Defaults in one of China’s richest provinces spook investors

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Defaults in one of China’s richest provinces spook investors

Dec 18. 2019
File Photo of Shandong /Credit: China Daily

File Photo of Shandong /Credit: China Daily
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Bloomberg News 

475 Viewed

Six privately owned companies in one of China’s wealthiest provinces have defaulted on their debt or come perilously close in the past three months. With 68.1 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) in outstanding debt among those six companies alone, the distress in Shandong has rattled even seasoned investors.

The problem isn’t the defaults themselves – other provinces have seen more and worse. It’s the practice common among Shandong companies of guaranteeing one anothers’ debts. Firms don’t have to make public these liabilities, leaving investors to wonder who’s on the hook and for how much. With the once-strong industrial economy flagging, the murky ties between the province’s private companies threaten to drag them all down together.

This is one of many challenges bond investors must grapple with in China now, after defaults onshore climbed from zero just a few years ago to 130.7 billion yuan ($18.7 billion) in 2019. In Shandong and elsewhere, it’s still unclear how the government will intervene. Policy makers have been increasingly willing to let weak companies fail, but they’re also under pressure to keep the economy growing and the markets stable.

As of now, Shandong’s city and local governments have stepped in with piecemeal relief. It’s uncertain whether the provincial government will do the same. As a result, the province’s firms risk entering a vicious cycle that “spreads solvency risks to the entire region, swamping the good credits along with the bad,” according to an October report from S&P Global Ratings.

The default rate for bonds issued by non-state companies across China increased to a record 4.5% in the first 10 months of 2019, Fitch Ratings said in a Dec. 3 report, adding that the figure might understate the true level of defaults given that some borrowers settle with bondholders privately rather than through clearing houses. The rate for state-owned companies was 0.2% thanks to financial support from the government and better access to funding from banks, Fitch said.

In Shandong, fears of contagion show up in unusual ways. In late October, bad news about a corn and steel conglomerate in the province dragged down the bonds from at least two seemingly unrelated provincial neighbors. Aluminum producer China Hongqiao Group and food distributor Shandong Sanxing Group had been known to back other companies’ debt, and investor concerns that they’d be responsible dragged their bonds to record lows.

Hongqiao tried to reassure its creditors, saying it doesn’t have a business relationship with the group and didn’t plan to offer any financial support. The three main international rating companies haven’t changed their assessments on the borrower since then, but investors remained unconvinced. The yield of one of its dollar bond hit 14% last week, a new high.

“Shandong’s privately-owned enterprise default rate isn’t particularly high compared to the national one,” said Jenny Huang, Director of China Corporate Research at Fitch Ratings. “But recently, the risks have exploded.”

Shandong is one of China’s oldest economic centers, built first on trade, then agriculture, mining and oil drilling. Not long ago, the economy was still booming, credit was cheap and private firms were on a spending spree, restrained only by limited access to capital. In communist-run China, state-owned banks tend to favor state-owned companies for loans.

So city governments encouraged the private sector to support itself. Cross-guarantees were one solution. They also concentrated the financial risks, says S&P analyst Cindy Huang.

“Cross-guarantees tend to be clustered around certain cities and regions rather than across the province,” she said. “They’re often between private, unlisted companies from either the same city, same sector or where CEOs know one another.”

It’s not clear how common cross-guarantees are in the rest of China, an information gap that heightens investors’ anxiety. There was one analyst who tracked them at Citic Securities, and he left the field earlier this year. His last survey, in 2018, suggested that cross-guarantees had made Shandong firms more vulnerable than anywhere else in the country.

In the last year, Shandong’s economy has slowed dramatically. Demand for industrial products is down overall; in the province, industrial profits fell 15.5% through October relative to a year earlier. It’s still China’s third-richest province, but through the first nine months of 2019, it grew by 5.4%, one of the slowest in China.

Every week now seems to bring news of a new default or firm under stress. Two companies, Shandong Yuhuang Chemical and Xiwang Group, have defaulted on 4 billion yuan ($572 million) of domestic notes since October. Investors are watching whether luxury clothing giant Shandong Ruyi Technology Group will repay a $344 million bond on Thursday. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the firm last week on heightened refinancing risks.

Some of Shandong’s firms may find some reprieve from local and city governments. State-owned Jining City Construction, for example, came to the rescue of Ruyi in October. It agreed to become the company’s second-largest shareholder and provide a guarantee for some of its debt. Even still, S&P downgraded and later withdrew Ruyi’s rating at the company’s request sending notes to record lows.

