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Dollar stumbles into 2021 as bets on global recovery dominate

EconJan 05. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Greg Ritchie, Ruth Carson, Tian Chen

The U.S. dollar kicked off the new year with a weak start as expectations for a global economic recovery bolstered demand for riskier assets.

It lost ground against almost every major currency on Monday, pushing a gauge of its strength to the lowest level in nearly three years, after purchasing managers indexes across Europe and Asia showed factory activity gathering pace.

The euro rose as much as 0.7% against the dollar toward a high last seen more than two years ago, while the greenback touched the weakest level against the Chinese yuan since June 2018. Stocks and gold rallied as the market brushed aside concerns over the accelerating spread of the virus.

Investor sentiment is improving as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out and data point to a broad-based up-tick in economic activity. That’s undermining the case for the U.S. currency, the haven currency of choice for most investors. It capped its biggest annual drop since 2017 last year.

“Uncertainty is diminishing and the strong global growth recovery should favor the rest of the world,” said Patrik Schowitz, global multi-asset strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, which is underweight the dollar. The currency’s weakness is likely to be most notable “against the emerging markets foreign-exchange complex, which should have cyclical upside and is still relatively cheap.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% to its lowest level since February 2018. It ended 2020 5.5% weaker. Speculative positions against the currency were at the most in almost a decade, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the second last week of December.

“The markets are following the 2021 buy-everything play book to the tee,” said Stephen Innes, a strategist at Axi. “I would not be surprised if a lot of packed in risk premium continues to come off the curve,” especially if the U.S. Democratic Party wins the Senate election in Georgia on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump on Saturday urged Georgia election officials to “find” thousands of votes and recalculate the election result to flip the state to him as he tries to dispute Joe Biden’s election win.

China’s yuan is likely to be a “standout” beneficiary from a weaker dollar thanks to “yield erosion and twin deficits” that are weighing on the greenback, said Patrick Bennett, strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong. The onshore yuan rose as much as 1.1% on Monday and breached the 6.5 level for the first time since June 2018.

The yuan’s yield advantage over the dollar, which is near the widest on record, is also driving capital inflows. Reserve managers probably increased their holdings of the Japanese yen and the yuan in the third quarter of 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs note, based on an analysis of data from the International Monetary Fund.

“There is still plenty of scope for the global economy to do better than consensus forecasts,” said Kit Juckes, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA. “Fretting about policy normalization will be a recurrent theme for 2021, but hey, it’s the first working day of the year and for now, those falling U.S. real yields and the positive risk mood can drag the dollar lower for a while yet.”

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China delistings threaten $144 billion U.S. fundraising boom

EconJan 05. 2021A pedestrian walks past a China Mobile store in Hong Kong on Jan. 4, 2021. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Roy Liu.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Gregor Stuart Hunter

For more than two decades Chinese companies have turned to the U.S. stock market for capital and international prestige, raising at least $144 billion from some of the world’s largest investors.

Now this pillar of China’s integration with the global financial system is increasingly under threat.

The latest blow arrived on New Year’s Eve, when the New York Stock Exchange said it would delist three state-owned telecom companies to comply with Donald Trump’s November order barring U.S. investments in Chinese firms determined to be owned or controlled by the military. It’s the first time an American exchange has removed a Chinese company as a direct result of rising geopolitical tensions under the outgoing Trump administration.

While the impact on China Mobile and its two peers is likely to be minimal given the bulk of their shares trade in Hong Kong, the delistings underscore the risks for both Chinese and U.S. companies as tensions between the superpowers simmer. China’s largest offshore oil producer fell in Hong Kong on Monday amid speculation its U.S. shares may enter the cross-hairs next. Trump signed legislation with bipartisan support last month that could kick more Chinese firms off U.S. exchanges unless American regulators can review their financial audits.

“There is bound to be a cost to Chinese companies from being shut out of the U.S. or being delisted,” said George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and author of “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy.” A listing in the U.S. “looks a less attractive proposition nowadays, particularly if you’re a state-owned enterprise with close links to the People’s Liberation Army or internal security,” Magnus said.

The worry for U.S. companies is that their access to China’s vast economy could be curtailed in any escalation of tit-for-tat sanctions. Wall Street banks are particularly keen to see a ratcheting down of tensions after gaining unprecedented scope to operate in China last year. China’s securities regulator responded to the delistings by calling them groundless and “not a wise move,” though it didn’t outline any plans to retaliate.

