#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Second-quarter results could influence SET Index direction

Econ

Jul 17. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 6.80 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 1,354.66 in the morning session on Friday (July 17).

A stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fall to 1,340 before rebounding due to a lack of new positive sentiments to stimulate investment.

“The index is still under pressure from tensions between the US and China after the US imposed visa restrictions on Chinese technology company employees, citing that these companies supported the Chinese government in abusing human rights,” the analyst said.

“Also, the US number of initial jobless claims at over 1 million positions would pressure the index.”

However, the analyst said that the index would rebound from mass buy-offs in shares whose second-quarter performance would improve.

“We advise investors to follow banks and financial institutions’ second-quarter performance announcements,” the analyst added. “We expect banks and financial institutions’ second-quarter performance to drop, both quarter on quarter and year on year.”

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎ Food and electronic stocks that benefit from the weakening baht, such as TU, CPF, GFPT, TFG, ASIAN, KCE, DELTA, HANA and SVI.

▪︎ Stocks whose second-quarter performance will improve, such as TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, SCC, BGRIM, CKP, CPF, TU, TASCO, STA, STGT, SPALI, PRM, PTL, AJ, STARK, CBG and TQM.

The SET Index closed at 1,348 on Thursday (July 16), down six points or 0.48 per cent. The volume of total transactions was Bt47.8 billion.

The index fell in response to the decline in foreign stock markets due to tensions between the US and China after US President Donald Trump signed a sanctions bill on China and an executive order to end Hong Kong’s special status. Meanwhile, China announced it would impose sanctions on US organisations and personnel as well.

Net sales in stocks by foreign investors amounted to Bt1.979 billion, while net buys in bonds amounted to Bt3.566 billion. There were 2,039 net long Thailand Futures Exchange contracts.

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Baht drops to lowest level in weeks as investors move money out

Econ

Jul 17. 2020

By The Nation

The baht opened at 31.73 to the US dollar on Friday morning (July 17), weakening from Thursday’s close of 31.69, falling to its lowest since the beginning of June.

The Thai currency is expected to move between Bt31.67 and 31.87, said Jitipol Puksamatanan, head of Markets Strategy at SCB Securities.

“The baht continues to weaken due to foreign investors’ mass sell-offs to take profits in response to uncertainty following the second coronavirus wave and the Cabinet reshuffle,” he said. “We expect the baht to recover after industry and tourism sectors across the Asian region resume their operation.”

On Thursday night, the financial markets were unchanged. The price of technology shares decreased after many listed companies announced their second quarter performance. The S&P 500 fell by 0.3 per cent, while Stoxx Euro 600 fell by 0.5 per cent.

“The US number of initial jobless claims stood at 1.3 million positions although the number of continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million positions, showing that the labour market recovery was slower than expected,” Jitipol pointed out.

“Meanwhile, the European Central Bank still maintains its monetary policy, injecting liquidity of €1.35 trillion into the system to stimulate the economy and is retaining the interest rate at minus 0.5 per cent.”

The US dollar strengthened by 0.3 per cent as investors turned to safe haven assets because the stock market is still high risk and the price of oil dropped by 1.1 per cent due to uncertainty after large oil manufacturers declined to cut oil production. However, the Australian dollar weakened the most by approximately 0.5 per cent.

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Retail sales jump 7.5% in June even as new covid outbreaks stall reopenings

Econ

Jul 17. 2020

By  The Washington Post · Taylor Telford · BUSINESS, RETAIL 

Retail sales rose 7.5% in June as shoppers returned to stores and restaurants, indicating the economy was bouncing back before fresh coronavirus outbreaks forced some states to roll back reopenings.

Clothing, auto and furniture sales helped fuel more than $524 billion in spending, which puts June retail sales about 1.1% higher than a year ago, according to data released Thursday from the U.S. Commerce Department. Spending in restaurants and bars jumped 20% from the previous month, while gasoline sales soared 20%percent as travel and social activity picked up. Non-store sales, including online shopping, slowed 2.4% but is 23% higher year over year.

