#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Five reasons gold prices are soaring

EconAug 06. 2020

By The Washington Post · Hannah Denham · NATIONAL, BUSINESS, WORLD 
Gold closed above $2,000 an ounce for the first time this week, capping an explosive growth spurt that has blown past analysts’ projections.

The precious metal closed Wednesday at $2,052 a troy ounce; that’s a 72 percent surge since the rally began in fall 2018 and nearly 35 percent higher year to date. Gold reached a new fervor during the pandemic as investors rushed for cover. In February, Goldman Sachs forecast it would push above $1,800 if the pandemic worsened. Last week, gold hit $1,981 an ounce, blowing past the record $1,921 set in 2011.

Analysts track commodities such as gold and silver for insight on investors’ economic outlook, especially during periods of economic uncertainty and volatility in other financial markets. And with the United States in the throes of a deep recession, tens of millions of Americans out of work, and a resurgence in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths, investors are looking for something tangible that will last.

Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer of Tigress Financial Partners, said he’s not a fan of gold. In March, after the U.S. stock market crashed, he said he urged investors not to bail out of equities. But the financial climate is much different now.

The U.S. economy shrank by a stunning 9.5 percent from April through June, according to data released Friday, marking the fastest quarterly drop in modern record-keeping. And there are fears of a backslide if recovery efforts fizzle and the country reverts to widespread shutdowns and other coronavirus pandemic safeguards.

“The only safe haven that we have is gold,” Feinseth said. “You got the momentum of everybody piling in, and the one thing about the commodities markets, they are very trend and momentum-driven.” 

Here are five reasons gold is on a tear:

– – –

It’s a safe haven

Gold demand typically spikes in times of crisis or uncertainty – especially if equity markets tumble, as they did earlier this year. In March, the price of bullion hit a seven-year high as the coronavirus pandemic intensified in the United States, reflecting anxieties about the abilities of financial systems, particularly central bankers, to survive the economic hit.

– – –

Sense of stability

Gold is typically insulated from inflation and generalized uncertainty. The precious metal is relatively stable over the long haul, and its value isn’t easily depreciated by outside factors or other currencies.

– – –

Weakened dollar

The dollar has depreciated, and its weakened value makes it more attractive to investors outside the United States and gold cheaper in other currencies. Feinseth said he’s been watching the ties between the dollar and sliding interest rates as a gauge of investor interest in gold.

– – –

Low yields

Since March, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero to keep financial markets stable and make borrowing costs as low as possible to shore up the economy. It also decided to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds. That brought yields down, making gold and its lack of yield more attractive to investors.

– – –

Media coverage

The higher gold prices go, the more analysts and investors talk about it, and the more financial media reports on it. Added exposure generally translates to more investor interest; that’s why some analysts expect prices to go even higher.

Last month, Phillip Streible, an analyst with Blue Line Futures, predicted gold would hit $2,500 by December 2021. Other market watchers believe it could happen as early as next week or by year’s end.

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Stocks climb on bets stimulus deal is coming

EconAug 06. 2020

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Vildana Hajric · BUSINESS, US-GLOBAL-MARKETS 

The S&P 500 Index posted a fourth straight advance amid encouraging news on the vaccine front and speculation U.S. lawmakers are making progress on an economic aid package.

The benchmark stock gauge rose to within 2% of its record closing high of 3,386, and a measure of global equities was near wiping out its losses for the year. Payment processor Square Inc. and media titan Walt Disney Co. rose after better-than-forecast earnings. Novavax Inc. jumped on positive early data from its experimental vaccine for covid-19.

Gold continued its ascent above a record $2,000 an ounce as investors sought an alternative to low bond yields. The dollar fell. Ten-year Treasury yields edged up. Oil rose after a decline in U.S. stockpiles.

Investors have been pushing stocks higher in recent days as pressure grows on Republicans and Democrats to resolve differences over a new U.S. virus relief package, especially with jobs data Wednesday painting a grim picture. Gains in precious metals suggest traders are nervous about the outlook for the global economy and seeking a hedge.

“Stock markets in general have been underpinned by expectations for further stimulus out of the U.S.,” said Candice Bangsund, portfolio manager of global asset allocation at Fiera Capital Corp. “The second-quarter earnings season has also lent some notable support and helped to counteract some of the fears about the latest resurgence in covid cases.”

U.S. economic data was mixed, with payroll gains slowing sharply in July, suggesting the pickup in coronavirus cases is putting the brakes on the job market. Meanwhile, service industries expanded in July at the fastest pace since February 2019.

Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced while Asian shares were mixed.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.6% as of 4 p.m. EDT.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.5%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7%.

– The MSCI Emerging Market Index advanced 1.2%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.5%.

– The euro increased 0.5% to $1.1864.

– The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 105.59 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys added four basis points to 0.54%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield increased five basis points to -0.51%.

– Britain’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 0.13%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude added 1.1% to $42.16 a barrel.

