Perhaps something more lenient, such as the nine-month peace course introduced by King Prajadhipok’s Institute (KPI), could be the answer as it requires both sides to be patient and listen.

During the KPI course, pro-Thaksin politician Vipoothalaeng Pattanapoomthai befriended anti-Thaksin activist Veera Somkwamkid, while outspoken red-shirt activist Sombat Boonngamanong cosied up with Democrat politician Tankhun Jittitsara.

“I used to oppose his moves, but once I listened to him in classes, I understood and learned that our mutual interest is in the country’s interest,” Vipoothalaeng said, referring to his one-time foe Veera, an anti-corruption activist.

Veera also emphasised his friendship with former Pheu Thai MP Vipoothalaeng, saying, “We are friends now. When we spent time together [during the course], we understood the conflict and each other better.”

Veera was released in July 2014 after being held in Cambodia for three years over charges of spying. He was nabbed while visiting a disputed area at the Thai-Cambodia border.

The friendship of these one-time foes became stronger during the course that was especially designed to bring people from both sides of the political spectrum together.

So far, some 90 participants from different fields have enrolled in the sixth KPI course based on “peaceful society building”, which initially focused on the conflict in the deep South but is now being applied to the ongoing political conflict.

Another pair of former foes participating were former Democrat MP Tankhun, who was also previously a leader of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee, and Sombat, also known as Bor Kor Lai Jud (the Polka Dot Editor).

They too have become friends, and their friendship is being used as an example of how this course encourages people to understand individual differences.

“Though we have different mindsets, paying attention to his thoughts helps me better understand him,” Tankhun said of Sombat.

Sombat, who is also leader of a pro-democracy group called Red Sunday, said his perspective broadened as he understood Tankhun’s thought processes and realised why he was so against the red-shirt movement.

He added that the course showed him that all the participants really want a democratic country. “But we just have different methods for achieving that,” he added.

Sombat, who has been repeatedly warned by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to stop campaigning against it, revealed that the “attitude adjustment” session did nothing to influence his attitude and could not change his mindset.

The activist was briefly detained in June 2014, just a month after the military coup, following his online campaign against the coup-makers. He said that during detention he was only told to “surrender” to the power of the new regime.

Tankhun suggested that creating a “safety zone” where people can share their opinions could help resolve the social divide.

“It could be in the form of a seminar or other forms of engagement, rather using military power,” he said.

The politician added that the junta could employ “soft power” and “accept the fact that it’s human nature [for an individual] to express their thoughts”. He too was taken in for an “attitude adjustment” session in 2014 following his opposition to the coup.

He said the more the NCPO used its sweeping power to detain dissidents, the more disadvantages it would face, warning that the detainees could take advantage of appearing vulnerable in the eye of the public to counterattack the junta.

Vipoothalaeng, Veera, Sombat and Tankhun all agreed that a platform that enables people to listen to each other and “be listened to” would be effective in resolving conflicts.

The friendship between the two pairs of old foes proves that the course is successful, as intended by KPI’s curriculum director General Ekkachai Srivilas.

“This year’s course is far more successful compared to the other courses held over the past five years,” Ekkachai said, who also serves as director of the KPI’s Office of Peace and Governance. He said there were no conflicts among the participants despite their contrasting political beliefs.

“We don’t force the students to wipe out their ideology and think the way we want. But we let them listen each other, talk and accept different opinions,” he explained.

“Making people understand each other certainly cannot be achieved in say three, seven or 15 days, ” he said.

When asked why this course was able to turn foes into friends, Ekkachai explained that it takes time to solve conflicts.

“The course is nine month and we let the participants spend time together, going on field trips and getting involved in discussions. That’s how they become friends,” he pointed out.

The programme that they attended is now nearing an end. They have completed their classes and field trips and are now preparing a play and public talk as part of their “graduation ceremony”. The event is scheduled for April 29 at the Government Complex on Chaeng Wattana Road and are hoping it will promote peace in the country.

