The junta seized power in 2014, vowing to rescue the country from a treadmill of coups, short-lived civilian governments, and protests. But the kingdom goes to the polls on March 24 as divided as ever.

The arch-royalist army has no intention of leaving politics and has scripted a constitution that gifts it a foothold in power for a generation.

Standing in its way are supporters of its nemesis, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who has dominated Thai politics since his first election win in 2001.

He was toppled by an earlier coup in 2006, but his affiliated Pheu Thai party taps a deep seam of loyalty from the poor but populous rural north and northeast.

Thousands of rice farmers gathered in a school yard earlier this week for a Pheu Thai rally in rural Chaiyaphum, applauding promises of better times ahead under an elected government and whistling disapproval at every mention of the junta.

“We still love Thaksin… we want him to come back,” 65-year-old Lamoon Moosorping told AFP.

Shinawatra-allied parties hope to win a comfortable majority of the 500 elected seats up for grabs across a country wearied by junta rule.

But Sunday’s vote is the first under new rules that mean winning the popular vote does not automatically translate into leading a government, or choosing the next prime minister.

Instead, 250 junta-appointed senators are poised to play a key role in shaping the next administration.

With the senate onside, the junta-linked party needs just 126 elected seats to secure a parliamentary majority — setting up a potential collision over a denied mandate.

“Forming a government and governing will be different,” warns Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientists at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

“We will probably see some kind of deadlock… that will lead to some kind of constitutional crisis.”

Pheu Thai party prime ministerial candidate Sudarat Keyuraphan (2nd R) speaks while Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit (L), New Economic Party leader Mingkwan Saengsuwan (2nd L) and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva listen during a live televised debate for candidates in Bangkok on March 20, 2019, ahead of the March 24 general election. /AFP

– Heart over head –

With days to go, election fever has gripped much of a country starved for nearly five years of political expression.

Advance voting last Sunday saw a near 90 percent turnout, while acerbic commentary, memes and satirical swipes are pinballing across social media.

More than seven million millennials are eligible to vote for the first time, most unencumbered by old political loyalties — injecting uncertainty into the outcome.

Sunday’s poll will essentially be a “vote on the military” said Thailand expert and historian Chris Baker.

With much of the country viscerally opposed either to the junta or to Thaksin, the ballot will be “more emotional than rational,” he added.

The junta’s affiliated party Phalang Pracharart is hoping an unspectacular campaign does not translate into a humiliation at the polls.

Its figurehead, army chief-turned-premier Prayut Chan-O-Cha has undergone a last-ditch Instagram makeover in a bid to strike a softer pose and return as a civilian premier, a cause aided by senators whose jobs will be owed to him.

– Rivals old and new –

There are 68 candidates running for prime minister, a collage of seasoned politicians, newcomers and political chameleons like Anutin Charnvirakul, whose Bumjaithai party is heavily tipped for a major post-election role.

But among Prayut’s many rivals, it is 40-year-old billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit who has tapped into the aspirations of millennials who are tired of the polarisation and inequality under the conservative junta.

Articulate and telegenic, Thanathorn blames the junta for bending the economy to big business, straitjacketing Thai democracy and plunging the kingdom into an outmoded authoritarianism.

He is unlikely to emerge as premier, but analysts are keenly watching his fortunes for signs of the emergence of a new political force.

“We need change, Thanathorn is a light to take us away from all this darkness,” said Panitaluck Manokhan, 30, at recent campaign stop.

But it is a familiar face who looms largest over the election — Thaksin Shinawatra.

The ex-cop turned billionaire telecoms mogul, has been in self-exile since 2008 to avoid a jail term on corruption charges.

He still sits at the heart of Thailand’s political breakdown — despised by the army and its Bangkok elite allies but adored by the rural poor for farm subsidies and welfare schemes.

Yet a decade after he left Thailand, fortune is not on his side.

Earlier this month the dissolution of one of his parties — Thai Raksa Chart — left the Shinawatra faction winded.

