#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Stocks hit highest point since February on tech rally

EconJul 21. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Anchalee Worrachate, Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS 

U.S. stocks advanced to the highest since February, with the stay-at-home trade thriving even as investors received encouraging news on a potential virus vaccine. The dollar weakened to an almost six-month low.

The S&P 500 turned positive for the year as its rally took it to levels last seen just as the pandemic was starting. The Nasdaq 100 jumped the most since April after Amazon.com and Zoom Technologies soared on demand for companies that benefit from diminished economic activity. AstraZeneca jumped to a record after results from a vaccine trial were published, but the rally faded after analysts said the data, while good, weren’t as stellar as hoped for. A slew of earnings are due this week, including from Microsoft, Intel, Tesla and Twitter.

Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington, where lawmakers are starting to hammer out a rescue package to replace some of the expiring benefits earlier versions contained. Euro-area leaders appeared close to an agreement on stimulus, while the total size of the recovery package is in flux, an earlier proposal was for 750 billion euros ($858 billion).

Italy’s 10-year bond yield spread over Germany, a key gauge of risk in the euro region, fell to the lowest level since March. Oil climbed above $40 a barrel. European stocks advanced.

While stock markets have inched higher in recent weeks, there are still plenty of worries about the health of the global economy, especially with the virus spreading unabated in parts of the U.S. In the euro area, unemployment could hit almost 10% by the end of the year as the economy slumps, according to a Bloomberg survey.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo threatened, D, to close down all bars and restaurants if large street gatherings continue and his social distance and mask regulations aren’t enforced. Hong Kong added a record 108 infections, will require civil servants to work from home and plans to mandate wearing of masks in all shared indoor areas.

“The economic dislocation of Covid-19 triggered a tremendous response by fiscal and monetary policymakers as well as central banks,” said Gene Tannuzzo, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle. “These measures helped to stabilize markets, yet we still find ourselves in an environment of continuous low growth.”

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index gained 0.8% to 3,251.84 as of 4:01 p.m.EDT, the highest in five months.

The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.5% to 10,767.09, the highest on record with the biggest climb in almost 12 weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average was little changed at 26,680.93.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.8% to 375.51, the highest in more than 19 weeks.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.2% to 1,202.49, the lowest in almost six weeks.

The euro climbed 0.1% to $1.1445, the strongest in 19 weeks.

The Japanese yen depreciated 0.3% to 107.32 per dollar, the weakest in almost two weeks.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell one basis point to 0.61%, the lowest in more than 11 weeks on the biggest fall in a week.

Germany’s 10-year yield dipped one basis point to -0.46%.

Britain’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to 0.151%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.2% to $40.68 a barrel.

Gold strengthened 0.4% to $1,818.48 an ounce, the highest in about nine years.

Copper advanced 0.6% to $2.92 a pound, the largest gain in a week.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

‘Good progress’ on 7 new regional airports

EconJul 21. 2020

By The Nation

The Department of Airports (DOA) has spent Bt14 billion in 2019-20 to develop new airports and boost capacity at its existing 29 airports, said Deputy Transport Minister Thaworn Senneam. The projects are part of a 10-year airports plan (2015-2024) with a total budget Bt36.634 billion.

For 2021, the DOA has received a budget of Bt5.8 billion to upgrade regional air hubs such as Krabi airport, which is using Bt6 billion in funds from 2019-2021 budgets to construct a new passenger terminal after Phase 3 renovation, as well as constructing an apron to accommodate large aircraft. Construction is expected to be complete in 2022.

However, in line with the strategy of spreading wealth to the regions, Thaworn is also pushing the DOA for progress on constructing new commercial airports in provinces that do not have an air link with main airports like Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang. Thailand has a plan to develop seven such airports in Phatthalung, Satun, Bueng Kan, Mukdahan, Phayao, Kalasin and Nakhon Pathom.

He added that construction of Nakhon Pathom airport is making good progress, with a feasibility study completed and an environmental impact assessment (EIA) under way. The project will next be screened by the Transport Ministry before Cabinet approval by the end of this year.

Likewise, the feasibility study on the Bt4-Bt5 million Mukdahan airport project is ready to be presented to the ministry.