The three key revisions to the charter draft proposed by the National Council for Peace and Order may give the NCPO the confidence it will continue to retain a significant say in governance after a general election.

Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan is certain that with these provisions neither Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha nor he would need to become the next PM to maintain their power.

The three proposals are in addition to the 16 suggestions the Cabinet had earlier presented to the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC). Among the suggestions was the charter should have two different periods of enforcement. First will be an interim period (later called transition period) in which restrictions would be imposed to ensure peace and order, followed by a normal period with full democracy.

The three latest proposals were said to have been derived from the agreement between the Cabinet, the NCPO, the National Legislative Assembly and the National Reform Steering Assembly.

The first proposal is to have a Senate comprising 250 non-elected senators, in which the five military top brass and the national police chief would be ex-officio senators. The senators would serve a five-year term and could grill the government in a no-confidence debate. However, they will not have the power to vote in the PM.

The most widely criticised part of the proposal was about giving ex-officio Senate membership to the military top brass. Prawit has defended it, saying the proposal is intended to prevent a coup. The proposal gives senators an unprecedented, powerful role, including safeguarding the charter and taking part in a no-confidence debate against the government.

The senators would ensure that for the first five years, the charter would not be amended without the Senate’s consent. The Senate would be nothing short of “the largest political party” in Parliament. If the Senate sided with the government or the opposition, it could help make up a majority.

Another powerful role proposed for the Senate is appointment of members to independent agencies and impeaching them.

When a no-confidence debate is launched, the Senate can both oppose and support the government. “If the government is the junta’s ally, the Senate will check and balance the power. If the government is the junta’s rival, the Senate will support the government,” a source said.

The Senate would serve a term of five years while MPs serve a four-year term, which means the Senate could work with two governments.

The second proposal was to adopt a two ballot-paper election system with 150 party-list MPs and 350 constituency MPs, with three MP candidates in one constituency. A voter would cast a ballot for only one MP candidate. Large parties like Pheu Thai would stand to lose advantage under this system.

The third proposal was to remove a provision in the charter draft that required political parties to announce PM candidates before an election.

The NCPO said that this provision might become a hindrance to forming a government, especially if the PM candidates withdrew or were disqualified; or if no party had a majority vote to form a government and a coalition government was needed but the coalition parties could not agree on who should become PM. They might nominate others who were not on the list announced earlier. This might pave the way for a non-elected PM, or for the junta members to continue in power. But the NCPO said that during the interim period, this provision should not be adopted. CDC chairman Meechai Ruchupan had said that this provision was to prevent a “hooded man” from becoming the PM.

Prawit insisted that he and Prayut would not become PM after a general election. Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam also confirmed this. A source said the reason behind the proposed removal of the provision was because PM candidates who were nominated may not want the public to know about their nomination prior to an election.

This was because once their names were revealed to the public, they would become targets for attack and scrutiny.

ONLINE OUTLETS, most notably Facebook, have become popular media for constitution draft enthusiasts and opponents to agitate for and against the charter as it is due to be completed by the end of the month with a referendum in July.

Thai politics are on fire again following the release of the initial draft in late January. Comments are overflowing everywhere online about the potential constitution, which could dictate the political landscape after the current regime is dissolved.

Besides key political players such as the parties and notable factions, minor and niche groups have also been very active online showing frustration regarding the draft and calling on followers to vote it down in the planned plebiscite.

A page titled “Stop Being Fake Thailand”, which has nearly half a million followers on Facebook, expresses discontent over the charter draft and has gained a lot attention, including from the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) chief Meechai Ruchupan.

The page, which leans towards the “red” end of the political spectrum, has posted a set of simple yet meaningful photos with propaganda messages attacking the charter draft since the first version was revealed.

Using the down-to-earth vernacular to explain the draft, Stop Being Fake Thailand propaganda has included a satire of the coup-maker’s song “Returning Happiness to the Thai People”, with the satirical song instead crooning “just give me a moment”, alleging that the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) wants to prolong its stay in power through the new constitution.

