Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana made the remarks in response to reports that some peoole were using the card to buy alcohollic beverages.

He, however, clarified that people who misused the card to buy alcoholic drinks were just a small group.

He said the ministry might revise the criteria for allotting the card and the products they can buy with the card to ensure they catered to the needs of the poor and the elderly.

Anusorn Tamajai, director of the school’s Economic and Business Research Centre for Reform, noted Trump’s threat on Friday to raise tariffs up to 30 per cent by September 1 on Chinese goods currently being taxed at 25 per cent.

The president’s pledge came in prompt retaliation for Beijing’s decision to increase tariffs between 5 and 10 per cent on $75 billion worth American imports, covering 5,078 items.

Washington will also increase tariffs on several other items from 10 to 15 per cent, Trump said.

Anusorn believes the latest escalation in the US-China trade war could tip the global economy into a recession due to the damage caused to trade and investment.

Thai exports would be hit hard if there were a sharp slowdown in global trade, he said, despite showing signs of improved strength last month.

“Thailand’s exports could fall more than 3 per cent since exports to China would be affected significantly,” he warned.

Excluding gold and oil products, Thai exports in dollar terms grew by 1.6 per cent in July, while exports to the US rose 9.8 per cent. Exports to the US between January and July rose sharply by 16.3 per cent.

Imports of capital goods increased 11.9 per cent and machinery by 23.9 per cent, indicating an increase in private investment. The escalating trade dispute, however, would dampen the investment outlook, Anusorn said.

Some companies have relocated plants to Thailand in order to avoid high tariff rates, Anusorn noted, but it’s chiefly been only low- or medium-level tech firms like Sharp, Besser, Western Digital and Delta Electronics moving here from China. Higher-tech firms have tended to prefer Vietnam and Malaysia, he said.

He estimates the widening trade war will cut Chinese growth by 1 percentage point and that of the US by half a percentage point.

The result could be investors around the world delaying their plans, hampering the global economy for 3-5 years, he warned.

Anusorn expects Thai tourism to fall short of projections by 200,000-300,000 visitor arrivals this year, while Chinese postpone planned purchases of condo units here, creating a domino effect afflicting the overall property sector.

Prolonged trade tensions between the US and China, the US and Europe or China and Europe involving technology could adversely affect development in that field due to rising costs and narrowed trade.

The National Economic and Social Development Council, a state think-tank, previously forecast that Thai exports would contract by 1.2 per cent this year, while the economy would expand only between 2.7 and 3.2 per cent.

The Thai economy has been largely driven by exports, so any harsh impacts would translate into slower growth, Anusorn said. The GDP in the second quarter grew only 2.3 per cent, its slowest rate in 19 quarters.

To mitigate the harm, he recommended that the government focus on productive investment and increase transparency regarding its investments, such as by making its procurement information public, thus placing a curb on corruption.

Meanwhile, Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank, said Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had indicated that rate cuts could “not always” compensate for loss of confidence stemming from Trump’s trade war.

“While monetary policy is a powerful tool to support consumer spending, business investment and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade,” the New York Times quoted Powell as saying on Friday .

Powell’s remarks suggested that the Fed, which cut interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade, remained willing to do so again to keep the economy growing, the New York Times said.

“We believe we should be able to announce some measures in September,” the minister said, adding that the aim will be to make electricity cheaper for SMEs, so they are not burdened by high production costs.

“We cannot say what kind of measure it will be, but we have an idea and it has to be discussed with PTT before we decide how to implement it,” he said.

The Energy Ministry is also working with the Finance Ministry on special measures for the low-income strata that will be implemented through the state welfare card.

Under these measures, welfare card holders will be divided into two groups: disabled people who cannot work, and people employed as taxi drivers, motorcycle taxi drivers and chauffeurs. The first group will require a subsidy on electricity, while the second group will require a reduction in energy costs, he said.

PTT Plc is currently helping the second group by reducing the price of natural gas for vehicles (NGV), he said.

Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) and Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) will become mandatory, Director-general Phichet Wiriyapaha said on Friday, noting that most large-scale retailers in China sell only products thus certified.

