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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404352

Ever Given afloat, but Thai business could find itself in rough waters: private sector

EconMar 31. 2021

By The Nation

Despite the massive Ever Given ship being freed from choking the Suez Canal and the smooth flow now of cargo vessels through the vital waterway, the private sector believes the overall problem is not over yet and it won’t be all smooth sailing for exports.

The 400-metre-long Ever Given, one of the five largest cargo ships in the world, had paralysed transport since March 23 by blocking the Suez Canal, a major artery of Asia-Europe freight transport, leaving more than 450 cargo ships stranded at either end of the canal. Experts estimate the blockage caused damage worth around $9.6 billion (over Bt300 billion) per day until March 29, when tug boats with the help of land-based digging machines and a high tide got the huge ship moving again. Transportation experts expect the situation to return to normal and all stranded ships to pass through the waterway in four days.

However, international trade, tax and logistics specialist and chairman of Excellent Business Corporation International Sayan Chanvipaswongse said that although the blockage problem has been resolved, there are still many issues that will follow. Containers that the world is already short on will become more scarce because of the container volume on the now-freed Ever Given, which is more than 18,300, combined with the volume of containers on ships presently waiting to enter and exit the Suez Canal. Hence, delays in container deliveries will only exacerbate the already tight container circulation problem in the system, he explained.

The other problem is the delay in goods deliveries for customers in Europe. If trade partners lose sales opportunities, it might affect production plants in a chain. So if Thai exporters receive money under L/C, they may end up with nothing in hand, he said.

However, if it is a money transfer, there may be discussions with the buyer, in which case the Thai exporter could compensate for the delay in delivery as well as request to pay import tax in the event that the product still has to be delivered.

“Business partners have the right to not accept goods after the scheduled time and leave it to the exporter to pay the freight charge itself, this will be a burden on the exporter,” Sayan said.

Lessons must be learned from this incident, he added. Exporters must be aware of marine cargo insurance, including also having to find additional suppliers in case goods or raw materials need to be imported from Europe to produce products and in turn export these. They may need to find additional suppliers in other parts of the world, such as in the US, China, Japan, South Korea or Asean to mitigate the risk.

Thai National Shippers Council (TNSC) vice president Visit Limlurcha said the Suez Canal incident in the past week has delayed the export of Thai products to Europe.

In 2020, Thai-EU trade (including the UK) was worth more than Bt1.1 trillion, with the Suez Canal being the main passage of goods transport.

Among the top 10 products that Thailand exports to Europe are computer equipment and components, jewellery and accessories, rubber products, air conditioners and components, automobile equipment and components, motor vehicles and related parts, electric circuit boards, processed chicken, machinery and components, and clothing, he said.

“The impact is delayed delivery. Buyers have postponed new orders to wait and see how the situation turns out. From now on, containers will become more scarce. In respect to freight charges, the various fees have not yet been raised,” Visit said.

“However, the TNSC still expects Thai exports this year to expand by 4 per cent as predicted,” he added.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404343

SET perks up a tad, but oil price, rising US bond yield cast shadow

EconMar 31. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 1.87 points or 0.12 per cent to 1,591.40 in the morning session on Wednesday.

A Krungsri Securities analyst forecast the SET index would fluctuate between 1,580 and 1,600 points despite hopes over a US infrastructure plan worth a massive $3 trillion (Bt93.6 trillion).

“The index would be under pressure due to the falling oil price and uncertainty over a rising US bond yield,” he said.

He recommended investors buy:

▪︎ AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AAV, BA, CPN, CRC, Major, BDMS and BH, which benefit from positive news of Covid-19 vaccinations in Thailand.

▪︎ Hana, KCE, TU and CPF, which benefit from the weakening baht.

▪︎ CBG, Ichi, Sappe, RBF, DOD, IP, TACC, Gunkul and Kiss, which benefit from positive news on hemp production and its general use.

The SET Index closed at 1,590.97 on Tuesday, up 7.08 points or 0.45 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt97 billion with an index high of 1,593.52 points and a low of 1,585.06.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404341

Gold price falls for second consecutive day

EconMar 31. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold dropped by Bt150 per baht weight in morning trade on Wednesday, the Gold Traders Association reported. The price has now dropped sharply for two consecutive days.

As of 9.22am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,900 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,000 while gold ornaments cost Bt24,453.08 and Bt25,500, respectively.

At close on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,050 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,150 while gold ornaments cost Bt24,604.68 and Bt25,650, respectively.

The spot gold price dropped to US$1,682 (Bt52,784) per ounce on Wednesday after falling by $28.60 to $1,686 on Tuesday due to a rising US bond yield and strengthening dollar.

The Hong Kong gold price dropped by HK$130 to $15,630 (Bt63,085) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404325

Stocks drop a second day with spending in focus

EconMar 31. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric

Stocks fell for a second day and Treasury yields touched a 14-month high as traders weighed the consequences of more stimulus from the Biden administration.

