’t be paid.

“I’ve worked up to 40 hours a week for more than three years,” said the employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retribution at work. “I’ve never received zero hours. I don’t know what to do.”

American Eagle didn’t return a request for comment.

Workers whose hours are severely reduced are supposed to be eligible for partial unemployment benefits, but state rules vary, and workers often have to file an appeal if an initial claim is denied.

One proposal in the works that could help the unemployed is a move backed by the White House to send $1,000 checks directly to workers, possibly twice. That’s just a small comfort for McGuire, however, who made more washing dishes in Portland.

“If you’re in a major city, that $1,000 doesn’t pay your rent, let alone health care, transportation and food,” he said. “My financial situation is in complete disarray.”

“The bank has sharply lower our 2020-22 GDP growth forecasts to reflect the worsening coronavirus outbreak – both globally and domestically – and our recent downward revisions for China, the US and the euro area as we are expecting recessions in the US and euro area).

We now forecast Thai GDP growth at -1.0 per cent this year, versus +1.8 per cent previously, with Q1 growth at -3.0 per cent year on year. We expect a return to positive growth in 2021-22, but at lower levels: 1.8 per cent in 2021, compared to 2.5 per cent previously, and 2.5 per cent in 2022 from the previous projection of 5 per cent,” said Tim.

The bank also lowers  inflation forecasts for the 2020-22 period to reflect economic weakness and low oil prices, expecting average CPI inflation of – 0.5 per cent in 2020 (1.0 per cent previously), 1.0 per cent in 2021 (1.5 per cent previously) and 1.5 per cent in 2022 (3.0 per cent previously).

Tim  expects a substantial current account (C/A) surplus of 4.5 per cent in 2020, but now expects larger surpluses in the subsequent years due to lower imports amid a slowing economy, lower oil prices and a strong expected recovery in inbound tourism.” We revise up our 2021-22 C/A forecasts to 4.5 per cent of GDP (from 3.0 per cent ) and 3.0 per cent (from -0.8 per cent ),” said Tim.

External accounts to remain strong

The timing of the tourism recovery is difficult to predict, but we now expect it to be delayed beyond Q2/2020. The latest data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (for February) shows that arrivals plunged 44.3 per cent year on year; arrivals from China fell 85.3 per cent. The Songkran (Thai New Year) festivities in April have been called off, and the granting of visas on arrival or visa exemptions for a total of 21 countries has been cancelled until the situation improves. However, the government has said it may consider classifying China as less risky as the rate of new cases there has moderated, according to a Bloomberg report.

Current low oil prices will support the C/A surplus given Thailand’s status as a net commodity importer. In addition, we do not see a large increase in investment-related imports in the foreseeable future. The current government appears to be focused on providing a short-term boost to the economy via private consumption rather than reviving investment, according to the bank.

Fiscal policy needs to step up

We expect fiscal deficit forecasts of -3.5 per cent of GDP for 2020 and -3.0 per cent for both 2021 and 2022. The Cabinet has approved phase one of a Covid-19 stimulus package combining tax benefits, soft loans for businesses and relief measures for households, but without additional spending. These measures are expected to inject about Bt400 bn (2.4 per cent of GDP) into the economy, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO); we think the impact will depend on private-sector take-up of the measures.

While these measures have provided an initial boost to sentiment, they may have a limited impact on private consumption or the economy as a whole. We believe more effective fiscal spending is needed – particularly in the form of public infrastructure investment – before the private sector will respond. A personal income tax cut could be more effective; the Palang Pracharath Party, the biggest party in the government coalition, promised such a cut as part of its election campaign. However, this might not materialise soon, as the Finance Ministry has indicated that it would be reluctant to reduce a steady source of revenue.

Politics: Potential risk

Political noise is rising, even if risk remains low. Students and supporters of the now- defunct Future Forward Party (FFP) have held small protests and gatherings since 21 February, when the Constitutional Court ruled to dissolve the opposition party for violating election laws. The bank does not see a significant risk that this will escalate into street protests at this stage, as coronavirus concerns are likely to deter large gatherings.

Monetary policy

Tim expects the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its scheduled meeting on March 25, taking the policy rate to a new low of 0.75 per cent. Given recent decisions by other central banks, we do not rule out an intermeeting move prior to March 25, or a deeper cut of 50 basis points . In line with the downgrades to our economic outlook, the bank now sees the policy rate being cut further by 25 basis points each in Q2 and Q3, taking the rate to a record-low 0.25 per cent at end of this year.

However, the BOT faces limitations on its ability to be as dovish or aggressive as other central banks. Further deep cuts without a clear positive impact or the desired market response could risk complicating the BoT’s monetary policy-making ability. Policy rates below 0.5 per cent could create transmission difficulties, with banks unable to match the BOT cut, given their mandatory contribution to the bailout fund as the central has yet to announce an adjustment to the contribution, he said.

At this stage, the Standard Chartered bank expects the central bank to provide assurances that policy will remain accommodative for as long as needed, along with verbal intervention in the FX market, though this is not needed given current under-performance of the baht and liquidity measures. “In this context, we believe fiscal policy needs to do more of the heavy lifting to support the economy and avoid the need for zero or negative interest rates; fiscal stimulus measures announced so far appear to have had limited effectiveness, according the bank.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe’s unconventional approach set out Thursday after an emergency meeting differs from his European and U.S. counterparts, who pledged to buy a certain amount of government securities to keep yields down. Instead, he’ll aim to keep three-year government bond yield at 0.25%.