The party had proposed Princess Ubolratana as its candidate for premier, but the Thai monarchy is nominally above the political fray and King Maha Vajiralongkorn struck down the move to draft in his elder sister.

The miscalculation took out a key pillar in the Shinawatra election strategy, leaving it with its other party Pheu Thai running in just 250 of a possible 350 constituencies.

Calling for voters to upset the odds with a “landslide victory”, Pheu Thai figurehead Sudarat Keyuraphan has appealed to anti-junta sentiment.

“You have to ask yourselves… can you live like this for another five years?” she asked at a rally this week.

The 68 candidates for prime minister in Thailand’s upcoming election on March 24 have diverse platforms and backgrounds. But analysts believe these figures have the best chance of winning.

– Prayut Chan-O-Cha –

From stern coup leader to prime ministerial candidate mugging for the camera, Prayut has rebranded himself as a man-of-the-people in the run-up to the election.

    Nicknamed “Tu”, Prayut has an Instagram account with photos of him cooking and riding a train with smiling children. He has also penned saccharine ballads about democracy including one called “New Day”.

But the 65-year-old former army chief led the 2014 coup that toppled the administration of Yingluck Shinawatra after violent protests.

Now standing for the Phalang Pracharat party, the grumpy general is popular with arch-royalists and a Bangkok-based elite, using the years since the coup to create an unelected Upper House that could tip the scales his way when parliament votes for prime minister.

– Sudarat Keyuraphan –

Sudarat is the top candidate for Pheu Thai, the political juggernaut linked to self-exiled premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck, who was ousted in the 2014 coup.

The 57-year-old helped found the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai (“Thais love Thais”) party alongside billionaire Thaksin and served in his cabinet after his 2001 and 2005 election wins.

But when Thaksin was toppled in 2006, Sudarat was banned from politics for five years. She later raised money to support restoration work at Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha in Nepal.

Each party can nominate up to three candidates. Pheu Thai’s second choice, Chadchart Sittipunt, is a former transport minister who secured internet fame five years ago with a viral photo showing him in workout gear, inspiring memes referring to him as the “strongest man on earth”.

But neither candidate has the star charisma and draw of the Shinawatra duo.

– Anutin Charnvirakul –

The fantastically wealthy son of a construction tycoon, Anutin is a fixture of the political scene and a former official under Thaksin.

Analysts say his Bhumjaithai Party, which is popular in the northeast and finished third in the last vote in 2011, could leverage its appeal as a coalition partner in the next government.

Anutin, 52, shook up the political scene this year when his party put up street banners featuring marijuana leaves, touting the plant’s economic benefits for farmers after Thailand legalised cannabis for medical use last year. He has said Thailand has the “best strain” of marijuana.

The hobbyist pilot graduated from a US university with an engineering degree.

– Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit –

Photogenic, active on social media, and a lover of extreme sports, 40-year-old Thanathorn portrays himself as a new choice bridging Thailand’s old political divides.

His political rallies have been muted affairs but the Future Forward Party candidate has cultivated a rockstar appeal among millennials, drawing crowds of adoring, youthful fans who jostle for selfies and call him “Daddy”.

The wealthy scion of an auto parts empire, Thanathorn has said that though he comes from the top one percent, he is standing up for the 99 percent.

Founded last year, Future Forward could capitalise on the more than seven million first-time eligible voters aged 18-25.

– Abhisit Vejjajiva –

British-born, Oxford-educated and fervent Newcastle United fan Abhisit is head of the Democrat Party, which draws support from Bangkok and parts of the south.

The polished 54-year-old was appointed premier in 2008 via a parliamentary vote but struggled for legitimacy. His short-lived administration was tarred by a violent crackdown in 2010 that left some 99 dead, mostly protesters — the worst civil unrest in decades.

Abhisit came under criticism for failing to denounce the junta that took power in 2014. But in a more recent interview he said he would not support Prayut for prime minister and that his party “aims to be the core of the next government”.

