The price of gold rose by THB100 in morning trade on Thursday.
AGold Traders Association report at 9.25am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,100 per baht weight and selling price THB28,200, while the buying and selling price of gold ornaments is THB27,591.20 and THB28,700, respectively.
At close on Wednesday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB28,000 per baht weight and selling price THB28,100, while gold ornaments were THB27,500.24 and THB28,600, respectively.
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The spot gold price on Thursday morning hovered around US$1,761 (THB59,575) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Wednesday rose slightly by 90 cents to $1,761.8 per ounce due to a slowdown in the US bond yields, while the market is keeping an eye on the announcement of US non-farm payrolls on Friday.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 8.30 points or 0.51 per cent to 1,627.78 on Thursday morning, witnessing a high of 1,628.66 and a low of 1,624.59 in opening trade.
Krungsri Securities predicted the day’s index would fluctuate between 1,610 and 1,630 points despite positive news of the US would extend a debt limit until December.
It added that the index also gained positive sentiment from hopes over the country reopening after domestic Covid-19 cases have declined.
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However, the volatility in fund flow and falling oil price after the US oil storage had risen beyond expectation would pressure the index,” Krungsri Securities said.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
▪︎ AOT, KBank, SCB, CPN, CRC, HMPro, AAV, BA, MINT, Amata, WHA and Major, which benefit from the country reopening.
▪︎ TOP SPRC BCP, which benefit from rising gross refining margin.
▪︎ Hana, KCE, TU, Asian and NER, which benefit from weakening baht.
The SET Index closed at 1,619.48 on Wednesday, down 4.76 points or 0.29 per cent. Transactions totalled 97.65 billion baht with an index high of 1,631.81 and a low of 1,617.24.
Travel during Chinas “Golden Week” national vacation was down by a third on pre-pandemic levels, suggesting government measures to contain sporadic coronavirus outbreaks are weighing on tourism and spending in the worlds second-largest economy.
The number of trips taken on China’s road, rail and other transport networks on Tuesday was 33.8% below levels seen in 2019, with travel consistently a third below pre-pandemic levels for each of the first five days of the holiday, according to the transport ministry. Compared with 2020, daily trips were more than 5% lower.
To achieve its Covid Zero goals, China has used strict measures of quarantine and business closures to stamp out imported clusters of the delta-variant of the coronavirus that emerged from late July. Officials advised against unnecessary travel and gatherings over the Golden Week holiday, which began Oct. 1, citing the risk of further outbreaks.
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The seven-day break is China’s most important annual holiday after the Lunar New Year and traditionally a time for tourism trips.
The virus restrictions are hurting consumer spending at a time when electricity shortages caused by high coal prices led to factory shutdowns and tough government policies to control the housing market weigh on property investment. Multiple economists have recently downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for this year.
“Recent Covid outbreaks are also still weighing on domestic spending and this pressure is likely to linger for longer,” Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note. He downgraded his estimate for China’s growth in the fourth quarter to 3.6% year-on-year from 5% previously, citing the continued impact of property curbs as the main factor.
Citigroup analysts said while leisure travel is showing signs of recovery, the rebound in tourism revenue may lag because of shorter trips, younger tourists and discounted products.
Cinema box office sales climbed during the holidays, a sign that consumers may be spending more on leisure activities closer to their places of residence even as they travel less.
Ticket sales over the first five days of the vacation were 3 billion yuan ($465 million), compared with 2.7 billion yuan in 2020, according to ticketing company Maoyan. Sales were driven by the success of “Battle at Lake Changjin” a patriotic film about the Korean War. Those sales were still below 2019 levels, when moviegoers spent 3.25 billion yuan over the first five days of the holiday.
China is expected to release more detailed spending data over the period at the end of the vacation on Thursday.
Asian buyers are paying top dollar for a variety of fuels that can be fed into steam boilers or power turbines as they seek alternatives to increasingly pricey natural gas.
The electricity crisis is roiling energy markets from Europe to Asia, with fuels that can be used for heating or power generation such as propane, diesel and fuel oil in high demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the crunch will drive greater consumption of crude later this year, while China has ordered state-owned firms to secure energy supplies for winter at all costs.