A few other Facebook pages expressing so-called red-shirt ideology have also been fiercely campaigning using similar methods. They include the “New Democracy Movement” (NDM), which is run by a young political activist group of the same name.

Just like Stop Being Fake Thailand, the campaign highlights controversial points of the charter including the authority of independent organisations, the recruitment method for the Senate, the single-ballot electoral system, and the process required for future constitutional amendments.

Besides the simple and funny text messages criticising the charter, the NDMFacebook page features satirical doctored photos of leading figures in the government. This, too, has helped their spin be welcomed by netizens who have shared the photos hundreds of times.

Humour and a laid-back style seemed to be popular tactics for online critics of the draft, and even more serious groups such as iLaw and Prachamati.org have organised creative Facebook campaigns asking netizens to offer nicknames for it.

Participants tended towards the most funny titles, such as “Angel Baby (Look Thep) Charter”, in reference to the craze for “angel dolls” that swept Thailand recently. But the winning title was a reference to the popular Thai blockbuster “Muen Jon Ho”, with the author explaining that the constitution draft was so confusing (muen) that it made people cry (ho).

However, countering the storm of objections, there are also a few Facebook pages campaigning and posting infographics advocating for the constitution draft.

There are the official messages being promoted by the CDC’s public relations team published on the “Our New Constitution” Facebook page, which has about 1,600 followers, with relevant hotlinks leading to the government’s parliament.go.th address.

For instance, the CDC has produced a document explaining controversial issues relating to their work point by point.

One notable example is the explanation of the draft’s section on rights and liberties, which critics said was inadequate in the first version of the draft.

Another Facebook page “Constitution Insight” recently emerged that also advocates for the draft. As the name suggests, the page gives insights and information meant to counter what it calls myths about the draft.

One of the most successful pro-draft messages has been a three-minute video clip, “What to know before complaining about the 2016 charter”, which has been widely shared including by a pro-military Facebook fan-page. The original video on YouTube has registered more than 44,000 views.

The video presents an adorable graphic addressing points about the charter draft that have allegedly been distorted by critics, including the controversial single-ballot system and allegations that there is an agenda to install a non-elected prime minister.

An advertisement for Constitution Insight has appeared on the most popular online forum, Pantip.com, which according to twfdigital.com, an IT and marketing blog, costs around Bt80,000 for a 30-day period.

The CDC denies being responsible for the Facebook page.

As the final draft of the constitution is scheduled to be released this month, the CDC and the government will almost certainly work harder to campaign for it.

The Election Commission, which is responsible for urging people to vote in the referendum, plans to distribute fewer hard copies of the draft constitution than originally planned, and instead rely on mobile applications and Internet campaigns.

According to a source in EC, a new application and website will be launched to inform voters ahead of the referendum. The source added that the format would rely on infograpics and similar tools to inform voters instead of flooding them with text and jargon.

A VAST historical battlefield at the foot of the legendary mountain Khao Chon Kai is usually the site of weapons and ammunition stockpiles for military training.

But now it is dotted with giant infographic vinyl boards in preparation for a new campaign.

As a referendum on the new charter draft draws near, the Army has turned this training field into an open classroom for Thai Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) students from across the country. Its aim is to educate these forces about democracy and the content of the new charter so they can help to encourage people to turn out and cast their votes.

The one-day charter introductory course is part of the “ROTC Volunteer” project the Army introduced a few months ago to recruit the corps to do extra volunteer work, including raising public awareness on issues of importance.

Under the project, up to 80,000 ROTC students have registered with the consent of their parents. Army chief General Theerachai Nakvanich has expressed a wish to see students help to move the country forward.

Since the first charter draft was developed more than a year ago, opposition has been growing, raising fears that the trend could undermine efforts ahead of the referendum. A low voter turnout is among the issues of concern as it could result in the referendum being considered invalid.

Controversial topics and content to be presented include the new election methods for MPs, Senators and the premiership; the prime minister’s role; and stringent measures limiting politicians’ power and governing their conduct.