Chinese authorities have reasons to save jobs and preserve social stability, but it’s unlikely they’ll bail out every struggling firm and not always clear how relief will be allocated. The political will to rescue China’s private companies has been waning since Beijing allowed the first defaults in 2014.

That puts growing pressure on businesses and their bondholders to work out solutions by themselves. “The next step is to see if local companies can successfully refinance,” said Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit research and analysis at Moody’s. He echoed mounting calls for companies to provide more and better information to their investors. “In the long run, companies must become more transparent and improve corporate governance to restore the confidence of financial institutions.”

KBank gears up for risks and challenges next year

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KBank gears up for risks and challenges next year

Dec 18. 2019
Kattiya Indaravijaya

Kattiya Indaravijaya
By THE NATION

817 Viewed

Kasikornbank (KBank) will face the challenge of deceleration in the growth of the global and local economies next year, resulting from the prolonged US-China trade war, said president Kattiya Indaravijaya on Tuesday (December 17).

Some countries have already entered into a recession, she said, adding that the bank had estimated all the risks and challenges to come.

Another lies in head-hunting for top-notch local and foreign IT experts, especially data scientists and programmers, to enhance its digital banking services.

The bank, she said, has continued to seek out these IT geeks. “We visit leading international universities overseas every year to recruit crop of the cream IT students to work for the bank”.

She added that the bank expected loan growth of between 4 per cent and 6 per cent next year with the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) in the range of 3.6 per cent and 4 per cent.

Indonesia’s Medco Energi produces first oil from field in Thailand

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Indonesia’s Medco Energi produces first oil from field in Thailand

Dec 17. 2019
Bualuang oil field operated by Medco Energi Internasional in Thailand. (Handout/Medco Energi Internasional)

Bualuang oil field operated by Medco Energi Internasional in Thailand. (Handout/Medco Energi Internasional)
By Norman Harsono
The Jakarta Post

1,374 Viewed

Indonesian oil company Medco Energi Internasional is producing an initial 12,900 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from its offshore Bualuang oil field in Thailand.

The company, publicly listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as MEDC, said in a statement on Tuesday that production was expected to ramp up to 14,000 bopd once the company finished drilling wells by mid-2020. Medco did not reveal the targeted customer for its oil.

Medco took over Bualuang after acquiring the field’s previous owner, London-based Ophir Energy, for 408.8 million pounds (US$543.1 million) in May. The Indonesian company had planned to drill three wells, install new infrastructure and produce oil from Bualuang by this year’s fourth quarter.

“The integration of Medco Energi with Ophir Energy is going well with potential collaboration worth US$50 million each year,” said Medco chief executive officer Roberto Lorato in the statement.

The acquisition was meant to strengthen Medco’s international portfolio but the company surprised observers in August when it announced plans to sell off high-risk and high-investment assets in, among other countries, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Guinea, but not Thailand.

U.S. home starts exceed forecasts, permits highest since 2007

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U.S. home starts exceed forecasts, permits highest since 2007

Dec 18. 2019
File Photo

File Photo
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Katia Dmitrieva 

496 Viewed

Construction of new U.S. homes increased more than forecast in November and permits to build climbed to a 12-year high as the housing-market strengthened amid low mortgage rates, solid job growth, and optimistic buyers and builders.

Residential starts rose 3.2% to a three-month high 1.37 million annualized rate after an upwardly revised 1.32 million pace in the prior month, according to government figures released Tuesday. Permits, a proxy for future construction, increased 1.4% to an annualized 1.48 million pace.

The data indicate residential construction may add to fourth- quarter growth after contributing in the previous quarter for the first time since the end of 2017. Demand has been fueled by mortgage rates near a three-year low as the job market remains resilient and wage gains help put money into the pockets of potential homebuyers.

Construction of one-family homes rose to the highest since January, while permits for those dwellings increased to the highest level since July 2007.

The positive reading corroborate other housing data. Homebuilder sentiment soared to a 20-year high in December. The latest consumer sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan also showed an index measuring home-buying conditions rose to a five-month high in December. Upcoming data this month are forecast to show existing-home sales, which comprise the vast majority of transactions, and new-home purchases were little changed in November.

Groundbreakings for the multifamily category, which tends to be volatile and includes apartment buildings and condominiums, increased to a three-month high while permits also rose.

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for starts to rise to a 1.35 million pace from a previously reported 1.31 million in October. Two of four regions posted a gain in starts, led by a jump in the South to the fastest pace since March 2007. Starts in the West also advanced.