Nation TV yesterday was in the hot seat after the audio clip was aired on one of its most popular news programmes, hosted by its star anchor Kanok Ratwongsakul.

The clip featured an alleged conversation between the two politicians discussing post-election prospects. Netizens criticised the station, saying it had shown itself to be politically compromised by reporting “fake news” that favoured the pro-junta bloc.

Most social media comments characterised the audio clip as “obviously fake” – composed of a voice collage of the two politicians speaking to different audiences on different occasions. ‘Stooping low’ Thanathorn, in a telephone interview with another news programme on Nation TV yesterday, said he did not think “good” media outlets would broadcast such a clip.

“Nation broadcasting the clip just shows how [you’re] stooping so low,” he said. “It’s a shame [you] aired it.” The anchor of another Nation TV show asked whether he had ever spoken with Thaksin.

Thanathorn said, “I’ve talked about this so many times. I think a good media [outlet] should not make it my burden – as the accused here – to prove it. Good media would actually apologise to me. Show responsibility to me and to the people receiving this [false] news.”

A Thai-language hashtag that can be translated as “NationBusted” circulated online all day yesterday along with criticism of the media giant and its conservative anchor, Kanok.

A station executive, however, stood firm about broadcasting the clip, claiming it was done in accordance with media ethics. He challenged Thanathorn to take legal action if he believed Nation TV had crossed the line. Nation TV managing director Chatchai Pokogwai said the station was only doing its job, reporting what was happening and then offering Thanathorn a chance to give his side of the story. But the politician merely took the opportunity to reprimand the station harshly, he said.

“If Thanathorn thinks our report has caused him damage, he can pursue a case against us,” Chatchai said. “I’m ready to take legal action against him as well.”

Though some political parties have included human-rights protection and policies for advancement of social justice in their election campaign, they will encounter obstacles, said academics and top human rights campaigners. They said that even if these champions of human rights wer to get elected and successfully form a new government, they would find the administrative structure created by the NCPO blocking any real implementation of their policies.

Assoc Professor Gothom Arya of Mahidol University’s Institute of Human Rights and Peace Studies said Thailand still has a long way to go for its human rights and social justice standards. Even though the country will soon have a democratically elected administration, the situation related to human rights protection and social justice is unlikely to improve much.

“From my observation of election campaigns, human rights and social justice promotion are not really incorporated into mainstream political debate yet, as most political parties are still fighting to win public approval by using populist economic policies,” he noted.

“This relatively weak political will on human rights and social justice in mainstream politics is a product of a conservative patronage culture and it will not provide a supportive atmosphere for the promotion of human rights.”

He said that though there were some new progressive political parties actively promoting human-rights protection in their campaigns, he predicted they will encounter difficulties in implementing these policies.

He explained that this was because the junta has laid down many blocks in the country’s administrative structure that will allow them to continue to have an influence over the future administration and force the new government to stay on the NCPO’s preferred path.

“One of the most prominent mechanisms that will force the new government to continue the governing style of the NCPO is the national strategy. The new government is obligated to follow the 20-year national strategy, drafted by NCPO-appointed panels,” he said.

“The new government will also be heavily influenced by the group of senators directly selected by the junta. So, whatever plan the new government has for improving human- rights protection and social justice is unlikely to be pushed forward smoothly.”

Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher on Thailand for Human Rights Watch, said it was not about how good the human-rights promotion policies were, but the administrative structure that would allow the junta to keep a hold on power and allow them to violate human rights even after the election. This will deter the situation of human rights and social justice in Thailand for years to come.

“The current Constitution, which was drafted by an NCPO-appointed committee, will enable every NCPO order to be effective even after we have a newly elected government and allow many oppressive and harmful orders to continue violating the rights of the people,” Sunai said.

“The only way we can avoid this unfortunate future is to let the political parties join forces and overthrow all the legacies of the NCPO, so we can really have a fresh start for the country’s advancement towards a just and free society.”

