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OPEC+ closes in on deal as talks focus on gradual taper of cuts (nationthailand.com)

OPEC+ closes in on deal as talks focus on gradual taper of cuts

InternationalDec 04. 2020A flame burns off waste gas at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 1, 2018. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Simon Dawson. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Javier Blas, Salma El Wardany, Grant Smith, Dina Khrennikova

OPEC+ is closing in on a deal to gently ease output curbs after days of fractious negotiations that revealed deep cracks at the core of the cartel.

After direct talks, Russia and Saudi Arabia have thrashed out a plan to take to other members, according to one delegate. Others also said a deal was close, but the details remain unclear. Discussions have focused on a gradual relaxation of output cuts over several months, and according to one delegate there could be a one-month delay before the tapering starts.

The proposals, if accepted by all of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, would tweak the current agreement — struck during the depths of the pandemic in April — that allows 1.9 million barrels a day of additional crude back on the market from Jan. 1. It’s not clear yet whether the proposals would return that same volume of production over a longer period, or a different amount.

OPEC has underpinned the recovery in oil prices with its historic cuts this year and the latest round of talks is testing its unity — and credibility. Negotiations have been unusually tense amid a clash between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the meeting on Thursday was pushed back by two days because of the deadlock.

“Ministers are inching closer to a compromise that should break the impasse,” Energy Aspects Ltd. co-founder Amrita Sen said in a note. “OPEC+ officials are debating a more limited adjustment to the current deal than the proposed three-month delay.”

Oil in London was down about 0.5% at 10:51 a.m local time, trading near $48.

Importantly, the deal is likely to keep the oil market in deficit throughout the first quarter, allowing OPEC to drain bloated inventories. If the group had gone ahead with the full 1.9 million barrels a day increase on Jan. 1, the group’s economists calculated that the market would have flipped into surplus.

A gentler tapering of the cuts could offer a potential compromise after days of talks, offering something to members that are concerned about the fragility of the market amid a second wave of the virus, and also to nations that are impatient to raise production. The Russian government, after internal talks with its own oil companies, is ready to agree to a gradual easing of supply curbs within the first quarter of 2021, said a person familiar with the discussions.

OPEC+ rescued the oil market this year from an unprecedented slump, slashing production as the pandemic crushed demand. While crude has surged in recent weeks, a new wave of virus infections is hitting the global economy.

Fractious talks earlier this week raised the specter of the deal falling apart, which would sink prices and batter an industry that spans from tiny nations like Gabon to corporate giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp.

The intensity of the fight between Saudi Arabia and the UAE took OPEC-watchers by surprise, as the pair have long been staunch allies. But Abu Dhabi has been pursuing a more independent oil policy and wants to pump more.

Over the summer, Abu Dhabi’s impatience led it to casting aside its usual obedience to cartel discipline, and pump more crude than its quota allowed. The Saudis were furious, and summoned UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei to Riyadh for a public dressing down.

While the UAE subsequently atoned, people familiar with its oil policy say Abu Dhabi believes the current quota is unfair, and is keen to make the most of massive investments in production capacity. It’s also planning a new regional price benchmark based around its Murban crude variety, which needs the kind of volumes that clash with production limits.

If a deal is eventually crafted, it will be scrutinized for its ability to keep the coalition together and disciplined. Tensions are expected to reemerge next year.

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Service industries in U.S. expand at a more moderate pace (nationthailand.com)

Service industries in U.S. expand at a more moderate pace

InternationalDec 04. 2020A worker sets up outdoor seating at a restaurant in Baltimore on Nov. 20, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Al Drago. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Henry Ren

U.S. service industries expanded at a more moderate, yet healthy pace in November, tempered by softer growth in orders and business activity that remain constrained by the coronavirus.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services index fell to 55.9 during the month from 56.6 in October, according to data released on Thursday. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, and the November figure was in line with the 55.8 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Consecutive monthly declines in the gauge underscore the pandemic-related challenges faced by service industries that include leisure and hospitality, travel, dining and retail. While still robust, odds of an acceleration of growth at service providers are diminished by a resurgence of Covid-19 and the onset of cooler temperatures.

“Respondents’ comments are mixed about business conditions and the economy,” Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. “Most companies are cautious as they navigate operations amid the pandemic and the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election.”

At the same time, sectors such as information and finance have remained strong throughout the pandemic. A consumer shift to online purchases also indicates retailers and transportation companies will continue expanding during the holiday-shopping season.

Fourteen service industries reported growth in November, led by transportation and warehousing. Health care, food services, construction and retail also expanded.

The ISM’s index of new orders at service providers eased 1.6 points to 57.2. The measure of service-related business activity, which parallels the ISM’s factory production index, fell to 58 from 61.2 a month earlier.

