#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Experts spy value in small, mid-cap Thai stocks

EconSep 11. 2020

By The Nation

Experts have advised investors to lean towards Thai stocks in small- and mid-cap companies, which are forecast to perform better than large-cap stocks.

Over the past eight months, smaller stocks on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) have outperformed their large-cap counterparts, despite sharp drops driven by the Covid-19 crisis in the first quarter this year.

In the second quarter, the smaller-cap MAI and sSET indices rose 4.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively, while the SET and SET100 fell 3.4 and 7.3 per cent.

When market growth rate is low, investors will pay premiums for stocks that show grow potential, said Trinity Securities assistant managing director Nuttachart Mekmasin.

In terms of three aspects – fundamentals, share value and liquidity – small and mid-cap stocks had earned stronger market sentiment than large-caps,” he said.

Brokerages had also cut their profit forecasts for large-cap stocks more than for small- and mid-cap stocks, he added.

“In 2021, we expect returns on sSET stocks to rise by three times compared to a 20 per cent rise for SET50 stocks,” Nuttachart said.

In terms of share value, he said the price to earnings ratio (P/E) of SET50 stocks is still higher than sSET stocks.

In terms of liquidity, he said the money supply (or M2) had increased significantly since March this year, while individual investors continued to make net buys in stocks every day.

“Increased M2 money supply is often in line with trading by individual investors and growth in small- and mid-cap stocks, so we believe that small- and mid-cap stocks will perform well in the fourth quarter of this year,” he said. Meanwhile after large-cap stocks’ recovery, investors would be disappointed by their third-quarter performance.

Sunthorn Thongthip, Kasikorn Securities chief of analysis, said the price of smaller stocks would rise faster after they were hit by mass sell-offs during the Covid-19 crisis.

“Also, the price of small-cap stocks often increases when the market rises, as investors are ready to take more risks with remaining liquidity,” he said.

As such, the price of small-cap stocks would increase until the US Federal Reserve decided to tighten monetary policy, he added.

However, “the Fed will maintain interest rates at near zero until 2022 and loosen monetary policy to stimulate the US economy, so we expect the price of small-cap stocks to increase more than large-caps,” he said.

“Therefore, mass sell-offs of small-cap stocks followed by positive Covid-19 vaccine news will enable investors to buy back these shares,” he added.

On small- and mid-cap stocks, Trinity Securities advised buying shares whose profit will increase until 2021 or perform better than 2019, while Kasikorn Securities advised investing in companies unaffected by the Covid-19 fallout and benefitting from a Covid-19 vaccine.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Worries over US-China trade war pulls down SET

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,290.89 today (September 10), down 2.51 points or 0.19 per cent. The volume of total transactions stood at Bt42.183 billion with an index high of 1,298.33 and a low of 1,286.15.

During the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expected the index to rebound to between 1,300 and 1,305 points before falling in response to a rise in the US Dow Jones Index.

“The Dow Jones Index skyrocketed to over 1.6 per cent after investors went in for mass buy-ups of stocks that had dropped sharply, especially in the technology sector,” he said.

“Also, the index gained positive sentiment from the rise oil prices and news that pharmaceutical multinational AstraZeneca will resume its third phase of clinical trials for the Covid-19 vaccine next week.”

The analyst advised investors to buy stocks for speculation as uncertainty related to intensifying US-China trade war and lack of domestic factors will continue pressuring the index.

Top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were SCC, STGT, BAM, CPALL, AOT, PTT, MINT, SUPER, TASCO and CRC.

As of 4.30pm, the price of oil dropped by US$0.49 or 1.29 per cent to $37.56 per barrel, while gold dropped by $0.10 or 0.01 per cent, to $1,954.80 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 23,235.47, up 202.93 points or 0.88 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,234.82, down 19.80 points or 0.61 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 12,742.85, down 118.90 points or 0.92 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 24,313.54, down 155.39 points or 0.64 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,396.48, up 20.67 points or 0.87 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,691.75, up 83.17 points or 0.66 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET volatile from drop in oil price, uncertainty over Covid vaccine

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand was highly volatile in the morning session of Wednesday (September 9) after the price of oil dropped to below US$40 per barrel for the first time in three months and AstraZeneca announced it was postponing the third phase of Covid-19 vaccine clinical trials due to severe side effects.

