#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET expected to run into headwinds in last quarter

EconSep 28. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is expected to face volatility during the fourth quarter of this year due to the US presidential election and the SET’s zero plus tick rule, experts said.

Tisco Securities explained that the outlook for the Thai stock market this year was gloomy, especially during the first quarter when the SET fell from the highest at 1,850 in the previous year to the lowest at 969. The index then rebounded to 1,400 in the second quarter before falling to 1,250 last week. The index this year still contracted by approximately 20 per cent compared to the previous year.

Considering transactions so far, foreign investors made net sales of Bt270 billion, but individual and institutional investors made net buys of Bt200 billion and Bt67.5 billion, respectively.

Apichat Poobunjirdkul, Tisco Securities’ senior director, expected the SET to fall at the beginning of the fourth quarter due to domestic and international negative factors.

“Domestic factors include risk of political unrest when student-led protesters hold a big political rally in October this year and extension of the state of emergency, while international factors include the US presidential election, Covid-19 outbreak, and delay in the rollout of US economic stimulus measures,” he said.

“These factors will cause a decline in economic data and lead to mass sell-offs of stocks in the next two months.”

Meanwhile, he expected the index to rebound later in the fourth quarter, as the US presidential election would be over and cash flow direction would be more visible, while a Covid-19 vaccine would be ready and the improvement in listed companies’ profit are expected to be seen in the first quarter of next year, resulting in confidence among investors.

For investment strategy, he said investors should buy stocks with growth potential when the index falls to 1,250, such as food, healthcare and small-cap shares.

“The securities company aims to cut the index forecast for the end of this year to between 1,250 and 1,300 points from the current 1,400, while the index low and high are expected to be at 1,200 and 1,300, respectively,” he added.

Koraphat Vorachet, director of research and investment at Capital Nomura Securities, expected the SET to face volatility at the beginning of the fourth quarter, setting the index’s support line at between 1,150 and 1,200 and the resistance line at 1,330.

He said the market is preparing to deal with risks from the SET’s move to use the zero plus tick rule that allows investors to short-sell stocks at a price equal to the trading price from October 1 onwards.

“Currently, the SET uses an uptick rule that forces investors to short-sell stocks at a price higher than the trading price to mitigate volatility in the index, which helped reduce the value of short sales to Bt500 million per day from Bt3 billion per day before the Covid-19 outbreak,” he explained.

“After the zero plus tick rule comes into effect, the value of short sales is expected to be equal to the value before the Covid-19 outbreak, but it depends on Thai stock market fundamentals and the country’s economic recovery.”

He said after the result of the US presidential election is known, the Covid-19 outbreak and Covid-19 vaccine development would influence the SET from November to December, adding that there was no sign indicating foreign investors would invest in the Thai stock market.

“It depends on the economic recovery and listed companies’ performance whether Thai and other Asian indices would gain positive sentiment from foreign investors’ asset allocation after the US presidential election,” he said.

For investment in the last quarter of this year, he advised investors to pick stocks whose performance is expected to improve, such as export, food, beverages and electronic parts group.

“Also, investors should invest only 25 per cent in stocks during the market correction at the beginning of the fourth quarter,” he said.

He added that a few institutional investors would engage in window dressing at the end of the third quarter because they often do that in the middle of the year and the year-end.

Kitichan Sirisukarcha, from CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand), expected the Thai stock market to face low volatility between 1,200 and 1,330 in the fourth quarter and move to 1,280 at the year-end because the market has always responded to positive and negative sentiments quicker than other markets, adding that listed companies’ third-quarter performance would be better than the previous quarter.

Also, he expected foreign investors’ net sales to hit a new high from the current high of Bt287 billion in 2018 due to lack of positive sentiment.

As investment strategy, he advised short-term investors to speculate on profits, and long-term investors to buy shares after the US presidential election.

“If the Covid-19 situation improves, we recommend buying retail, oil refinery and hospital shares,” he said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Negative factors likely to influence baht, SET next week

EconSep 26. 2020

By The Nation

Various domestic and international negative factors would pressure the baht and stock market next week, experts said.