Thais goes to the polls on March 24, in the first election since the 2014 coup that installed the generals in power.

But it will be held under new rules established by a junta that has made clear it has no intention of leaving the political stage.

Scores of dissidents, academics and “Red Shirt” activists have been pushed into self-exile during the junta years, in what analysts say is one of the biggest political flights in Thailand’s recent history.

    Some found sanctuary in the West, but the majority fled to neighbouring countries to avoid charges and jail terms.

“I couldn’t bear living under an unjust power anymore,” said Thantawut Twewarodomgul, an activist who had previously served a jail sentence for royal defamation. He left Thailand for Laos in the wake of the coup.

In Laos, some launched digital radio stations to keep up their opposition to the generals and — in some cases — the kingdom’s unassailable monarchy.

– ‘Shocked and scared’ –

But rights groups say their continued activism may have jeopardised their lives.

Three firebrand radio hosts have been reported missing in Laos since the coup, according to Human Rights Watch.

Late last year the corpses of two aides of radio host Surachai Danwattananusorn washed ashore on the Thai-Laos border.

Their disemboweled bodies were stuffed with concrete blocks and their faces battered beyond recognition.

The men lived with Surachai, 77, who had fled to Laos in June 2014 soon after the coup, and hasn’t been seen since mid-December.

His wife Pranee, who remains in Thailand, fears the lifelong activist — who spent nearly three years in jail in Thailand after being sentenced under royal insult laws — is dead.

“In a democracy, people should be able to criticise public figures,” Pranee told AFP.

This photo taken on March 12, 2019 shows Pranee Danwattananusorn speaking to an audience about her missing husband, Thai activist Surachai Danwattananusorn, during a human rights forum at the Netherlands Embassy in Bangkok

The grim case has injected fear into the exiled community.

“We are shocked and scared. We are looking to leave Laos,” another exile involved with the anti-junta radio, who declined to be named for their safety, told AFP.

 – Activists at risk –

After four years smothering political debate, the junta lifted some of its bans on political activity weeks before announcing elections.

But there is little trust its repressive reflexes have dulled.

Pro-democracy campaigner Nuttaa Mahattana, 39, said she was slapped with “sedition” charges for anti-junta stunts.

“Very few voices have risen in the kingdom against the junta. Someone had to do it,” Nuttaa said.

She is among thousands of activists facing prosecution in Thailand — rights groups say nearly 2,000 have gone to trial in military courts.

These lawsuits are “a reminder of the perils of speaking out,” said Tyrell Haberkorn, a researcher on Thai state violence from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Prosecutions under a royal defamation law — referred to as “112” after its criminal code — spiked early in the junta rule, with record sentences meted out.

It has been upheld as a necessity to protect the monarchy but rights groups decry it as a tool against dissent.

There were no fresh charges in 2018 — two years after Thailand’s new King Maha Vajiralongkorn ascended the throne — and the halt in cases could signal the palace’s shifting attitude regarding 112’s use, said a senior police source.

But Haberkorn remains unconvinced the law, which she said was used to “create a climate of fear”, is in retreat.

“It will not disappear with elections.”

 – From streets to online –

Thailand’s northeast is the heartland of supporters loyal to the powerful Shinawatra clan, and serves as the home to the “Red Shirts” — a grassroots pro-democracy movement made up of farmers and the urban working-class.

One of the junta’s first moves was to head off any possible Red Shirt resistance, and its leaders have been “summoned, visited and surveilled”, a former leader told AFP, requesting anonymity.

“We just don’t have the power” to mobilise anymore, he said.

With the streets off-limits to protest for several years, anti-junta sentiment has spilled online, with memes, videos and raps against the military going viral.

But freedom on the web is not a sure bet.

The draconian Computer Crime Act, revised by the junta, has been wielded against online critics.