However, experts said SET technically rebounded in the afternoon session after falling almost 40 points for the first time in three working days. The index closed at 1,293.40, down 0.40 points.

Total transactions amounted to Bt47.5 billion with an index high of 1,295.55 and a low of 1,276.38. Foreign and institutional investors made net sales of Bt812 million and 73.30 million, respectively.

Wikij Tirawannarat, Bualuang Securities’ director of individual customer research, said the Thai stock market will fluctuate sideways and downwards due to domestic and international economic and political situations, especially the upcoming US presidential election.

“Also, trade volume may not rise much because foreign fund managers take a long summer break between September and October every year,” he said.

He advised long-term investors to purchase stocks gradually when the index falls because the economic downturn should be resolved soon.

“For short-term investors, we advise speculating in line with market trends, especially with stocks in SET 50 index. We recommend selling stocks when the index rises by 3-5 per cent and buying stocks when the index falls,” he added.

Meanwhile, Koraphat Vorachet, Capital Nomura Securities’ director of research and investment, said the Thai stock market was currently fluctuating sideways to sideways down due to the lack of positive sentiments to boost investment and international factors.

“We expect the index to fluctuate between 1,270 and 1,301 during this time,” he said.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET rises on mass US tech share buy-ups, rising oil price, more vaccine trials

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 0.78 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 1,294.18 in the morning session today (September 10).

An analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the index to rebound between 1,300 and 1,305 points before falling in response to a rise in the US Dow Jones Index.

“The Dow Jones Index skyrocketed over 1.6 per cent after investors went in for mass buy-ups of stocks with prices that dropped sharply, especially technology ones,” he explained.

“Also, the index gained positive sentiment from a rising oil price and news that AstraZeneca would resume its third phase of Covid-19 vaccine clinical trials next week.”

The analyst advised investors to buy stocks for speculation as uncertainty amid an intensifying US-China trade war and a lack of domestic factors would pressure the index.

He recommended investors buy:

> Stocks whose third-quarter performance would improve, such as TU, Asian, Com7, CHG, PTG and PlanB.

> Electronic shares that benefit from the recovery in technology stocks and the launch of a new iPhone on September 15, such as Hana, Delta, KCE Com7, JMart, Synex, SPVI and CPW.

The SET Index closed at 1,293.40 yesterday, down 0.40 points, or 0.03 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt47.5 billion, with an index high of 1,295.55 points and a low of 1,276.38.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Gold price rises, but US stock market rise casts shadow

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Nation

The price of gold rose by Bt100 per baht weight in morning trade today (September 10), the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.25am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,650 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,750, while gold ornaments cost Bt28,136.96 and Bt29,250, respectively.

At close yesterday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,550 per baht weight and selling price Bt28,650, while gold ornaments cost Bt28,030.84 and Bt29,150, respectively.

The Hong Kong gold price rose by HK$170, opening at $17,990 (Bt72,559.40) per tael this morning, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

The Comex (Commodity Exchange) gold price to be delivered in December rose by US$11.70, or 0.6 per cent, closing at $1,954.90 (Bt61,106.62) per ounce yesterday.

The gold price has risen for two consecutive days from a weakening dollar, making the precious metal an attractive buy. However, the gold price increased in a limited range because of the rise in the US stock index from mass buy-ups in technology shares.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Lawmakers reach little consensus over Fed’s Main Street program

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Washington Post · Rachel Siegel · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, CONGRESS
WASHINGTON – Lawmakers on a top banking panel largely agree that the Federal Reserve’s Main Street lending program has fallen short. But they’re debating whether or how to change the rules and allow the Fed to make more, albeit riskier, loans to struggling businesses.

At a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Wednesday, policymakers differed over whether the Main Street program can be strengthened with a new structure and relaxed loan terms, or if more direct aid from Congress is needed to help companies fighting for survival during the pandemic. 

As of last Thursday, the Main Street lending program had completed $1.2 billion in loans, a fraction of the $600 billion pot.

“I am still concerned that incorporating widespread restrictions in these facilities could render the facilities ineffective and leave businesses and their employees without critical resources they desperately need,” said Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, chairman of the Banking Committee.

