Kasikorn Research Centre expects the baht to move within a range of 30.10-30.50 per US dollar. A key domestic factor to be monitored closely is November’s export data. External factors will include preparation for the first phase of the US-China trade deal. US economic data, to be released this week, includes new home sales in November and durable goods orders data. Meanwhile, the trading volume will likely be thin as most global markets enter the period of year-end holidays.

The baht last week stayed within a tight range, Kasikorn Research Centre said. The currency fell briefly before the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting, as investors awaited its economic forecast revision and signals for a policy rate outlook . However, the baht rose later in the week despite BOT’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged as expected by the market. And the US dollar faced a sell-off against safe-haven currencies, including the yen and the baht, after US President Donald Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives. Weaker-than-expected US home sales for November, and the Philly Fed Business outlook survey for December also weighed down US dollar sentiment. On Friday, December 20, the baht closed at 30.17/dollar versus 30.21 reported for Friday, December 13.

Speaking at the Thailand Economic Outlook hosted by Krungthep Turakij newspaper, Veerathai said today (December 23) GDP will expand 2.8 per cent next year. “The growth would be higher next year than this year, but it remains below potential of 3.5-4 per cent,” he told the seminar’s participants.

Exports would return to growth next year and drive the economy forward, he said.

The central bank recently cut its growth forecast to 2.5 per cent this year and predicted exports of goods and services to contract by 4.8 per cent in 2019 before returning to growth of 1.4 per cent next year.

As for the appreciation of the baht, Veerathai blamed the structure of the Thai economy.

Structural issues have emerged during economic slowdown; labour and baht appreciation are by-products of the underlying forces, he said.

“When we get a cough, it may be caused by inflammation inside our body and while medicine will relieve the symptoms, it cannot cure the real illness,” he said alluding to how cuts in the policy rate would not restrain baht appreciation.

Exporters and businesses have long complained about the rising baht against the US dollar and other key currencies, while academics say the large current account surplus combined with weak investment have been the real cause of baht appreciation. The baht has risen about 7 per cent against US dollar since early this year.

The central bank cut the policy rate twice this year, bringing it to the low level of 1.25 per cent.

The cut partly aimed to deter investors from parking their money in Thailand hoping to gain from the strengthening baht but has done nothing to make the baht weaker.

However, exports still maintained their value better than many countries in the region including South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore, during the first 11 months of 2019 when Thailand saw an export value $227.09 billion, a decrease of just 2.77 per cent compared to the previous year.

The conference is the latest in a series of measures aimed at promote Jinniu District and enhancing the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

“Jinniu District is among the five central urban areas of Chengdu City and an important commodity manufacturing base. The number of traditional commodity markets accounts for more than half of Chengdu City’s total, making it the No 1 economic area in the west of China,” said Yu Jian, deputy head of Jinniu District.

Jinniu has the potential to support overseas investments as it has a convenient logistics network and good transportation access. Situated around 20 kilometres from Shuangliu International Airport, it is the hub of urban tourism, medicine and health, and cutting-edge technology. Jinniu District’s major projects include Yisha Chengdu International Trade City, Yinxing Plaza, and Group 3, 5, and 6 commercial projects on Wukuaishi street, the electronic and artificial intelligence equipment manufacturing base that is seeking Thai investors to help it expand.

 “Jinniu District has the potential to support overseas investments as it has convenient logistics network and transportation.” – Yu Jian, deputy head of Jinniu District of Chengdu Municipal People’s Government.

The deputy head pointed to Yisha Chengdu International Trade City, the giant trade and exhibition centre showcasing products and services from worldwide manufacturers, luring more than 38,000 investors to invest in China, attracting 80,000-100,000 visitors daily, and with a value of 60 billion yuan (Bt258.5 billion) per year. The international trade city features more than 20 categories of products covering 400,000-plus items. The first phase comprises 7 exhibition zones covering clothes and apparel, fashion, IT, electrical items, and home décor accessories, as well as herbal products and traditional Chinese medicines for which Jinniu District is famed.

“Yisha Chengdu International Trade City also provides trade and exhibition centres for its member countries including Spain, Russia, Sri Lanka, and Japan. Thailand’s trade and exhibition centre is also being constructed to serve Thai businesses seeking a venue to display and market products in China, especially agricultural products which are popular in Chengdu. Investors, who want to invest in Jinniu Commerce Area, will be benefited from the VIP One-Stop Service provided by the government department which includes license and taxes benefits. Plus, there will be assistance on e-commerce knowledge transfer to leverage skills excellency and trade collaboration. Interpreters in different languages will also be provided to facilitate the communication,” said Yu Jian.

During the conference, Yisha Chengdu International Trade City and Sichuan Huiji Food signed agreements with major Thai companies MR DIY Bangkok and Active Plus Blue. It expects Thai investors to better understand the investment and business environment of Jinniu District and to promote and develop economic collaborations between the two countries further.

 The signing ceremony between Thai and Chinese companies 

Egat board chairman Kulit Sombatsiri said that the gas will be used by Egat power plants.