Other policies Phichet unveiled for next year included storing agricultural produce at the department’s 824 provincial and district offices for up to three years.

Produce standards must be upgraded to increase farmers’ bargaining power with buyers, he said, and traditional or environmentally friendly croplands and livestock ranches will be assessed for their potential as tourist attractions as part of an Industry Ministry project.

Phichet said there are 8,097 cooperatives across the country, 4,547 of which are associated with agriculture involving 6.7 million people. Nearly 1,600 cooperatives buy or guarantee the quality of 5.5 tonnes of farm products each year.

Another 55 agriculture-related cooperatives directly export products to 28 countries, generating a combined Bt1.888 billion from the sale of 45,869 tonnes annually, he said.

He added that this will affect foreign investors who will withdraw their investment in Thailand’s stock market worth about Bt4.4 billion or Bt5 billion on that date.,

Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Market has upped investment in China A-Share, and the stock market in Saudi Arabia, he said.

Following on from the downsizing, Capital Nomura Securities Plc has revised downwards the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index at the end of this year from 1,780 to 1,820 to between 1,750-1,800, he said.

“We also will propose measures to boost market prices over the long term, as well as the guaranteed price,” he said.

Jurin said the measures would include having the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand use 130,000 tonnes of palm oil to produce energy, managing palm oil stocks with a metering system, exporting oil to China and India, and tighter restrictions on smuggling.

It said on Friday that, of the 16, Hong Kong and Singapore have shown particularly weak expansions this year, with large deterioration in real GDP growth compared to the first half of 2018.

Moody’s said externally oriented economies saw a sharper slowdown during the first six months of 2019, while domestic factors have had a greater influence on growth in Japan, India and the Philippines.

Moody’s also pointed out that the weaker global economy has stunted Asian exports and the uncertain operating environment has weighed on investment.

In particular, softer capital formation has mirrored the weakening in exports, especially for trade-reliant economies such as Korea and Hong Kong.

As for the Philippines, the delay in the passing of the government budget has disrupted its infrastructure build-out, while in Malaysia and Sri Lanka, fiscal tightening has posed drags.

With India, a moderation in business sentiment and slow flow of credit to corporations have

contributed to weaker investment.

Moody’s said the slower overall GDP growth in the region had not yet weighed significantly on broader employment conditions, while generally benign inflation supports purchasing power.

Moody’s report covers Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

The seminar brought together experts and top Myanmar state officials to provide new perspectives and in-depth information related to the potential in economics, emerging business opportunities, as well as new economic development plans to create more confidence for investors.

Thai Ambassador to Myanmar Suphatra Srimaitreephithak said this seminar has been organised for the fourth time to exchange knowledge, experiences and detailed information related to trade and investment in Myanmar, as well as to offer investors a chance to engage with those directing the policies of the country. She said it also aimed to update investors on current consumer behaviour trends.

Also present at the seminar was adviser to Thailand’s Foreign Ministry, Chaisri Anaman, who presided over the opening ceremony, while a special keynote address on “Investment Opportunities in Myanmar for Thai Investors” was delivered by Thaung Tun, Myanmar’s Union Minister for the Office of the Union Government and Investment and Foreign Economic Relations Ministry.

The event also included a special discussion on “Doing Business Responsibly” led by Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi, former secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and former director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Also on the agenda were Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan, as well as the Project Bank Development Plan for Myanmar, Investment Opportunities in Electricity and Energy, updates on information on new laws that are offering retail and wholesale opportunities for foreign companies, and opportunities and methods in expanding bases of production into Myanmar.

The World Bank’s Doing Business 2019 ranking – which takes into consideration the ease of starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit for businesses, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency – has placed Myanmar at 171 out of 190 countries. However, Myanmar aims to make it to the top 100 by 2020-2021 and to the top 40 by 2035-2036.

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), the Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) approved investment worth US$2.49 trillion (Bt76.5 trillion) from October 2018 to May 2019. Singapore, meanwhile, leads the pack with $1.6 trillion in foreign investments already in place, followed by China and Hong Kong. Thailand comes in fourth with a value of $118.63 million.