– Gold strengthened 1.1% to $2,040.59 an ounce.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Steep rise in Thai mergers and acquisitions as firms fight off virus crisis

EconAug 06. 2020

By The Nation

The Covid-19 pandemic has sparked a steep rise in mergers and acquisitions, according to an expert at CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT).

Businesses are choosing to fight the crisis by expanding or merging – especially in the hotel, health, hospital, and production sectors, said Pornchai Padmindra, CIMBT’s co-head of Wholesale, Corporate, and Investment Banking.

“Currently, many more bank customers than previously are discussing business mergers and acquisitions in deals worth from Bt1 billion to Bt20 billion,” he said.

“We expect customers to close their merger and acquisition deals within three to six months or in 2021 after observing business directions and ensuring the price is reasonable.”

He said 60 per cent of M&A deals were being made in Thailand, with the remaining 40 per cent in Asean countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia.

“Therefore, we expect the bank’s revenue from granting loans to large businesses to grow by 7-9 per cent in 2021 [year on year], and this year by approximately 6 per cent from loans of approximately Bt70 billion,” he said.

“Financial transactions among Asean countries in 2021 are expected to grow by 20-30 per cent compared to this year.”

He said quality of large businesses’ debt was not a concern because the bad-debt level at CIMBT was currently only 2 per cent and the bank was helping customers to control their borrowing.

“We will control bad debt to ensure that it will not rise over 3 per cent,” he said.

He added CIMBT was prepared to extend up to Bt20 billion in loans for the business sector, of which 40 per cent had already been granted.

“We believe that the prepared credit limit will be sufficient because the situation in the bond market has now begun to improve,” he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Private sector cuts GDP forecast to -9% as baht adds to business worries 

EconAug 06. 2020Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce(centre) and Supant Mongkolsuthree, president of the Federation of Thai Industry(right).

By The Nation

Thai businesses project a sharp drop in exports of 12 per cent this year and have revised downward their GDP forecast to a 9 per cent contraction. 

Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, announced on Wednesday that the private sector remains worried about dire economic conditions amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

All sectors – manufacturing, exports, tourism and domestic consumption – are struggling to recover from a dramatic downturn, he told press after a meeting with the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB).

Exports in dollar values are expected to drop by 10 to 12 per cent, worse than the previous estimate of a 7-10 per cent fall, he said.

Due to grim economic conditions, the committee had revised down its gross domestic projection to contraction of 7 to 9 per cent from the previous 5-8 per cent shrinkage, he said.

The outlook for the rest of the year remains gloomy, he said.

Many countries have experienced a second wave of virus infections, resulting in delayed recovery of Thai exports and tourism.

“Adding to the pain, recent baht appreciation has not been positive for exports, “ Kalin lamented.

The baht passed the 31 per dollar level on Wednesday. On the same day the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee blamed the baht’s two-week rise on the weakening of the US currency.

The business community is also worried about rising unemployment and expects more layoffs to come, although some Thai firms had recently hired back workers, he said.

The committee projects that about 7 to 8 million workers will lose their jobs this year. A few sectors are showing signs of recovery, though, notably agri-business, food and retail.

He said government should allow foreign businesspeople to enter the country as about 10,000 were waiting to visit Thailand. The committee will coordinate with the government to arrange alternative state quarantine for them, he said. 

However, with Thailand unable to reopen to foreign tourists right now, tourism revenue worth about Bt2 trillion last year is expected to take a huge hit.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, president of the Federation of Thai Industry, urged the government to accelerate the establishment of a centre to manage the post-Covid-19 economic recovery. The centre will offer a mechanism for government and the private sector to work together in order to rescue the economy, he said.

“Predee Daochai, former Thai Bankers’ Association president is expected to be appointed new Finance Minister, and we will coordinate with him very well,” he said.

Business also wants the government to speedily set up a Bt50-billion fund to aid small and medium-sized enterprises, and also cut taxes for SMEs, he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Shippers’ Council wants govt help to secure payments from foreign importers

EconAug 06. 2020

By The Nation

The Thai National Shippers’ Council will ask the Commerce Ministry to help secure payment from overseas companies that have delayed or declined to pay for imports received from its members.

Council vice chairman Visit Limluecha said he wants Thai Trade Offices overseas or the Office of International Trade Promotion to collaborate with counterparts abroad on talks for the importers to meet their payment obligations, though he realised that this was a difficult task.

He added that the payment delays or defaults stem from importers’ lack of financial liquidity amid the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The council has advised its members to be more cautious in their export activities, including always requiring a 50-per-cent deposit payment from buyers and applying for export credit insurance with the Export-Import Bank of Thailand to cover possible losses.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Virus crisis knocks 11.2% off govt revenue

EconAug 05. 2020

By The Nation

Net government revenue during the first eight months of the 2020 fiscal year (Oct 2019-May 2020) was Bt1.5 trillion, falling short of the budget target by 11.2 per cent, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.

Office director-general Lavaron Sangsnit attributed the shortfall to the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak and the government’s massive spending on relief measures.

Among those measures is postponement of tax filing to July-September this year.