U.S. stocks inch higher on housing, factory data

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U.S. stocks inch higher on housing, factory data

Dec 18. 2019
File Photo

File Photo
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Todd White, Vildana Hajric 

474 Viewed

U.S. stocks inched higher Tuesday as manufacturing and housing data topped expectations, just as the sugar rush of a partial trade deal between the world’s two largest economies began to fade. The dollar gained while 10-year Treasuries slipped.

The S&P 500 index built on the previous session’s record-high close, which was underpinned by the partial U.S.-China trade agreement. Tuesday brought news that U.S. factory production last month rebounded by more than forecast, and that construction of new U.S. homes beat estimates as permits to build climbed to a 12-year high.

“Housing is an economic bellwether and its recent strength is further encouraged by the strength we’ve seen in manufacturing, as those two industries are typically related,” said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “But critical to the health of housing is ongoing trade tensions.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped from Monday’s record close, as Unilever tumbled in the wake of a sales-growth warning and led a slump in personal goods makers. U.K. shares were particularly volatile, and sterling sank the most since July versus the euro after Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed a legal change that revived the chances of a no-deal Brexit. Earlier in Asia, a benchmark stock gauge rose to the highest level since mid-2018. European government bonds drifted higher.

With a $44 trillion global gauge of stocks close to an all-time high and benchmarks in Europe and the U.S. also hovering near record levels, concerns linger over the details of the China accord. The warning by bellwether Unilever also took some of the shine from improved forecasts for the global economy.

Elsewhere, West Texas intermediate crude edged higher, while gold was little changed. Bitcoin’s woes continued, as the digital currency languished below $7,000.

Here are some key events to watch for this week:

–Policy decisions are due Thursday from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

–Federal Reserve district bank presidents including Eric Rosengren of Boston and John Williams of New York are scheduled to speak this week.

–Revised U.S. GDP data are due Friday.

–Friday brings quadruple witching in the U.S., the simultaneous expiration date of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Expect elevated trading volume, particularly in the last hour of trading.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

-The S&P 500 index was little changed at 3,192.23 as of 4:00 p.m. New York time, hitting the highest on record with its fifth consecutive advance.

-The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined 0.7% to 414.92, the first retreat in a week and the biggest drop in more than two weeks.

-The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index gained 0.1% to 7,525.28, hitting the highest in almost 20 weeks with its fifth consecutive advance.

-Germany’s DAX index declined 0.9% to 13,287.83, the first retreat in a week and the biggest drop in more than two weeks.

-The MSCI Emerging Market index jumped 1.3% to 1,102.51, hitting the highest in 18 months with its fifth consecutive advance.

Currencies

-The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index climbed 0.2% to 1,194.79, the biggest increase in more than three weeks.

-The euro was little changed at $1.1146, the strongest in more than six weeks.

-The British pound sank 1.6% to $1.3123, the weakest in almost two weeks on the biggest tumble in 13 months.

-The Japanese yen was little changed at 109.52 per dollar.

Bonds

-The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased one basis point to 1.88%.

-Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to -0.30%.

-Britain’s 10-year yield fell six basis points to 0.762%, the lowest in almost two weeks on the biggest fall in two weeks.

Commodities

-West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.1% to $60.89 a barrel, the highest in three months.

-Gold was little changed at $1,475.96 an ounce.

Two sites shortlisted for new airport in Nakhon Pathom

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Two sites shortlisted for new airport in Nakhon Pathom

Dec 18. 2019
Deputy Transport Minister Thaworn Senneam

Deputy Transport Minister Thaworn Senneam
By THE NATION

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The Department of Airports has shortlisted two locations, after a study of ten potential sites, for the construction of Nakhon Pathom Airport. The project aims to ease heavy traffic and delays at existing airports, where demands have exceeded capacities, especially from private jets, said Deputy Transport Minister Thaworn Senneam on Tuesday (December 17).

The two locations are Bang Len and Nakhon Chai Si districts in the province, both located near a motorway linking Bangyai to Kanchanaburi and take about an-hour drive form Bangkok.

The new airport will occupy 3,500 rai. It will have three passenger terminals, and a carpark for 5,200 vehicles

Thaworn said the project might come under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, adding that the department was expected to wrap up an investment study early next year before submitting a proposal to the Cabinet.

If the project is approved by all related parties, construction can begin in 2023 for commencement of operations in 2026.