“We are cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue, but recent surges in coronavirus infections in hotspots across the country and the expiration of government stimulus programs could put a damper on the recovery in the overall retail sector in the coming months,” Moody’s Vice President Mickey Chadha said in comments emailed to The Washington Post.

May saw a record 17.7% surge in retail sales, a surprise rebound after Americans sharply pulled back on discretionary spending the preceding two months due to the pandemic shutdowns and surging job losses. Retail sales fell 8.3% in March, and 14.7% in April, which is a revised figure.

The June retail sales stood in sharp contrast to weekly jobless claims data, which showed that 1.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, the 17th week in a row in which claims exceeded 1 million. Although some Americans have gotten back to work as states have reopened, nearly 15 million Americans who lost their jobs in March and April haven’t been rehired, which is as many people out of work as during the worst of the Great Recession.

The economic data come as Congress debates whether to extend additional federal jobless benefits, currently $600 a week, that have helped many struggling workers stay afloat. That program is set to expire at the end of July.

“Retail purchases are up at the shops and malls across America but consumer spending can’t keep climbing for long when it is held back by the heavy weight of 32 million jobless workers,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist with MUFG Union Bank, wrote in comments emailed to The Washington Post.

China, which has seen months of strong economic recovery since it relaxed lockdown restrictions, reported its fifth straight month of declining retail sales on Wednesday, a potential foreshadowing of economic struggles ahead even once the pandemic is under control. The worrisome data sparked the steepest sell-off in Chinese stock markets since February.

Retailers are still adjusting their business operations as states and localities puzzle out standards for reopening, including social distancing and mask requirements. On Wednesday, Walmart announced it would require all shoppers to use face coverings, joining Best Buy, Apple and Costco. The nation’s biggest retailer also said it would station “health ambassadors” at the entryways of its 5,300 Walmart and Sam’s Club locations to help with enforcement. 

The mask policies come as covid cases are surging, fueling fears of a return to the shutdowns that have devastated retailers. On July 1, after the United States topped 50,000 new cases in one day, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert warned the nation could expect to see 100,000 new cases a day “if this does not turn around.” On Wednesday, the daily count hit 65,852.

The patchwork approach to masks and the political tempest surrounding them has left retail workers vulnerable as they try to enforce in-store mask policies. In recent weeks, retail workers have been berated and even assaulted by aggressive shoppers.

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Tech leads stocks lower; bond yields decline

Econ

Jul 17. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric, Katherine Greifeld · BUSINESS 

Technology shares pushed U.S. stocks lower for the first time in three days after investors rotated out of this year’s top performers. Treasurys gained with American initial jobless claims posting their smallest weekly decline since March.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s 0.7% decline was among the largest of major U.S. benchmarks, with Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. leading the losses. The information technology, real estate and energy sectors were the biggest decliners in the S&P 500, which had gained more than 2% in the past two days. Utilities and materials finished in the green. Trading volume in the S&P was about 17% below the average of the prior 30 days.

“Those valuations have gotten quite a bit ahead of the rest of the market,” said Matt Stucky, portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. “With earnings season, that could be the catalyst for a little bit of a pullback in tech. Expectations are moving higher and the companies need to deliver against those expectations.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tracked Asian shares lower as Chinese retail sales in June came in softer than expected, even as the economy returned to growth last quarter. The euro strengthened after the European Central Bank kept its emergency monetary stimulus program unchanged.

The economic data from the U.S. and China served as a reminder of the long road ahead to a full global recovery is quashing optimism seen earlier in the week spurred by progress in developing a coronavirus vaccine. While China is experiencing a modest domestic recovery, the world’s second-largest economy remains vulnerable to setbacks as shutdowns continue to hamper activity across the globe.

“There’s definitely a push-pull,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Certain sectors of the economy are going well and the question now is with this second spike that we’re seeing — and have already seen — and as some states start to tighten back up, while we don’t expect a full lockdown it certainly puts questions on just how quickly this recovery is going to occur.”