On December 4, the Energy Policy Administration Committee ordered both parties to enter into discussions on some details of the contract and try to sign the contract within this year.

The Egat board meeting early next year will also ask Egat to draw up a plan to procure the third lot of the liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Egat planned to procure and import LNG in two stages of 65,000 tonnes each in the spot markets. The first cargo will arrive at Rayong on December 28, and the second lot in early April next year.

The centre’s director, Anusorn Tamajai, said 12 careers faced high risk of layoffs and stagnant income. The first group comprises businesses or professionals related to providing services for newborns to 15-year-olds. The risk stems from the fact that the numbers in this group have been decreasing. Their numbers are estimated to be 12.7 million to 12.8 million next year given that the Thai population growth rate this year is only 0.18 per cent, the slowest in Asean. The total Thai population now is 69.3 million, or 0.9 per cent of global population. Thailand’s population will peak at 70 million (69.7 million) in 2025 before dropping to 65.4 million in 2050.

The population of the young age group will decrease to 10.4 million in 2027. However, a large proportion of children are in the deep South provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Satun, or about 23-24 per cent of total population in each province. But the first three provinces are facing economic hardship due to the unrest.

Anusorn said that he expected more childcare centres and kindergarten and primary schools to be shut down. This will adversely affect employment of teachers and other educators.

Those who are employed in counter services also will be hit hard as consumers will do more transactions online. Brokers and direct sales forces also would be adversely affected by online business. Those who are in print media, advertising, cable TV and satellite TV face a grim future. Employees or businesses in dirty manufacturing which cause climate change and pollution will be adversely affected. Taxi drivers have already been impacted by the emerging ride-hailing services such as GrabTaxi and GrabCar. Property leasing will not escape either. Traditional banks and financial institutions would be disrupted. Manufacturing of auto parts and obsolete IT manufacturing will be hit hard. People in high-end and low-end property development will face a hard time due to lack of demand in the high-end property and lack of purchasing power at the lower end.

Those who work in back office would be replaced by robots and AI, he predicted.

However, there are 10 careers that are expected to fare well. These include care of the elderly and rehabilitation business. Those who work for electronic platforms will have bright prospects. With growing e-commerce, those in the transportation and logistics businesses will benefit. Tourism and related services are expected to continue to grow. Medical services, healthcare and health foods will see expansion. Construction, rail system and communication systems will expand. Those who have knowledge to develop applications will be boosted by the IT revolution. Advance data analysts, insurance economists, actuaries and investment advisers are also expected to be thrive. New careers such as user-experience manager, content and social media manager and virtual reality consultant will have a bright future. Online educators and related services will find a promising future, he said.

He forecast that next year, more people will be laid off hence the Social Security Office has to make sure that the labourers are well protected. The rising ageing population will put high pressure on the social security fund, which needs to be reformed due to increasing compensation for laid-off workers and pension payment for retirees, he added.

Most financial institutions upgraded their ratings of the stock market by one or two notches, and said the benchmark Kospi will trade at an average 2,300 points, higher than the corresponding figure of 2,100 points this year. France-based financial institution BNP Paribas adjusted its rating on the South Korean market from underweight to overweight last week, saying the semiconductor market cycle has reached the bottom, and is set to start climbing next year. This signals a cyclical recovery.

Excess chip inventory — which has been detrimental to sales of new materials — will gradually dry up in 2020, along with a recovery in demand from data centers and smartphone manufacturers, it said in a report. It forecast the benchmark Kospi to be trading at an average 2,325 points.

In line with BNP Paribas, US-based Goldman Sachs last month also upgraded its valuation for the Korean market to overweight from market weight. It cited stabilization in the memory chip price, normalization of NAND and DRAM inventories and increase in demand for 5G services.

Another US-based firm, Morgan Stanley shifted its equal weight recommendation to overweight and picked Samsung Electronics and chipmaker SK hynix among other tech stocks as attractive investments.

The Kospi is expected to see a rally on the back of a strong won, and the Korean equity market will have attractive valuations compared to other emerging markets, under the condition that tensions surrounding the US-China trade war do not further escalate.

The firm said that Kospi-listed firms’ profit will increase by 30 percent at most next year, which echoes Credit Suisse’s latest briefing on the stock market on Thursday.

An official at the Seoul branch of the Swiss multinational firm said the profits of semiconductor, auto, refinery and chemicals will gain 30 percent in 2020, compared to this year with the chips industry leading the rally.

Japan-based Nomura Securities raised its stock price target for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix based on the rising price of DRAM and overall anticipation surrounding the chip industry. Samsung Electronics’ price was raised to 67,000 won per share ($57.70) from the current 60,000 won and SK hynix’s increased to 136,000 per share from 110,000 won.

But not all institutions voiced rosy outlooks, with Citigroup rating the country’s stock market as underweight.

“We are not especially bearish, but can see better opportunities elsewhere,” it said in a note published Nov. 29.

“While markets may overshoot into the new year, we would prefer to wait for the next dip before turning more bullish.”

Analysts often divide the global stock market into three categories — overweight, equal weight and underweight — based on their attractiveness.