The baht weakened against the dollar this week (September 21-25), as domestic and international factors caused uncertainty among investors.

An analyst at CIMB Thai Bank expected the baht next week to move between 31.30 and Bt31.80 against the dollar.

“Next week, the Bank of Thailand will report the country’s economic indicators in August, while there are many factors that investors will need to follow, such as the Covid-19 situation that has not been resolved, US politics with the presidential election approaching, and trade negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union,” the analyst said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index on Friday (September 25) closed at 1,244.94, down 2.52 points or 0.20 per cent, while total transactions amounted to Bt45.62 billion.

An analyst at Kasikorn Securities expected the index next week to move between 1,238 and 1,280 due to lack of new positive sentiment both domestic and international.

“Meanwhile, the index would be under pressure from the delay in the development of a Covid-19 vaccine and commercial banks’ third-quarter performance,” the analyst said.

Gold price on Saturday was quoted at US$1,860.50 per ounce, while the price in Thailand was Bt27,850 per baht weight.

An analyst at YLG Bullion International advised investors to beware of mass sell-offs if the price cannot rise over the resistance line between $1,876 and $1,890 per ounce.

“Investors can sell some of the metal to reduce risk and buy back when the price drops to the support line between $1,847 per ounce,” the analyst said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Strengthening dollar pulls gold price down

EconSep 26. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold dropped by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade on Saturday (September 26), the Gold Traders Association reported.

At 9.06am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,750 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,850 while gold ornaments were priced at Bt27,257.68 and Bt28,350, respectively.

At close on Friday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt27,850 per baht weight and selling price Bt27,950 while gold ornaments were Bt27,348.64 and Bt28,450, respectively.

Comex (Commodity Exchange) gold price to be delivered in December dropped by US$10.6, or 0.56 per cent, closing at $1,866.3 (Bt58,999.64) per ounce on Friday.

Gold closed in negative territory due to the strengthening of the dollar, which made the metal price high for investors holding other currencies.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Oil dips in wake of renewed concerns over virus surge

EconSep 26. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Andres Guerra Luz, Alex Longley

Oil fell as growing concerns over another wave of the coronavirus pandemic weighs on the outlook for demand.

Futures dropped as much as 1.5% in New York on Friday and are set for a nearly 3% weekly decline. The U.K. added London to its watch list of potential pandemic hot spots, compounding worries Europe may face tighter restrictions as cases surge across the continent. At the same time, the market is contending with returning supply. Oil traders have reported a sharp increase in Iraqi exports for next month, while output from Libya has shown signs of rising this week.

The spreading coronavirus “is really the key weight on this market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. With flare-ups in Europe and parts of the U.S., “none of it’s good for the oil market and the demand outlook.”

Still, oil’s weekly loss has been stemmed by the prospect of resuming stimulus talks in the U.S. and a more optimistic demand view from some analysts. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said oil consumption is currently just above 93 million barrels a day and may rise 1.8 million a day to the end of the year. That said, a virus surge in the U.K. and France is deepening short-term risks.

“This month has not been kind to the oil market,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Stephen Brennock. “Economic growth anxieties are likely to persist, which in turn will keep oil prices under the cosh.”

On the supply side, OPEC has allowed Iraq to pump more crude next month by giving it extra time to make up for breaching its quota this year. But the puzzle for the market is whether an increase in cargoes means Iraq could exceed its new limit of 3.6 million barrels a day.

In a sign of just how damaging the virus has been to oil demand, the industry’s largest tankers next year will earn 8% less than they were anticipating back in May, according to a survey of shipping analysts by Bloomberg. That comes as nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia have drastically scaled back output, draining the hoard at sea and diminishing the flow of cargoes.

There have also been market signals of growing weakness in the global Brent benchmark this week. On Thursday, the crude traded at its smallest premium to U.S. WTI since May. It’s also at its weakest to the Middle Eastern Dubai benchmark in four months.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Stocks rally as dip buying intensifies after rout

EconSep 26. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Rita Nazareth, Claire Ballentine

Stocks climbed as dip buyers appeared after the market slide, tempering a cloudy outlook for a U.S. stimulus package.