The group’s measure of services employment increased 1.4 points to 51.5, marking the third straight month in which respondents indicated payrolls gains. The government’s monthly jobs report on Friday is projected to show employment rose 475,000 in November, indicating the economy was still adding workers but at a slower pace.

ISM’s gauge of prices paid by service providers rose to an eight-year high of 66.1, indicating accelerating costs for materials and services, partially due to shortages of personal protective equipment.

Meanwhile, a measure of inventory sentiment dropped to 49.9 from 51.1, the second-lowest in records back to 1997 and indicating more service providers see their stockpiles as being too low.

A separate ISM report Tuesday showed factory activity also cooled in November but remained robust. Difficulties of hiring workers and temporary shutdowns for sanitation will likely limit manufacturing growth potential, the ISM said.

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Momentum builds for bipartisan $908 billion stimulus package as more GOP senators express support (nationthailand.com)

Momentum builds for bipartisan $908 billion stimulus package as more GOP senators express support

InternationalDec 04. 2020

By The Washington Post · Jeff Stein, Mike DeBonis, Seung Min Kim

WASHINGTON – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke Thursday amid growing momentum for a targeted coronavirus-relief deal, illustrating how Congress has snapped into action amid a surge in new cases and deaths.

They also discussed reaching a deal on a spending bill to avert a government shutdown on Dec. 11.

“We had a good conversation,” McConnell, R-Ky., said after his discussion with Pelosi. “I think we’re both interested in getting an outcome, both on the [spending bill] and on a coronavirus package.”

The talks – their first since the Nov. 3 election – came shortly after a growing number of lawmakers have rallied behind a $908 billion bipartisan spending bill that would aim to buttress parts of the economy over the next several months. While some of these lawmakers stopped short of endorsing every part of the proposal, many said the offer was solid enough that it should be used as the basis for negotiations, a sentiment that Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., expressed on Wednesday.

Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa; Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; John Cornyn, R-Texas; and Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., signaled their openness to the package, which had been unveiled by a group of moderate Republican and Democratic senators on Tuesday. The measure is more than what Senate Republicans had originally offered but less than what House Democrats had wanted, but it is designed to try and provide immediate relief to some parts of the economy as the pandemic enters a dangerous and increasingly deadly phase.

Graham said he’s “never been more hopeful that we’ll get a bill … the $908 billion bill, that’s the one I support.” He said he had talked to President Donald Trump about the measure “extensively.”

The two top congressional Democrats – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. – on Wednesday called the bipartisan offer an appropriate basis for stimulus negotiations, a significant retreat from their previous demands for a much large stimulus package. President-elect Joe Biden has also urged lawmakers to come together on an interim deal during the lame duck session of Congress.

Trump on Thursday also backed quick approval of a stimulus package. A White House spokesman clarified that Trump was speaking in support of the narrow measure introduced by McConnell, not the bipartisan stimulus plan.

“I think we are getting very close. I want it to happen,” Trump told reporters.

On Thursday, Ernst and Cornyn expressed measured support for the developing talks. Ernst, a member of the Senate Republican leadership team, did not dismiss the viability of the $908 billion framework despite expressing concerns about some of its policy provisions. Cornyn also said senior Democrats’ embrace of the bipartisan plan “represents progress.”

“I think it’s moving in the right direction,” Cornyn said, adding he remained concerned about the structure of state and local funding.

Grassley, the chair of the Senate finance committee, also signaled he’d be willing to accept the bipartisan framework if the details are right. “It’s a little high for me but more important for me are the things that are in it. And if everything in it has bipartisan support … the figure might not be the biggest thing,” he said.

Cramer, an ally of the president’s, also sounded a positive note about the push: “I like the effort. It strikes the right balance of compromise, and it’s a number that’s doable.”

Although there has been a sudden burst of bipartisan momentum for the package since Tuesday, it remains an incomplete legislative proposal that has not been drafted as a formal piece of legislation yet. Still, the rapid mobilization of support shows how lawmakers from both parties are trying to come up with a compromise quickly after months of inaction.

Coronavirus cases are surging across the U.S. and concerns have intensified about the potential economic fall-out. Congress also faces a series of rapidly approaching economic deadlines, with aid programs for jobless Americans and renters set to expire before the end of the year.

With talks between congressional leaders stalled for months, a bipartisan group led by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., unveiled the compromise measure on Tuesday aimed to restart negotiations. The plan would devote close to $300 billion in another round of small business aid; $160 billion for state and local governments; fund federal unemployment benefits at $300 per week; and devote tens of billions of dollars to other priorities, such as childcare, hunger, and vaccine distribution.

It also includes a temporary liability shield to insulate firms and other entities from coronavirus-related lawsuits, a measure Democrats strongly oppose, although lawmakers were still hashing out details of that policy and others. The bipartisan proposal would not, however, include a new round of stimulus checks.