Territorial Defence Command Chief Lt-General Weerachai Intusophon said the Army realised the referendum would involve important decisions about the country’s future and people should have a good understanding of it before making a decision.

As a result, the military plans to educate students and assign them to encourage voters to exercise their voting rights.

The volunteer students will be visiting communities in every district from March to May before the referendum near the end of July.

“At least, they will be able to ignite people’s interest in the new charter to learn more about it,” Weerachai said.

In talks with the Election Commission (EC), the Territorial Defence Command agreed to develop the unconventional training class, which is meant to expose students to the charter draft and referendum. According to Sampun Sangkumlerd, deputy director general of the Department of Election Campaign and Information Dissemination, students will then have a role in returning democracy to the country.

In the course curriculum, instruction materials are used along with verbal instructions, according to Maj-General Prakran Padavanija, commanding general of the Reserve Affairs Centre. Students are also meant to learn ideas by themselves using the infographic boards, he said.

The newly designed curriculum is based on six installations, which present subjects including environmental preservation, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) roadmap, the referendum roadmap, the controversial content of the charter draft, the concept of democratic citizenship and the volunteers’ mission, said Lt-Colonel Boonlerst Yimyai, a lead trainer.

The content is then transformed into fieldwork. Last week, The Nation observed as the six installations were set up at the Khao Chon Kai military camp on an outdoor cement platform. The installations are called “Learning Stations” and decorated with large, coloured vinyl canvases.

About 600 female reservists trotted to the learning bases to escape the scorching sun. A couple of young military trainers greeted the girls and instructed them to sit down.

The students were divided into six groups to visit each station with each learning session lasting seven minutes. When one session finished, students moved to another base where a military trainer explained the NCPO’s roadmap and mission with a large picture of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in the backdrop.

“If [during the 2014 coup] the NCPO had not taken the country over and governed it, what would have happened” the trainer asked the audience.

“How would Thailand have been seen in other countries’ eyes” she continued.

“Bad,” responded the students.

Standing by the side of the NCPO’s roadmap display, a male trainer explained the new election system outlined by the draft charter. “Look at the infographic board and go through the content,” said the trainer.

A couple of minutes passed. “The new election method enables people to get involved in politics more,” the trainer added.

“Understand” shouted the young trainer. “Yes!” answered the fourth-year female students.

After finishing sessions at every base, some students shared their views with The Nation. Napath Rattanakrittiyapar, a female fourth-year student said: “It gave me a rough idea of the referendum. It’s good. The NCPO is also good. They are clear and manage things [in an] orderly [way].”

Some students, however, thought differently.

“My friends and I did not learn about the charter draft much in the camp. I’m not really interested in politics and the charter. Only a couple of my friends in the battalion joined the ROTC Volunteer project,” said Thun Chakshuraksha, a leader of the second-year student battalion.

Since the course began, some political observers have voiced concerns over the short duration of the training, saying a few minutes were not enough to help the students to understand the complicated content of the charter draft and the referendum. But more critically, they questioned whether it was appropriate to get Army reservists involved in political matters.

“This is not the Army’s responsibility, but I’m not surprised about this move. This is a military government,” said Sombat Boonngamanong, a pro-democracy activist known as Bor Kor Lai Jud.

“This could be a strategy convincing people to accept the charter. This is political machinery asking people to cast votes in the referendum,” said the activist, who specialises in using political symbolism. EC member Somchai Srisuthiyakorn disagreed: “[For ROTC students] to campaign to draw people’s attention to the charter draft and the referendum is fine. It is not using the students to instruct people to vote ‘Yes’. But if that was so, it would be unacceptable.”

The EC also insisted it had designed the content to fit the course duration. “The content regarding democracy and the road to the referendum is simple and concise. We only aim to raise the students’ awareness of democratic citizenship, a general election and the referendum,” Sampun said.

