Rains ease across country as southwest monsoon weakens
Less rain is likely over Thailand except for isolated heavy showers in the lower South amid a weakening southwest monsoon across the country, the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, the Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.
It added that waves in the Andaman Sea and the upper Gulf are about 1 metre high and 1-2 metres during thundershowers.
Here’s the weather forecast for the next 24 hours:
North: Thundershowers in 40 per cent of the area; temperature lows of 23-24 degrees and highs of 33-36 degrees Celsius.
Northeast: Thundershowers in 30 per cent of the area; temperature lows of 23-26 degrees and highs of 33-37 degrees Celsius.
Central: Thundershowers in 20 per cent of the area; temperature lows of 23-26 degrees, highs of 35-37 degrees Celsius.
East: Thundershowers in 30 per cent of the area; temperature lows of 24-26 degrees, highs of 31-35 degrees Celsius; waves a metre high and 1-2 metres during thundershowers.
South (east coast): Thundershowers in 40 per cent of the area with isolated heavy rains; temperature lows of 23-24 degrees, highs of 31-34 degrees Celsius; waves a metre high and 1-2 metres during thundershowers.
South (west coast): Thundershowers in 40 per cent of the area with isolated heavy rains; temperature lows of 20-25 degrees, highs of 30-33 degrees Celsius; waves a metre high and 1-2 metres during thundershowers.
Bangkok and surrounding areas: Thundershowers in 10 per cent of the area; temperature lows of 24-27 degrees, highs of 33-36 degrees Celsius.
Banks in Bangkok malls can open till 8pm from Aug 18
Banks and financial institutions in Bangkok malls can open until 8pm from Wednesday (August 18), city governor Aswin Kwanmuang said today.
The lockdown closure restriction has been lifted for banks, credit card leasing businesses and other financial services located in the capital’s shopping malls, shopping centres, community malls and similar establishments. However, all operators will have to comply with disease controls or face up to one-year imprisonment and/or a fine of up to 100,000 baht.
Thammasat needs partners to help secure vaccines supplies: director
After Thammasat University councillors resolved on Monday to source Covid-19 vaccines, the university hospital’s director Dr Pharuhat Tor-Udom said this campaign will be much like the one run by Chulabhorn Royal Academy.
The vaccines imported by the academy are sourced by the Thai Red Cross Society, which has the authority to manage medicines, vaccines and medical supplies as well as contact manufacturers directly.
Other hospitals have also shown interest in importing alternative vaccines that do not duplicate the ones imported by other government agencies like the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation.
Dr Pharuhat said Thammasat plans to import generation-2 vaccines to boost immunity and is considering Novavax and Moderna.
However, he said, vaccines are changing almost daily, and some companies will only deal with governments.
Issues like these and limited funding may hamper the university’s efforts to procure vaccines, he said, adding that ideally, it needs a partner to help with the project.
Thammasat is in talks with the University Hospital Network (UHOSNET), royal institutions and associations, including private hospitals, and hopes to secure supplies by next year.
Cabinet approves purchase of 30m Pfizer doses for delivery in Q4
The Cabinet on Tuesday approved a budget of 9.3 billion baht to purchase 20 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine due to arrive in late September or early October.
The budget comprises 8.4 billion baht to pay for the doses and 933 million baht for management fees, according to government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri.
The Cabinet also ordered the Department of Disease Control to secure another 10 million vaccine doses from Pfizer, to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,544.22 on Tuesday, up 12.98 points or 0.85 per cent. Transactions totalled THB83.14 billion with an index high of 1,545.95 and a low of 1,533.32.
In the morning session, Krungsri Securities forecast the index on Tuesday would fluctuate between 1,520 and 1,540 points amid signs of a technical rebound and mass buy-ups of shares that gained positive sentiment.
However, it said the index would be under pressure from the rise in Covid-19 cases both here and abroad and ongoing anti-government protests in Thailand.
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The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were PTT, KCE, KBANK, BCH, INTUCH, MEGA, IVL, BANPU, CPALL and PTTGC.
Other Asian indices were on the fall:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 27,424.47, down 98.72 points or 0.36 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,446.98, down 70.37 points or 2.00 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,350.65, down 343.09 points or 2.33 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,745.87, down 435.59 points or 1.66 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3,143.09, down 28.20 points or 0.89 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX closed at 16,661.36, down 197.41 points or 1.17 per cent.
