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China’s soybean deal signals early jump into 2021 U.S. market (nationthailand.com)

China’s soybean deal signals early jump into 2021 U.S. market

InternationalDec 11. 2020Sacks of soybeans sit in a wholesale grains market in Shanghai on June 16, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Qilai Shen. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Michael Hirtzer, Kim Chipman

China, the world’s top soybean importer, is getting an early jump on purchases from the U.S. for next year.

The Asian nation bought 126,000 metric tons for shipping after Sept. 1, the start of the next marketing year, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed Thursday. That’s the earliest for a forward purchase since 2016 and confirms a Bloomberg report from Dec. 7.

Dry weather has threatened yield prospects in South America, potentially limiting available supplies from the harvest beginning in February. That may have prompted the earlier-than-usual deal for U.S. soybeans that won’t be planted until April. China’s imports rose to a record in November from a year earlier on demand for feed to bolster the domestic hog herd.

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 1.3% to $11.7825 a bushel at 10:03 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade after reaching $11.81, the highest for a most-active contract in more than a week. A monthly USDA report due at 11 a.m. may show tightening global inventory, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

On Thursday, Brazil’s soybean-crop estimate was reduced by 0.4% to 134.5 million tons by state-run agriculture agency Conab. That was less than analysts expected and compared with 124.8 million in the latest season.

“The South American crop we already know will be a late crop, so China stepping into the market early shouldn’t be at all surprising.” Kevin Ross, chairman of the National Corn Growers Association and an Iowa farmer of soybeans, corn and cattle, said in a telephone interview. “They are covering their needs a little quicker.”

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 2.6% to $5.9825 a bushel in Chicago after reaching $5.99, the highest since Nov. 30.

USDA data confirmed a bulk cargo of U.S. white wheat was sold to China, and futures have climbed amid speculation that more deals loom.

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U.S. crackdown on Facebook gets thumbs up from EU’s Vestager (nationthailand.com)

U.S. crackdown on Facebook gets thumbs up from EU’s Vestager

InternationalDec 11. 2020Margrethe Vestager, competition commissioner of the European Commission, during an interview in her office in Brussels on Feb. 25, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Geert Vanden Wijngaert. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Aoife White

Margrethe Vestager, the European Union’s antitrust chief and scourge of tech giants, gave her seal of approval to U.S. antitrust action against Facebook Inc.

She told lawmakers in Brussels that the U.S. lawsuit shows how technology superpowers are increasingly facing tougher scrutiny around the world. Minutes after she spoke Thursday, German regulators started a fresh antitrust probe into Facebook’s Oculus virtual-reality headsets.

“It’s a sign that the debate on tech dominance has been shifting over the last couple of years,” Vestager said of the U.S. antitrust move in an online meeting with EU lawmakers. “You see that in almost every jurisdiction. You see it in Canada and Australia” as well as the recent U.S. case against Google.

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority this week even proposed a specialist tech regulator with enhanced power to block deals.

European regulators are planning tougher rules on so-called internet gatekeepers next week that “will enable us to be so much quicker” in moving against companies that violate potential new rules for how they treat smaller rivals, she said.

Vestager, who has slapped Alphabet Inc.’s Google with huge fines, said the complaints filed by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general took a different approach from the EU. She said her probes into advertising are “not as advanced.”

Germany’s antitrust authority, known as the Bundeskartellamt, opened an investigation Thursday into Facebook because using Oculus’ latest virtual-reality Quest 2 glasses requires a Facebook account. Oculus was previously operated separately from Facebook, it said, and existing Oculus accounts can no longer be used for the new hardware.

“We intend to examine whether and to what extent this tying arrangement will affect competition,” the authority’s president Andreas Mundt said in an emailed press release.

Oculus devices are not currently sold in Germany, a Facebook spokesperson said. The company “will cooperate fully with the Bundeskartellamt and are confident we can demonstrate there is no basis to the investigation.”