The program could have wider reach if the Fed bought 100% of Main Street loans from banks, instead of 95%, according to Jeffrey DeBoer, president of the Real Estate Roundtable, and Hal Scott, president of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, who testified at the hearing. Since the current structure leaves banks with some skin in the game, many lenders have shied away from making riskier deals. DeBoer and Scott also recommended that companies should be given more time before having to pay back the loans.

“The current approach has been tried and found wanting,” Scott said.

Lawmakers also highlighted trouble in the commercial real estate industry, which has taken a beating from lockdown measures and rent deferrals. The Main Street program’s restrictive terms have made it hard for commercial real estate companies to get help, DeBoer said, which has rippling consequences for the broader economy, from jobs to housing to state and local taxes.

A core issue is how much risk the Fed and Treasury Department can take under the Cares Act, since any losses are ultimately covered by taxpayers. In an interview last week, Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that is “completely appropriate” to want to limit the amount of risk to protect taxpayer dollars. But any number of rules on the terms sheet could be relaxed to expand the program’s reach, Rosengren said.

“It’s important for Congress to make clear how much risk they want,” Rosengren told The Washington Post last week. “Right now, it’s easy to say, ‘We want lots of loans.’ But a year and a half from now, people are going to want to know why those loans went bad.”

The number of loans covered by the Fed continues to rise each week; as of Aug. 31, 118 had been bought by the Fed, with businesses in construction, real estate, arts and entertainment, and manufacturing making up some of the largest shares.

At Wednesday’s hearing, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., said that it is “still too soon to call this program a failure” and that it was “entirely possible” that needy businesses are accessing credit elsewhere. Toomey said making the Fed buy 100% of a Main Street loan, instead of 95%, posed “an obvious challenge.”

The current structure is “meant to create an incentive for the banks to do proper underwriting so that there is some limit to the amount of risk that is being taken here,” Toomey said. “The idea was never to lend money to fundamentally insolvent businesses.”

No matter the future of the Main Street program, there’s little expectation that the Fed can heal the economy alone. The Fed can only provide loans, and many businesses cannot afford to go into more debt through the Main Street program.

Yet Congress is divided over another round of stimulus. During the hearing, Democrats pushed for another bill that would include enhanced unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments. Republican committee members focused largely on the Main Street program, and Sen. John Neely Kennedy, R-La., raised questions about how to reduce the government’s debt.

“We are going about this backwards,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the top Democrat on the banking panel. “Every dollar we give to working families goes directly to supporting the real economy.”

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Wall Street snaps back from tech-fueled rout, lifting Dow more than 400 points

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Washington Post · Hamza Shaban · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 
U.S. stocks bounced back Wednesday from a three-day sell-off that sliced 10 percent off the Nasdaq composite and pummeled companies that had largely been resilient during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Dow Jones industrial average had advanced 439.91 points, or 1.6%, to close at 27,940.80. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 67.19 points, or 2.0%, to end at 3,398.96, while the Nasdaq composite jumped 293.87 points, or 2.7%, to settle at 11,141,56.

Technology shares led the rebound, just as they led the three-day sell-off that slashed 10% off the Nasdaq, dragging the tech-centric index into correction territory. Tesla and Apple, two companies that had been battered in recent days after months of tremendous gains, shot up 6.3% and 4.4%, respectively. Amazon and Microsoft both jumped at least 4%, while Facebook climbed more than 1%. (Amazon founder and chief executive Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said the sentiment driving Wednesday’s rally is the same as the one that has driven investors into stocks for the past six months – there are no real alternatives for finding favorable returns, Plus, the Federal Reserve has accommodated Wall Street through its expansive monetary policy. 

“Jay Powell has become Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy and a leprechaun with a pot of gold, all wrapped into one,” she said, referring to the Fed’s chair. “Now that doesn’t mean stocks won’t be volatile and they won’t have their down days. But we have to recognize that the Fed is a powerful force that is likely to drive investors back into equities, especially tech.” 

Analysts say that the multiday sell-off was a healthy sign of the stock market returning to Earth, after an extraordinary run during the initial spread of the virus. The massive gains on Wall Street highlighted the disconnect between soaring valuations and enriched shareholders vs. the broader U.S. economy suffering from historic levels of unemployment and extreme disruptions to operations and daily life.

The S&P and the Nasdaq had set record highs several times over last month. But those gains were largely wiped in three volatile trading days in what has been a historically poor performing month. Though Wednesday’s session delivers at least a temporary reprieve to the frenzied selling, broader economic and political issues will continue to weigh on investors, including trade tensions with China, stalled coronavirus stimulus negotiations and uncertainty over the upcoming election.

