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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006192

EIC revises down Thailand’s economic forecast due to prolonged third wave, weak stimulus measures

The Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has revised downward Thailand’s economic forecast for this year to 0.7 per cent from 0.9 per cent after the prolonged third-wave of Covid-19 infections hit private consumption badly.

The number of foreign arrivals has also been lower than expected due to concerns about the outbreak.

EIC expects the situation to improve in the fourth quarter, by which time more people will have been vaccinated.

Separately, exports have been expanding though they may slow down slightly after the spread of the Delta variant has decelerated the global economy and resulted in supply disruptions in Thailand and Asean.

On the fiscal front, stimulus spending has continued through public consumption and investment, alongside several relief measures. Nonetheless, the measures are still inadequate in terms of areas covered, duration and amount allocated.

EIC expects the government to implement additional relief measures this year using the remainder of the 1-trillion-baht budget and an additional 200 billion baht from another 500-billion-baht loan.

For 2022, EIC believes the Thai economy will grow 3.4 per cent with recovery in both domestic and external demand. Exports should expand, though at a slower pace in line with the global economy.

Higher vaccination rates in Thailand and neighbouring countries to a level that would allow the resumption of travel would benefit the tourism sector. Should this happen, EIC forecasts about 6.3 million tourists next year. It also expects domestic spending to recover from a resumption of economic activities.

However, recovery will be gradual due to a significantly lower number of tourists as well as headwinds from deep economic scars like worsening business dynamism, fragile labour market and high debt levels.

On the fiscal front, though public investment projects will continue expanding, support from the fiscal policy will decline from the previous year as public consumption drops.

Also, the 300 billion baht earmarked is less than the amount spent in 2021.

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Though the economy will recover next year, it will still be substantially below its potential resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future.

Hence, the government should consider additional borrowings to support recovery. While the public debt level will rise above the ceiling of 60 per cent of the GDP, it remains manageable under a low-interest rate environment and high domestic liquidity.

The government must also come up with a convincing medium-term fiscal consolidation plan to boost confidence.

EIC expects the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the policy rate at 0.5 per cent through 2021 and 2022 to support economic recovery.

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The Bank of Thailand will focus on boosting the efficiency of monetary policy transmission through various policies to boost liquidity of households and SMEs.

At the same time, the central bank will encourage financial institutions to restructure loans according to problems faced by each group of borrowers in addition to considering intervention in financial markets to stabilize interest rates.

However, the Thai economy still faces significant downside risks from:

• A potential resurgence in Covid-19 cases both domestically and overseas if virus mutations cause vaccine efficacy to fall.

• Supply chain disruptions which could occur due to the closure of local factories and production stoppages

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• A more severe impact from scarring effects than expected leading to widespread consequences on households and businesses debt servicing.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006171

SET rises a tad in opening trade

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 3.00 points or 0.18 per cent to 1,626.84 on Wednesday morning, witnessing a high of 1,628.72 and a low of 1,623.84 in opening trade.

Krungsri Securities predicted the day’s index would move between 1,615 and 1,620 points in line with the fall in neighbouring stock markets.

It said the index gained positive sentiment from a slight rise in the US Consumer Price Index, which helped allay investor concern over the Federal Reserve’s move to taper its quantitative easing programme.

“However, uncertainty over the US corporate income tax hike from 21 per cent to 26.5 per cent would affect investment,” Krungsri Securities pointed out.

“Hence, we advise investors to buy shares when prices are cheap, focusing on stocks that have gained positive sentiment.”

It recommended purchasing of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:

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▪︎ PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC and SPRC, which benefit from the rising oil price.

▪︎ Hana, KCE, TU, CPF, GFPT, Asian, EPG, NER, Sun and APure, which benefit from a weakening baht.

▪︎ PSL, TTA and RCL, which would benefit from a rise in the freight rate.

The SET Index closed at 1,623.84 on Tuesday, down 9.92 points or 0.61 per cent. Transactions totalled THB84.17 billion with an index high of 1,640.40 and a low of 1,621.96.

Related stories:

• Baht performance hinges on Covid situation: market strategist
• U.S. consumer price growth cools, smallest gain in seven months
• SET Index falls 0.61% as foreign inflows waver

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006174

Gold dazzles in opening trade

The price of gold peaked by THB250 in morning trade on Wednesday.

AGold Traders Association report at 9.25am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,050 per baht weight and selling price THB28,150, while gold ornaments cost THB27,545.72 and THB28,650, respectively.

At close on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,800 per baht weight and selling price THB27,900, while gold ornaments cost THB27,303.16 and THB28,400, respectively.