In Asia, prices of propane — an oil product that’s typically used for cooking or making plastics — have surged to the highest since at least 2016, while fuel oil recently almost doubled from a year earlier. Refiners are getting a boost from the crisis, with profits from converting oil into diesel at the highest since January 2020, before the pandemic eviscerated demand.
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The power crunch has been caused by surging prices for electricity feedstocks like coal and liquefied natural gas. The cost of the super-chilled fuel in Asia has jumped to a record, although that hasn’t discouraged China from buying in its pursuit of energy security. Saudi Aramco estimates the gas crisis has already increased oil demand by around 500,000 barrels a day, while Goldman sees consumption climbing even higher.
Tighter supplies of liquefied petroleum gas — which includes propane and butane — have contributed to higher prices. U.S. shipments to Asia plunged more than 30% in September from a month earlier to the lowest level since February, said Serena Huang, Asia lead analyst at Vortexa Ltd. Top LPG supplier Saudi Arabia has also hiked prices to the highest in seven years.
“LPG purchases from Asian importers will likely pick up ahead of winter,” said Sam Sng, a senior analyst at industry consultant FGE. Inventories in Japan are “fairly low,” while demand for blending LPG with LNG will increase in South Korea over the next few months, he added.
Fuel oil inventories are also dwindling. Typically used to power ships or as an emergency backstop for natural gas, stockpiles at the storage hub of Singapore have shrunk to the lowest level in two years. Pakistan and Bangladesh have been key buyers in the region, snapping up supplies to replace costlier LNG, which has helped to underpin improving margins for making fuel oil.
South Asia will generate about 85,000-to-90,000 barrels a day of incremental fuel oil demand from October through to March 2022, mostly from the power generation sector, according to Sandra Octavia, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. Japan — the epicenter of a fuel oil buying frenzy last winter — is likely better prepared with its energy supplies this year, however.
Stockpiling for winter heating is also boosting kerosene demand, said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting for IHS Markit. The overall demand surge may boost Singapore benchmark complex refining margins by about $3.10 a barrel in the fourth quarter, from a year earlier, he added.
China’s diesel consumption surged last winter as factories rushed to install portable generators to ensure plants remained open during power shortages, and that trend is likely to continue this year. Demand in Europe has soared, widening the price gap with Asia, while Indian exports of the fuel have jumped to the highest level in four months.
Stocks whipsawed in heavy trading as Republicans were poised to offer Democrats a way to end the debt limit impasse.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both gained, erasing earlier losses of more than 1%, after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he planned to offer a short-term debt ceiling increase that would last into December.
The turbulence comes as the benchmark S&P 500 has logged four straight days of 1% moves amid a growing list of concerns including the debt ceiling and inflation amid surging energy prices. European equities also halved losses as natural gas prices — up as much as 40% at one point — turned lower after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the country is ready to help.
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“With the latest news that Republicans are willing to come to the table and negotiate an extension, equities (and yields) have rallied back,” Anna Han, a Wells Fargo Securities strategist, said in an email. “It’s certainly not all peachy, but it does bring short-term relief to one of the various macro risks we have been watching.”
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was little changed as investors considered the U.S. economic outlook. ADP employment data beat analyst expectations ahead of Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, cementing predictions the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus next month. A strong U.S. jobs report could assuage worries about ongoing hiring challenges. However, the market remains volatile on concerns elevated inflation may persist longer than the central bank expects, especially in the face of an energy crunch this winter.
“To be sure, the beat on private payroll numbers is a positive but there’s no shortage of catalysts out there that could move the market,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial, adding that positive labor data could prompt the Fed to tighten policy at a quicker pace. “But the fact that hiring is up, shouldn’t be discounted. It’s definitely a good thing in terms of recovery.”
If job gains in the ADP data does translate to Friday’s report, analysts expect the Fed to announce taper plans for its asset-purchase program in early November. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said he was looking for “decent” job growth.
“We’re in quite a different labor market in that for many sectors there is a shortage of workers,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “Hopefully we’re in the midst of seeing more labor supply with kids back in school, covid under control and the end of the extra unemployment benefits.”
