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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005324

Three Fed policy hawks push early taper despite risk from delta

Three of the Federal Reserves leading hawks, on the eve of the central banks annual Jackson Hole symposium, urged that policymakers move quickly to slow asset purchases despite the risk from the spreading delta variant.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he favors an announcement at the central bank’s September meeting to begin tapering bond buying and implementing it in October or shortly after. St. Louis’s James Bullard called for a start in the fall — finishing by the end of the first quarter in 2022, while Kansas City Fed’s Esther George urged an early move begin this year.

The three, speaking in television interviews, highlighted one side of the debate among U.S. central bankers. None of them vote on policy in 2021. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has struck a more patient tone and will give his take on the outlook Friday in a virtual speech to get the day-long forum under way.

“I think it’s important to get started and the conditions of pace, timing of when we end, I’m open minded to listening to the debates around that,” George said in a Bloomberg TV interview with Michael McKee conducted Wednesday evening. “But I am less interested in deferring that decision.”

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Bullard echoed that view in a CNBC interview Thursday, adding that the delta variant’s impact could be reaching a peak.

“Some on Wall Street seem to think that the numbers are rolling over on delta,” Bullard said. “I don’t really know if we can say that yet but it will peak at some point. The main message here is the economy has learned to adapt to the pandemic.”

U.S. stocks declined as investors absorbed their comments. Treasury yields rose along with the dollar.

While George has been a longtime policy hawk and Bullard has changed his views to more hawkish this year in light of a stronger job market, both will gain votes in 2022 on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Kaplan, also a hawk, will vote next in 2023.

“It would continue to be my view that when we get to the September meeting, we’d be well served to announce a plan for adjusting purchases and begin to execute that plan in October or shortly thereafter,” Kaplan told CNBC.

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That seemed to be a small shift in tone from his most recent comments, when he said he would be open to adjusting calls for a quick tapering of bond buying if delta hurts the economy’s progress.

George suggested she might have more flexibility on when the taper should actually be implemented, saying “I think we should get started this year so that we can begin to pare the amount of accommodation.”

“The economy continues to grow at a strong rate,” George said, adding that in terms of the potential risk of the delta variant, “you can imagine that it might slow down some of the returns to the labor market. But I don’t expect at this point that it will derail the economy.”

Most Federal Reserve officials agreed last month they could start slowing the pace of bond purchases later this year, judging that enough progress had been made toward their inflation goal, while gains had been made toward their employment objective, according to the minutes of the FOMC’s July 27-28 meeting.

Bullard said he favored getting started with tapering in the fall and wrapping up the process by the end of the first quarter, which would give the FOMC the option of raising rates earlier in 2022 if needed.

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“There is some worry that we are doing more damage than helping with the asset purchases because there is an incipient housing bubble in the U.S.,” Bullard said.

With the median house price approaching $400,000, Bullard added, “You are pricing low-income people out of this market. I’m not sure that is what we want to do. We got into a lot of trouble in the mid-2000s by being too complacent about housing prices.”

The Fed has pledged to buy $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage securities a month until the economy shows “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment as it recovers from Covid-19.

The Kansas City Fed shifted its annual gathering last Friday in light of elevated health risks outside Jackson, Wyoming. Covid-19 cases have spiked across the country as the delta variant spreads, spurring companies to re-evaluate return-to-work plans and schools to return to virtual education, quarantines and mask requirements.

Published : August 27, 2021

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005321

U.S. stocks fall on Kabul blasts, hawkish Fed view

U.S. equities fell Thursday as markets turned cautious after explosions in Afghanistan and ahead of a Federal Reserve gathering that may provide more clues about its approach to paring stimulus.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid as U.S. and civilian casualties were reported from blasts outside the Kabul airport, escalating tensions as the U.S. evacuates the area. The decline came after nonvoting members of the Federal Open Market Committee also made hawkish monetary comments, urging the Fed to start tapering its asset purchase program. Energy shares led the decline as crude oil fell. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar rose.

Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said the quick drop in shares was likely a culmination of the morning news, including the uncertainty created by the explosions and the Fed commentary ahead of Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Views are split on whether the address Friday will provide a clearer guide on tapering emergency Fed support. While the ongoing economic rebound and elevated inflation add to the case for starting policy normalization, the fast-spreading delta virus strain threatens a slower pace of recovery than some had expected.

“While news of bombings at the Kabul airport has resulted in some volatility this morning, it has become consensus that Jackson Hole will be more or less a nonevent as investors are moving expectations for any major Fed taper announcement to later this year,” said Christopher Murphy, Susquehanna International Group co-head of derivatives strategy.

If Powell fails to hint at when a taper announcement will happen, all eyes will next be on the August jobs report, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. The latest jobless claims and annualized gross domestic product data Thursday slightly missed estimates.

“A strong jobs report on Sept. 3 will lead to increased speculation that the Fed will announce their taper plans at the September FOMC meeting,” he said. “However, any weakness or disappointment in that report will push consensus back to the next Fed meeting.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell, dragged lower by basic resources and travel, while MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific gauge snapped a three-day rally. WTI crude oil fell, paring back its weekly gain to about 9%. Bitcoin slid to about $47,000. Gold was slightly higher.

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Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. EDT

– The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%

– The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.5%

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– The MSCI World index fell 0.5%

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%

– The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1754

– The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3698

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– The Japanese yen was little changed at 110.03 per dollar

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys was little changed at 1.34%

– Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to -0.41%

– Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.60%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $67.84 a barrel

– Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,794.70 an ounce

Published : August 27, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005312

SET settles above 1,600 points after surge

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,601.91 on Thursday, up 1.42 points or 0.09 per cent. Transactions totalled THB81.23 billion with an index high of 1,603.99 and a low of 1,595.69. The SET rose for a fifth straight day after surging past the 1,600 mark on Wednesday.

In Thursday’s morning session, Krungsri Securities expected the index to rise to between 1,608 and 1,615 points, buoyed by recently announced plans to ease lockdown measures and administer 100 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine.

It added that the index also gained positive sentiment from foreign inflows for the third straight day in response to the SET’s “Thailand Focus 2021” virtual conference, which is being held until Friday.

“However, sell-offs of stocks to prevent risk before the US Federal Reserve’s annual meeting will pressure the index,” Krungsri Securities said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were 7UP, KBANK, GUNKUL, PTTGC, GPSC, ADVANC, INTUCH, PTT, KCE and JMART.

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Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 27,742.29, up 17.49 points or 0.063 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,501.66, down 38.72 points or 1.09 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,415.46, down 282.04 points or 1.92 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,415.69, down 278.26 points or 1.08 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,128.53, down 18.28 points or 0.58 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX closed at 17,066.96, up 21.10 points or 0.12 per cent.

Published : August 26, 2021

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005304

Fruit exports up almost 50% in first 7 months

Exports of fresh and processed fruits in the first seven months (January to July) generated 131.16 billion baht, up 48.31 per cent year on year, the Commerce Ministry said on Thursday.

The ministry is targeting at least 180 billion baht in revenue from fresh and processed fruit exports this year, up 30 per cent year on year, said Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit.

The minister credited the rise in fruit exports to four promotional activities – online business matching, a department store promotion campaign, Thai Fruit Golden Month, and sales via foreign platforms such as India’s BigBasket and China’s Tmall.

“In China alone, Thai Fruit Golden Month in eight cities generated up to 15 billion baht,” said Jurin, who expects the same promotion in five more cities to yield another 5 billion baht.

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Fruit exports up almost 50% in first 7 months

He added that provincial commerce offices have been instructed to oversee negotiations between buyers and sellers in each province to clear remaining fruit in stock, especially longan and langsat.

“Meanwhile, we have asked commerce ambassadors to seek fruit markets overseas and prepare export plans for next year,” he added.

Published : August 26, 2021