The junta-picked parliament also passed a cybersecurity bill, allowing authorities to seize devices without court orders when confronted with perceived “critical” threats.

While critics have likened the bill, which allows officials to ask internet providers and users for personal information, to a “Big Brother” mandate, junta spokesman Werachon Sukondhapatipak told AFP it is necessary to “protect citizens against cyber crimes and fraud”.

But the prospect of the new law in the hands of a junta eyeing a return to power in civilian clothing has left many queasy.

“If the junta-allied party forms the new government, they will retain the same measures,” said Yingcheep Atchanont of monitoring group iLaw.

The high turnout seen for advance voting on Sunday not only posed challenges to the Election Commission, exposing its inadequacies, but is also worrying for small and medium-sized parties, as it signals they will need more votes to get seats from the proportional party list.

Attasit Pankaew, a political scientist at Thammasat University, sees the possibility of voter turnout hitting 80 per cent on March 24, well above the 70 to 75 per cent turnout seen in 2010.

The high turnout for advance voting might have been due to more people being determined to exercise their rights because of the difficult registration process for this year’s vote. It is also possible that the trend will continue for the final leg of the election next week, he said.

“People are possibly more alert and conscious of the election because of all the news,” the analyst said. “And they are more determined and will not easily back down because they have learned about the possible difficulties beforehand. So, they are unlikely to be deterred by long queues and crowds.

“This is in addition to the fact that we have not had an election in so many years.”

If the voter turnout on Sunday exceeds 80 per cent, Attasit predicted that smaller parties would find it hard to gain seats. Until now, the calculation was that 70,000 votes could get them one seat, but that number may change with the higher turnout, he added.

“If more people vote, [these parties] may need 80,000 or even close to 100,000 [votes] to gain a [party-list] seat in the Lower House,” he said. “Bigger parties may not be affected because they would have already won seats in constituencies.”

Nikorn Chamnong, director of Chartthaipattana Party, however, believes that 70,000 votes per seat are the maximum votes required for a seat. He said he did not think the required number could be higher despite the higher turnout.

However, the added concern for smaller parties is how people will vote. If a huge of number of votes go to one particular bloc, it would have a significant weightage in post-election politics, he said.

“So, the entire House, big and small parties, will have to listen to the voice of the people,” he said. “There’ll be much pressure in politics.”

Regarding reports of incorrect ballots being handed to voters on March 17, scholar Attasit said the mistake could have occurred at local polling stations. The EC should learn from this and consider setting up a hotline with [local stations] so that they can reach the higher authorities in the event of any confusion, he said.

The EC said yesterday that nearly 87 per cent of voters who had registered for advance voting had turned out.

Several areas saw more than 90 per cent of registered voters exercising their suffrage, EC president Ittiporn Boonpracong told a press briefing yesterday.

Polling stations opened and closed at the official times – 8am and 5pm – except for Bang Kapi district, which saw a deluge of voters. The closing time for entering the voting centre had to be delayed by an hour due to the long queues outside. Bang Kapi had the highest number of people registering for early voting in Bangkok.

Amid criticism and questions about the conduct and transparency of the early voting, the EC president yesterday clarified that the authority had found only three cases of electoral laws being violated.

There were reports of several cases of people being given the wrong ballots. Netizens had posted that when they drew the attention of station officials to the mistake, they were told to use the incorrect ballot.

Ittiporn yesterday admitted that such errors had occurred. There was nothing that could be done about it except to report the incident, he insisted. If the voters had raised the issue before doing anything with the ballot paper, the EC president said the authority could have given them the correct ballot, he said.

The other two irregularities occurred in three provinces, he said. In Samut Songkhram, one whole ballot-paper book had been marked for an unidentified candidate. When the authority learned about it, the book was destroyed, he said, but he refused to reveal which party the candidate was affiliated with.

He defended changes in polling station locations in response to complaints that no notice, or only short notice, was given of the change.

Deputy PM Wissanu Krea-ngam said yesterday that all the errors and mistakes were understandable, given that this was the first election in a long time.