Tech companies led gains in the S&P 500, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 2.3%. Real-estate, industrial and consumer-discretionary shares rose more than 1.4%, while energy producers almost erased losses. Boeing surged on a news report the top U.S. aviation regulator plans to test-fly the grounded 737 Max on Wednesday. Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises rallied after being upgraded at Barclays, which said the “worst is in the past” for cruise companies. The benchmark gauge still posted its fourth straight weekly drop — the longest streak since August 2019. The dollar advanced.

Equities fell earlier Friday as a last-ditch attempt by Democrats and the White House to restart negotiations on new stimulus drew skepticism in Congress that a deal could be reached and written into law by the November election. There’s a perception that the two sides still remain far apart on the size of a relief package. Amid mounting signs that the pace of recovery will ebb with an uptick in global coronavirus cases and lack of further government aid, investors have once again turned back to the companies flush with cash and tested in times of crisis.

“If I were to be unsure about a stimulus package, unsure about whether there will be a vaccine, there’s no better thing than to hide out in the megacap tech stocks because they work in an economy-closed scenario,” said Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 increased 1.6% at 4 p.m. EDT.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.3%.

– The euro dipped 0.4% to $1.1625.

– The Japanese yen depreciated 0.2% to 105.61 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys decreased one basis point to 0.65%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to 0.189%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to -0.53%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.5% to $40.12 a barrel.

– Gold depreciated 0.3% to $1,862.66 an ounce.

– Silver weakened 1% to $22.91 per ounce.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET continues slide as Thailand edges toward political turmoil

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index continued its week-long slide on Friday, closing at 1,244.94, down 2.52 points or 0.20 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt45.62 billion with an index high of 1,256.40 and a low of 1,241.66.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to fluctuate between 1,240 and 1,255 despite a rise in other regional stock markets.

Domestic unrest after Parliament delayed charter-change motions, coupled with continuing outflow of foreign funds, would pressure the index, he said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were AOT, CPF, MINT, PTT, STGT, KBANK, CPALL, STA, PTTEP and GPSC.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.19 or 0.47 per cent to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped by $2.50 or 0.13 per cent, to $1,874.40 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 23,204.62, up 116.80 points or 0.51 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,219.42, down 3.76 points or 0.12 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 12,814.17, down 2.43 points or 0.019 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 23,235.42, down 75.65 points or 0.32 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,278.79, up 6.09 points or 0.27 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,232.91, down 31.47 points or 0.26 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

PTT to subsidise staff travel in move to boost tourism

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

PTT Plc has set aside a budget of Bt18 million to subsidise local holidays for its staff as part of a move to boost the country’s flagging tourism sector, said president and CEO Auttapol Rerkpiboon.

PTT will subsidise 50 per cent of domestic trips for 3,800 staff, capped at Bt5,000 per person.

Staff must show receipts for accommodation, food and travel tickets to get the subsidy. The programme runs from next month until December.

Companies in PTT group will launch similar programmes soon, added Auttappol.

The tourism industry, a key engine of Thailand’s economy, is suffering severe impacts from the lack of foreign arrivals due to the Covid-19 travel ban.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold may rise to $2,000 by year end, expert says

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

Gold price faces short term correction but has the chance of hitting US$2,000 again at the end of this year, an expert at YLG Bullion International (YLG) said on Friday (September 25).

The price of the precious metal dropped by over $100 per ounce from $1,950 to $1,850 over four days from Monday.

Pawan Navawattanasap, YLG’s chief executive officer, said the price of gold had dropped sharply at the beginning of this week due to investors’ mass sell-offs to take profits after several mutual funds boosted their investment in the precious metal.

She said the price at the beginning of this year was $1,517 per ounce and hit the highest at $2,075 per ounce, generating profits of over 22.5 per cent, which is higher than returns from other assets.

“Normally, investors know that the price of gold rises when stock prices fall, but this year it is completely different because mutual funds increased their investment in the precious metal. This caused mass sell-offs in gold because mutual funds often take profit from the metal to compensate for the fall in stock price,” she said.