Meanwhile, the virus itself continues to kill thousands of Americans every week. At least 187,000 people have died of covid-19-related illnesses, and more than 6.3 million have become infected.

AstraZeneca shares fell 1.7% after the pharmaceutical giant paused the global trial of its coronavirus vaccine candidate after a participant in the United Kingdom suffered what is suspected to be a severe adverse reaction. In a statement, the company said it voluntarily suspended its late-stage trial to determine the cause of the unexplained illness. AstraZeneca is developing the vaccine alongside the University of Oxford, and is one of several drug companies racing to create and vet a way to prevent novel coronavirus infections. The stock fell by 1.4% in the afternoon session.

On Thursday the federal government will report the first glimpse of new unemployment claims for the month of September. Last week, more than 800,000 new claims for unemployment insurance were filed during the week prior, another sign that the pandemic last week is battering the labor market more than five months in to the public health crisis.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Economy to get 1-1.5% boost from latest cash handouts: UTCC

EconSep 10. 2020Thanavat Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) 

By The Nation

The government’s plan to hand out payments of Bt3,000 to 15 million people will boost economic growth in the fourth quarter by an estimated 1-1.5 per cent, according to Thanavat Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

The government has yet to finalise details of the scheme, which is among its new measures to lift the coronavirus-battered economy.

Thanavat said the UTCC expected the Thai economy to contract between 6.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, less than the previous UTCC forecast of 8-10 per cent contraction.

He predicted the economy will post little or zero growth in the first quarter next year before climbing into positive territory in the second quarter if there is no second wave of Covid-19 or severe political tension.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Panel pushes for higher credit guarantee for SMEs

EconSep 10. 2020FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree 

By The Nation

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said it wants the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation to increase its maximum loan guarantee for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) from 30 per cent to 50 per cent so banks are encouraged to give out loans.

The boost in loan guarantee will also give SMEs easier access to soft loans, for which the Bank of Thailand has set aside Bt500 billion.

This issue was discussed on Wednesday (September 9) during a committee meeting, Federation of Thai Industries chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree said.

He added that if SMEs are granted loans now, they will be able to survive and make repayments two years after the end of the Covid-19 outbreak.

He also called on state agencies to speed up the disbursement of payments to SMEs that have completed their state contracts. He said these contractors should be paid within 30 days of completing their jobs, instead of having to wait for two to four months.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET, SEC set to consider reducing trading fees

EconSep 10. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plan to look into the option of cutting stock and futures exchange trading fees.

Pakorn Peetathawatchai, SET president, said operators in the securities business have been calling on the authorities to review the current trading fees.

“We have been discussing this issue with brokers for a long while now, but have not been able to reach a conclusion yet because we have to study its suitability first,” he said.

Meanwhile, SEC officials said they will discuss the issue with SET to alleviate the burden for securities companies as proposed in the quarterly meeting on August 25.

“In line with the current Thai stock market situation, SEC will not increase trading fees,” an official said.

The official added that the SEC currently collects 0.001 per cent of stock trading value, but no more than Bt10 million, while the fees on futures exchange is between 0.01 per cent and 0.10 per cent per contract depending on asset price.

“These regulations have been used since 2017 and are low compared to trading fees in other countries,” the official said.

The SEC staff further explained that SET collects trading fees at 0.005 per cent of trading value, clearing fees at 0.001 per cent of trading value, and securities maintaining fee at Bt1.50 per month for every remaining securities value of Bt1 million, adding that SEC did not set up regulations on fees collected by the SET from brokers.

“SEC is reviewing trading fees in the Thailand Futures Exchange market and taking into account comments from securities businesses,” the official added.

Meanwhile, Pichet Sithi-Amnuai, chair of the Association of Thai Securities Companies, said his association wants SET to cut stock trading fees because brokerage firms’ revenue has dropped even though trading volume has risen.

“Brokers’ commission has continued to drop after liberalisation of the commission-collecting business, resulting in high competition,” he said. “Also, brokerage firms have to bear high costs because they have to pay trading fees to SET.”

However, he said, the association has not set an appropriate level for trading fees, adding that this issue will be discussed with SET and SEC in the future.