NYSE said it will suspend trading in the American depositary shares of China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom Hong Kong before Jan. 11. In his executive order, Trump said the companies were among those directly supporting the Chinese military, intelligence and security apparatuses and aiding in their development and modernization.

Read more on the delisting process here.

China Unicom and China Mobile said they’re reviewing ways to protect their “lawful rights.” China Telecom said it’s considering options to “safeguard the legitimate interests of the company.”

The affected shares are worth less than 20 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) and account for at most 2.2% of the total shares in each company, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Jan. 3, adding that the companies are well positioned to handle any fallout.

China Mobile was among the nation’s first major companies to sell shares in the U.S., part of a “red chip” boom in 1997 that fizzled as the Asian financial crisis took hold. The IPO performed poorly on its debut, but nonetheless heralded a flood of Chinese listings in the U.S. over the coming decades.

The combined market value of China-domiciled companies with at least a portion of their shares traded in the U.S. now stands at upwards of $1.9 trillion, a list that includes blue-chip names from Alibaba Group to NetEase and JD.com. Chinese companies raised a record $36 billion from U.S. initial public offerings and follow-on share sales in 2020, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Companies backed by international venture capital firms often prefer U.S. listings to those in China, which are subject to the nation’s capital controls.

While the figures suggest many companies have shrugged off the risk of delistings, others have been making backup plans. Alibaba, JD.com and NetEase are among those that have added secondary listings in Hong Kong since late 2019.

Speculation that more may follow suit sent shares of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing up 4% to a record on Monday. Oft-cited candidates for secondary listings include Pinduoduo, a fast-growing e-commerce company that listed in the U.S. in 2018, and Baidu, the search engine operator that debuted on the Nasdaq in 2005.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has also been trying to boost his country’s domestic equity markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a raft of recent reforms to attract tech companies that had historically flocked to New York. Jack Ma’s Ant Group was due to become the highest-profile addition to Shanghai’s much-touted Star board, until the IPO was abruptly shelved by regulators in November. The outlook for further delistings may depend in large part on how U.S.-China relations evolve after president-elect Joe Biden steps into the White House later this month. While Xi said in a congratulatory message to Biden in November that he hopes to “manage differences” and focus on cooperation between the world’s two largest economies, few expect tensions to ease anytime soon.

“We don’t know as to how the Biden administration will pick up the baton that’s been left by the Trump administration,” Oxford University’s Magnus said. “There will certainly be a transition cost to China if the mood in the U.S. remains sour.”

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Stocks slump on virus spike before Georgia runoff

EconJan 05. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric

Volatility gripped financial markets, spurring a stock sell-off amid concern that a surge in global coronavirus cases could crimp the nascent economic recovery. Traders were also jittery ahead of Tuesday’s runoff elections in Georgia, which could determine whether Democrats have control of Congress to push President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

While equities pared a slide that drove major U.S. benchmarks down more than 2% earlier Monday, the S&P 500 was still on track for its biggest slump in almost 10 weeks. Giants Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sank at least 2.4%, Boeing Co. weighed on the Dow Jones industrial average after an analyst downgrade, and Tesla Inc. climbed after coming close to meeting its vehicle-deliveries goal. The Cboe Volatility Index — a gauge of expected price swings for the S&P 500 known as the VIX — was poised for its biggest surge since September.

Global coronavirus infections topped 85 million, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposing a third lockdown across England and Japan considering another state of emergency for the Tokyo area. Daily cases in the U.S. soared to a record of nearly 300,000 following the New Year holiday, and an easier-to-spread variant detected for the first time last week could intensify the surge. Meanwhile, the nonstop political drama of 2020 is bleeding into the first week of 2021 — with a pivotal election in Georgia, promises of protests in the streets and President Donald Trump’s dragged-out fight over the November vote threatening to tear apart the Republican Party.

“Equity markets will remain sensitive to developments tied to the pandemic that have held the U.S. and global economy hostage for nearly a year,” John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, wrote in a note. “A nearer hurdle for the markets to consider will be the outcome of the runoff elections for two seats in the U.S. Senate taking place in Georgia. Should the Democrats win both seats, we expect the S&P 500 to become vulnerable to a downdraft in the neighborhood of 6% to 10%” from the end of 2020.