In a floor speech on Thursday morning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., did not reveal his position on the bipartisan framework, but called for lawmakers to swiftly approve additional economic aid. McConnell on Wednesday circulated a separate plan that broke sharply with key Democratic priorities and proposed no additional spending on supplemental federal unemployment benefits.

“Compromise is within reach. We know where we agree. We can do this,” McConnell said.

Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed approving the government spending package and a coronavirus stimulus bill “as soon as possible,” a Pelosi spokesman said on twitter.

Pelosi expressed optimism a spending deal could be reached by Dec. 11: “We’ll have an agreement. I don’t know when.”

McConnell has not said whether he would put the Manchin-led plan up for a vote, but faces pressure from conservatives in his rank to pull the legislation to the right. Conservative Senators have already objected to the plan’s proposal for state and local aid, although the framework calls for far less than Democrats have sought.

Sens. Mark Warner, D-Va.; Susan Collins, R-Maine; Mitt Romney, R-Utah; and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, are among the leaders behind the bipartisan effort. Not all lawmakers are moving in support of the measure, though.

“I’m very disappointed that a proposal from some of my colleagues today apparently includes provisions that spends hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money to bail out wasteful states,” Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., one of the conservatives, said in a statement about the bipartisan proposal.

Ernst told reporter she would be willing to accept some form of aid for state and local governments, albeit with guardrails to ensure funding is target for covid-related needs. She also expressed concern about language in the measure related to insulating firms and other entities from covid-related lawsuits.

“We’ve got a long ways to go, but I would like to see something by the end of the year,” Ernst said.

In a floor speech on Thursday, Schumer reiterated that he believes an agreement centered around it could be in reach.

“We are already much closer to an agreement because of the bipartisan talks these eight senators have done,” Schumer said. “And we can build off their momentum. What’s the alternative?”

More than 200,000 Americans tested positive for the coronavirus on Wednesday, the most of any day since the pandemic began. And close to 3,000 Americans died from the virus on Wednesday, a level that is not expected to abate in the coming weeks.

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Dollar bears vindicated by landmark week as spiral accelerates (nationthailand.com)

Dollar bears vindicated by landmark week as spiral accelerates

InternationalDec 04. 2020A collection of $1 bills are displayed in an arranged photograph on Aug. 5, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Chris Ratcliffe. 

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Susanne Barton, Ruth Carson, Hooyeon Kim

It’s turning into a week of vindication for proponents of a weaker dollar as the case they’ve been making for years may be gaining steam.

The greenback is spiraling lower, probing levels last seen in April 2018, judging by a Bloomberg index. The tumble is part of a broader move across financial markets to price in brighter growth prospects for 2021 and the potential for superior investment opportunities outside the U.S., in large part as hopes for a coronavirus vaccine build.

Dollar bears are feeling encouraged by the breadth of the currency’s declines this week: The euro, the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Korean won have all touched their highest levels in more than two years, while the Swiss franc is at its strongest since 2015. The pound is at the highest in roughly a year, even amid the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

“We are seeing money being put back to work after the defensive positions held in the dollar,” said Chris Turner, a currency strategist at ING Groep NV. “Vaccine news is adding weight to the view of a synchronized global upturn in 2021; the dollar can fall another 5-10% next year.”

More weakness in the greenback may come as asset managers build record short bets. The Congress’s renewed focus on fiscal stimulus in recent days delivered the latest blow to the dollar. In another sign of how investors are increasingly bullish on the outlook for economic growth and vaccine development, U.S. stocks are at record highs and commodities are rising.

It all adds credence to those on Wall Street who are warning that the greenback will undergo a bearish cycle with the Federal Reserve keeping rates low for years.

The dollar has dropped about 13% since peaking in March. It’s down 8% against the Swiss franc and roughly 4% versus the yen in 2020, two other traditional haven currencies, underlining the impact of the Fed’s unprecedented stimulus.

Here are key levels breached this week:

– Sterling touched $1.3489, pushing beyond a high touched in early September to reach the strongest since December 2019.

– The euro has broken through the psychological level of $1.20. It touched $1.2173 on Thursday, its strongest since April 2018

– The Canadian dollar strengthened to C$1.2885, the strongest since October 2018

– The Australian dollar rose to 74.47 U.S. cents, its highest level in more than two years

– The Swiss franc soared to its highest since January 2015

– The risk-sensitive Korean won strengthened to 1096.13 against the dollar, its strongest since June 2018, after breaking the key 1,100 level

Credit Suisse forecasts that the euro may rise to $1.25 by the end of 2021, while Goldman Sachs Asset Management favors shorting the dollar against the yuan and sees further gains in the euro and yen. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. have also forecast a weaker greenback.

“Risk-on sentiment seemed to catch another leg higher this week — we think this should accelerate the dollar’s tilt lower in the near term,” said Terence Wu, foreign-exchange strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “This round of dollar weakness is still more focused in the G-10 space,” although “we expect USD-Asia downside to open up in time.”