Political situation to cause only short-term pressure on stock market: top official

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Political situation to cause only short-term pressure on stock market: top official

Dec 18. 2019
Kobsak Pootrakool

Kobsak Pootrakool
By THE NATION

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Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, said he personally believes the current political situation would cause only short-term pressure on the stock market.

He made the remark when speaking about capital markets at the seminar SEC Capital Market Symposium 2019, held on Tuesday (December 17) by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

He said stock investors should not panic as the fundamentals of listed companies are strong while the firms themselves are competitive.

Kobsak urged all parties to join forces to take the country forward.

He also believes the 2020 budget bill will sail through and take effect early next year.

Finance panel okays 7% VAT on products ordered online from foreign countries

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Finance panel okays 7% VAT on products ordered online from foreign countries

Dec 18. 2019
By The Nation

849 Viewed

The Finance Ministry aims to tax online products from foreign countries to provide fair competition to Thai manufacturers.

Finance permanent secretary Prasong Poontaneat said the tax reform committee approved the decision to collect 7 per cent value-added tax on goods ordered online from other counties and also cancel the tax-free status on imported products priced below Bt1,500 to be fair to Thai manufacturers, who produce similar goods and who are charged 7 per cent VAT. The policy is now awaiting the green light from the cabinet.

In reply to a question, principal adviser on Customs Control Development Chaiyuth Kumkun said that in the case where personal belongings in a foreign county were sent back to the host via mail, the owner of the belongings would not be taxed. Customs will consider such evidence as the item’s condition, a photo of the owner with the belongings, or any evidence to affirm that the items were bought in Thailand.

“If the value of the belonging isn’t worth enough to sell as an expensive second hand item, the officer might not tax the owner,” Chaiyuth said.

A tough year for emerging markets ends with money in bank

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A tough year for emerging markets ends with money in bank

Dec 18. 2019
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Yumi Teso, Hannah Dormido 

908 Viewed

Emerging markets are about to end a turbulent year in which U.S.-China trade tensions dominated headlines and central banks around the world came to rescue the global economy from falling into a recession.

Stocks, currencies and local-currency sovereign bonds of developing economies are all eking out gains for 2019 after last year’s biggest annual losses in three years.

“It was one of those weird years where the economic situation was worse than expected from the beginning of this year,” said Michael Kushma, the chief investment officer for global fixed income in New York at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “That makes investors worried that we have all the good news priced in and that next year it’s going to be much more challenging.”

Here are some highlights of 2019 across global emerging markets:

U.S. Trade War

As the U.S.-China trade war entered into another year, headlines about the dispute remained a major market driver as the imposition of reciprocal tariffs weighed on exports and economic growth outlooks globally. The International Monetary Fund made a fifth straight cut to its 2019 global growth forecast in October — to 3% from 3.2% in July — citing a broad deterioration as trade tensions undermined the expansion.

Sentiment turned more positive in the fourth quarter as the two largest economies in the world reached a phase-one trade deal in December, without providing much detail on when it will be signed, what China will buy more of, or when part two will start being discussed.

Amid speculation China would use a weaker currency to fight against the tariff impact, both the offshore and onshore yuan weakened past 7 per dollar in August. It was the first time since 2008 the onshore yuan fell below that level, spurring senior officials of the People’s Bank of China to reassure foreign companies the currency won’t continue to weaken significantly.

Global Easing

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off the rate-lowering cycle in Asia in February and has been the most aggressive among the major emerging-market central banks, with five cuts for a total of 135 basis points. This was followed by Indonesia with 100 points and the Philippines at 75 points.

Even those with already low policy rates joined the fray, with the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand reducing their rates by 50 basis points each to 1.25%. Malaysia cut once, in May, by 25 basis points.

In other regions, Turkey’s central bank delivered 1,200 basis points of cuts this year to 12% in pursuit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unconventional theory that high interest rates cause rather than curb price growth. Russia has lowered its policy rate by 150 basis points so far this year. Mexico reduced borrowing costs for the first time in five years, with cuts totaling 75 basis points so far in 2019.

Ukraine Bonanza

Ukraine’s newcomer President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who won a runoff in April, was caught up in the political whirlwind surrounding Trump’s impeachment probe. Congress is investigating whether Trump exercised diplomatic pressure on Zelenskiy for his own political gain.

But that wasn’t enough to deter investors from lapping up Ukraine’s bonds and currency. Foreign funds looking to reap returns on high real interest rates and a burgeoning local-debt market propelled the hryvnia to the best currency performance worldwide. Ukraine’s dollar bonds handed investors a 29% return through Monday, the most among all emerging markets.