The industries that foreign investors have given most priority to in Myanmar during the first half of this year are commerce and communications, manufacturing, energy, hotel and tourism, and real estate.

Sorasak Keeratichokechaikul, president of the Thai Business Association of Myanmar (TBAM) added that the association has received support from the Thai embassy, as well as from prominent Thai banks and businesses that have invested in Myanmar in organising this year’s “Myanmar Insight”. Last year, over 600 Thai business operators joined the event from a variety of industries. TBAM reaffirmed its readiness to support and advise any Thai business interested in investing in Myanmar.

The value of Thailand-Myanmar trade in the first five months of this year stands at $3.2 trillion, marking an increase of 12.43 per cent from the same period last year. Thai exports to Myanmar were worth $188.32 billion, while imports stood at $1.3 trillion. Thailand’s exports include fuel, beverages, metal and metal products, chemicals, machinery, cars, and rice, to name a few. Products that Thailand imports includes natural gas, metal ores, animal meat for consumption, plant products and fruit.

Myanmar has great potential and capacity for business and investment since it is strategically positioned between the two large markets of China and India. Myanmar also benefits from having a large working-age population. Its strategic position as a regional and inter-regional hub is further strengthened by its inclusion in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Thailand and Myanmar are Natural Strategic Partners, especially with the Thai government’s policies supporting business and investment in Myanmar, all with the shared goal of creating sustainable development for the future.

The Commerce Ministry has signed deals with THAI Smile, Bangkok Airways, Nok Air and AirAsia by which the airlines will carry fruit for free for the first time or carry heavier loads than previously permitted.

Bangkok Airways doubled its existing allowance to 40 kilograms per passenger, AirAsia now carries up to 20kg for the first time, and THAI Smile’s Smile Plus aircraft class will take 50kg, up from 20, and Smile aircraft 40kg, also up from 20.

Nok’s Light class is allowing 10kg of fruit for the first time, and Nok Extra and Nok Max 40kg, hiked from 20.

The weight allowances are for the fruit only and do not apply to passengers’ other belongings.

The ministry has made shipping boxes available for free at almost 30 Thai airports.

The fruit being shipped are mangosteens, rambutans and longkong.

The Cabinet approved the stimulus packages at a meeting on Tuesday, while the National Rice Policy Committee on Wednesday approved a budget of Bt21 billion to guarantee the price of rice harvested in 2019 and 2020.

The deputy prime minister said the movement of interest rates is no more an indicator of the investment trend but it is the people’s confidence that will indicate the level of investment.

Somkid recently held a meeting involving the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and the Finance Ministry to discuss a plan to set up a joint committee to steer the economy.

In a related matter, Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its 2019 GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 3.0 per cent from 3.3 per cent. The bank expects growth in the second half to improve from a weak 2.6 per cent in the first half.

The bank said coordinated policy easing in the form of BoT interest rate cuts and a soon-to-be-implemented fiscal stimulus package should support growth from late in the third quarter and strengthen exports and tourism.

Stimulus measures implemented in the past have proved effective in shoring up the economy.

According to the National Economic and Social Development Council, the country’s GDP expanded 2.3 per cent in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter’s growth of 2.8 per cent.

Fiscal stimuli won’t drive up debt, official insists

Jindarat Viriyataveekul, director of the Public Debt Management Office’s policy and planning bureau, said on Thursday there is no need for concern over the government’s economic stimulus packages boosting public debt.

Jindarat put the debt level as of this month at 41.45 per cent of GDP, much lower than the debt-to-GDP ratio ceiling of 60 per cent set out in the Finance Ministry’s policy framework on fiscal sustainability.

The debt level in the next five years is expected to be 46.73 per cent, while the GDP next year is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent, then 3.6 per cent in 2021, 3.8 per cent in 2022 and 4 per cent in 2023.

The budget deficit is forecast at Bt500 billion per year, peaking at Bt570 billion in 2022.

The country also enjoys low risk in borrowing, she noted. Of total debt, 90 per cent is long-term and 97 per cent is baht-nominated.