As for the new airports in Phatthalung, Satun, and Bueng Kan, the DOA is studying the possibility of construction. Meanwhile, the Phayao and Kalasin airport projects are in the process of requesting financial support in 2021 to begin feasibility studies.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Bank shares take hit as Q2 results revealed

EconJul 21. 2020

By The Nation

The value of bank shares dropped today as financial institutions began releasing second-quarter results that were worse than expected.

As of July 20, the share value of Thailand’s top five banks with market capitalisation over Bt100 billion – namely Kasikorn Bank (KBank), Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), Bangkok Bank (BBL), Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) and Krungthai Bank (KTB) – fell by 3.60 per cent, 3.37 per cent, 2.74 per cent, 1.85 per cent, and 0.95 per cent, respectively.

The first two banks to release second-quarter results were Tisco Financial Group (Tisco) and KBank.

Tisco’s second-quarter net profit was Bt1.33 billion, down 26 per cent year on year. The figure was 15 per cent lower than market expectation due to a net interest margin (NIM) that dropped to 4.32 per cent from 4.6 per cent in the previous quarter after the bank cut interest to help debtors.

Tisco’s non-performing loans (NPLs) rose from 2.56 per cent in Q1 to 3.28 per cent due to the economic slowdown. The bank revealed that only 10 per cent of debtors opted to postpone their debt repayments.

Meanwhile, KBank’s second-quarter net profit was Bt2.17 billion, down 78 per cent from the same period last year of Bt9.92 billion, while net profit in the first half of this year was Bt9.55 billion, down 52 per cent from last year’s Bt19.9 billion. The bank’s NPLs at the end of June this year rose to 3.92 per cent from 3.65 per cent at the end of 2019.

An analyst at Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) said that with debt repayments hit by the economic slowdown, the proportion of NPLs to total loans is expected to increase from 3.05 per cent in the first quarter to 3.4 per cent in the second quarter.

“Meanwhile, credit costs to total loans will rise to 1.65-1.9 per cent from 1.46 per cent in the previous quarter due to increasing credit risks,” the analyst said. “Every 0.1-per-cent rise credit cost will reduce banks’ net profit by about Bt3.3 billion to Bt4 billion.”

The analyst said that banks will plan their business strategy based on an economy hit hard this year, and it may take years for issues like debt quality to return to normal.

“Although the economy is likely to improve next year, NPLs are also likely to increase in the next one or two years, causing several banks to set up more allowance for doubtful accounts,” the analyst said.

“We expect banks’ second-quarter net profit to drop by 42-52.2 per cent to Bt26.8 billion-Bt32.5 billion due to the decline in NIM [net interest margin] which we expect will drop to 2.2-2.5 per cent from 3 per cent in the first quarter.

Nuttachart Mekmasin, a research analyst at Trinity Securities, said the decline in bank profits showed that the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s measure to postpone debt repayments cannot reduce NPLs because the quality of debtors who did not participate in the project has dropped sharply, adding that this factor would cause banks to pay low dividends.

“The consensus is that the banks will pay the same dividends as last year,” he said. “However, investors may be disappointed because under the pressure of the current situation banks may not be able to match last year’s dividends, while disappointment among investors may cause the price of bank shares to drop.”

He said the share prices would, however, not drop sharply because they were lower than the book value, adding that bank share prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.

“We advise investors to avoid investing in this group because the dividend is likely to drop over 3 per cent,” he added.

An analyst at Asia Plus Securities expected the NPLs to increase from 2.4 per cent at the end of 2019 to 4.7 per cent at year-end 2020, adding that the increase may spark negative sentiment for bank shares in the short term.

“Therefore, we advise investors to delay investment in bank shares until they announce the second-quarter performance,” the analyst said. “Also, we advise following announcements on banks’ NPLs, loan classification, credit losses, and the number of debtors participating in the loan payment holiday measure.”

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Recovering Thailand doesn’t need IMF bailout: Veerathai

EconJul 21. 2020Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob delivers his speech at the central bank’s July 20 symposium on how local businesses can survive in post-Covid-19.