Apec report forecasts 6.4% growth in 2021 after strong Q1
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) region posted a 6.1 per cent increase in economic growth in the first quarter of 2021, bouncing back strongly from a 2 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2020, according to an updated report by the Apec Policy Support Unit.
This number comfortably puts the region on track to achieve growth expectations for the year, which is now estimated at 6.4 per cent, slightly higher than the earlier prediction.
High growth in the first quarter of 2021 is due to a combination of factors, including the low comparison point following substantial economic contraction a year ago as well as higher government spending given the sustained impact of the pandemic on economic activities, while domestic consumption grew considerably during this period.
In the near term, the Apec Policy Support Unit still sees sustained stimulus measures from governments driving the region’s economic growth.
Private consumption will also get a boost of confidence as consumers are expected to draw on their accumulated savings, bolstered in part due to cash transfers and wide-ranging subsidies to households.
“Vaccination programmes and rollout still drive economic growth and the recovery progress in the region,” said Denis Hew, director of the Apec Policy Support Unit.
“We are still seeing a disparity in access to vaccination coverage across Apec; economies with faster rollouts and sustained fiscal support will recover faster and stronger, while economies that struggle with vaccine access and have limited fiscal space will take more time to recover due to these uncertainties,” explained Hew.
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Vaccination coverage across Apec is noticeably diverse, ranging from 148 doses per 100 residents to a low of only one dose per 100 residents. As a result, the rate of fully vaccinated people across economies varies greatly, from as low as 0.2 per cent to as high as 72 per cent of the population as of mid-August.
“The race to vaccinate as many people as possible in the shortest amount of time is extremely crucial,” said Rhea C Hernando, an Apec Policy Support Unit researcher who updated the report. “Economies cannot afford to keep imposing restrictions, close borders and indefinitely provide wide-ranging fiscal and monetary support.”
Hernando explained that multilateral cooperation is key in facilitating the free flow of vaccine components and related supplies, as this will significantly contribute to the accessibility and affordability of vaccines, especially for low- and middle-income economies.
“It is now clear that for economic recovery to be on firmer footing, health must be safeguarded, which in turn necessitates access to vaccines to protect as many people as possible, as soon as possible,” she added.
In terms of trade, the region performed positively in the first quarter of 2021, with the value of merchandise exports and imports growing at a higher rate of 16.8 per cent and 16.2 per cent, respectively, from a contraction of 6.1 for exports and 4.1 per cent for imports during the same period last year. This improved performance is brought mainly by pharmaceuticals and office and communications equipment, while the agrifood, apparel, metals and minerals sectors also added to the trade boost.
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The impact of Covid-19 on the transport and travel sectors continues to drag Apec’s commercial services performance.
For the period January to March 2021, commercial services declined further to 12 per cent for exports and 15.2 per cent for imports, compared to a decline of 9.5 per cent for exports and 9.2 per cent for imports for the same period in 2020.
The updated report also notes an increase in inflation during the first half of 2021 to 2.3 per cent, compared to 1.6 per cent in the first half of 2020, due to the gradual normalisation of prices. Inflation is expected to revert to its pre-pandemic levels globally once prices factor in pandemic-related supply-side disruptions.
The whole-year forecast of inflation for the Apec region is 2 per cent while it could increase to 2.2 per cent in 2022. There is a risk that the upward trend in inflation could persist as consumption activity strengthens following successive quarters of pent-up demand. The report notes that price pressures require continued monitoring and clear communication from monetary policy authorities to guide inflation expectations.
“Addressing the ongoing health crisis, primarily through rapid vaccination rollouts even as appropriate health measures continue to be observed, remains paramount to strengthen economic recovery,” Hernando said.
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“When people feel safe, they are more confident to go out, work and spend accumulated savings, while business could resume investment activity, supporting a gradual but uninterrupted economic reopening towards a stronger recovery.”
Gold price surges amid rise in demand as safe-haven asset
The price of gold in Thailand rose by THB150 on Tuesday morning.
The Gold Traders Association report at 9.30am showed buying price of a gold bar at THB28,150 per baht weight and selling price at THB28,250, while gold ornaments were priced at THB27,636.68 and THB28,750, respectively.
At close on Monday, buying price of a gold bar was THB28,000 per baht weight and selling price THB28,100, while gold ornaments were priced at THB27,500.24 and THB28,600, respectively.