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U.S. inflation measure rose by more than forecast in November (nationthailand.com)

U.S. inflation measure rose by more than forecast in November

InternationalDec 11. 2020Trucks pull shipping containers through the West Basin Container Terminal at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, Calif., on Nov. 20, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Bing Guan. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Reade Pickert

A measure of prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in November by more than forecast as costs of transportation services and apparel accelerated, though inflationary pressures elsewhere remained subdued as the pandemic continues to curb activity.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% from the prior month after no change in October, Labor Department data showed Thursday. Compared with a year earlier, the gauge rose 1.2%. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also advanced 0.2% from the prior month and increased 1.6% from a year earlier.

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.1% gain in both the CPI and core measure.

While services costs picked up last month by the most since July, a broadening of inflation will likely take time as the nation awaits the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines. Currently, merchants have limited leeway to charge customers more as unemployment remains elevated and a surge in infections prompts some states and cities to reimpose restrictions on business.

The report showed the cost of transportation services jumped 1.8%, the most in four months. Airfares rose 3.5% after a 6.3% increase a month earlier, and motor vehicle insurance advanced 1.1% in November. Lodging away from home was 3.9% more expensive than in October, the largest gain since 2005.

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Premium chocolate emerges as winner in pandemic (nationthailand.com)

Premium chocolate emerges as winner in pandemic

InternationalDec 11. 2020Chocolate Santa Claus figures produced by Lindt & Spruengli on display inside a department store in Berlin on Dec. 6, 2017. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Krisztian Bocsi. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Corinne Gretler

As the coronavirus pandemic leads to the collapse of one retailer after another, Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Spruengli has been gaining U.S. market share and rival Laederach is opening its biggest store yet in New York.

Chocolate has emerged as one product that consumers won’t do without in trying times. The U.S. market for it expanded at unusually fast double-digit rates in June and July and it was still higher than pre-covid growth levels in September, according to Sanford C. Bernstein, which cited Nielsen data.

Laederach is opening a 2,500 square-foot shop on 5th Avenue in New York Thursday near Rockefeller Center. The family-owned brand is known in Switzerland for plates of fresh chocolates that have a shelf life of just a few weeks.

The plans to open a big brick-and-mortar store stand out after the pandemic led to bankruptcies of retailers like Brooks Brothers and J.C. Penney. Consumers looking to treat themselves to affordable luxuries have turned to chocolate, according to Bernstein analyst Bruno Monteyne.

Laederach entered the U.S. a year ago, betting it will soon become one of its biggest markets outside Switzerland.

“We don’t have any doubts that after the pandemic sales will come back and grow again as they have been,” Chief Executive Officer Johannes Laederach said in a phone interview. “As a family-owned business, we can think long-term.”

Laederach doesn’t publish regular financial details, but had revenue of 120 million Swiss francs ($135 million) in 2016 and sales growth of about 14% at the end of February. The company sells its products in 15 countries, including Germany, Singapore, and Canada. The chain also plans to open a store in Washington D.C. in February.

Lindt, known for its Lindor balls, has also done well in Europe lately, with average value growth of 25% in the second half. That may bode well for the Christmas season, after chocolate makers faced a weak Easter period earlier in the pandemic.

Shares of the chocolatier traded 0.4% higher at 12:38 p.m. in Zurich.

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Jobless claims spiked in the U.S. last week, with 853,000 people seeking new benefits (nationthailand.com)

Jobless claims spiked in the U.S. last week, with 853,000 people seeking new benefits

InternationalDec 11. 2020

By The Washington Post · Eli Rosenberg

The number of new unemployment claims rose sharply to 853,000 last week, an increase of 137,000 from the week before, another sign of the toll the pandemic is taking on the labor market.

The number of claims leapt over 800,000 for the first time since the week ending Oct. 10, when they came in at 842,000.

A large spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, particularly since October, has rattled large parts of the economy. There are now more than 1 million new cases of coronavirus each week in the United States, and the country shattered a record on Wednesday with more than 3,000 deaths from the disease. Hospitals in many parts of the country are overwhelmed and some state and local jurisdictions are imposing fresh restrictions to try and curb the spike.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is trying to reach a deal on a new relief package but those talks have so far failed to produce a consensus plan.