Elsewhere, oil retreated from a four-month high after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed it would start tapering output cuts from next month.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 3,215.58 as of 4:02 p.m. EDT.

The Dow Jones industrial average dipped 0.4% to 26,734.57, the first retreat in a week.

The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6% to 10,473.83.

The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 0.6% to 545.82, the biggest fall in more than a week.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% to 1,207.48, the largest advance in more than a week.

The euro decreased 0.3% to $1.1381, the first retreat in a week.

The Japanese yen depreciated 0.4% to 107.33 per dollar, the weakest in more than a week on the largest dip in three weeks.

Bonds

The yield on two-year Treasurys declined one basis point to 0.15%, the lowest in two months on the biggest decrease in more than two weeks.

The yield on 10-year Treasurys dipped one basis point to 0.62%.

Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to -0.47%, the lowest in more than two weeks.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $40.73 a barrel.

Gold depreciated 0.7% to $1,796.11 an ounce, the weakest in more than a week on the biggest dip in almost six weeks.

Copper climbed 0.5% to $2.90 a pound.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Too-tight virus policy is strangling economy, experts warn 

Econ

Jul 17. 2020File photo

By The Nation

Thailand should overcome concern of a second wave of Covid-19 and instead relax restrictions on foreign investors and tourists in order to shore up its falling economy, say a prominent investor and leading economist.

“We should not worry too much about the threat of a second wave of infections, since the first wave of Covid-19 is generating far fewer cases compared with other countries,” prominent local investor Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn said on Thursday.

Thailand has implemented tight safety measures to combat the virus, but the Covid-19 issue has two dimensions – disease control and economic activities, he said.

Thailand may need to accept a low level of cases and develop a system to handle this, he said, referring to the absence of local infections for more than 50 days and only a handful of daily imported cases.

He suggested Thailand’s hot weather may be helping to keep the infection rate low, while Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public.

Niwes warned that fear of a second-wave contagion was discouraging people from resuming business activities, resulting in a slower economic recovery. In Vietnam, public life is almost back to normal, with even large gatherings for sports events now permitted, he added.

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), is also pushing for resumption of more economic activities. 

Thailand should learn how to live with a few daily Covid cases, because policies aimed at eradicating the virus completely were having a high economic cost, he said on Facebook. 

Income from foreign investment and tourism represents about 20 per cent of Thailand’s annual GDP, the economist noted. The government should focus on the “trace, test and isolate (TTI)” policy so that foreigners can be gradually welcomed back to the country, he added.

“Initially, we could limit foreign arrivals as per the capacity of the healthcare system to handle new cases of perhaps 20-30 a day. We could open up to more visitors as the TTI capacity was upgraded,” he suggested.

The government has maintained the state of emergency, arguing that it is needed to deal with a possible second-wave contagion. However, critics say the strict measures are hurting small businesses and low-income groups, while pro-democracy groups accuse the government of using the emergency to suppress political opposition.

Meanwhile, foreign tourists will not be allowed back into the country until September, according to the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

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Innovation needed if Thailand wants to be No 1 in global food market: Jurin

Econ

Jul 17. 2020Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit

By The Nation

Thailand will have to focus more on innovative food-production methods to meet global demands if it wants to become the world’s No 1 food exporter, Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said on Thursday (July 16).

Exporters will also have to aggressively safeguard their existing markets, secure new markets as well as upgrade the local logistics system to cut down on related costs, he told a seminar on Thailand’s food sector.

He also said that the government should hasten the signing of free-trade agreements in order to boost the country’s trade competitiveness.

Jurin added that his ministry has joined the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry to develop a Big Data system to share information, boost food standards and safety, as well as upgrade the industry.

Thailand is currently the 11th largest food exporter in the world and it can climb further, he said.

