The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,260.08 on Friday, down 4.24 points or 0.34 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt73.52 billion with an index high of 1,270.22 and a low of 1,251.08.
In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,255 and 1,270 despite the strong prospect of former vice president Joe Biden being elected president.
“Uncertainty over [Thai] protesters’ plans for anti-government rallies this weekend, along with rising US Covid-19 cases, would cause volatility in the index,” he said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, GPSC, GULF, BBL, CPALL, PTT, SCB, TASCO, AOT and BGRIM.
As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.58 or 1.50 per cent to $38.21 per barrel, while gold rose by $1.50 or 0.08 per cent, to $1,948.30 per ounce.
Other Asian indices were on the rise, except in mainland China:
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 24,325.23, up 219.95 points or 0.91 per cent.
China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,312.16, down 7.97 points or 0.24 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,838.42, down 55.83 points or 0.40 per cent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,712.97, up 17.05 points or 0.066 per cent.
South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,416.50, up 2.71 points or 0.11 per cent.
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,973.53, up 54.73 points or 0.42 per cent.
‘Global markets expected to be propped up by government intervention’
EconNov 06. 2020Joseph Caceres, the new head of investment advisory and solutions, SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co Ltd
By The Nation
Markets will continue to be supported by global policy intervention, according to SCB Julius Baer, which recommends staying invested but highly selective in the fourth quarter of 2020.
The strategic wealth management joint venture between Siam Commercial Bank and Julius Baer, the leading Swiss wealth management group, expects markets to be supported by government and central bank intervention as well as the development of a Covid-19 vaccine.
“We believe that global economic recovery is on track, led by strong monetary and fiscal stimulus and later by a cyclical recovery on the back of a vaccine. We continue to be constructive on equities but highly selective, particularly as we enter the more volatile weeks ahead of and during the US presidential elections,” said Joseph Caceres, the new head of investment advisory and solutions, SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co Ltd.
“We believe longer term structural shifts in the way we live and work will continue to drive the technology sector including across digital infrastructure, fintech and healthcare. We advise clients to stay invested but remain well-diversified and have a preference geographically towards the US and China,” Caceres suggested.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped by 1.33 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 1,262.99 in the morning session on Friday.
An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,255 and 1,270 despite strong prospects of former vice president Joe Biden being elected president.
“Uncertainty over pro-democracy protesters’ move to hold anti-government rallies this weekend and rising US Covid-19 cases would cause volatility in the index,” he said.
He recommended that investors buy STGT, STA, CBG, IVL, EPG, AP, COM7, SYNEX, ASIAN, HANA, SVI and TVO, whose third-quarter performances are expected to improve.
The SET Index closed at 1,264 on Thursday, up 41.88 points or 3.43 per cent with total transactions amounting to Bt81 billion amid hopes of Biden winning the US presidential election, as it will be a positive sentiment for trade relations and the rollout of economic stimulus measures.
The price of gold rose by Bt150 per baht weight in morning trade on Friday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.24am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,150 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,250, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,636.68 and Bt28,750, respectively.
At close on Thursday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,000 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,100, while gold ornaments were Bt27,500.24 and Bt28,600, respectively.
Spot gold price moved to US$1,942 (Bt59,645) per ounce in the morning after the price rose sharply by US$50.6 to $1,946.8 per ounce at close on Thursday. Gold’s gains came from the Bank of England’s move to increase the credit limit of its quantitative easing programme in a bid to stimulate the economy, as well as the weakening dollar.
Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$270 to $17,970 (Bt71,187) per tael this morning, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Andres Guerra Luz · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, POLITICS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS Oil held near $39 a barrel while investors awaited the outcome of the tightly contested U.S. presidential election with Joe Biden on the brink of claiming a victory.
Futures in New York were little changed, after falling as much as 2.3% earlier in the session. While predictions for a split Congress is fueling optimism that there will be no major changes to taxes or regulations that have underpinned an equity bull market, it also raises the likelihood that any post-election virus aid package will be smaller than initially expected and will face another prolonged negotiation process.
A demand recovery is much needed in the oil market, which is contending with a string of renewed lockdown measures across Europe that further threaten the demand outlook. Greece became the latest European country to declare a national lockdown, while England enters a four-week shutdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.
“Expectations for a Blue Wave where you would have gotten a $3 trillion stimulus, that’s not going to happen,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. “That would have been a huge positive demand event for crude oil.”
OPEC+ faces a tough test at its upcoming meeting at the end of the month, as the producer group weighs whether to move forward with a planned output increase. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia cut most of its oil pricing for Asia, with the demand outlook cloudy. Meanwhile, road traffic in some European countries has fallen to the lowest since June, while air traffic in the continent is seen unlikely to return to 2019 levels within the next for years.