Russia Rally

Russia’s currency, equities and bonds bounced back after a rocky 2018, with the ruble and stocks beating all other major emerging markets and bonds handing investors the biggest return among major emerging markets. A new round of U.S. sanctions imposed in August proved to be less severe than expected.

Russian stocks were also boosted by more generous payouts from state-controlled companies under pressure to hand back profits to the Finance Ministry as dividends.

Argentina Election Surprise

Argentine markets all but collapsed in the aftermath of leftist Alberto Fernandez’s surprise victory in mid-August’s primary vote, which led the nation to implement capital controls and re-profile some of its local debt. The peso was the worst-performing currency in the world in 2019.

Fernandez took office Dec. 10, and investors were still waiting to learn how his new government will tackle a debt load of more than $100 billion as the nation careens toward what may be its ninth default in two centuries.

Protests Erupt Across Latin America

Social movements turned into into violent protests across Latin America in 2019 as the region’s worsening income inequality was exacerbated by fuel-price hikes in Ecuador, higher subway fares in Chile, and alleged voter fraud and an ousted leader in Bolivia. It has left the region vulnerable to currency, stock and bond sell-offs as investors weigh the uncertainty that comes along with ravaged cities, new governments and rewritten constitutions.

Colombia also experienced its largest protests in years, with labor unions, students and indigenous groups leading a nationwide strike aimed at President Ivan Duque.

Hong Kong Protest

What started out as a peaceful rally in March against a proposed extradition bill in Hong Kong escalated into full blown violence, with the number of casualties and damage still rising. The U.S. approved the Hong Kong bill supporting the protesters on Nov. 28, though it’s still unclear whether or how it will impact the U.S.-China trade negotiations. What is clear is that the protests don’t seem to be dying down, with one of the biggest pro-democracy protests since June occurring as recently as Dec. 8.

Japan-South Korea Spat

The two nations’ own trade war stems largely from differences in perception as to whether Japan has provided sufficient compensation for its 1910-45 colonization of the Korean Peninsula.

In July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government placed export restrictions on specialized materials vital for South Korea’s tech industry, claiming the measure was intended to prevent high-tech exports from being illegally transferred to North Korea, which is seen as retaliation for South Korean court decisions demanding Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. pay compensation to victims of wartime forced labor.

Japan removed South Korea from its list of “white nations” considered safe enough to export strategic materials to in August, while less than two weeks after that, President Moon Jae-in’s government downgraded Japan from its list of most trusted trading partners.

In retaliation for the export curbs, South Korea decided not to extend the General Security of Military Information Agreement, a bilateral pact to share military intelligence on matters such as missile launches by North Korea. South Korea put a halt to its decision to withdraw from this agreement late November as the two nations agreed to continue export talks.

Eskom Issue

A crisis at South Africa’s Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. culminated in a decision by Moody’s Investors Service to cut the company’s debt outlook to negative from stable. Eskom provides about 95% of South Africa’s electricity. It has amassed about 450 billion rand ($31 billion) of debt.

The budget announced in February included a $4.6 billion cash injection over the next three years to help the company service debt and free up money for operations. The government has since announced a rescue plan for the utility and doubled the bailout.

The support has caused South Africa’s budget deficit to soar, putting the country’s sole remaining investment-grade credit rating of Baa3 with Moody’s at risk. On the operational side, the power cuts have already weighed on the rand and bonds, and present a huge risk to the economy due to the effect on business.

Aramco’s IPO

Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion from the world’s biggest initial public offering, closing a deal that became synonymous with the kingdom’s controversial crown prince and his plans to reshape the nation.

The IPO stands in contrast to its debut dollar-bond sale in April, which attracted more than $100 billion in orders. The demand allowed Aramco to issue $12 billion of bonds at lower yields than its sovereign parent.

Brazil’s Reform Fight

After years of political wrangling, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro managed to push a pension-reform bill through Congress in October. The bill’s passage was quickly followed by proposed legislation from Bolsonaro to exert greater presidential control over the federal budget. Pension reform has been the primary focus for Brazil’s investors for years. Bolsonaro’s rise, along with campaign promises to pass the bill, brought investors back to the country. Now, all eyes are on Brazil’s bloated tax system, the fate of which remains uncertain.

