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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012077

The Thai automotive industry expects to manufacture 1.8 million vehicles this year, one million for export, as market demand continues to improve.

Auto production grew 18 per cent in 2021 from a year earlier, to 1,685,706 vehicles, the Federation of Thai Industries reports. Exports grew 30 per cent to Bt561.14 million.

December saw exports rise to a nine-month high of 101,307 vehicles, up 2.5 per cent from November and 48 per cent from the same period a year earlier.

The FDI said the vehicle exports to Australia and Oceania rose by 102 per cent, to Europe by 65 per cent and to Central and South America by 122 per cent.

It forecast the situation will continue to improve in 2022, with Thailand producing 1 million vehicles for the overseas market and 800,000 for domestic sale.

Noriaki Yamashita, president of Toyota Motor Thailand, said the Covid-19 crisis would continue to impact on the Thai economy, but the auto industry would improve gradually in line with overall economic conditions.

He forecast domestic sales of 860,000 new vehicles this year, up 13.3 per cent on 2021.

He said Toyota Motor Thailand aimed to export 371,000 vehicles this year, up 27.2 per cent from last year. It plans to increase production by 25.9 per cent to 647,000 vehicles this year.

Published : February 08, 2022

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012072

The number of long-term unemployed people or those without a job for more than a year has risen sharply since the arrival of Covid-19 in January 2020, the National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSOT) announced on Tuesday.

NSOT director Piyanuch Wutthisorn said the long-term unemployed group expanded to 118,000 people in the last quarter of last year compared to 35,000 in the same period of 2020.

Most of those in the long-term unemployment group are between the ages of 15 and 30, Piyanuch said, adding that the numbers in the fourth quarter of 2021 improved slightly from the previous quarter. For instance, she said, the situation for 15- to 24-year-olds improved from 8.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2021 to 7.2 per cent unemployed in the fourth quarter.

She added that the number of “semi-unemployed” in the fourth quarter of 2021 rose to 2.61 million from 2.56 million from the previous quarter. The semi-unemployed are those that work no more than 20 hours a week in the agricultural sector and no more than 24 hours per week in non-agricultural sectors.

However, Piyanuch said, this semi-unemployed group may lose their hours or become completely unemployed soon.

She said the employment situation improved in the last quarter of 2021 because the government eased Covid-19 restrictions and more workers returned to the service, trade and manufacturing sectors. The employment rate in the last quarter of 2021 stood at 6.63 per cent with most of the jobs based in service and trade sectors, she said.

Published : February 08, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012063

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fluctuate between 1,670 and 1,685 points on Tuesday, Krungsri Securities said.

It said the index gained positive sentiment from mass buy-ups of company shares that are expected to grow based on their business turnover last year, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration’s move to ease disease prevention measures this week and rising oil prices.

“However, the index will be under pressure due to uncertainty over the US Consumer Price Index [CPI] in January which is expected to rise by 7.3 per cent year on year and could trigger the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate sooner,” Krungsri Securities said.

“The January CPI will be announced on February 10,” it added.

It recommends the purchase of the following as an investment strategy:

• BBL, KBANK, KTB, BLA and THREL will benefit from news of the US interest rate hike.

• PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, SPRC and BCP will benefit from the rising price of oil and gross refining margin.

• IVL, TOP, SPRC, GULF, BANPU, TU, CPF, SPALI, ORI, WHA, AMATA, HMPRO, CPN, CRC, BLA, JMT, SINGER, JMART, WICE, NER, ITEL, XO, ASK, UBE, FORTH, TH and SNNP are expected to grow based on their business turnover last year.

The SET Index closed at 1,677.24 on Monday, up 3.02 points or 0.18 per cent. Transactions totalled 76 billion baht with an index high of 1,681.17 and a low of 1,667,29.

Published : February 08, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012062

The baht opened at 32.97 to the US dollar on Tuesday, strengthening from Monday’s closing of 33.03.

The Thai currency is likely to move between 32.90 and 33.05 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.

He said the baht is likely to swing sideways because investors are in a risk-off state before the US inflation information from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released, which will make the dollar stronger or swing sideways.

However, the baht found support after the gold price surged and reached its key resistance level at 1,820 dollars per ounce.

Poon said the baht will not strengthen much because importers are waiting to sell the dollar when it hits 32.80 to 32.90, while foreign investors are also waiting to sell the baht.

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Published : February 08, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012048

The price of palm oil has gone down even further as local producers are slowing down their purchases of crude at the current Crude Palm Oil (CPO) rate, a report in Thai business daily Thansettakij, said.

The rate has now dropped to Bt8 per kilogram from Bt12 because of the CPO rate of Bt63, while the price of palm fruit remains in the range of Bt10 to Bt12 per kilogram.

Bottled palm oil will be priced high at Bt78 if all refiners agree to purchase the crude at the current CPO rate of Bt63.

The price of palm fruit in major plantation areas in Krabi, Chumphon, Surat Thani, and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces has dropped to Bt7.90 to Bt8.60 per kilogram, from Bt10-Bt12 per kilogram, as a result of slower demand. The price drop is a fallout of producers of bottled palm oil slowing down their purchases at the Bt63 per kg CPO rate when the price of palm fruit was on the slide.

One of the factors reportedly contributing to a high CPO rate is the government’s decision to abort the production of a number of biodiesel fuel formulas for vehicles, which has resulted in a sharp drop in demand for crude palm oil, Thansettakij reported.

From February 5 to March 15, only the B5 formula will be produced, down from three formulas.

The decision by the Energy Policy and Planning Office under the Ministry of Energy to produce only B5 is intended to keep the price of diesel petrol, which is a staple for low transport cost — at lower than Bt30 per litre, the business paper said.