Spot gold on Tuesday morning rose to US$1,786 (THB59,743) per ounce after Comex gold price at close on Monday continuously rose by $11.60 to $1,789.8 per ounce, due to support for buying gold as a safe-haven asset after the US manufacturing index slowed to lower than expectation. In addition, the gold price was supported by the positive factor of a drop in the US government bond yield.
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Hong Kong gold price, meanwhile, again rose sharply by HK$120 to $16,590 (THB71,280) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 4.67 points, or 0.30 per cent, to 1,535.91 on Tuesday morning.
The SET Index closed at 1,531.24 on Monday, up 2.92 points or 0.19 per cent. Transactions totalled THB77.16 billion with an index high of 1,532.94 and a low of 1,512.28.
Krungsri Securities forecast the index on Tuesday would fluctuate between 1,520 and 1,540 points amid signs of a technical rebound and mass buy-ups of shares that gained positive sentiment.
It predicted the index, however, would be under pressure due to rising domestic and overseas Covid-19 cases and ongoing anti-government protests.
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It recommended selective buying as an investment strategy:
▪︎ HANA, KCE, TU, CPF, GFPT, ASIAN, EPG and NER, which benefit from the weakening baht.
▪︎ PSL and TTA, which would benefit from a rise in the freight rate.
▪︎ ADVANC, BGRIM, GPSC and CKP, which are able to escape the impact from market volatility.
Baht stable but seen weakening, as markets await US Fed move on QE
The baht opened at 33.43 to the US dollar on Tuesday, unchanged from Monday’s closing rate.
The Thai currency was likely to move between 33.40 and 33.55 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.
He said the baht was likely to fluctuate and weaken due to the Covid-19 situation and the rising momentum of the US dollar.
He expected the dollar to receive support from the US Federal Reserve move to reduce quantitative easing (QE) this year and the demand for safe-haven assets due to the Covid-19 situation worldwide.
However, the statement from the Fed’s chair this week might cause the dollar to fluctuate and weaken if the Fed chair does not announce a reduction in quantitive easing this year, and the US economy recovers strongly as Fed officials revealed earlier.
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Poon said the resistance of the baht would be at 33.50 to the dollar, as exporters continued to sell the dollar. The baht could weaken past the resistance level if the pandemic situation in the country worsened, along with the strengthening of the dollar.
S&P 500 extends gain, doubles from pandemic bottom
The stock market wiped out earlier losses, with the S&P 500 extending its surge from a March 2020 low to 100%. Bonds climbed.
The benchmark gauge of American shares closed at another record — its 49th since the end of last year — led by health-care and utility companies. Apple Inc. also climbed to an all-time high. Equities fell in the first few hours of trading on Monday after softer economic data from the world’s two biggest economies. Tesla Inc. sank as the U.S. opened an investigation on the electric-vehicle firm’s Autopilot system.
Traders awaited signals from the Federal Reserve, with a town hall by Chair Jerome Powell Tuesday potentially acting as a precursor to the Jackson Hole symposium in late August. The market has viewed the event as a venue for the Fed to lay out the timing and contours of its expected move to taper the bond-buying program.
“The big question that’s hovering over the market is about the Fed — when the Fed is going to move, when the Fed is going to taper,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “What we do know is that the recovery is going to be bumpy — it’s not going to be in a straight line.”
Halfway through August, the S&P 500 is on track for one of the calmest months ever. Under the surface, however, there’s still a degree of anxiety about what’s coming. A measure of implied volatility in VIX options has advanced for five out of seven weeks — even as the Cboe Volatility Index kept falling.
Citigroup Inc.’s Tobias Levkovich warned that investors should be bracing for more volatility as Fed tapering, the possibility of higher taxes, margin pressures and persistent inflation become forces “that the bond market has to respond to.”
“We’re a bit more cautious,” Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity strategist said in an interview on Bloomberg TV, adding that these four potential issues “could cascade onto each other around September” as valuation is extended.
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Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
– The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. EDT
– The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
– The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.3%
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– The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
– The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1778
– The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3839
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– The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 109.24 per dollar
Bonds
– The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 1.26%
– Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.47%
– Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.57%
Commodities
– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $67.44 a barrel
– Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,789.20 an ounce
Published : August 17, 2021
By : Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric
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