The new burst of jobless claims was slightly larger than the last two big jumps, for that October week, when they rose about 75,000 and in early August, when claims rose 133,000, making it the largest jump in claims since millions began flooding the system at the pandemic’s outset in March.

An additional 427,600 claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the program for gig and self-employed workers, according to data released Thursday by the Department of Labor.

Economists have been warning for months about coming damage to the economy if Congress failed to authorize another stimulus package to help prop up struggling businesses and households. The labor market has in general fared better than the most dire projections during the pandemic’s early months, but has been flashing warning signs for weeks.

The 245,000 jobs added in November were the lowest number added since the recovery began in May, and a sign that December’s report could go into the negative. The number of unemployment claims is another concerning data point.

The number of people claiming benefits in all the programs was just over 19 million, although officials have warned that tally may be inflated due to data processing issues compounded by the United States’ patchwork unemployment system.

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ECB Boosts Crisis Stimulus With More Bond-Buying, Bank Loans (nationthailand.com)

ECB Boosts Crisis Stimulus With More Bond-Buying, Bank Loans

InternationalDec 11. 2020The European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters stands on the bank of the River Main in Frankfurt, Germany, on April 28, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Alex Kraus. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Piotr Skolimowski

The European Central Bank escalated its efforts to shield the euro zone from a possible double-dip recession with another burst of monetary stimulus to lock in low interest rates at least until the pandemic crisis is over.

Policymakers increased and extended emergency bond purchases, and approved more long-term loans on cheap terms for another year. The euro jumped.

Highlights:

– The Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program was increased by 500 billion euros ($606 billion) to 1.85 trillion euros, and extended it by nine months to at least the end of March 2022. Reinvestments will be made until at least the end of 2023.

– An older bond-buying program will continue to run at a monthly pace of 20 billion euros until shortly before interest rates rise.

– Favorable terms on the ECB’s TLTRO-III bank lending program will be extended by 12 months to June 2022, and the ECB will make three new offers under the program next year. Total amount banks can borrow raised to 55% of banks’ stock of eligible loans, from 50%.

– Four additional pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations (PELTROs) will be offered in 2021 “to provide an effective liquidity backstop.”

– The easing of collateral rules announced earlier this year will be extended to June 2022. It will reassess the measures before the end date.

– Interest rates remained unchanged, with the deposit rate at -0.5%.

“All these steps are real central-bank engineering — something Lagarde called ‘recalibration’ at the October meeting — but no actual stepping up of monetary stimulus,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “Instead, the ECB’s main aim is to extend the current level of monetary accommodation.”

The decision came as European Union leaders moved closer to resolving a dispute over a 1.8 trillion-euro joint fiscal package that would put the region on a firmer footing for 2021.

The ECB aims to keep financial conditions loose in the face of mounting debt burdens as governments pump fiscal aid to companies and households. The economy is almost certainly shrinking again, with many shops and restaurants restaurants forced to close to to contain infections.

Also in the background is the risk of a no-deal Brexit. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who held talks over dinner on Wednesday, agreed to give both sides until Sunday to try to bridge their differences.

The euro’s recent surge against the dollar is another headwind for the ECB, putting downward pressure on inflation by making imports cheaper. The single currency rose 0.4% to an intra-day high of $1.2126 following the decision, while German bonds erased gains.

“For me, the last euro downside risk of the year has passed,” said Jordan Rochester, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura.

Central bankers have been signaling a new round of stimulus for weeks, stressing the need to keep support measures running at least until an economic recovery is entrenched. Covid-19 vaccines are only just being rolled out, and the economic scars from the pandemic will last well past the end of the health emergency.

Chief economist Philip Lane has also stressed the need to get inflation, which is currently below zero, back on its pre-pandemic path toward the goal of just-under 2% as soon as possible.

The Governing Council repeated its pledge to keep stimulus in place until it “judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over.”

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Trump turns to Congress for help in his election fight (nationthailand.com)

Trump turns to Congress for help in his election fight

InternationalDec 10. 2020President Trump is pictured on Dec. 5, 2020, in Valdosta, Ga. Trump’s congressional allies met privately to pitch a plan about contesting the results of the presidential election. MUST CREDIT: Washington Post photo by Jabin Botsford 

By The Washington Post · Rachael Bade, Josh Dawsey, Tom Hamburger

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is shifting his focus to Congress after the courts roundly rejected his bid to overturn the results of the election, pressuring congressional Republicans into taking a final stand to keep him in power.