Of the total revenue collected in the first eight months, the Revenue Department collected Bt1.08 trillion, 11.3 per cent lower than expected. Revenue from VAT was also lower than expected, due partially to the battering the economy took from the virus.

The Excise Department collected Bt362 billion, 16.4 per cent lower than the estimated, while the Customs Department took Bt64.3 billion, 11.7 per cent lower than expected, due to shrinking imports.

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SET bounces slightly over news of $1-trillion US stimulus measures

EconAug 05. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed 6.54 points or 0.49 per cent higher at 1,337.35 today (August 5), with total transactions standing at Bt60.357 billion with an index high of 1,341.23 and a low of 1,326.07.

In the morning session, a stock analyst at Krungsri Securities said he expected the index to rise between 1,335 and 1,340 points before falling as the market had won positive sentiment from progress in negotiations between US Congress and the White House on the $1-trillion (Bt31.05 trillion) economic stimulus.

“Investments also gained positive sentiment from US factory orders in June, which rose by 6.2 per cent, and the rising price of crude oil,” the analyst said.

However, he added that volatility from weak listed companies’ second-quarter performance and mass sell-offs in response to technical indicators will see a slump in the index.

The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee also voted unanimously today to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent.

The top 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were CPALL, PTTEP, PTT, AOT, PTTGC, SAWAD, NER, GULF, TOP and EA.

As of 4.30pm, the price of crude oil had risen by $0.59 or 1.41 per cent to $42.29 per barrel, while gold had risen by $29.30 or 1.45 per cent, to $2,050.30 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were mixed:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 22,514.85, down 58.81 points, or 0.26 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,377.56, up 5.88 points, or 0.17 per cent, while Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,960.92, up 100.47 points, or 0.72 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,102.54, up 155.91 points, or 0.62 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 2,311.86, up 31.89 points, or 1.40 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 12,802.30, up 92.38 points, or 0.73 per cent.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Price of gold ornaments hits historic high

EconAug 05. 2020

By The Nation

The selling price of gold ornaments today (August 5) rose by Bt600 to nearly Bt30,000 per baht weight for the first time in history, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 2.35pm, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt29,550 per baht weight and selling price Bt29,650, while gold ornaments cost Bt29,016.24 and Bt30,150 respectively.

At closing on Tuesday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt28,950 per baht weight and selling price Bt29,050, while gold ornaments cost Bt28,425 and Bt29,550, respectively.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

Central bank leaves policy rate untouched

EconAug 05. 2020Titanun Mallikamas, secretary of BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee

By The Nation

The Bank of Thailand is leaving the key policy rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent, but has warned that the recent appreciation of the Thai currency is posing a threat to economic recovery.

Titanun Mallikamas, secretary of BOT’s Monetary Policy Committee, said the panel had voted unanimously to keep the key policy rate unchanged on Wednesday (August 5).

Though the economy has started showing signs of recovery after the easing of lockdown restrictions and in line with global recovery, there is still a risk of a second wave of infections, he told the press after the meeting. 

The baht has risen over the past two weeks due to the weakening of the dollar, and this may disrupt economic recovery, he said, adding that the central bank is ready to impose additional measures if necessary to stem the baht’s rise. 

The policy rate can no longer play a key role, as the central bank has already brought it to a historic low in Thailand and relatively low compared to other countries in the region. 

Fiscal policy should play a key role in economic recovery by shifting the target to creating jobs, he said. 

Small businesses and households have been hit hard and it will take time before they can recover. The MPC is calling on commercial banks to speed up debt restructuring to particularly help SMEs and households. 

The arrival of foreign tourists has been delayed for longer than expected, though domestic tourism is recovering faster due to government stimulus measures. Commercial banks remain resilient, but they must brace for the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections, he added.

#ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

SET waives rules on ordinary shares by using market capitalisation

EconAug 05. 2020

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has waived rules for accepting ordinary shares by using market capitalisation and added regulations to allow infrastructure companies worth at least Bt2 billion to list on the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI). The new rules will come into effect on August 17.

SET President Pakorn Peetathawatchai said the move followed comments and recommendations.

He said SET has changed these rules:

> Increasing the quality of listed companies: SET has waived rules for accepting ordinary shares by using market capitalisation and added new rules to allow infrastructure firms worth at least Bt2 billion to list on the MAI.

“We are revising rules for accepting ordinary shares by using market capitalisation in SET,” Pakorn said.

> Increasing information for investors: newly listed companies must hold a meeting at least one day within the first year of the company being listed on the capital market to allow shareholders and investors to access and inquire about information from the firm’s board of directors and stock analysts.

“Companies must reveal information after its chief executive officer or more than half of its committee members are changed, as this is important information for investors,” Pakorn pointed out.

> Supporting company transactions: SET has revised rules to support company transactions, such as rules for increasing capital by general mandate and voluntary delisting if a listed firm restructures its shareholding structure.

“The SET has revised other rules to be in line with Securities & Exchange Commission regulations,” Pakorn added.