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Another 1.3 million workers file new unemployment claims last week

Econ

Jul 16. 2020

By The Washington Post · Eli Rosenberg · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

About 1.3 million workers filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week – the 17th straight week that new claims exceeded one million as the coronavirus pandemic continues to drag down the economy.

Nearly 17.4 million workers were continually claiming unemployment insurance for the week ending July 4, the Department of Labor said. And another 14.3 million people were claiming Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the program newly created for self-employed or gig workers who are out of work at the moment, bringing the total number of people on all programs to 32 million unemployed.

“What we’re seeing is continued, historic elevated rates of job loss in the United States,” said Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “We’ve seen sustained elevated rates of job loss, and that’s continued as we hurdle toward the expiration of several programs that have propped up the economy.”

The weekly filings decreased only slightly from the previous week, when 1.31 million workers filed for unemployment for the first time. They have steadily decreased from their high of 6.9 million filings for the week ending March 28, but the rate has slowed significantly in the last month.

Jobless claims are still nearly double the worst weeks in previous economic crises, including 665,000 during the Great Recession and 695,000, the previous record, from 1982.

The numbers come as Congress debates whether to extend additional federal jobless benefits, currently $600 a week, that have helped many struggling workers stay afloat. That program is set to expire at the end of July.

And the virus’ surge around the country has touched off a new round of closures that have dashed any remaining hopes of a quick economic recovery.

There are signs that job losses are touching deeper into the economy as well. American Airlines warned that 25,000 employees – about 29% of its staff – could be furloughed in the fall. General Motors said it would furlough about a third of its workers, 1,250 people, from its Wentzville Assembly plant in Ohio.

Retailers have announced layoffs this week as well, including J.C. Penney, which said it would layoff an expected 1,000 people, and REI, which said it would lay off 400 people. Casinos across the country have announced layoffs of thousands of workers.

And higher-education and local governments – bastions of typically stable, middle-class jobs – appear to have begun to feel the hit that many have been warning about, with many reporting budget shortfalls.

Colleges and universities in states like New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, have begun announcing potential layoffs, furloughs and potential pay cuts as states begin paring down their budgets to match plunging tax revenue. Other institutions that rely on public funding appear to be pulling back as well, like libraries, historical societies, and public school systems.

Bunker’s research, using data from the Census Bureau, has found that the types of jobs being lost behind the unemployment figures are increasingly permanent, not just temporary layoffs from positions that were expected to bounce back.

In April, 5.5% of people who were unemployed reported permanent job losses. By June, that figure increased to 20%. In April, the top five jobs with the worst losses were those most directly impacted by the virus and shutdowns: housekeepers and cleaners, waiters, retail workers, and cashiers, he found.

But by June, those jobs had shifted to other occupations, pointing to broader economic damage: carpenters, paralegals, managers, financial analysts, and customer sales representatives.

“This is in some sense the labor market version of not seeing coronavirus case going down,” he said. “At this point you’d hope to see additions to unemployment rolls tick down as we got layoffs under control. But what we’ve seen as it stall out, is that it’s likely the kinds of layoffs have shifted and that they’re more permanent, more enduring and more spread out through the economy.”

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SRT green-lights private sector rail investment

Econ

Jul 16. 2020

By The Nation

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) today gave a green light for the private sector to jointly invest in train operations, management of commercial space in stations, and construction of the future Bangsue-Rangsit Red Line extension.

Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob said the joint investment will help the state agency save budget at a time when the government needed to fund relief measures for people hit by the impact of Covid-19.

The SRT board’s resolution will be put to the ministry and then the Cabinet for approval.

SRT board chairman Chirute Visalachitra said the partnerships would be formed on a Public-Private Partnership Net Cost basis. This means private partners will collect all revenue and share an agreed amount with the SRT.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET falls slightly amid concern over virus second wave

Econ

Jul 16. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,347.86 today (July 16), down 6.45 points or 0.48 per cent. Total transactions stood at Bt47.811 billion with an index high of 1,357.26 and a low of 1,343.02.

In the morning session, a stock analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to fluctuate between 1,345 and 1,365.