ROTC students are also using social media daily and can pass on what they learn to other people around country, which was the real reason why they were chosen, lead trainer Boonlerst said.

“It is easier to teach the young than the old. The reason why we target ROTC students is that it is easy for us to approach them, compared to high school or university students,” he said.

 

The students were from the army’s “ROTC Volunteer” project. Last Friday, they visited three communities – Choduk, Wongsawat and Police Sapha – in Samphanthawong district to invite people to cast votes in the upcoming referendum on the new charter draft.

After a short introduction course on fieldwork, the students now have to campaign to draw the public’s attention to the charter referendum scheduled in the end of July.

The students, however, did not appear to know much about the drafting.

“I have no idea about the draft and have not read it yet. I have heard there will be a draft ready for the public shortly before the referendum date,” said Nontawat Phooraya, an 18-year-old student.

The campaigners’ lack of understanding about the draft led many to question whether the training and the campaign were effective- and it remained to be seen whether the campaign would succeed. So far, no independent assessment had been made.

The campaign is aimed at boosting people’s awareness of the upcoming referendum by using the ROTC students as campaigners. Students have been taught recently about the referendum’s roadmap and controversial content in the draft in a newly designed training course.

From March to May, volunteer students will visit communities nationwide to encourage them to take part in the referendum. Before a visit, the Army will coordinate with community leaders as well as concerned parties such as village headmen and abbots in local temples. As a result, the caravans are well received with community leaders escorting students to each household and ensuring |security.

In Bangkok, the volunteer group stopped at occupied residences.

Speaking loudly in the hope of grabbing the audience’s attention, students confidently asked residents to join the referendum, although they could not say for sure what the charter draft was about.

After a visit to each house, two students asked the audience to complete survey sheets requesting feedback about the ROTC Volunteer project and asking if they would vote in the referendum.

As anticipated, each community and family had different attitudes towards the campaign.

Some communities did not warmly welcome the volunteers, although they did not express their feelings aggressively.

“The villagers [in Choduk community] aren’t interested in politics much. They just live from hand to mouth,” said Sangthien Sunanta, president of the Choduk community organisation.

“To make an impact, the students had to visit the community and campaign frequently, not just come then go.

“Also bear in mind that each community is different, the visitors have to know stereotypes of each particular community. To approach them requires some psychological skills,” she said.

Another community leader from Wongsawat voiced a similar remark, saying communities had different lifestyles, which could be a challenge for the students.

“It is better to use TV ads for campaigning. People did not open the door. They live inside the houses and watch TV all day long,” said Vichien Kamolngarmpipat, president of the Wongsawat community organisation.

 

Panitan was referring to Deputy Prime Ministers Somkid Jatusripitak and Prawit Wongsuwan’s official visit to Russia and Belarus from Tuesday until today to expand cooperation on security, trade and investment. This was the first official visit between Thailand and Russia since a visit by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Thailand last April.

“Even the US adopts rebalancing policies. It is not strange that Thailand also re-balances its foreign policies. But this does not mean we will replace the US with Russia or China. We have overlapping ties with every country,” he said.

Panitan said Thailand would have to be careful not to adversely affect military ties with the US, which the country has always given first priority to. He said Thai relations with China over security had been upgraded after the countries agreed on an extradition treaty. “Almost 10 million Chinese visit Thailand, so if we do not have this, we would not be able to deal with related threats,” he explained.

About 1.7 million Russians visit Thailand annually, Panitan said. The reason both Somkid and Prawit had to pay an official visit to Russia together was because of expected talks on currency issues. “There is a need to negotiate because Russia does not want to accept US dollars from bilateral trade,” he said.

Aside from formal bilateral dealings, Thailand also has a plan to procure from Russia 10 Mi-17 transport helicopters for a total of Bt3 billion and 100 T-90 A tanks for Bt9 billion. Thailand needs new tanks, Panitan said, because it wants to decommission 100 old tanks.