She added that many analysts expected the gold price to hit $2,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of this year as demand for the precious metal in India and China often rises during this time, adding that the price of gold is expected to hit $2,200 per ounce next year.

“Factors that boost the price of gold are central banks’ relaxed monetary policies, governments’ moves to stimulate the economy and the US-China conflict, while factors that pressure the metal price are Covid-19 vaccine development progress, signs of the US economic recovery and mass sell-offs to compensate for loss in other assets,” she added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SCG Packaging’s IPO expected to shake up the market

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

An analyst at Asia Plus Securities expects institutional investors to sell stocks worth Bt23 billion to buy SCG Packaging (SCGP) shares, resulting in market volatility.

SCGP will make an initial public offering (IPO) of up to Bt1.12 billion with shares priced between Bt33.50 and Bt35 from September 28 to October 7. Meanwhile, cornerstone investors and initial purchasers will make payments for buying shares from October 9 to 14.

The analyst reckoned that institutional investors will sell off their stocks before SCGP is listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The 18 institutional investors, comprising 14 Thai asset management companies and four overseas asset management companies, have the right to subscribe to 676.53 million shares worth Bt23.7 billion.

“According to previous statistics, SET50 will fall up to 6 per cent in one month before large-cap stocks start making transactions in the stock market, while the price of stocks in the same group will drop by up to 10 per cent,” he said.

“Over the past three days, the largest petrochemical stock price dropped sharply after SCGP announced it was selling IPO shares.”

Since SCGP is a large-cap stock with a market capitalisation of around Bt150 billion and has the chance of being listed in SET50 or SET100 instantly, the analyst expects Thanachart Capital (TACP) with a market capitalisation of Bt35 billion to be delisted from SET50 or the Erawan Group (ERW) with a market capitalisation of Bt80 billion delisted from SET100.

“The securities company expects SCGP’s revenue this year to be at Bt6.99 billion, up 32.8 per cent year on year, while the company’s profit is expected to be Bt8.33 billion, up 19.1 per cent year on year,” he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Investors advised against large-cap stocks as SET to be on a downhill slope

EconSep 25. 2020

By The Nation

Experts are advising investors to avoid large-cap stocks as Thailand’s stock crisis will be a prolonged one.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Thursday (September 24) closed at its lowest for the day at 1,241.52, down 22.49 per cent compared to its previous close.

The index has fallen over 15 per cent from its highest point at 1,454 points in June this year,

Dr Niwet Hemwachirawarakorn, a well-known high-value investor, said investors have realised that the current situation is not beneficial for the stock market, because the Covid-19 outbreak has not been resolved and the economic forecast is gloomy.

“Most investors, especially foreigners have given up on the current situation and sold their stocks. This crisis is similar to previous crises when stock indices fluctuated at the beginning and then fell sharply after investors realised that the crisis was worse than expected. Hence, it is difficult to see a V-shaped recovery, while share prices will fluctuate up to three times,” he said.

He added that it was tough to tell when the index will rise again because the current economic direction is difficult to predict, especially in relation to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the market is expected to remain under pressure until the crisis is over.

“Long-term investors should wait because the crisis is not over yet. The economy will truly recover once the Covid-19 crisis is resolved and people were allowed to travel around the world freely,” he said.

He advised investors to buy shares that are still able to operate business for long-term investment instead of large-cap stocks that rely on economic recovery or are attractive to foreign and institutional investors.

Meanwhile, Nuttachart Mekmasin, assistant managing director at Trinity Securities, said the Bank of Thailand’s move to cut the country’s gross domestic product forecast in 2021, especially in tourism and domestic consumption, will pressure the market in the short term.

He said there were only export stocks that performed better than other groups, adding that export is expected to contract 8 per cent this year from the previous forecast of a 10 per cent contraction, though it is expected to rise to 5 per cent next year from economic recovery and weakening baht.

“We advise investors to hold cash when the SET uptick rule expires because we expect the index to fall to 1,200 points. They should avoid buying large-cap stocks until the index falls below 1,200. Large-cap stocks expected to recover are energy, petrochemical, bank and property groups,” he said.