“OPEC+ holds the key to support markets,” Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a note. “The stark reversal in prices – despite the ongoing lockdowns – following reports that Energy Minister Novak discussed a delay in the planned tapering with Russian energy companies lends strength to our view.”
If the current trends hold and there is a divided U.S. government, Biden may have to scale back proposals to remove subsidies for oil producers, said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets. However, he should be able to advance plans to reenter the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which could bring back 1 million barrels a day by the second half of 2021, she said.
Although Biden is closing in on the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the presidency, incumbent Donald Trump has sought a recount in Wisconsin, filed lawsuits in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia and complained about various states’ counting procedures. Recounts and legal challenges could lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty.
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Reade Pickert · BUSINESS More Americans than expected filed for state unemployment benefits last week, underscoring churn in a labor market that continues to recover only gradually.
Initial jobless claims in regular state programs totaled 751,000 in the week ended Oct. 31, down from an upwardly revised 758,000 in the prior week, Labor Department data showed Thursday. On an unadjusted basis, the number of applications was little changed.
Continuing claims — or the total number of Americans claiming ongoing state unemployment assistance — fell by 538,000 to 7.29 million in the week ended Oct. 24, the sixth straight decline. Still, the number of people claiming support in a federal program that offers extended assistance increased as more Americans exhausted their regular state benefits.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 735,000 initial claims and 7.2 million continuing claims. The higher-than-forecast new state claims reading reflected an outsize 23,200 increase in Illinois from the week before. Applications also accelerated in Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio.
The report comes amid a marathon week for the U.S., complete with a still-undecided presidential election, a Federal Reserve policy meeting, and the monthly jobs report. Applications for jobless benefits have declined in recent months, though they remain extremely high, as businesses continue to experience fallout from the pandemic.
The S&P 500 jumped at the open, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed and the dollar fell.
The October jobs report, out Friday, is forecast to show 600,000 jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate declined further. The projected gain in payrolls, while solid, would mark a fourth consecutive month of moderating job growth. Data out Wednesday from ADP Research Institute showed companies in the U.S. added fewer jobs in October than forecast, though the two reports have often differed greatly in the last six months.
Nearly 4 million people claimed Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, the federal program that provides up to 13 additional weeks of jobless benefits, in the week ended Oct. 17. While the improvement in continuing claims has been partly due to Americans heading back to work, many unemployed have simply exhausted regular state benefits and shifted into the pandemic program.
Some states saw bigger declines in initial claims from the prior week, including Massachusetts, Georgia, New York, Michigan and Florida.
Separate from the headline number, initial applications for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or the federal program that provides jobless benefits to those not typically eligible like the self-employed, totaled 362,883 last week.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said the pace of the economic recovery has moderated over the past few months and cautioned that the recent rise in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the world is “particularly concerning.”
Powell said Fed officials expect the pace of the recovery to ease compared to strong gains from May and June in economic benchmarks from the labor market to consumer spending, especially given how deeply the economy was gutted in the spring.
Powell’s remarks at a virtual news conference following the Fed’s two-day policy meeting came just one day after the number of new U.S. coronavirus infections topped 100,000 for the first time in a single day.
“We have been concerned that the downside risks though are prevalent now, which are really the risk of the further spread of the disease and also the risk that households will run through the savings they’ve managed to accumulate on their balance sheet, and that could weigh on activity,” Powell said. “What we see is continued growth, continued expansion but at a gradually moderated pace.”
Case counts have been escalating, with a surge spreading across the Midwest and Plains states. Health officials fear the coronavirus crisis will intensify even further going into the flu season. And as colder weather forces people indoors, restaurants, bars and other venues may be limited in how much business they can safely conduct outside.
“We’ve gotten through the first five to six months of the expansion better than expected,” Powell said. “But we do see in Europe – and look what’s happening here – a spike in cases as the cold weather arrives. I think we have to be humble relative to where we are with this disease.”
The Fed signaled on Thursday that policymakers would stick to their current economic response, keeping interest rates near zero. Meanwhile, the nation waits for final election results, is gripped by a pandemic and stares down an uncertain recovery.
“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” according to a statement released after the Fed’s meeting.
The Fed’s regular meeting fell as votes from Tuesday’s presidential election continued to be counted. When asked about the election, Powell said he was “very reluctant to comment on the election, directly or indirectly.”
Uncertainty around who will be in the White House in January is also obscuring any guesses at the timing and scope of another stimulus package, as millions of struggling households, businesses and local governments stare down a difficult winter.
Powell has long cautioned that the recovery rests on getting the public health crisis under control, which would give people more confidence to resume their old routines and spending habits. On Thursday, Powell again asserted that the country would have a stronger recovery with more fiscal aid.