Somkid and Prawit’s trip to Russia is seen as a precursor to a visit in May by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who was invited by President Vladimir Putin to attend the Asean-Russia Commemorative Summit. During this trip, Thailand and Russia will mark their 120th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2017.

Panitan said Thailand and Russia have had long, but not close ties, because Russia had many restrictions in the past. Russian leaders were not well acquainted with Asean leaders including Thai leaders.

“Unlike the present, where we have good relations, especially economic sectors of both countries enjoy close ties and rising trade and tourism,” he said.

Both Thailand and Russia see more opportunities after the world powers like the US and Russia rebalance foreign policies towards Asian regions.

During the 23rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Economic Leaders’ Meeting in November last year, Prayut told the Russian prime minister he would dispatch his deputies in charge of security and economic affairs to visit Russia to expand bilateral cooperation.

Prayut will then visit Russia with two main objectives, first over security issues and an exchange of intelligence, anti-terrorism and transnational organised crime.

“The concern is expansion of terrorism by IS. We will discuss security issues for Russian tourists. After reviewing the existing MoU, we will sign a new MoU,” he said.

The second objective was negotiating an exchange – Russian armaments such as helicopters for disaster relief with Thai agricultural products such as rice and rubber, Panitan said. “Russia needs agricultural products because it is boycotted by the EU and it has potential on energy,” Panitan said. Prawit will also visit Belarus to discuss security matters. “It is a country with great potential in military and armaments,” the adviser explained.

The heatedly debated 20-year national strategy proposal is not the result of a sudden decision, but actually is a plan hatched and nurtured over the last two years under the coordination of some of the key “Five Rivers” actors.

And unlike other developments that are critical to the country, including the previous charter draft that was killed before it was born, the national strategy has survived to fulfil senior officials’ wishes for a long-term vision to face modern challenges.

According to sources working close to the plan, the national strategy in its present form is a revised version of a “bureaucratic administration” committee under the now-defunct National Reform Council (NRC). The idea was developed by senior military officials on the panel.

The NRC first considered the conceptual framework in early 2015 when the bureaucratic administration committee met with its counterpart in the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and agreed on the plan in principle, according to the latest 2016 report on the “preparation and implementation of the national strategy bill”, which sources revealed to The Nation.

The NRC later received a report on “the national strategy and the national strategy draft bill development” for deliberation. It endorsed the report on June 23 before proposing it to the prime minister on July 6.

Before that, during a June 30 meeting, the Cabinet had endorsed the 20-year national strategy development, which paved the way of an establishment of the “national strategy preparation” committee, instructing Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam to consult with the NRC to coordinate efforts.

The same source, who worked on developing a comprehensive reform framework, said the proposed national strategy committee in the report would not be the same as the National Strategic Reform and Reconciliation Committee (NSRRC) proposed in the previous charter draft, which was highly controversial given wide speculation that it was given power to overrule future governments. The source said the new committee was expected to give up the NSRRC’s role after the first five years.

The former Constitution Drafting Committee led by Borwornsak Uwanno also had proposed a similar “national strategy” committee, but the idea was only in its initial stages as the committee focused its efforts on the NSRRC, which was tasked with a broad spectrum of reform and reconciliation.

After the NRC voted down on the previous charter draft, the 2015 report and draft bill submitted to the government was considered by government legal advisers as invalid and to be discarded, the source said.

However, after the National Reform Steering Assembly (NRSA) was appointed to replace the NRC to continue the reforms, a new “bureaucratic administration reform steering” committee was established, with some of the same figures sitting on the committee, the source said. The proposal was then brought back to the table.

Another source working close to the matter, who also preferred anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, told The Nation that the government had the national committee working on the content of the strategy, while the NRSA’s committee helped develop mechanisms to drive the strategy. These included the national strategy draft bill, he said.

The committee submitted a letter requesting the new Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) to address national strategy in the new charter draft, and it appeared in its Article 61 and 263 of its provisional chapter.