For Stoltzfus, it appears that equities have priced in a Republican victory in at least one of the two contests tomorrow. He added that “markets prefer that Washington’s Capitol Hill have enough checks and balances in place to keep political power out of just one party’s hands.”

Elsewhere, traders see U.S. inflation averaging at least 2% per year over the coming decade — the first time expectations have climbed that high since 2018. The move came as real yields plumbed record lows. Bitcoin’s rally fizzled out as the famously volatile cryptocurrency sank as much as 17%. Oil dropped as OPEC+ talks were unexpectedly suspended on Monday after a majority of members, including Saudi Arabia, opposed Russia’s proposal for a February supply hike.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 decreased 1.5% at 4 p.m.EST.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7%.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5%.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.1%.

The euro increased 0.2% to $1.2244.

The Japanese yen was little changed at 103.17 per dollar.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed one basis point to 0.92%.

Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to -0.60%.

Britain’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.173%.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index advanced 0.7%.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.5% to $47.31 a barrel.

Gold rose 2.4% to $1,943.38 an ounce.

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Govt to launch more relief packages as Covid surges to record high

EconJan 05. 2021Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha

By The Nation

The government is seeking measures to combat the economic impact of the new Covid-19 outbreak, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said on Monday.

Prayut spoke after the daily infection rate rose to 745 cases, the highest since the virus outbreak early last year.

The PM expressed concern over the impact on the 28 provinces under “maximum controls” after being hit by more than 50 cases. Provincial governors would have to decide on what restrictions were appropriate for the Covid-19 situation in their province, said Prayut.

Responding to calls from businesses to extend suspension of debt repayments, Prayut said the existing debt holiday had not yet ended. Many businesses are still struggling from the impact of the first outbreak, though some had resumed repaying debts to banks before the new surge in cases.

The PM said the fresh outbreak called for new measures for which the government would have to find funds. 

“If we can’t find the funding, it will be over,” he added.

Meanwhile the parliamentary committee responsible for monitoring Bt1 trillion of Covid-relief borrowing will convene on Tuesday for a meeting with Finance Ministry, Bank of Thailand and State Council officials.

Committee spokesman Akadet Wongpitakroj said it wants to amend the Covid relief emergency decree to ease conditions attached to Bt500 billion in soft loans to support small businesses. The amendment was needed because businesses have found it difficult to access the loans, he said.

Meanwhile, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO), said the government has Bt400 billion left of the Bt1 trillion in borrowing to fund Covid-relief projects. The PDMO said the government had borrowed about Bt600 billion so far.

The Cabinet approved borrowing of Bt510 billion for Covid-relief last year. The PDMO received Bt370 billion of that money and used most of it (Bt348 billion) to relieve people’s financial burdens, said PDMO director general Patricia Mongkhonvanit. 

The Cabinet also approved Bt130 million for economic recovery projects in 2020, of which Bt34 billion went to the PDMO, she added

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Thai stock exchange defies virus to rise almost 1.5%

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,468.24 on Monday, up 18.89 points or 1.30 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt89.20 billion with an index high of 1,468.27 and a low of 1,425.48.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities predicted the day’s index would fall to between 1,420 and 1,435 after the government imposed maximum controls in 28 provinces to curb the Covid-19 outbreak.

“The index will also be under pressure from its tight valuation,” he said.

He advised investors to follow the government’s virus-control measures, December’s Purchasing Manager’s Index for China, Europe and the US, and the US Senate election in Georgia, which will decide whether Democrats gain a majority in Congress.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were GPSC, DELTA, EA, IVL, PTT, STGT, CPF, KBANK, CPALL and AOT.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.95 or 1.96 per cent to $49.47 per barrel, while gold rose by $40.20 or 2.12 per cent, to $1,935.30 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 27,258.38, down 185.79 points or 0.68 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,502.96, up 29.89 points or 0.86 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,827.47, up 356.79 points or 2.47 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 27,472.81, up 241.68 points or 0.89 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,944.45, up 70.98 points or 2.47 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 14,902.03, up 169.50 points or 1.15 per cent.

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Gold makes big gains at the start of New Year as dollar weakens

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold surged by Bt200 per baht weight in morning trade on Monday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.28am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,050 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,150 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt26,560.32 and Bt27,650, respectively.