The utilities, information technology and consumer staples sectors pushed the benchmark S&P 500 lower, though financial shares recovered from Monday’s slide in the wake of the implosion of Archegos Capital Management. Apple Inc. led the Nasdaq Composite into negative territory. The dollar strengthened for a second day and gold slipped below $1,700 per troy ounce. Oil halted a two-day rally before the April 1 meeting of OPEC and its allies.

“The market’s still trying to figure out what the trade is — by that I mean, the stay-at-home stocks were the trade for basically a year,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Now, more people are getting vaccinated, but at the same time, you’re starting to see a rise in cases in many states. So just like that is messy, so is the market.”

President Joe Biden, in an address slated for Wednesday in Pittsburgh, will detail a mass expansion of government spending aimed at reducing inequality and strengthening infrastructure. A revamp of the tax code is also part of the plan and is already proving divisive among economists and lawmakers.

Ten-year Treasury yields increased to as high as 1.77%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.

ViacomCBS and Discovery rose, while the American Depositary Receipts of Chinese companies linked to the Archegos block trades also posted gains.

Europe’s equity benchmark rose to its highest level in 13 months as the momentum swung in favor of cyclical stocks such as banks and automakers.

Meanwhile, the U.S. reached a record three-day stretch of 10 million shots over the weekend, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, and plans to offer inoculations to 90% of adults.

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index dipped 0.3% to 3,958.86 as of 4:02 p.m. EDT.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3% to 33,070.94, the biggest fall in a week.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.1% to 13,045.40.

The Nasdaq 100 Index declined 0.5% to 12,896.54.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 0.7% to 430.65, the highest in more than 13 months.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% to 1,154.34, the highest in almost 20 weeks on the biggest advance in a week.

The euro dipped 0.4% to $1.172, the weakest in 21 weeks.

The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3724.

The Japanese yen depreciated 0.5% to 110.34 per dollar, hitting the weakest in about a year with its fifth straight decline and the largest decrease in more than three weeks.

Bonds

The yield on two-year Treasurys rose less than one basis point to 0.14%.

The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed less than one basis point to 1.71%, the highest in more than a week.

The yield on 30-year Treasurys fell three basis points to 2.37%, the biggest fall in a week.

Britain’s 10-year yield climbed four basis points to 0.824%, the highest in more than a week on the largest increase in more than a week.

Germany’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to -0.29%, the highest in more than a week.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 1.9% to $60.38 a barrel.

Gold depreciated 1.7% to $1,682.95 an ounce, the weakest in more than 11 months on the biggest tumble in more than a month.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404317

Thai stocks rise as US readies $3tn spending plan

EconMar 30. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,590.97 on Tuesday, up 7.08 points or 0.45 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt97 billion with an index high of 1,593.52 and a low of 1,585.06.

In the morning session, a Krungsri Securities analyst expected the index to rise to between 1,590 and 1,600 during the day in line with the direction of US and Asian indices.

He said the index also gained positive sentiment from the rising oil price after Russia backed Opec+ on oil production levels through May this year.

However, a rising US bond yield and volatility due to a rollover in the Thailand Futures Exchange market would pressure the index, he said.

He advised investors to follow US President Joe Biden’s announcement of a $3-trillion infrastructure plan on Wednesday.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were CPALL, COM7, OR, PTT, KTC, BANPU, DELTA, AOT, CBG and BBL.

Other Asian indices were on the rise:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 29,432.70, up 48.18 points or 0.16 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,456.68, up 21.38 points or 0.62 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,888.44, up 117.18 points or 0.85 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 28,577.50, up 239.20 points or 0.84 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3,070.00, up 33.96 points or 1.12 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 16,554.90, up 78.93 points or 0.48 per cent.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404303

Thai investors spending more on derivative warrants this year

EconMar 30. 2021

By The Nation

The value of average daily trading of derivative warrants has hit a new high this year at Bt9.9 billion, up 46 per cent from Bt6.8 billion last year, a KGI Securities (Thailand) expert said on Tuesday.

Janewit Chinkunkunniwat, managing director of KGI Securities’ Derivatives Business Division, said the trading value of derivative warrants from January 1 to March 26 was Bt576 billion thanks to the bounce in Thai stock market.

He said most investors had bought more call warrants rather than put warrants. The top five derivative warrants popular among investors are Krung Thai Card (KTC) with a trading value of Bt14 billion, followed by Global Power Synergy (GPSC) of Bt11.8 billion, Energy Absolute (EA) of Bt11.7 billion, Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) of Bt9.8 billion and Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD) of Bt8.9 billion.

“We expect the trading value of derivative warrants to rise further as it accounts for 10 per cent of the capital market,” he said.

KGI Securities has launched 260 derivative warrants in the first three months of this year, compared to 812 for the whole of last year.

“We expect to launch approximately 1,000 derivative warrants by the end of this year,” he added.

Atthanan Piyaseth, head of structured products at Bualuang Securities, expects investors to spend on derivative warrants related to the country reopening in the second quarter of this year.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404294

Positive sentiment nudges SET upwards

EconMar 30. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index rose by 6.24 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 1,590.13 in the morning session on Tuesday.