“You see a lot of discussion on both sides of the aisle, on both sides of the Hill, that suggest generally that there will be something,” Powell said.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Wednesday said a stimulus bill would be the priority when the Senate goes back into session next Monday and should be completed before the end of the year. McConnell said a deal could include state and local aid, which Democrats have long advocated for.
Powell has repeatedly called for more aid from Congress, particularly when it comes to getting direct relief to those in industries most affected by the pandemic, such as restaurants, retail and hospitality. The Fed has also come under increased pressure to widen the reach of its own emergency lending programs and to consider new ways it can fill the economy’s lingering gaps.
Powell said the Fed was not out of ammunition. For now, the Fed is continuing to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to keep the markets healthy.
“If things deteriorate, that’d be a case where you would want to continue the facilities and maybe change them and have some new ones,” Powell said.
Powell said the Fed was “just now turning” to questions about whether to extend the emergency lending programs beyond the end of this year. Those decision would have to be made jointly with the Treasury Department. Powell declined to specify whether he had spoken with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin specifically about the extension.
Powell on Thursday said that the existing facilities have “generally served their purposes” and have supported the flow of credit to the markets. Yet the Fed’s The $600 billion Main Street lending facility has been widely criticized for stringent requirements and meager uptake, and has so far only issued $3.7 billion in loans. Last week, the Fed widened the program’s terms by lowering the minimum loan threshold from $250,000 to $100,000.
Powell has said that many companies can’t take on more debt at the moment might be better served by a grant from the Paycheck Protection Program, which Congress could redeploy in another stimulus package.
Economists warn that the country is headed for a devastating winter, one that could be exacerbated by political gridlock in the wake of this week’s election. Millions of Americans risk having their power and water shut off as unpaid utility bills come due. And without more federal action, protections for renters, out-of-work Americans and students borrowers will expire by the end of the year.
All of those factors have cast doubt on how quickly the economy will recover in the final stretch of 2020. By the end of the third quarter, the economy had recovered two-thirds of the ground it lost during the first half of the year. But much uncertainty remains.
The October jobs report, set to be released Friday morning, will offer a new snapshot of how many Americans have been brought back into the workforce, and whether the pace of jobs is waning. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that 751,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, slightly below claims from the week prior but still well above pre-pandemic levels.
“We are a long way from our goal,” Powell said. “We’re sort of halfway there on the labor market recovery at best and there are parts of the economy where it is going to be hard until there is a vaccine.”
By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric, Claire Ballentine · BUSINESS
Stocks rallied globally as investors rushed back into technology and health-care firms on bets that the U.S. election results will mean no major tax hikes or regulatory changes that would derail the sectors. The dollar weakened to the lowest level in more than two years.
The S&P 500 jumped more than 1% for a fourth consecutive day and is headed for the best week since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged 2.6%, pushing its advance this week more than 9%. Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates near zero and made no change to asset purchases as the results of U.S. presidential and congressional elections remain uncertain.
“We’re seeing a resumption in leadership from technology,” said Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy for Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “It appears markets really like the combination they think is most likely in terms of leadership going forward and that would be a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate.”
Vote counting continues in a handful of key states, with Democrat Joe Biden potentially needing to win just one to unseat President Donald Trump. That outcome could be accompanied by a divided legislature that is less likely to pass a multi-trillion-dollar stimulus package.
“In the short-run, the focus will remain on the prospects for a new fiscal package out of Congress, which may be possible before year-end once the election results are settled,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede. “But for now, the size, scope, and timing of that next package still remains unclear.”
The dollar retreated the most versus the euro since March. Oil declined for the first time in four sessions.
Increases in tech shares and some strong corporate results buoyed the Stoxx Europe 600 index. Uber Technologies Inc. and Peloton Interactive Inc. will release results after the close of U.S. trading.
Elsewhere, U.K. government bonds reversed an early advance as investors shifted their focus to the slower pace of debt-buying implied by the Bank of England’s new asset-purchase targets. Bitcoin climbed by more than $1,000 to over $15,000, more than doubling its value in 2020.
These are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.9% to 3,510.41 as of 4:02 p.m. EST, the highest in more than three weeks.
The Dow Jones industrial average increased 1.9% to 28,390.51, the highest in almost three weeks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.6% to 11,890.93, the highest in two months.
The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 2.6% to 12,078.07, the highest in more than three weeks.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1% to 367.12, hitting the highest in almost three weeks with its fifth straight advance.
The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 2.2% to 591.61, the highest in more than three weeks on the biggest climb in more than 20 weeks.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 1% to 1,153.07, the lowest in more than two years on the largest decrease in more than seven months.