Pemex Rescue

The year was filled with attempts by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to make good on his campaign promise to rescue embattled state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos. The measures, which have ranged from tax breaks to direct capital injections, are an attempt to support the world’s most indebted oil company as it struggles to stem a decline in production.

The president’s attempts culminated in an oversubscribed $7.5 billion bond sale in September, which went toward reassuring investors of continuing Pemex bond demand, though a cloud of uncertainty still hangs over the company and the country.

Venezuela Defaults

Venezuela missed a payment in October on Petroleos de Venezuela’s 2020 notes — the country’s last bond not in default — setting it up for a legal showdown with holders over collateral that includes 50.1% shares of the company’s U.S. refiner Citgo Holding Inc. While the U.S. moved to temporarily block creditors from seizing the nation’s crown jewel abroad, there are signs of a legal battle ahead, as PDVSA bondholders tap a familiar aide for high-profile investors in debt disputes.

Elections in Asia

In the world’s most expensive election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was re-elected in May with a wider majority. Since then, the government’s biggest pro-business move has been the cut in corporate taxes, although bonds have failed to rally in the fourth quarter amid concerns for India’s fiscal health and the failure to issue the country’s first foreign-currency debt.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo secured his second and final term in office by a larger majority in the April elections, which was initially marred by protests by opposition. Jokowi’s subsequent cabinet announcement appeared to offer an olive branch to the opponents, while including business-friendly appointments. Investors so far appear favorable to the announced reforms, although there have been some back and forth on regulation.

Thailand’s first election since the military coup in 2014 proved to be contentious, with General Prayuth Chan-Ocha only re-elected as prime minister three months after voting closed, leading a coalition with a razor-thin majority. Despite the uncertainty, the baht remains the top performing currency in Asia in 2019 so far.

Euro-Bond Frenzy

In a bumper year for yield-hunting, emerging-market borrowers sold bonds at dirt-cheap yields, still a lot more attractive than the negative returns from developed economies. But what made 2019 special was the rise of the euro as a borrowing currency. From China to Ivory Coast, governments of all sizes and shapes couldn’t have enough of it as yields plunged.

For the first time since the shared currency was created in 1999, annual bond issuance in euro by emerging-market sovereigns crossed the 50 billion euro ($56 billion) mark. As of Dec. 16, the total amount stood at 52.4 billion euros, far outstripping the previous record of 39.9 billion euros collected over the whole of 2016, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. While the U.S. currency remains the top choice of emerging-market governments, euro-denominated securities now account for 28% of their borrowing abroad. That’s up from 21% in 2013.

U.S. factory output rebounds even without Post-GM strike bump

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U.S. factory output rebounds even without Post-GM strike bump

Dec 18. 2019
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By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Reade Pickert

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U.S. factory production rebounded by more than forecast in November and rose excluding a surge in auto production following the end of the General Motors Co. strike, in a sign of stabilization in manufacturing.

The 1.1% increase in manufacturing output, the biggest gain since early 2018, followed a 0.7% decrease in October, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday, topping the median estimate of economists for a 0.8% gain. Production of motor vehicles and parts jumped 12.4%, the most in a decade; excluding that category, factory output rose 0.3%, the first gain in three months.

Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, rose 1.1% after a 0.9% decrease.

The increase is welcome to manufacturers, who have faced headwinds throughout the year including persistent trade- policy uncertainty and slowing global demand. Even with the gain in November, though, factory output fell 0.8% from a year earlier, and figures were revised lower for September and October, indicating that activity remains relatively subdued.

This month’s proposed initial trade accord between the U.S. and China could bode well for output in 2020 if confidence improves. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s survey Monday showed the outlook for orders among manufacturers in the state advanced to its strongest since February. The Institute for Supply Management’s national factory index has signaled contraction for four months, however.

Other sectors that saw gains in the Fed data included information processing equipment, foods and tobacco and primary metals. Home electronics, clothing and chemicals posted declines.

The report adds to signs economic growth is holding up in the fourth quarter amid indications that consumer spending, the largest part of gross domestic product, will be softer than anticipated. A separate report earlier Tuesday showed construction of new U.S. homes increased more than forecast in November and permits to build climbed to a 12-year high.

Capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, rebounded to 77.3% from 76.6%.

Utility production rose 2.9% after falling 2.4% the prior month, as below-average November temperatures in much of the country supported demand. Mining production fell 0.2%, with oil and gas well drilling declining 3.9%.

The Fed’s monthly data are volatile and often get revised. Manufacturing, which makes up about three-fourths of total industrial production, accounts for about 11% of the U.S. economy.