#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SCB’s economic centre predicts better-than-expected economic performance this year (nationthailand.com)

SCB’s economic centre predicts better-than-expected economic performance this year

EconDec 09. 2020

By The Nation

The Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) expects the Thai gross domestic product (GDP) next year to expand by 3.8 per cent on the back of improving global growth, fiscal stimulus packages and vaccine progress.

Global growth, however, is likely to get worse due to recent Covid-19 resurgences before improving. The recovery in 2021 is likely to be gradual, supported by vaccine progress, stimulus packages and less severe scarring effects.

However, most key economies (except China) in 2021 should remain below their pre-Covid levels in 2019. In late 2020, the Covid-19 resurgences in several countries should result in the tightening of lockdown measures and hence slow economic recovery in the near-term.

Looking forward, global economic recovery in 2021 will likely be gradual and uneven across countries and industries. Developed countries, which are expected to be vaccinated in the first half of the year, should recover faster compared to developing countries.

In Thailand, better-than-expected private consumption recovery in the third quarter of this year should result in smaller-than-expected GDP contraction in 2020.

In the third quarter of this year, Thailand’s GDP fell by -6.4 per cent year on year, supported by faster recovery in private consumption on the back of more holidays and stimulus packages.

However, recovery in the fourth quarter will likely slowdown somewhat due to Covid-19 resurgences in several countries, which should affect consumer confidence and domestic tourism. As a result, EIC expects Thai GDP growth this year to fall by -6.5 per cent versus its previous forecast of -7.8 per cent.

Looking forward, EIC expects the Thai economy next year to grow by 3.8 per cent due to the low base effect, global recovery, fiscal spending and additional stimulus packages as well as Covid-19 vaccine, which is expected to be distributed in the second half of 2021.

However, scarring effects should continue to pressure private domestic demand recovery. Public spending is likely to be a key supportive factor, especially public investment spending.

In addition, the Bt1-trillion recovery package still has about Bt500 billion ready to be disbursed in 2021.

Recently, the government also extended some co-pay measures, suggesting their ready stance to continue fiscal policy easing to support private consumption.

Thai exports in 2021 is expected to rebound and grow by 4.7per cent on the back of global economic and trade recovery. However, the severe shortage and hence rising cost on freight containers in late 2020 and early 2021 as well as strong baht due to weakening dollar should remain key headwinds for export recovery.

The progress in high efficacy rate vaccines, combined with Thailand as a production base for AstraZeneca, should support Thailand’s tourism recovery in the second half of next year, when both key foreign tourists’ countries and Thailand have been widely vaccinated.

On tourist arrival forecasts, EIC expects around 8 million foreign tourists in 2021, which remains significantly lower than the foreign tourist arrivals in 2019 (around 40 million).

Meanwhile, with material scarring effects on Thai economy, the effects should continue to pressure private consumption and investment recovery through:

• Fragile labour markets on the back of elevated unemployment, rising underemployment, and income slowdown,

• Bleak business registration and dissolution expected to continue, and

• Rising household debt to income ratio.

On monetary policy, EIC expects the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate at 0.5 per cent throughout 2021.

EIC expects strengthening Thai baht pressure to continue with the baht coming in the range of Bt29.5-Bt30.5 against the dollar at end-2021, mainly due to a weak greenback, resulting from global economic recovery, less volatile global trade tensions, larger US budget deficit, and hence capital inflows to emerging markets, including Thailand.

The key downside risks on the Thai economy in 2021 include Covid-19 resurgences and delay in wide vaccine distribution, and issues on political stability, which could impact investors’ confidence. The other risk is stronger Thai baht, compared with key trading partners, to impact external demand’s recovery.

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET gains another 0.25% as vaccines inject positive sentiment (nationthailand.com)

SET gains another 0.25% as vaccines inject positive sentiment

EconDec 09. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,482.67 on Wednesday, up 3.75 points or 0.25 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt123.39 billion with an index high of 1,503.89 and a low of 1,474.83.