Crude oil in New York fell, the dollar was stronger against major peers, and Bitcoin jumped above $54,000.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. EDT
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.3%
The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1558
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3588
The Japanese yen was little changed at 111.39 per dollar
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasurys was little changed at 1.52%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.18%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.07%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.4% to $77.06 a barrel
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,619.48 on Wednesday, down 4.76 points or 0.29 per cent. Transactions totalled 97.65 billion baht with an index high of 1,631.81 and a low of 1,617.24.
The index fell after rising by 0.60 per cent on Tuesday and 0.58 per cent on Monday.
In the morning session, Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index would rise to between 1,630 and 1,635 points on rising oil and coal prices in response to China’s power crisis.
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It added that the index also gained positive sentiment from hopes over the country reopening after domestic Covid-19 cases continued to decline, plus ongoing development of Molnupiravir anti-coronavirus pill.
However, the index would be under pressure in the short term due to uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve signalling it would taper its quantitative easing and raise the interest rate sooner than expected,” Krungsri Securities said.
The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were BANPU, SVT, TRUE, SCC, KBANK, GUNKUL, PTT, GULF, IVL and CPALL.
Other Asian indices were on the fall: Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 27,528.87, down 293.25 points or 1.05 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,966.49, down 137.66 points or 0.57 per cent. South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,908.31, down 53.86 points or 1.82 per cent. Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 16,393.16, down 67.59 points or 0.41 per cent.
China’s Shanghai SE Composite and Shenzhen SE Component Indices were closed for National Day.
The price of gold rose by THB100 in morning trade on Wednesday.
A9.29am report from the Gold Traders Association showed the buying price of gold bar at THB28,100 per baht weight and selling price at THB28,200, while the buying and selling price of gold ornaments is THB27,591.20 and THB28,700, respectively.
At close on Tuesday, the buying price of gold bar was THB28,000 per baht weight and selling price THB28,100, while gold ornaments were THB27,500.24 and THB28,600, respectively.
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The spot gold price on Wednesday morning was hovering around US$1,758 (THB59,561) per ounce after Comex gold at close on Tuesday dropped by $6.7 to $1,760.9 per ounce. This was the first day of decline in four business days due to pressure from the appreciation of the US dollar and the rise in the US government bond yields
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 0.88 points or 0.05 per cent to 1,623.36 on Wednesday morning, witnessing a high of 1,629.83 and a low of 1,622.51 in opening trade.
Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index would rise to between 1,630 and 1,635 points on rising oil and coal prices in response to China’s power crisis.
It added that the index also gained positive sentiment from hopes over the country reopening after domestic Covid-19 cases continued to decline, plus ongoing development of Molnupiravir anti-coronavirus pill.
ADVERTISEMENT
However, the index would be under pressure in the short term due to uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve signalling it would taper its quantitative easing and raise the interest rate sooner than expected,” Krungsri Securities said.
It also recommended buying of the following companies’ shares as an investment strategy:
▪︎ PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, SPRC and IVL, which benefit from rising oil price.
▪︎ Banpu and Lanna, which benefit from rising coal price.
▪︎ AOT, KBank, SCB, CPN, CRC, HMPro, AAV, BA, MINT, Amata, WHA and Major, which benefit from the country reopening.
The SET Index closed at 1,624.24 on Tuesday, up 9.76 points or 0.60 per cent. Transactions totalled 88.96 billion baht with an index high of 1,626.44 and a low of 1,611.42.
The baht opened at 33.83 to the US dollar on Wednesday, weakening from Tuesday’s closing rate of 33.76.
The Thai currency is likely to move between 33.75 and 33.90 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the baht might weaken further while the dollar strengthens if the results of US economic data especially the ADP National Employment Report turn out than expected. The market speculated that the nonfarm payroll employment report on Friday will also be better than expected.
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The baht is also supported by the gold price increasing which causes investors to sell.
However, the baht will not strengthen clearly soon in the short term.
Poon added that the baht might test the key resistance level of 34.00 to the dollar until the market is ready to take more risks and invest in Thai assets.
UNICEF and Department of Mental Health caution on World Mental Health Day
BANGKOK October 8, 2021 – Marking the World Mental Health Day on 10 October, UNICEF and Department of Mental Health (DMH) expressed concerns over the continued negative impact of COVID-19 on children and young people’s mental health in Thailand as significant numbers of adolescents face stress, anxiety and depression.