“The market gained positive sentiment from progress in Covid-19 vaccine research and the rising crude oil price,” the analyst said.

The price of crude oil rose to over US$41 per barrel after US stored crude oil dropped by 7.5 million barrels and Opec+ decided to cut production from 9.7 million barrels to 7.7 million barrels per day.

“However, the index is under pressure from uncertainty over a second wave of Covid-19 in Thailand and the increasing number of new daily cases in the US which reached 70,000 recently,” the analyst added.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were STGT, PTL, CPF, PTT, CPALL, OSP, DTAC, ADVANC, EA and GULF.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil had dropped by US$0.51 or 1.24 per cent to $40.69 per barrel, while gold dropped by $5.40 or 0.30 per cent, to $1,808.40 per ounce.

Asian indices were sliding downwards:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 22,770.36, down 175.14 points, or 0.76 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,210.10, down 151.21 points, or 4.50 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 12,996.34, down 737.79 points, or 5.37 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,970.69, down 510.89 points, or 2.00 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,183.76, down 18.12 points, or 0.82 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,157.74, down 45.11 points, or 0.37 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

BOT’s extension of reduced FIDF contribution boosts bank shares, but experts warn of decline in profits

Econ

Jul 16. 2020

By The Nation

The price of bank shares rose in response to news that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will extend the period of reduced contributions to the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) to reduce costs and boost liquidity for financial institutions so they can continue helping customers.

BOT had brought down the contribution to FIDF from 0.46 per cent to 0.23 per cent.

As of Wednesday (July 15), Bangkok Bank (BBL) shares rose by 2.35 per cent to Bt109 per share, Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) rose by 2.41 per cent to Bt74.50 per share, and Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) by 2.18 per cent.

An analyst at Capital Nomura Securities said that extending the period of reduced FIDF contributions, which was scheduled to end in 2021, will help banks reduce their costs and increase their net interest margin (NIM). However, he said, big banks will benefit more than small and medium banks because they have a higher deposit rate.

“At the end of the first quarter, BBL had the biggest deposit base at Bt2.51 trillion, followed by Krungthai Bank [KTB]’s Bt2.35 trillion, SCB’s Bt2.27 trillion and KBANK’s Bt2.2 trillion,” the analyst said.

“If BOT extends the FIDF reduction period to 2022, then the profits of seven banks, namely BBL, KTB, SCB, KBANK, TMB Bank [TMB], Kiatnakin Bank [KKP] and Tisco Financial Group [TISCO] will rise by Bt18.5 billion. Profits made by BBL, KTB and SCB will increase by approximately 13 per cent,” the analyst said.

However, Pasakorn Wangvivatchareon, a research assistant at Asia Plus Securities, disagreed, saying BOT’s move will not help boost banks’ revenue because they are having to cut interest rates for loans. Instead, he said, the FIDF reduction helps reduce debtors’ interest burden and maintains assets quality.

“We still weight investment in bank shares at lower than the market, because non-performing loans [NPLs] have not reached the highest point and the economy should recover in the first quarter of 2021,” he said.

Meanwhile, a stock analyst at Bualuang Securities said TMB’s profits will rise by 25 per cent now that it has merged its loan portfolio with Thanachart Bank, while the profits of other banks, namely Bank of Ayudhya (BAY), SCB, KBANK, TISCO, KTB, BBL and KKP, will drop due to their provision for doubtful debt and a drop in returns from investment.

“We expect banks’ profits in the second quarter of this year to be at Bt32 billion, down 38 per cent year on year, and banks’ provision for doubtful debts to be at Bt43 billion, up 20 per cent year on year but down 16 per cent quarter on quarter,” the analyst said.

“Banks’ performance in the third quarter of this year would be at Bt38 billion, up 21 per cent quarter on quarter, but down 28 per cent year on year.”

The analyst added that banks’ price to book value (P/BV) is at 0.7 times, the same as it was during the 2008 financial crisis.