In the morning session, an analyst at Krungsri Securities expected the day’s index to rise to between 1,490 and 1,500 points on the influx of foreign funds in response to positive news of Covid-19 vaccines, adding that the positive sentiment was also benefiting large-cap stocks.

“However, we still advise investors to stick to short-term speculation as the SET will come under pressure from its tight valuation and mass sell-offs to reduce risks during the upcoming long holiday,” he said.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were SAK, KBANK, DELTA, IRPC, ADVANC, PTT, SCB, SCGP, AOT and CPF.

As of 5pm, the price of oil rose by US$0.61 or 1.34 per cent to $46.21 per barrel, while gold dropped by $8.50 or 0.45 per cent, to $1,866.40 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were on the rise, except for Chinese indices:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 26,817.94, up 350.86 points or 1.33 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,371.96, down 38.21 points or 1.12 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,716.53, down 257.36 points or 1.84 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,502.84, up 198.28 points or 0.75 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,755.47, up 54.54 points or 2.02 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 14,390.14, up 29.74 points or 0.21 per cent.

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

No dramatic changes in Asian ties expected under Biden: Moody’s (nationthailand.com)

No dramatic changes in Asian ties expected under Biden: Moody’s

EconDec 09. 2020

By The Nation

Despite a renewed emphasis on improving relations with traditional allies in Asia, US policy towards China is unlikely to change dramatically under President-elect Joe Biden’s administration, a new report by Moody’s Investors Service published on Wednesday shows.

“We do not expect the Biden administration to result in major changes in Asia credit, with any renewed pivot likely to run up against the reality of longer-term shifts underway that are increasing China’s centrality to the region,” said Nishad Majmudar, a Moody’s assistant vice president and analyst.

With ongoing trade frictions, Biden is unlikely to unwind the actions the Trump administration took against China. And Moody’s expects Biden to embrace recent outreach from the EU on adopting a unified trans-Atlantic approach against China on certain issues, while also searching for areas of cooperation with China’s President Xi Jinping.

“We expect Biden’s multilateral approach towards China will not stop ongoing structural shifts, including the restricting of supply chains and consolidation of the global economy into three distinct blocs, with potential negative credit effects for multinationals and export-oriented companies,” adds Majmudar.

Outside China, Biden’s policy may attempt to revise the “pivot to Asia” adopted by former president Barack Obama, aimed at increasing diplomatic and investment ties with the region.

Biden’s increased engagement in Asia would face a challenge from China’s growing centrality in the region, and could result in countries facing a choice between strengthening security ties with the US or deepening economic ties with China.

Meanwhile, the likely increased focus by the US under Biden on climate policy initiatives will increase longer term credit risks for industrial sectors prominent in many Asian countries, particularly power, automotive, oil and gas, and steel. Similarly, US financial regulators are more likely to follow European efforts pushing for greater financial disclosures of environmental risk, which could create pressure for Asian regulators to follow suit.

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Delta share price jumps but experts voice caution (nationthailand.com)

Delta share price jumps but experts voice caution

EconDec 09. 2020

By The Nation

Delta Electronics’ share price rose by Bt68, or 20.8 per cent, to Bt395 per share in morning trade on Wednesday, but experts advised against investing in the company’s shares as its price was higher than the base value.

The price of Delta shares had risen more than Bt300 per share since yesterday as the company gained positive sentiment from the sharp rise of its subsidiary’s shares in Taiwan amid positive news of the firm’s Covid-19 test kit.

UOB Kay Hian strategist Kitpon Pripisankit said Delta’s share price went higher than many analysts’ forecast of between Bt200 and Bt250 per share.

“We advise investors to sell some of their Delta shares because its price has already responded to the above-mentioned positive sentiment,” he said.

Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities strategist Natapon Khamthakrue said Delta’s share price had risen higher than its base value and it would be listed on the SET50 Index again.

He added that Delta also gained positive sentiment from hopes over 5G and data centre trends, as well as speculation by Thai institutional investors.

“We advise investors to avoid buying Delta shares as its price would come under pressure from appreciation of the baht. Instead, we advise buying KCE Electronics shares as its price is cheap and is likely to move upside,” he said.