At close on Saturday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt26,850 per baht weight and selling price Bt26,950 while gold ornaments were Bt26,363.24 and Bt27,450, respectively.

Spot gold price moved to US$1,918 (Bt57,363) per ounce in the morning in line with the weakening dollar.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong gold price surged by HK$180 to $17,680 (Bt68,206) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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Baht rises on dollar sales due to Fed’s fiscal policy

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Nation

The baht strengthened to 29.90 to the US dollar due to mass sell-offs of the dollar on Monday.

Kasikorn Research Centre’s research executive Kanchana Chokpaisansilp said the baht is moving in line with other regional currencies, adding that the dollar was pressured by the US Federal Reserve’s move to ease its monetary policy.

She expected the Thai currency to move between 29.90 and 30.10, advising investors to follow the global Covid-19 situation and the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index for December of China, Europe and the US.

Meanwhile, senior director of the chief investment office at SCB Securities, Jitipol Puksamatanan, said the dollar was pressured by the financial market’s risk-on state as the UK pound sterling and Australian dollar were strengthened.

He added that the US 10-year treasury yield stood at 0.91 per cent, but gold price rose over US$1,900 per ounce.

“However, we expect investors to be cautious during the first week of this year in response to the economic slowdown and several countries’ lockdowns to curb Covid-19,” he said, adding that the Dollar Index was expected to move between 89.4 and 90.4 points this week.

He advised investors to follow the US dollar inflation in December, the Senate election in Georgia and labour market data in December.

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SET slumps on first trading morning of the New Year

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index fell by 20.47 points, or 1.41 per cent, to 1,428.88 in the morning session on Monday.

An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fall to between 1,420 and 1,435 due to uncertainty over the Covid-19 situation in Thailand as the government had imposed an emergency in 28 provinces to curb the virus, causing an impact on economic activities and investor confidence.

“Besides, the index would be under pressure from its tight valuation,” he said.

He advised investors to follow the government’s move to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index in December of China, Europe and US and the US Senate election in Georgia, which will decide whether Democrats will gain a majority in the Congress or not.

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎ PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP and IVL, which benefit from rising oil price and improved fourth-quarter performance.

▪︎ PSL, TTA and RCL, which would benefit from the rise in Baltic Dry Index.

▪︎ TQM, BLA, STGT, AJ, PTL, SYNEX and COM7, which benefit from the Covid-19 outbreak.

The SET Index closed at 1,449.35 on December 30, 2020, down 12.60 points or 0.86 per cent. Transactions, meanwhile, totalled Bt87.54 billion with an index high of 1,479.04 and a low of 1,445.36.

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Targeted project bolsters some low-income D.C. families with cash payment

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Washington Post · Joe Heim · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, PERSONAL-FINANCE 

Basic-income/WASHINGTON – The $5,500 arrived in the middle of August with no strings attached. For Zabria Proctor, it was a godsend. The rent was due. The car loan and insurance needed paying. Bills were piling up. The fridge was often close to bare.

The pandemic had cost Proctor her job as a bus driver for special-needs children in Prince George’s County. Her husband’s work as a car detailer dried up quickly. What little money they had saved soon evaporated as well.

Like millions of low-income American families, the couple were brought to the brink by the economic devastation wrought by the coronavirus. Unlike most of those families, Proctor received at least a temporary lifeline with the cash infusion.

“Psychologically, it was a huge burden off my shoulders,” said Proctor, 30, who lives in a one-bedroom apartment in District of Columbia with her husband and two children. “It was a huge sigh of relief to pay down some debt and to not have to say to my son that he can’t have a snack because we have to save food for dinner.”

The money was not a random act of kindness delivered by a good Samaritan. It was part of an organized effort by four nonprofit groups in the District to create a short-term guaranteed basic income for some of the neediest families in the city. Each household would receive $1,100 a month for five months or a $5,500 lump payment to help with bills, pay for rent and food, or use however they saw fit.

As the pandemic pushed many already struggling families into poverty, the cash payment to the 353 families participating in the Thrive East of the River program was an effort to stabilize them and their community. Now, five months after the money was provided, the organizations involved with the program are beginning to assess its effects.