The euro increased 0.9% to $1.1827, the strongest in almost two weeks on the biggest increase in five months.
The Japanese yen appreciated 1% to 103.53 per dollar, the strongest in eight months on the largest rise in almost 10 weeks.
Bonds
The yield on two-year Treasurys increased less than one basis point to 0.15%.
The yield on 10-year Treasurys gained one basis point to 0.77%.
The yield on 30-year Treasurys dipped one basis point to 1.54%, the lowest in almost three weeks.
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to -0.64%.
Britain’s 10-year yield jumped three basis points to 0.234%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $38.52 a barrel, the largest fall in a week.
Gold surged 2.5% to $1,950.65 an ounce, the highest in almost seven weeks on the biggest jump in more than seven months.
Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives Chalermchai Sri-on
By The Nation
The Agriculture Ministry is studying the effect of the United States’ move to suspend trade privileges on Thai products under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
Chantanont Wannakhajorn, secretary-general of the ministry’s Agricultural Economics (OAE) office, said the office is studying the impact on the agricultural sector after the US cut GSP privileges in retaliation for Thailand not opening its pork market.
The GSP suspension will affect 44 Thai agricultural products, including vegetables, fruits, nuts, spices, seeds and spores, and vegetable fats and oils.
US import tax on these goods has now been raised from zero to between 1.9 and 9.6 per cent, costing Thai importers an estimated extra Bt17.72 million and making their goods more expensive.
Prices will rise for five products: live crops, fats and vegetable oils, processed vegetables, glucose syrup, and spices. In addition, nine other agricultural products are now subject to specific-rate taxation.
The ministry will focus on expanding trade in other markets to reduce dependence on the US, for example by accelerating trade talks with the European Union and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives Chalermchai Sri-on has ordered Thailand’s agricultural ambassador to gather information so the ministry can adapt policies for foreign demand next year after the Covid-19 crisis. The information includes rule adjustments by trading partners on illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and on the EU’s Green Deal policy.
Commerce minister mulls opening service sector to foreign investment
EconNov 06. 2020Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanavisit, meets with foreign investors on Thursday to discuss liberalisation of the service sector.
By The Nation
The Commerce Ministry is mulling whether to open more service-sector businesses to foreign investors, lured by promises of more investment and high-paid jobs.
Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, says relaxing rules for service businesses will lead to more foreign investment and high-paid jobs for youth.
Foreign investors led by Stanley Kang, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand (JFCCT), met with Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanavisit for talks on lifting restrictions in the Foreign Act Business on Thursday.
Foreign investors want rules changed so they can take 100-per-cent ownership of service-sector businesses in List 3 (protected for Thais) under the Foreign Business Act, Jurin said after the meeting.
Foreign investors said liberalising ownership rules would lead to more investment amid the Covid-19 pandemic, said Jurin. “We accepted their proposals for consideration,” he added.
The Commerce Ministry plans to lift restrictions on some List 3 service businesses, according to a senior government official.
List 3 covers businesses in which Thai nationals are not ready to compete with foreigners.
Thosapone Dansuputra, director general of the Business Development Department, said the Commerce Ministry will submit the proposal for liberalisation to Cabinet soon. Among the sectors listed in the proposal is telecoms. If Cabinet gives the green light, foreign investors such as Chinese companies could run telecom services in Thailand by renting networks owned by Thai companies, he said.
Financial services covering foreign exchange rate management within corporate groups operating in Thailand are also on the list. Others are software development related to Big Data, data analytics and predictive analytic software, cybersecurity software, software for the internet of things (IoT) and software to support the manufacturing sector, added Thosapone.
Meanwhile, Kang told the Nation that Thailand not only needs to amend its foreign business law but also related regulations such as the telecom business law, which are still an obstacle to foreign investment.
Opening Thailand’s software development market to foreigners would create high-paid jobs for the young generation and boost the country’s competitiveness, he said.
Liberalisation was also essential for the success of smart city projects the government and private sectors are trying to develop, Kang added.
So far, foreign investors have pumped money into the IT sectors of Vietnam and Malaysia, whose investment laws are looser than Thailand’s.
Jurin and the group of foreign business leaders also discussed the prospects for several free trade deals Thailand is negotiating. The major ones are the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and free trade deals with the European Union and with United Kingdom. Investors also wanted to know whether Thailand will join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
They also told Jurin that the high cost of logistics in Thailand was hindering business potential.
Meanwhile, foreign business leaders want the government to open the country to foreign tourists by shortening the 14-day quarantine, added Jurin.
Joseph Caceres, the new head of investment advisory and solutions, SCB-Julius Baer Securities Co Ltd 
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 
Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanavisit, meets with foreign investors on Thursday to discuss liberalisation of the service sector. .JPG)
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