Hong Kong artist Danny Yung has figures representing 10 of the political parties among his sculptures on view at the Bangkok Art and Culture Centre until April 12. Begging for votes here are from left, Thai Local Power, Mahachon and The Commoner. Photo courtesy of BACC

Only 12 of the 81 political parties contesting this weekend’s election have found room for views on culture among their populist policies and promises to fix the economy and environment.

And of the dozen who have, the ideas being put forward are drawing yawns from the arts community. There, the hopes were for broad national strategies to foster a domestic creative industry that would be the envy of the world.

Yukti Mukdawijitra, an anthropologist at Thammasat University, and Thanom Chapakdee, an art lecturer at Srinakharinwirot Prasarnmitr University, are among those disappointed by the small scale of the proposals on offer.

“The policies based on ideology would be difficult to implement,” Thanom told The Nation. “Some parties propose to build a lot of local museums, but they don’t talk about their sustainable management, professional staffing or long-term funding.”

Parties including Future Forward, the Action Coalition for Thailand, Thai Local Power and Phungluang are advocating a “creative economy” and cultural tourism.

The Chart Pattana Party has suggested a “One Tambon – One Tourist Attraction” fund that would give every district Bt2 million to establish and promote something local that would be interesting to outsiders. It also wants to make Thailand the creative-economy hub of Asia.

The Phalang Pracharat Party pledges to promote innovation by having one million creative people dream up ideas within five years and thus hoist the capital to “Bangkok 5.0” stature, with nine innovation zones sharing 5G technology. The Democrat Party vows to establish a “hi-touch” economy, make Thailand a |hub for watching movies, bring in more |big-spender tourists and upgrade |Bangkok’s main tourist attractions.

The Pheu Thai Party wants to goose up the economy by upgrading street-food outlets and quality and waiving visa requirements for Chinese tourists. It says the target should be 50 million tourists a year from around the globe, generating Bt3 trillion annually. The party is also wooing first-time voters with a vow to make Thailand a hub for e-sports.

Gridthiya Gaweewong, director of the Jim Thompson Art Centre, lamented that none of the parties appears to be serious about arts and culture.

“We’ve seen many countries in this region try for creative economics and the like and they failed terribly,” she said. “We have to focus on supporting and developing the arts and gearing up for excellence rather than seeing the arts as only tools to boost economy. When you do that, art becomes propaganda. “If the candidates see culture as an integral part of the national development, they should make the Culture Ministry a Grade-A ministry with a bigger budget to support the arts and culture as forms of soft power.”

Gridthiya said state agencies should be taking care of existing heritage and local cultural infrastructure, promoting private and public museums and contemporary-art spaces, protecting freedom of expression and assisting projects through tax subsidies.

What’s needed, she said, are policies that take into account the past, present and future.

“That means they should recognise our cultural heritage, both tangible and intangible, for preservation.”

The government should support the present by promoting traditional, modern and contemporary art at every level – local, regional and international, she said. “And they should look forward to the future and invest in incubating the younger generation and in research and development, encouraged through grants and funding.”

The Commoner and Mahachon parties are interested in tapping Thailand’s cultural diversity. The Future Forward Party promises to de-legalise all limits on freedom of expression and to build more local museums.

“I agree with using our cultural diversity,” Gridthiya said. “We should be proud of our multi-ethnic culture that has been part of Thailand for centuries. This country is extremely diverse and we should accentuate that.”

Pawit Mahasarinand, director of the Bangkok Art and Culture Centre, pointed out that culture relates directly to every other aspect of society – education, the economy, politics, tourism, foreign affairs and even science and technology.

“So the Culture Ministry needs to look for opportunities to work with other ministries to make better use of its limited budget and to make sure people can see the connections,” he said.

“And in a land where the post-modern lives happily alongside the traditional, inclusivity should be the keyword in cultural management, to make sure diversity is always promoted.”