Published : February 07, 2022

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https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/40012044

The Ministry of Energy has a rejected a request from the Land Transport Federation of Thailand to reduce diesel price to 25 baht per litre.

Kulit Sombatsiri, the ministry’s permanent secretary, said that efforts were being made to ensure the price of diesel fuel does not exceed 30 baht per litre. 
An amount of 3.79 baht per litre is already being drawn from the Oil Fund, totalling around 7 billion baht per month, to subsidise the costs, he said.

If they want the price to be reduced from the actual diesel price of around 34 baht per litre to 25 baht per litre, there would be a difference of around 9 baht per litre, which will push up the subsidy cost to approximately 17 billion baht per month, he explained.

The Ministry of Energy cannot find any source of funding to support such a steep subsidy because funds have to be allocated to help other groups that are equally affected, he said.

“So I seek for your cooperation and would like to freeze the price of diesel fuel at 30 baht per litre,” said Kulit.

He said energy costs were going up as world crude oil price was about $90 a barrel at this time. If the price hits $100 a barrel, especially with an unresolved conflict between Ukraine and Russia, discussions will have to be held with the Ministry of Finance. But it is too early to talk about it now, he said.

Published : February 07, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/40012046

The price of cooking gas (LPG) will jump after March 31 when the government freeze expires, the Energy Ministry said on Monday.

Ministry permanent secretary Kulit Sombatsiri said the price of a 15-kilogram cylinder would be allowed to rise gradually from the current 318 baht to 333 baht and then 363 baht.

He added that low-income households would receive extra LPG subsidy via the state welfare card, with payments raised from 45 baht every three months to 100 baht. About 13.5 million households are registered for this scheme.

The Finance Ministry will fund 45 baht of the payment, with the remaining 55 baht sourced elsewhere.

The ministry is unlikely to provide subsidies for LPG use in vehicles.

Kulit said that every 1 baht increase in the LPG price would reduce the burden on the Oil Fund by about 9 million baht per day, or about 270-280 million baht per month.

The Committee on Energy Policy Administration has frozen the cooking gas price for the past two years to help people affected by Covid-19. Subsidising the price freeze has cost 23.56 billion baht.

Published : February 07, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012045

The Public Debt Management Office reported on Monday that as of December 30, 2021, Thailand’s public debt stood at 9.644 trillion baht or 59.57 per cent of the country’s GDP.

The office reported on its website that public debt had risen by 20 billion baht in December compared to November, though the public debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 59.58 per cent to 59.57 per cent against the previous month. Thailand’s GDP expanded after the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, the office said.

Meanwhile, in the first three months of the 2022 fiscal year (October-December 2021) the government borrowed 5.874 trillion baht to service its public debt.

The office said the government had borrowed 873.17 billion baht under the 2020 Covid-19 situation decree that set the loan ceiling at 1 trillion baht for economic rehabilitation measures.

The government borrowed another 273.17 billion baht under the 2021 Covid-19 situation decree that set a loan ceiling of 500 billion baht within 2022.

The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, resolved in September last year to raise the public debt-to-GDP ratio from 60 per cent to 70 per cent.

At the end of the 2021 fiscal year (September 30), the Cabinet was informed that Thailand’s public debt stood at 9.34 trillion baht.

Published : February 07, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40012025

The Thai economy is likely to be severely affected by the ongoing tensions between Nato and Russia, Thai economists said on Monday.

US President Joe Biden has sent a signal to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to accept Ukraine as a new member and the US has deployed over 3,000 troops in Poland and Germany.

Although the confrontation in eastern Europe is unlikely to develop into a full-scale war between Nato and Russia, the ongoing tension does not bode well for the global economy, which is still recovering from the impact of Covid-19, according to senior Thai economists.

Assoc Prof Dr Somchai Pakapatwiwat warned that if Russian President Vladimir Putin went ahead with his threat of strong retaliation in the event of Ukraine joining the Nato alliance, the global economy would be severely affected.

He said if Russia invaded Ukraine, as it has threatened it would, the United States and Nato nations would slap an economic boycott on Russia, causing a chain reaction in the global economy, pulling Thailand down as well, pointing to Thailand’s financial and trade ties with Russia.

The club of economic analysts of the Thai Bankers’ Association said Thailand’s economy could be affected in either of two scenarios.

In the first scenario, Russia invades Ukraine and retaliates against Nato member states by cutting off its gas supply to Europe — 46 per cent of European gas needs are imported from Russia.

Such a situation would lead to a spike in the prices of natural gas, coal and oil both in Europe and globally. Many businesses in Europe would have to close because of lack of energy.

The club also sees the prices of precious minerals, such as palladium, platinum, aluminium, copper, nickel and iron rising sharply in that scenario.

The club said the Thai economy would be affected by rising oil prices, that would add financial burden to the fund to control diesel oil price. Thai businesses that have to import goods which require precious minerals would see costs shoot up.

Thailand imports Bt152 billion worth of goods that use precious minerals as raw materials each year, and Bt7.7 billion worth of such goods are imported from Russia.

In the second scenario, Nato and the US retaliate against Russia by suspending all kinds of transactions with it. They would stop providing credits and loans to Russian banks as well as remove Russian banks from the international transaction alliance or SWIFT code.

This would cause very high inflation in Russia and the Russian rouble would be greatly depreciated. The situation would affect stock and bond markets and global gross domestic product would contract by 5 per cent.

Thai-Russian bilateral trade totalling Bt88 billion — Bt56 billion of imports from Russia and Bt32 billion exports — would be affected, they said.

The club added that the export and import of vehicles, rubber products, machines, vegetables and fruit, and electric appliances would be affected. Fewer tourists from Russia would visit Thailand because of the economic slump in their country, the club added.

Published : February 07, 2022

By : THE NATION