By The Nation

Thailand has no need to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund despite Covid-19 causing a sharp economic contraction, capital outflows and deterioration in the labour market, says the central bank’s chief.

Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob acknowledged on Monday (July 20) it would take time for the economy to recover to pre-pandemic levels. But he vowed to extend this year’s Bt500-billion soft loans package into next year to fuel the recovery.

Veerathai was speaking at the central bank’s symposium on how local businesses can survive in the post-Covid-19 era.

The pandemic has hit economies around the world hard, prompting over 100 countries to ask for IMF rescue packages. But Thailand would not be one of them, said the BOT chief.

“For people raising concerns over whether we will have to ask for IMF help, the answer is that we do not need it, despite 102 members already requesting IMF aid,” said Veerathai.

The Thai economy is expected to fall further than many in the region this year, with worse to come in the second quarter before it gradually recovers, he said, forecasting the economy could return to pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of next year.

He said that no single policy could handle the current crisis effectively, and the government needs to coordinate many policies and measures.

For its monetary policy, the central bank has this year cut its key policy rate three times to a historic low of 0.5 per cent.

Capital has flowed out of the country but not at an alarming rate, given that Thailand is still running a small current account surplus. So the country could maintain a low interest rate, he said. However, local financial markets are also flooded with liquidity, which together with excess liquidity in the global market could cause the baht exchange rate to fluctuate greatly, he cautioned.

“The central bank’s biggest concern is employment, because the Covid-19 pandemic has adversely affected the labour market in both the services and manufacturing sectors, where large numbers of workers were laid off,” he said. Even if the pandemic situation improves, many workers may not be able return to work, he warned.

He pointed out that current overcapacity and many factories had also installed robots to replace workers.

As a result, new graduates will find it more difficult to get jobs over the next two years.

“The challenge during this two-year period of how to ensure new graduates aren’t scarred is a cause for concern,” he warned.

He was optimistic, however, that bad debt in the banking system will not lead to a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

“The impact of Covid-19 will definitely see non-performing loans [NPLs] rise, but as we have implemented preemptive measures, NPLs will not spike,” he said.

Debt restructuring  will allow everyone to survive and avoid the prospect of a 1997 financial crisis scenario, he said.

Regarding its soft loan package, the central bank will extend the deadline for applications from the end of this year to the end of 2021, he said.

Moreover, the central bank is in talks with the Thai Credit Guarantee Corp(TCG) over credit insurance after the two-year soft loan package ends, Veerathai added.

The central bank predicts the Thai economy will contract 8.1 per cent this year as exports and tourism are hard hit by the virus crisis. It forecasts the economy will now gradually start to recover as lockdown restrictions have been eased.

Meanwhile, Somkiat Tangkitvanich, president of the Thailand Development Research Institute, predicted a rise in the number of poor along with a deterioration of the government’s fiscal position in the next five or six years.

The virus impact will see more people working from home. For businesses to survive, they have to cut costs, diversify risk and connect with networks. Holding cash will be the best option, he suggested.

Strong businesses may have an opportunity to acquire small regional businesses at cheaper prices. New businesses may emerge, as did e-commerce giant Alibaba when SARS hit China last decade, he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

EU inches closer to stimulus deal with major obstacle overcome

EconJul 20. 2020European Union (EU) flags fly from flagpoles outside the Berlaymont building in Brussels on Oct. 9, 2019. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Jasper Juinen. Photo by: Jasper Juinen — Bloomberg Location: Brussels, Belgium

By Syndication The Washington Post, Bloomberg · Boris Groendahl, Jonathan Stearns 

The European Union moved closer to agreeing on a massive stimulus package to reboot the economy after four of the bloc’s governments that have been holding up negotiations indicated they were ready to agree on a key plank of the deal, officials said.

After negotiating through the night, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden are satisfied with 390 billion euros ($450 billion) of the fund being made available as grants with the rest coming as low-interest loans, the officials said, asking not be named discussing private conversations. The total size of the recovery package is in flux, but an earlier proposal was for 750 billion euros.

The bloc’s 27 leaders will gather again at 4 p.m. in Brussels to settle the outstanding issues such as the overall size of the fund and the mechanisms for controlling its spending. A French official said that their delegation now see a path to a full deal.