The spot gold price on Wednesday morning was moving around US$1,804 (THB59,442) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Tuesday rose by $12.70 to $1,807.10 per ounce due to expectation that the US Federal Reserve would go slow on any increase in the interest rate and relax its bond purchasing programme under quantitative easing measures after the country revealed lower-than-expected inflation numbers.

Related news:

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• Baht performance hinges on Covid situation: market strategist
• SET rises a tad in opening trade
• Asean ministers to start talks on regional digital economy agreement by 2025

The Hong Kong gold price meanwhile rose by HK$120 to $16,730 (THB70,835) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006170

Baht performance hinges on Covid situation: market strategist

The baht opened at 32.95 to the US dollar on Wednesday, weakening from Tuesday’s closing rate of 32.93.

The Thai currency is likely to move between 32.90 and 33.05 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.

Poon said the baht might test the key resistance level of 33.00 to the dollar due to risk factors faced by the country.

The Covid-19 situation might take a turn for the worse and usher in a new dreaded wave, causing investors to offload Thai assets, he pointed out, adding that investors who have purchased short duration bonds might close their risks.

Meanwhile, the market is still in a risk-on state and supported by the dollar’s momentum, Poon said.

Related News

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Short-term weakening of baht possible amid new Covid wave worries

Baht expected to move sideways as market awaits key US data

Baht stable but sales by foreign investors could trigger volatility

The baht will not strengthen in the short term until the market sees worries ease and is ready to take risks, during which the dollar may weaken, he added.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006152

World must wait for extra oil as Ida wipes out OPEC+ hike

The world will have to wait until October for additional oil supplies as output losses from Hurricane Ida wipe out increases from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency said.

Consumers should have been enjoying “solid gains” in production as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies continued their revival of idle capacity, the agency said in its monthly report. Instead, global supply fell by 540,000 barrels a day in August due to unexpected disruptions and will be flat this month.

“Unplanned production outages have temporarily halted an uptrend in world oil supply that began in March, but growth is set to resume in October,” said the Paris-based IEA, which advises developed economies on energy policy.

The supply disappointment hasn’t had a big impact on prices because of bearish trends in fuel consumption. Global oil demand has been falling since July as rising Covid-19 cases prompt mobility restrictions in Asia, the IEA said. Crude has traded near $70 a barrel in New York for most of this month.

World fuel consumption will contract by 310,000 barrels a day on average each month from July to September, the IEA said. Yet there are signs that the coronavirus resurgence is abating and the agency expects a sharp rebound in demand of 1.6 million barrels a day next month, with continued growth to the end of the year.

The matching shifts in supply and demand meant this year’s prevailing oil-market trend — shrinking inventories — continued unabated. Fuel stockpiles in developed economies fell by 30 million barrels last month, putting them 186 million barrels below the five-year average, according to preliminary IEA estimates. There should be “hefty draws” again this month, the agency said.

“It is only by early 2022 that supply will be high enough to allow oil stocks to be replenished,” according to the report. “In the meantime, strategic oil stocks from the U.S. and China may go some way to help plug the gap.”

Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 storm that hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, initially shut down 1.7 million barrels a day of oil production. Weeks later, the industry is still struggling to restart many of the affected fields and the region’s crude output is expected to be down as much as 650,000 barrels a day on average this month, the IEA said.

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The total crude supply loss could amount to 30 million barrels, making Ida the most damaging hurricane to hit the Gulf oil industry since Katrina and Rita in 2005. Another storm, named Nicholas, made landfall in Texas on Tuesday and threatened to unleash flooding in Houston and parts of Louisiana.

While most of OPEC boosted output in August, a handful of members plus several allied producers saw production drop. Overall OPEC+ crude supply fell by 150,000 barrels a day to 41.58 million barrels a day in August as increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia failed to offset losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Mexico.

The group is scheduled to revive another 400,000 barrels a day of idle capacity this month, but members including Nigeria, Angola and Malaysia continue to struggle to boost output, the IEA said.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006151

U.S. consumer price growth cools, smallest gain in seven months

Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in August by less than forecast, snapping a string of hefty gains and suggesting that some of the upward pressure on inflation is beginning to wane.

The consumer price index increased 0.3% from July, the smallest advance in seven months, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.3%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation climbed 0.1% from the prior month, the smallest gain since February and a reflection of declines in the prices of used cars, airfares and auto insurance.

Economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.4% increase in the overall CPI from the prior month and a 5.3% gain from a year earlier, based on the median estimates. Ten-year yields were down to 1.28% and the dollar fell, while U.S. stocks were mostly lower.