Lowe also cut the cash rate to 0.25%, a level he has nominated as the effective lower bound, noting it wasn’t a coincidence that policy makers in the U.S., New Zealand and the U.K. all eased to the same level. Similarly, in line with other central banks, the RBA governor set out forward guidance by saying he expects to remain on hold for “some years.”

Australia’s economy is spiraling toward its first recession since 1991 and its credit markets are under stress from investors worldwide trying to head for the exits. In a speech after the policy announcement, Lowe didn’t try to sugar coat the months ahead, saying “we are expecting a major hit to economic activity and incomes in Australia that will last for a number of months. We are also expecting significant job losses.”

Qantas Airways on Thursday furloughed most of its 30,000-strong workforce and scrapped all international flights.

The RBA also announced a term funding facility of at least A$90 billion ($50 billion) for the banking system, with particular support for credit to small and medium-sized businesses.

In a complementary program, Australia’s government will invest up to A$15 billion to allow smaller lenders to support consumers and smaller businesses during the coronavirus outbreak, according to a statement from the treasurer. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is also developing a follow-up spending package to expand on the A$17.6 billion program announced last week.

The combined fiscal-monetary salvo aims to keep firms open and workers in jobs.

Australia now finds itself in uncharted territory: The country was a poster-child for its response to the 2008-09 financial crisis and worldwide downturn. It deployed a combination of fiscal and monetary policy that allowed the economy to escape the recession that enveloped most of the developed world, without ever adopting unorthodox monetary policies.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s administration had been in office less than a year when credit markets seized up. The government put together two packages worth more than 4% of GDP and the central bank cut interest rates by 425 basis points. Andrew Charlton was Rudd’s chief economic adviser at the time and ran point on the fiscal stimulus.

“The key feature of the Australian response to the global financial crisis was speed and size,” said Charlton, now director of consultancy AlphaBeta in Sydney. “We wanted to use our fiscal firepower to keep the economy going, not to restart it after it had stalled.”

It’s a similar approach today.

In a speech explaining Thursday’s moves, Lowe said the board expects “the cash rate will remain at its current level for some years, but not forever.” Lowe said he expects that the yield target will be removed before the cash rate is increased, once the economy improves.

In a move to relieve the margin squeeze facing banks, the RBA said it’ll pay lenders 10 basis points on funds deposited with it overnight, rather than the usual 25 basis point discount to the cash rate. It’s trying to avoid the type of stress banks in Japan and Europe have faced in a low-rates world.

By targeting a flat yield curve over three years, the RBA is hoping to put more cash into the pockets of households that tend to have variable mortgage rates. It’s also seeking to lower borrowing costs so businesses will be tempted to expand again once the worst of the virus shutdown passes.

By saying it’ll also buy semi-government securities, the RBA aims to avoid a blow out in yields on state government debt relative to commonwealth bonds. It will make purchases “across the yield curve” to achieve its target and avoid dislocations.

The yield on Australian government three-year bonds tumbled after the policy statement and traded about 16 basis points lower at 0.34% as of 6:38 p.m. in Sydney. The Aussie dollar is trading higher from intra-day lows of 55.10 U.S. cents at 56.68 U.S. cents.

Lowe noted the Australian dollar had come down “a reasonable amount.” “Liquidity is thin, but it hasn’t been to a point where we needed to intervene, but we are prepared to if liquidity conditions deteriorate,” he said in response to a question.

Australia’s credit markets have been stressed and the RBA has been pumping liquidity into the financial system in recent days to help calm them.

Lowe said the timing and strength of the economy’s recovery after the virus depends “in part upon how successful we are, as a nation, in building that bridge to the other side.” Ever the optimist, he pointed out that Australia has “fantastic” fundamentals.

Futures rose as much as 18% in New York, the most since December 2008, following a 24% rout in the previous session. Prices have cratered over the past two weeks as major producers hike output in a fight for market share while demand plummets. Signs of stress are already showing in some corners of the world with Canadian oil at a record low and some North Sea fields becoming uneconomic.

The European Central Bank has unleashed an emergency bond-buying program, while the Senate cleared the second major bill responding to the outbreak in an attempt to kickstart the economy. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the government might take equity positions as part of corporate rescues.

Countries are ramping up measures as the global spread of the virus continues to gather pace with the number of confirmed cases in Europe now exceeding China. Italy’s death count has surged to almost 3,000, while the U.K. imposed tighter controls on movement of people including closing all schools.

“We are heading into the most oversupplied market in the history of the oil market,” said DNB Bank senior analyst Helge Andre Martinsen. “We might hit full utilization of global oil inventories in the months to come.”

As the world’s biggest oil producers boost supply, Rep. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota called on President Donald Trump to ban crude imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members in response to recent action taken by them to “distort energy markets” when demand is already weak.

The Saudis ordered state-run Aramco to keep output at a record high of 12.3 million barrels a day over the coming months. But in a surprise move Thursday, both Saudi Arabia and Iraq cut the rebates on freight costs they give to customers, effectively lifting prices.

See also: Some Oil in Canada Has Already Tumbled Below $10 a Barrel

The higher supply is increasingly taking its toll on the oil market’s structure. Brent’s six-month timespread is currently at its most bearish since 2009, indicating a big glut. As a result, traders are eying lucrative opportunities from storing oil on tankers and hoping to sell it at a profit later.

With crude’s price weakness getting more entrenched, traders are increasingly trying to assess the impact on U.S. production this year. On Thursday, a barrel of Permian oil was cheaper than a meal at a steakhouse in the region’s Midland heartland, a sign that producers are struggling to cover their operating costs.