“We’ve been really pleased with the results,” said Scott Kratz, director of 11th Street Bridge Park, which has coordinated with Martha’s Table, Bread for the City and the Far Southeast Family Strengthening Collaborative to raise $3.6 million so far from foundations, individuals and corporations for the project. There will be an additional 47 households enrolled by the end of January, and organizers hope to raise an additional $500,000 to assist more families. According to the Urban Institute, the project appears to be the largest payment of short-term private emergency cash relief ever offered in the United States.

“The immediate impact of putting cash, nonconditional cash, directly in the hands of families that need it has really served its purpose, and that’s because the families are going to be in the best position to figure out how to spend the money,” Kratz said.

The organizations also administer the program and work with recipients to help them with groceries and accessing benefits such as tax credit applications and health care, including mental health resources. A key component of the project is that recipients are also provided financial counseling and advice on how to make the best use of the funds they’ve been given.

While some of the recipients have used the money to pay off pressing bills, others are making down payments on a home purchase or starting their own small business, Kratz said. And many have used it to help other community members in need. One woman who received the cash used some of it to regularly make and deliver meals to senior citizens.

“What I find really interesting is that there is a common thread where, yes, the participants are using it for themselves and the immediate needs of their families. But they’re also giving back to their broader community,” Kratz said. “It’s just sort of this remarkable generosity, particularly for folks that don’t have a lot.”

Andrea Richardson, 31, has not had an easy go of it the past few years. She spent half of 2019 living in a shelter with her daughter, who was 6 at the time. Richardson says she tried to shield her daughter from the reality of their desperate situation.

“She’s very resilient and just goes with the flow,” Richardson said. “As far as I know, she didn’t really see the scope of everything because I just told her we were going to mommy’s school at night.”

Richardson and her daughter moved into their apartment in December 2019, but before she could find work the virus struck, schools closed and Richardson needed to stay home full time. She received food stamps and Medicaid, and her apartment was partially subsidized. She also worked some odd jobs during the summer, but without a regular income there was no money to pay for any extras.

The $5,500 allowed her to pay off some debt and improve her credit rating. She bought clothes and school supplies for her daughter. Some she has saved. The money gave her something else as well.

“It’s been very encouraging during the time when I just felt very down and depressed and not really knowing where to turn to next,” Richardson said. “OK, all the world’s not crazy. There’s still some togetherness. There’s still support. There’s still people that think about, you know, people like me.”

Mary Bogle, principal research associate at the Urban Institute, has been working with Thrive to assess the project’s effectiveness.

“The goals have always been to alleviate crisis, stabilize people through the pandemic, and then move folks to economic mobility, which is what the mission of these organizations is in the first place,” Bogle said.

As the pandemic has stretched on and worsened in ways that exceeded most expectations, Bogle wonders what long-term effect the $5,500 cash disbursement could have.

“The Great Recession wiped out a lot of the gains we had made in closing the wealth gap between Black and White Americans. And so I think the pandemic story on that issue has yet to be told,” she said. “Will there be gains that could last in helping people out of poverty, just from stimulus, et cetera, with something like the $5,500 that Thrive has added? Will we see people actually moving into mobility?”

The answers to those questions remain unknown, but organizers are encouraged by preliminary results and anecdotal data. And a cash transfer without a byzantine list of rules and regulations for how it must be used is a promising approach, its supporters say.

“They did the right thing by letting people make their own choices because people will move themselves out of poverty if you give them a chance to,” Bogle said. “I mean, you take away all these gates that we’ve built into our system to provide so-called help, people find their own way out of poverty.”

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Finance Ministry focuses on three areas to revive Thai economy

EconJan 04. 2021

By The Nation

The Finance Ministry this year will have three areas of focus to revive Thailand’s economy from the Covid-19 pandemic fallout, ministry spokesperson Kulaya Tantitemit said.

First, the ministry will urgently push for economic revival through speeding up budget disbursement and state spending. The ministry also would streamline the tax structure to fit well with the economic and social change, added Kulaya, who also serves as acting director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.

Second, the ministry will adjust the country’s economic structure by seeking ways to promote investment in new technologies, such as the next generation automotive, digital business and comprehensive medical business. This will enable Thailand to move to offer products and services with high economic value.

The ministry will also push for the revision of rules to increase its own performance in providing services to the public.

She added that one challenge this year would be how to restore Thailand’s economic growth to the pre-Covid-19 era. The management of macroeconomic policy in the next step would have to take into account the prevention of a second wave of the outbreak and the equitable distribution of the anti-virus vaccine.