Faced with mounting cost pressures as a result of materials shortages, transportation bottlenecks and hiring difficulties, businesses have been boosting prices for consumer goods and services.

While price spikes associated with the economy’s reopening are beginning to abate, tenuous supply chains could linger well into 2022 and keep inflation elevated. Economists at Citigroup Inc. said after the report that they “continue to see signals both in the details of the inflation report and in other data that broader inflationary pressure will prove more persistent than expected.”

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey showed Monday that consumers expect inflation at 4% over the next three years, the highest in data back to mid-2013. The CPI report also showed the hot housing market is starting to filter through to rent prices, which rose by the most since March 2020.

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The price data precede next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where Fed officials will debate how and when to begin tapering asset purchases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that the central bank could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases this year, but didn’t give a specific time line.

“The ‘is it transitory debate’ is far from over but at least, this more moderate gain in consumer prices will give the Fed some breathing room next week,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “But not for long.”

The figures offer some validation of views among Fed officials and the Biden administration that high inflation will prove temporary. The report could also help blunt criticism from Republicans that President Joe Biden’s economic stimulus is spurring damaging inflation as he seeks to sell a $3.5 trillion long-term tax-and-spending package that’s also running into opposition from moderate Democrats.

Parts shortages that have driven up input costs are restraining production. In the last week, Toyota and 3M both downgraded their outlooks for car output due to semiconductor shortages, while Nestle said it is introducing even bigger price hikes as commodity and transportation costs surge.

Meantime, Hurricane Ida halted operations at refineries and petrochemical plants in the south, adding to pandemic-related supply chain bottlenecks and likely price pressures as well.

The CPI report showed prices for airfares dropped 9.1% in August, used cars were down 1.5% and vehicle insurance costs decreased 2.8%.

The costs of hotel stays and car rentals also fell, a sign that softening demand as a result of the more contagious delta variant is leading to a deceleration in prices in high-contact sectors most impacted by the pandemic.

“We expect modest core CPI prints over the next few months, as used car prices — the single biggest driver of the spring surge — continue to fall but airline fares and hotel room rates eventually will rebound as the delta wave fades,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.

Rents and owners’ equivalent rent both climbed 0.3%. Among other notable increases, prices of household furnishings jumped by a record 1.2% from July. Costs of motor vehicle parts and equipment, as well as men’s suits, posted unprecedented advances.

While firms have been increasing wages in recent months, rising consumer prices are eroding Americans’ buying power. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.9% year-over-year in August after a 1.2% drop a month earlier, separate data showed Tuesday.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

U.S. poverty rate rose from 60-year low, incomes fell amid virus

U.S. household income fell in 2020 while the national poverty rate rose from a 60-year low as the Covid-19 pandemic upended the U.S. economy and threw millions out of work.

Median, inflation-adjusted household income decreased 2.9% last year to $67,521 according to annual data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The poverty rate rose one percentage point to 11.4% after having dropped for five straight years and reaching the lowest since 1959 in 2019.

The data help flesh out the picture of American families’ economic health in 2020 amid a pandemic that caused the first annual economic contraction since 2009, put tens of millions out of work and exacerbated existing inequalities.

Lower-wage service-industry workers and people of color bore the brunt of job losses. The government’s stimulus checks and extra $600 a week in jobless benefits helped soften the blow, supporting incomes and spending amid widespread unemployment.

The Supplemental Poverty Measure, which includes many government-assistance programs, declined 2.6 percentage points to 9.1% in 2020, the lowest since the gauge started in 2009. This rate is lower than the official poverty rate because of economic-relief payments related to the pandemic, which moved 11.7 million people out of poverty in the first two rounds of disbursements. Five million people were added to poverty due to medical expenses.

There were 37.2 million people living in poverty in 2020, 3.3 million more than a year earlier, the Census Bureau said. It considers a two-parent, two-child household with less than $26,246 in income to be living in poverty; the measure differs by size of household.

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The data show that the official poverty measure is outdated and “can’t be used to examine public policy,” said David Johnson, a research professor at the Institute for Social Research and Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan.

Digging deeper:

– Poverty rates rose among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. While the poverty rate among Black people was the highest at 19.5% and the Asian rate also increased, both weren’t statistically significant changes from 2019.

– Close to one in four people without a high-school diploma were in poverty compared with less than 4% of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

– Women are still more likely to live in poverty at rates of 12.6% compared with 10.2% for men. The female-to-male earnings ratio was 0.83, not statistically different from the 2019 ratio.