“After lengthy talks last night, we worked out a framework for a possible agreement,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday. “It’s progress and gives hope that perhaps today an agreement will be made, or at least that an agreement is possible.”

The progress boosted markets, with the euro rising to a four-month high. Italy’s 10-year bond yield spread over Germany, a key gauge of risk in the region, fell to the lowest level since March.

The proposal under discussion earmarks a third of the recovery fund and the next budget — more than half a trillion euros — for projects that contribute to fighting climate change. On top of that, any expenditure that’s not consistent with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases will not be approved, making it the greenest stimulus the world has seen.

That would help Europe reach its 2050 climate-neutrality target and also could convince the frugal nations, which support stepping up efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, to endorse the deal.

With investors already pricing in an agreement after a series of bold announcements in recent weeks, leaders are under intense pressure to bridge their differences. At times the discussions grew heated, with several officials saying the whole negotiation was on the brink of collapse during Sunday’s dinner session as familiar fault lines emerged between the richer northern nations and the southern countries worst affected by the coronavirus.

“It didn’t look good at a couple of moments tonight but taking everything together, I believe progress has been made,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.

“We are willing to make the shift from loans to subsidies if reforms are taking place and if these reforms can be enforced,” he added. “There is a very good text on this now and my impression is that it has consensus support.”

Rutte and his allies have been trying to water down the handouts that the highly indebted southern countries see as critical for shoring up their finances — the European Commission’s initial proposal included 500 billion euros of grants.

Yet for all the frustration facing Rutte from the other side of the table, his opponents can’t afford to push him too far. The Dutch prime minister has just 75 deputies in his country’s 150-seat parliament so he’ll need opposition support to ratify any deal he strikes with the bloc.

When the leaders gather this afternoon, they’ll still have to overcome two contentious issues: how to make sure the funding is properly used and whether to make distributions contingent on the adherence to democratic standards.

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed cautious optimism that EU leaders would seal a recovery deal later on Monday, saying progress had been made in bridging key differences.

“There is a spirit of compromise that is there,” Macron told reporters as he arrived on the fourth day of the EU summit. “There were tense moments. There will no doubt still be moments that are difficult. But on this issue matters have advanced.”

Macron warned that any EU failure to reach an agreement would end up costing the bloc more and vowed to keep working closely with Merkel on a successful outcome.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET subdued as investors wait for banks’ Q2 results

EconJul 20. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,358.29 today (July 20), down 1.29 points or 0.09 per cent. The volume of total transactions was Bt52.303 billion with an index high of 1,365.71 and a low of 1,352.03.

In the morning session, a stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,350 and 1,370 as investors waited for banks and financial institutions’ to announce their second-quarter performances this week. Results are expected to see a drop both quarter on quarter and year on year.

“Meanwhile, uncertainty following the rising number of Covid-19 cases, especially in the US, would cause an impact on economic recovery,” the analyst said.

“However, the index would gain support from mass buy-ups of shares in companies whose second-quarter performance would improve.”

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were KBANK, EA, BAM, CPF, SCC, STGT, CPALL, PTT, ADVANC and AOT.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil had dropped by US$0.17 or 0.42 per cent to $40.42 per barrel, while gold rose by $2.40 or 0.13 per cent, to $1,812.40 per ounce.

Changes in Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 22,717.48, up 21.06 points, or 0.093 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,314.15, up 100.02 points, or 3.11 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,448.85, up 333.91 points, or 2.55 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,057.99, down 31.18 points, or 0.12 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,198.20, down 2.99 points, or 2.14 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,174.54, down 7.02 points, or 0.058 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Opportunistic travel operators will be punished, warns Finance Ministry

EconJul 20. 2020

By The Nation

The Finance Ministry has announced that it will punish any tourism operator that is caught overcharging under the “Rao Tiew Duay Kan” (We Travel Together) stimulus campaign.

Meanwhile, Lavaron Sangsnit, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said that more than 6,000 hotel operators have shown interest in joining the campaign, and since July 18, most participants have been offering special travel deals to help boost the tourism industry.