Trump’s push is part of a multipronged approach as he also seeks to lobby state and federal lawmakers to give him cover for his unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud, as well as rally support for a last-gasp legal challenge in the Supreme Court that election law experts almost universally dismiss.

The president has been calling Republicans, imploring them to keep fighting and more loudly proclaim the election was stolen while pressing them on what they plan to do. He spoke to Arizona GOP Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward and Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., head of the conservative Republican Study Committee, on Wednesday, and is expected to meet Thursday at the White House with several state attorneys general. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer and point man in the legal fight, has been making similar calls from the hospital, where he is being treated for covid-19.

The president also has enlisted Vice President Mike Pence to reach out to governors and other party leaders in key states to see what else can be done to help the president. A person familiar with the calls said Pence has not exerted pressure for lawmakers to take specific actions and sees them as “checking in.”

The individual spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly. The vice president’s office declined to comment. Tim Murtaugh of the Trump campaign also declined to comment.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Trump’s conservative allies in the House have been privately buttonholing GOP senators, seeking to enlist one to join in objecting to slates of electors on Jan. 6, according to multiple people familiar with their effort who requested anonymity to discuss their plans.

On that day, Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes and declare Joe Biden as the 46th president – with Pence presiding. But if a member of the House and Senate challenge a state’s results, the whole Congress would vote – and the GOP plotting all but assures the routine process could take a dramatic turn, forcing Republicans to choose between accepting the election results or Trump’s bid to overturn the outcome.

Trump has called a number of informal, campaign and White House advisers and asked for help, according to three people who have spoken to him and discussed the calls on the condition of anonymity.

“The request is more, can you feel people out to see if they think the election is a fraud, and are you willing to help us overturn it,” said one person familiar with Trump’s calls, who described it as a “last-ditch effort.” “He’s asking people to check in with their contacts in various battleground states to measure whether there is an appetite to take action from the legislature. He says, ‘Why don’t you see what this person says? Why don’t you see what that person says?”

The pressure on Republicans will grow more intense after the electors meet in each state Monday and cast their votes and as Trump’s hopes in the courts continue to fade. Republicans who have spent four years catering to Trump’s desires could face a choice for which they will be judged in the 2022 midterm elections and 2024 if they have presidential ambitions as the GOP has shown unfettered loyalty to Trump.

Biden won the election with 306 electoral college votes to Trump’s 232, and he leads the national popular vote by more than 7 million. Trump, who has refused to concede, has repeatedly pushed baseless claims and outright falsehoods, insisting that the election was rigged.

Courts and judges across the country have flatly rejected the claims of the Trump campaign and his allies, citing the lack of substantial evidence for his allegations of voter fraud. The effort reached a new nadir on Tuesday when the Supreme Court denied a bid by allies of Trump to reverse Biden’s win in Pennsylvania. Losses also continue to pile up in Arizona, Nevada and Michigan.

None of the handful of lawsuits that remain outstanding are expected to ultimately go Trump’s way. In Wisconsin, a challenge to the results of a partial recount remains pending before a state circuit judge, and a separate federal suit filed by Trump is also unresolved. In Georgia, a small number of suits – including a last-ditch effort by the Republican National Committee – is also still pending.

Rebuffed by the courts, Trump is seeking to enlist another branch of government – Congress – to do his bidding. Some of his fiercest Hill allies are taking up the charge and pressuring their GOP colleagues to join the effort.

Trump called Johnson Wednesday morning, requesting that the conservative leader rally House Republicans to sign onto an amicus brief in an 11th hour Texas lawsuit seeking unprecedented judicial intervention in disallowing the results from four key swing states that went for Biden: Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Johnson eagerly obliged, emailing all House Republicans to solicit signatures for the long-shot Texas case.

In the email, Johnson wrote that Trump “will be anxiously awaiting the final list to review,” ensuring Republicans knew the president would be apprised of who signed on and who didn’t.