– For families with single female heads of household, 23.4% were in poverty compared to 11.4% for families led by single males. Married couples saw the lowest poverty rates at 4.7%, up slightly from a year ago.

– Median incomes for non-Hispanic White, Asian, and Hispanic households all decreased in 2020, while changes for Black households were not statistically different. Real median incomes fell in every region of the country other than the Northeast. Every household income group saw income fall in 2020 except for the top 5% of households.

– Tuesday’s report also shows the share of Americans without health insurance at 8.6% last year, amounting to 28 million people. For people with health insurance coverage, 66.5% are on private insurance and 34.8% are on public plans.

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006147

Treasurys rally after CPI seen pushing off taper

Treasurys rallied and U.S. stocks declined after a less-than-forecast increase in inflation was seen as giving Federal Reserve officials more flexibility when it comes to pulling back on stimulus. The dollar fluctuated.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell 5 basis points to 1.26%, narrowing the yield gap between short- and longer-maturity U.S. debt. The financial, industrial and energy sectors led the S&P 500 lower even after the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index increased 0.3% from July. Economists called for a 0.4% gain. The Dow Jones industrial average was weighed down by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Caterpillar Inc.

“It appears that the continued rally in Treasuries is due to speculation that some people have that the CPI data pushes off the Fed” tapering, said Blake Gwinn, strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Gwinn said he doesn’t agree with that view, and continues to see the Fed’s announced the start of its reduction in asset purchases in November or December.

The CPI figures offer some validation of views among Fed officials and the Biden administration that high inflation will prove temporary. The report could also help blunt criticism from Republicans that President Joe Biden’s economic stimulus is spurring damaging inflation as he seeks to sell a $3.5 trillion long-term tax-and-spending package that’s also running into opposition from moderate Democrats.

The focus was firmly on price pressures, with a gauge of commodities around a decade-high. The global stock-market rally is facing head winds amid concerns about the delta virus strain and risks from elevated inflation, which is being stoked by covid-19 related supply disruptions.

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“Today’s sell-off in equities is simply a continuation of the weakness we saw last week,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. “Although the August CPI report all but guarantees no taper announcement at next week’s FOMC meeting, the clear and present danger is around a slowing economy.”

Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed at the highest level since 1990. Hong Kong and China wavered as traders evaluated the troubles of indebted developer China Evergrande Group, Beijing’s regulatory curbs and a virus flare-up.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4:02 p.m. EDT

– The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%

– The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.8%

– The MSCI World index fell 0.4%

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

– The euro was little changed at $1.1804

– The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3806

– The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 109.67 per dollar

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys declined five basis points to 1.27%

– Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.34%

– Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.74%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed

– Gold futures rose 0.7% to $1,807.20 an ounce

Published : September 15, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006130

SET Index falls 0.61% as foreign inflows waver

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,623.84 on Tuesday, down 9.92 points or 0.61 per cent. Transactions totalled THB84.17 billion with an index high of 1,640.40 and a low of 1,621.96.

In the morning session, Krungsri Securities forecast the index on Tuesday would fluctuate between 1,625 and 1,645 points amid positive sentiment from neighbouring stock markets and the oil price, plus a decline in domestic Covid-19 infections.

However, it predicted the index would face downward pressure from volatile foreign fund flows amid hints the US Federal Reserve will taper quantitative easing sooner than expected.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were DELTA, PTT, INTUCH, KBANK, AOT, PTTEP, ADVANC, CPALL, EE and PTTGC.

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Related stories:

• Limited upside for SET despite positive sentiment
• Short-term weakening of baht possible amid new Covid wave worries
• Gold rises in opening trade

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 30,670.10, up 222.73 points or 0.73 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,662.60, down 52.77 points or 1.42 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,626.08, down 79.74 points or 0.54 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,502.23, down 311.58 points or 1.21 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,148.83, up 20.97 points or 0.67 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX closed at 17,434.90, down 11.41 points or 0.065 per cent.

Published : September 14, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40006112

Gold rises in opening trade

The price of gold rose by THB50 in morning trade on Tuesday.

AGold Traders Association report at 9.28am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,000 per baht weight and selling price THB27,900, while gold ornaments cost THB27,303.16 and THB28,400, respectively.

At close on Monday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,750 per baht weight and selling price THB27,850, while gold ornaments cost THB27,257.68 and THB28,350, respectively.

Related news:

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• Short-term weakening of baht possible amid new Covid wave worries
• Limited upside for SET despite positive sentiment
• Army of state welfare cardholders set to swell amid Covid misery

Published : September 14, 2021