The tourism sector, which contributes greatly to the Thai economy, has come to a standstill since Covid-19 hit the country.

The Finance Ministry said operators who are taking advantage of the scheme by increasing their prices will be cracked down upon, adding that consumers now are savvy enough to compare prices and opt for the fairest deal.

Meanwhile, La-iad Bunsrithong, president of Thai Hotels Association (upper North), said the association has told members to maintain their regular room rates.

Her remark came after it was reported that some hotels had upped their prices to take advantage of the government’s tourism stimulus measures. She said hotel rooms in Chiang Mai, ranging from five-star hotels to small inns, have always been affordable, adding that none of the operators have compromised on service quality.

La-iad said so far, only 20 per cent of the 3,500 rooms under the association in Chiang Mai are occupied, or an average of 10 rooms per night per hotel, because it is not high season yet.

Chiang Mai hotels say that they will manage to survive and plan for the October-March high season if they can have 50-per-cent occupancy now.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Perfect time to cash in on gold, say experts

EconJul 20. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold is expected to rise beyond Bt28,000 per baht weight this week and this may be the perfect time to make profits in the short term, Gold Traders Association chairman Jitti Tangsitpakdee said.

He expects the price of gold in global markets this week to move between US$1,775 and $1,845 per ounce, while domestically it is expected to hover between Bt27,500 and Bt28,000 per baht weight.

“The price of gold will hit a historic high if it rises over Bt27,200 per baht weight, so investors can sell gold to take profits in the short term,” he pointed out.

Meanwhile, YLG Bullion International, a large exporter and importer of gold bars in Thailand, said the precious metal had yielded the highest returns this year.

“Globally, gold has yielded more than 16 per cent in the first half of the year, higher than all of 2019, which only yielded returns of 10 per cent,” an analyst at YLG Bullion International said. “Domestically, gold yielded returns that were 20 per cent higher than the same period last year.”

The analyst added that there is a chance of gold prices hitting $1,920 per ounce this year, and advised investors to hold 5 to 10 per cent of gold in their portfolios.

“We also advise investors to watch out for factors that affect the price, such as a second wave of Covid-19, the US Federal Reserves move to ease the monetary policy and the US-China trade war,” the analyst said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Second-quarter corporate results to sway SET direction

EconJul 20. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index fell by 1.45 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 1,358.13 in the morning session on Monday (July 20).

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,350 and 1,370 as investors could delay investment to follow banks and financial institutions’ second-quarter performance announcement this week. Results are expected to see a drop both quarter on quarter and year on year.

“Meanwhile, uncertainty following the rising number of Covid-19 cases, especially in the US, would cause an impact on economic recovery,” the analyst said.

“However, the index would gain support from mass buy-up of shares in companies whose second-quarter performance would improve.”

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎ Food and electronic stocks that benefit from the weakening baht, such as TU, CPF, GFPT, TFG, ASIAN, KCE, DELTA, HANA and SVI.

▪︎ Stocks whose second-quarter performance will improve, such as TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, SCC, BGRIM, CKP, CPF, TU, TASCO, STA, STGT, SPALI, PRM, PTL, AJ, STARK, CBG and TQM.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Friday (July 17) closed at 1,359.58, up 11.72 points or 0.87 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt41.354 billion with an index high of 1,361.39 and a low of 1,350.10.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold hits new high in Thailand amid global economic uncertainty

EconJul 20. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt50 per baht weight in morning trade on Monday (July 20), the highest since the gold price has been announced in the country, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.30am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,050 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,150, while gold ornaments cost Bt26,560.32 and Bt27,650, respectively.

At close on Saturday (July 18), the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,000 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,100, while gold ornaments cost Bt26,514.84 and Bt27,600, respectively.

Spot gold price moved to US$1,807 (Bt57,412) on Monday morning after the price rose by $9.7 to $1,810 (Bt57,508) per ounce at Friday’s close.

Gold has gained from expectations that the US and Europe will issue additional economic stimulus measures and there will be mass buy-up of gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainty about the Covid-19 impact on the global economy after the number of new cases has continued to rise.

Hong Kong gold price opened at $16,710 (Bt68,502) per tael this morning.