Last Tuesday, the committee then proposed a new report on the “preparation and implementation of the national strategy bill”, which also proposed a “national strategy” committee along with other points sent to the NRSA for deliberation. The NRSA endorsed it with a majority of 164 votes.

Pol Maj Yongyut Sarasombat, the NRSA’s committee chair, declined to give a full interview to The Nation, but said the committee would speed up its work and submit a review this week.

According to the committee’s meeting records from last Friday, the committee planned to revise some elements, including more being more specific about the new committee’s authority to “X-ray” future governments’ performance in regard to the strategy, and to alert concerned organisations in case of failure.

The revised report is expected to be submitted to the committee for endorsement today before it is forwarded to the government.

The first source said the currently proposed strategy committee could be considered weaker than the NSRCC because it did not include Army leaders. However, it apparently had more stringent authority to scrutinise future governments, which possibly prompted severe criticism of it although it has no special powers to intervene in time of crisis like the NSRRC would have. “I agree with the idea that we should have a national strategy, but the presently proposed structure and authority is too questionable and needs reconsideration,” said the source.

Sirote Klampaiboon, an independent political scientist, said the national strategy as proposed was highly questionable, including whether it could respond to the modern challenges given the complexity both at home and abroad.

“Public policies cannot be determined by a small group of people, but [should be] developed through a broad support via political revolution. They should help reflect people’s needs and connect to the people via political movements. With this idea developed, the learning process would be undermined.”

Strategies map out 20 years of potential threats

As the government’s 20-year national strategies become clearer, a mix of viewpoints has emerged.

Some people are looking at the process as a product of a military mindset and are cautious, while others believe the military approach may help steer the country in the right direction, which might be better than leaving the task to politicians.

Whatever the viewpoint, the military is trying to justify its approach, in part by identifying the range of potential threats that the strategies are meant to counter.

The Prayut government’s 20-year strategies are set to start in 2017. As revealed to The Nation by a military intelligence source, the long-term objectives aim to ensure that the country develops with stability and prosperity under the sufficiency economy philosophy.

The goals are for Thais to be happy, have high incomes and have a standard of living in keeping with developed countries. The strategies state that in society there must be equality, justice and economic competitiveness.

The strategies also address cyber threats, which the government views as a national threat.

National threats change quickly in accordance with border-less communication technologies. State websites have collapsed after attacks by anonymous hackers, resulting in operations ceasing temporarily.

The reasons behind the cyber attacks range from dissatisfaction with government policies to religious beliefs and political ideologies.

The military source said both conventional threats and new emerging threats were being considered.

Conventional threats spurred the deployment of troops in response to military clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. Military analysts believe this type of threat is unlikely to take place again given both sides have common interests such as economic benefits. For example, the two countries use energy sources in the Gulf of Thailand in overlapping areas.

The national strategic framework identifies threats to the country starting now and projecting to five, 10 and 20 years’ time. The government believes that over the next 20 years there will be new or unconventional threats that may be similar to present-day threats but different in detail.

Those threats include terrorism, although Thailand is not generally considered to be a prime terrorism target. The threat of terrorism, however, has intensified with advancements in technology and communications. Countries’ borders have become almost meaningless. Additionally, it has become necessary to prepare for threats such as sabotage and cyber attacks that destroy communications and threaten the economic system.

There are also threats from communicable diseases as many new diseases have emerged, spreading quickly and widely and often exceeding the capabilities of civilian healthcare responders.

Another threat that is considered as new relates to conflicts over natural resources.

Some of these threats are initiated as people carry out their normal daily routines, requiring constant vigilance and thorough monitoring of the possible indicators and precursors of a threat. Authorities have to evaluate both the intentions and capabilities of suspects to assess the possible threat level.

This is particularly true in the case of cyber attacks because just a single person can stage an attack and collapse a computer system, so the threat capability is clear.

For the most part, the 20-year national strategies focus on threats that derive from within the country.

Advocates of the national strategies point out that Thailand has never before mapped out such a comprehensive approach, as past governments generated contradictory policies based on political priorities and their popularity.