“Most of my Republican colleagues in the House, and countless millions of our constituents across the country, now have serious concerns with the integrity of our election system,” Johnson said in a statement. “The purpose of our amicus brief will be to articulate this concern and express our sincere belief that the great importance of this issue merits a full and careful consideration by the court.”

Separately, more than two dozen members of the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives signed a letter to Trump requesting that he direct Attorney General William Barr to appoint a special counsel to investigate “irregularities” in the election – though Barr himself said last week that the Justice Department had found no evidence to overturn the election results.

In the Senate, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., announced that he would hold a hearing on election “irregularities” on Dec. 16 – two days after the electoral college casts its votes.

Many Republicans have echoed Trump’s baseless claims. Ward, who tweeted that she spoke to Trump, reiterated many of the claims about alleged problems with the election that she and her lawyers have been making unsuccessfully in court in recent weeks. The Arizona Supreme Court rejected her latest case, a formal election contest seeking to annul Biden’s victory, on Tuesday evening, affirming a lower-court ruling that found no evidence of misconduct, fraud or widespread errors.

In Michigan, pressure on state legislators to intervene with the selection of electors continues with daily calls to specific Republican lawmakers in Lansing from Jenna Ellis and other members of the president’s legal team. A state legislative staffer said Wednesday that among the items being discussed by Republicans is whether to intervene or support the Texas case Trump is staking everything on.

On Wednesday, House Republicans in Lansing also issued a statement calling for subpoena powers to be granted to the House Oversight Committee to investigate claims of fraud in the state’s ballot count. Separately, by a vote of 4-3, the Michigan Supreme Court Wednesday rejected a legal appeal of a case challenging the Michigan results.

At the same time, attorneys general in 17 states Trump won tried to apply pressure on the Supreme Court to take up the Texas complaint filed by state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Trump ally. The court has told the four targeted states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia – to respond by Thursday afternoon.

States have constitutional authority to set the rules of an election, and it is almost unheard of for another state to challenge them. But those states supporting Texas said they are protecting their own voters.

Trump has turned it into something of a showdown at the Supreme Court, writing on Twitter Wednesday, “This is the big one. Our Country needs a victory!”

Trump has continued to call state lawmakers in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, advisers say, following the news closely in all three states.

The Jan. 6 date in Congress looms large as Trump’s last chance, with the purpose of calls to state lawmakers to get them to pressure members of Congress. Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala., has said he will challenge the results though it is unclear how many slates of electors he and other Trump allies plan to contest.

The question is whether they can find a Senate Republican to join their effort to trigger votes in the House and Senate.

Earlier this week, Brooks and Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., leader of the House Freedom Caucus, met privately with the Senate Republican Steering Committee leaders, including Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Ted Cruz, R-Texas. According to people familiar with the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the House members pitched both men on their plan and made clear that they need a Senate Republican to join their effort.

The offices of both senators declined to comment on the meeting or whether the senators would heed the request. Asked about the matter Tuesday, Cruz dodged the question and said the courts would be the final decision on the election.

“There are multiple lawsuits raising allegations of fraud and irregularities in this election,” Cruz said. “We need to allow the judicial process to work its way through and resolve those claims.”

Conservatives also have been eyeing Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., who may have future presidential ambitions and would join the effort to make a last stand for Trump.

Republicans also hope to recruit Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., who is locked in a competitive Georgia runoff election set for Jan. 5. Conservatives believe that if she were to announce that she will join the House effort and object to state electors, Loeffler could rally the GOP base and secure her election against Democrat Raphael Warnock.

Loeffler’s office did not return a request for comment, but one individual familiar with the recruitment process said conservatives have been in touch with her.

If the whole Congress is forced to vote, it would likely fail in the Democratic-controlled House and face resistance in the Senate.

“It’s just simply madness,” said Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah. “The idea of supplanting the vote of the people with partisan legislators, is, is so completely out of our national character that it’s simply mad. Of course the president has the right to challenge results in court, to have recounts. But this effort to subvert the vote of the people is dangerous and destructive of the cause of democracy.”