A recent mental health assessment among adolescents in Thailand found that 28 per cent of adolescents experience high levels of stress, while 32 per cent are at risk of depression and 22 per cent are at risk of committing suicide, according to DMH’s Mental Health Check-in, an online mental health evaluation platform which collected data from 183,974 adolescents during the 18-month of COVID-19 pandemic from 1 January 2020 – 30 September 2021.
In a separate UNICEF-led survey last year, 7 in 10 children and young people reported poorer mental health due to the impact of COVID-19 on their lives. Most of them were concerned about family household incomes, their studies, and future education and employment.
“Increasing numbers of children and adolescents in Thailand and around the world are facing mental health conditions and disorders, and we believe this is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Kyungsun Kim, UNICEF Representative for Thailand. “Although the impact of poor mental health among children and young people is significant with the potential to result in lifelong consequences, mental health remains largely neglected and under-estimated, often times even hidden due to the stigma and shame surrounding the issue. This is something all of us must address, to destigmatize mental health conditions, encourage conversation around it, and make services and support easily available for those who need it.”
Earlier this week, UNICEF released a global flagship report The State of the World’s Children 2021; On My Mind: promoting, protecting and caring for children’s mental health which points out that at least 1 in 7 children around the world has been directly affected by lockdowns, while more than 1.6 billion children have suffered some loss of education. The report also warns that children and young people could suffer from the impact of COVID-19 on their mental health and well-being for many years to come.
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Even before the pandemic, children and young people have carried the burden of mental health conditions without significant investment in addressing them, the report added. According to the latest available estimates, more than 1 in 7 adolescents aged 10–19 is estimated to live with a diagnosed mental disorder globally. Almost 46,000 adolescents die from suicide each year, among the top five causes of death for their age group.
In Thailand, suicide is the leading cause of death among adolescents. In 2019, about 800 adolescents and young people aged 10-29 years old committed suicide, according to DMH. The 2019 data from the DMH’s Child and Adolescent Mental Health Rajanagarindra Institute (CAMRI) also shows that more than 10,000 children aged 10-19 called to seek mental health support via Hotline 1323, with top three issues reported during the calls being related to stress and anxiety, romantic relationship, and depression.
COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive poor mental health among children and young people
Dr. Amporn Benjapolpitak, Director-General of DMH, said the pandemic has significantly affected children, young people and parents. For children who are not adjusting to the new learning environment, their education and development may be affected in the long run. Many parents are not able to balance work and taking care of their children. COVID-19 restrictions, including physical distancing and fewer outdoor activities, have not only affected family bonds but also caused stress among children. Many have become less sociable and more addicted to devices. This also leads to more incidences of family conflicts and domestic violence, resulting in mental health challenges or even suicide. DMH is working with related agencies and UNICEF to monitor children and young people’s mental health more closely.
A lack of knowledge and awareness on mental health, associated stigma and a lack of mental health resources and funding are preventing too many children and adolescents from experiencing positive mental health or accessing the support and services they need. According to CAMRI, Thailand has only 200 psychiatrists specialized on children and adolescent mental health for 15 million adolescent population.
UNICEF and DMH are working with partners to promote access to quality and timely mental health support and services for children and young people. The partnership also aims to break the silence surrounding mental health conditions through encouraging dialogue, addressing stigma, and promoting better understanding of mental health among children and adolescents, parents and society as a whole.
In 2020, UNICEF, DMH and JOOX Thailand implemented The Sound of Happiness campaign to encourage children and adolescents to speak up about their mental health and well-being and seek support. Through podcasts and songs, the campaign aimed at addressing negative perceptions around mental health and encouraging young people to talk about mental health challenges with their friends and family or someone they trust.
“UNICEF is committed to working with DMH, the education authorities, and other partners to ensure that children are growing and learning in a safe, loving and protective environment that supports their mental well-being. We want to make sure that children and adolescents can always access friendly, timely and quality professional mental health services whenever they need them.” Kim added.
COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive poor mental health among children and young people
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