A Krungsri Securities analyst expected the index to rise to between 1,590 and 1,600 during the day in line with the direction of US and Asian indices.

He said the index also gained positive sentiment from rising oil price as Russia supported Opec+ on maintaining oil production until May this year.

However, rising US bond yield and volatility due to a rollover in Thailand Futures Exchange market would pressure the index, he said.

He advised investors to follow US President Joe Biden’s US$3-trillion infrastructure plan.

He recommended that investors buy:

▪︎ AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AAV, BA, CPN, CRC and MAJOR, which benefit from positive news of Covid-19 vaccine in Thailand.

▪︎ HANA, KCE, TU and CPF, which benefit from the weakening baht.

▪︎ CBG, ICHI, SAPPE, RBF, DOD, IP, TACC, GUNKUL and KISS, which benefit from positive news on hemp production and its general use.

▪︎ PTG, EA, GPSC and BBP, which benefit from news that Thailand will stop sales of conventional motor vehicles by 2035 and go in solely for electric vehicles.

The SET Index closed at 1,583.89 on Monday, up 9.03 points or 0.57 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt71 billion with an index high of 1,592.47 and a low of 1,580.90.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404291

Thai gold slides as spot price hits three-week low on strengthening dollar

EconMar 30. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold dropped by Bt200 per baht weight in morning trade on Tuesday, the Thai Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.29am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,200 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,300, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,741.12 and Bt25,800, respectively.

At close on Monday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,400 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,500, while gold ornaments were Bt24,938.20 and Bt26,000, respectively.

Spot gold price dropped to US$1,710 (Bt53,383) per ounce on Tuesday after falling by $20.1 to $1,714.6 on Monday, the lowest in three weeks, due to strengthening dollar.

Meanwhile, the market is keeping an eye on US President Joe Biden’s announcement on the $3-trillion infrastructure plan on Wednesday.

Hong Kong gold price dropped by HK$120 to $15,880 (Bt63,779) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30404276

Stocks decline amid Archegos fallout speculation

EconMar 30. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Claire Ballentine, Olivia Raimonde

U.S. stocks dropped from record highs as investors weighed the potential fallout from forced block sales on the rest of Wall Street. Oil rose and Treasury yields climbed higher.

The financials sector weighed on the benchmark S&P 500 for much of the day following revelations that banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley liquidated holdings in Bill Hwang’s family office Archegos Capital Management on Friday after he failed to meet margin calls. Boeing Co. lifted the Dow Jones industrial average to another all-time high after the aircraft maker announced a large order. The Nasdaq Composite finished in the red.

“Investors are whistling in the dark as they try to determine how wide the Archegos-related pain will spread,” said Adam Phillips, director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. “You’re seeing a tug-of-war play out between those who believe the situation is benign and those who worry about a systemic risk.”

Small ripples of the forced unwind were felt in credit markets. Nomura had to take the rare step of canceling a bond deal that had already priced after its loss warning. The investment grade credit default swaps index, a gauge of U.S. credit fear, was relatively calm, even though traders are demanding a higher cost to hedge against losses on the debt of banks that have been caught up in the Archegos situation, including Nomura and Credit Suisse.

A dollar gauge rose and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher. The Stoxx 600 gauge extended its highest level in 13 months.

Investors have been focusing on the strength of the recovery, aided by vaccines, and inflation risks. Later this week, U.S. President Joe Biden plans to unveil a further stimulus program with a tilt toward infrastructure. U.S.-China ties are also in focus, after a report that Washington isn’t ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports in the near future, but may be open to trade talks.

“Now, as we talk about additional stimulus — there will still be some of that — but you are going to have to start to balance it with the proposed tax increases,” said Jeff Mills, chief investment officer of Bryn Mawr Trust. “Because as we talk about more and more spending, it becomes very clear that taxes are going to increase, it’s just a matter of by how much.”

West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses before turning higher. Traders focused on the demand impact of renewed coronavirus lockdowns before the OPEC+ policy discussions on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ever Given was freed to allow the reopening of the Suez Canal.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin headed for the biggest one-day gain in two weeks.

These are some of the main moves in financial markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index declined 0.1% to 3,971.10 as of 4:05 p.m. EDT.

The Dow Jones industrial average increased 0.3% to 33,171.37, the highest on record.

The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 0.6% to 13,059.65.

The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.1% to 12,965.74.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2% to 427.61, the highest in about 13 months.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.2% to 1,150.47.

The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1765.

The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3761.

The Japanese yen depreciated 0.1% to 109.80 per dollar, the weakest in a year.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasurys increased three basis points to 1.71%, the highest in more than a week.

The yield on 30-year Treasurys advanced three basis points to 2.41%, the highest in more than a week.

Germany’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to -0.32%, the highest in a week.

Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 0.788%, the highest in a week on the largest gain in more than a week.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1% to $61.56 a barrel, the highest in more than a week.

Gold depreciated 1.2% to $1,711.50 an ounce, the weakest in three weeks on the largest drop in almost four weeks.