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https://www.nationthailand.com/world/asia-pacific/40023137

Citibank forecasts positive outlook for Asian economy in 2023

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2022

It is also expected that the Thai economy will expand further, with an expected GDP growth of 4.3% and headline inflation to return to an average of 2.5%

Citi has recently released an Asia-Pacific economic data update for 2023, indicating a positive outlook due to the end of Asia’s monetary tightening cycle and strong CAPEX trend in some economies, although China’s reopening will likely have a lesser impact on regional economic growth until 2H23.

The Thai economy is expected to grow further in 2023 as a result of the tourism recovery, an increase in private sector spending, as well as easing inflation. In any case, there remain downside risks to monitor amid global slowdowns.

Johanna Chua, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, Citigroup said, “The Asia-Pacific region’s overall economy shows positive signs in 2023. Citi expects Pan-Asia GDP growth at 4.4%, a slight increase from 3.5% in 2022. Despite risk factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical tension between China and the United States, and price shocks, the regional economy is expected to continue to grow, following the end of the monetary tightening cycle. The Fed’s policy rate is expected to peak, and the US dollar’s depreciation in the second half of 2023 is expected to relieve some pressure on Asia’s central banks. While China’s gradual re-opening is not expected to provide much growth support to Asia until the second half of 2023, it may cause inflation in ASEAN economies such as Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand to remain elevated for longer.”

Chua continued, “Based on investment and international trade trends in 2023, Citi forecasts a slowdown in the tech-led trade until the middle of 2023, followed by a U-shaped recovery in the second half of 2023. There are secular CAPEX trends that are worth monitoring, namely in Indonesia and India. More investments will be made in India in the fiscal year 2023, with increased production capacity and a record level of foreign direct investment. Additionally, foreign investment is expected to flow into the Indonesian supply chain, particularly in the low-carbon metals and electric vehicle battery industries.”

Nalin Chutchotitham, Citi Thailand economist, maintains the 2023 Thai economic growth forecast at 4.3% after the complete reopening. The tourism sector, in particular, will be a key growth driver, with an expected 23 million tourists in 2023, an increase from an expected 10.1 million in 2022. Private consumption is expected to continue growing as the labour income in the services sector recovers further. Despite the slowdown in the export sector, we continue to expect private investment to expand in 2023, supported by longer-term development in the government-promoted Bio-Circular-Green industries, as well as the Eastern Economic Corridor project.

“Despite slower growth in the export sector, the current account is expected to revert from a deficit in 2022 to a surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2023. This is expected to be led by higher tourism revenues, a decrease in freight service expenditure, and a narrower trade deficit due to lower commodity prices.”

“However, the Thai economy may continue to face upside inflation risks from demand-pull pressures and unexpected increases in energy prices. In our base case, however, headline inflation is expected to return to an average of 2.5% in 2023. We also expect the Bank of Thailand to hike the policy rate to 2.25% by the third quarter of 2023. The gradual policy rate hike, combined with ample domestic liquidity, will help to mitigate the negative impact of higher borrowing costs on SMEs and households. Meanwhile, there remains some room for fiscal measures should the economic momentum weaken more than expected,” Nalin concluded.

Citibank Thailand recently held an event dubbed “All-Star Analyst Day 2022” to provide corporate and institutional customers with information on economic and investment trends. 

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https://www.nationthailand.com/world/us-canada/40023132

Puerto Rico independence vote bill passes US House

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2022

Puerto Rico’s movement for greater self-government got a boost on Thursday in the US House of Representatives, which passed a bill for a referendum on three potential futures although the measure had little chance of being taken up by the Senate.

The Puerto Rico Status Act outlines terms for a binding referendum on the three options: full independence, US statehood or sovereignty with formal US association, similar to the Marshall Islands and Micronesia.

Democratic Representative Raul Grijalva, the bill’s original sponsor, said that whether the measure gets a vote in the Senate or not, it will still set “an important historical precedent” for Puerto Rico.

The legislation “tells the people in Puerto Rico, our fellow US citizens, that this election is going to be above board and the consequences are going to be above board,” Grijalva told a House committee hearing on Wednesday night.

The measure passed in the Democratic-controlled House in a 233-219 vote, largely along party lines.

Republicans argued against the bill because it did not offer the option of maintaining the status quo and said it was a distraction as a US federal government shutdown looms on Friday night unless lawmakers approve a funding measure.

The Caribbean island is currently a US territory whose residents are US citizens but do not have voting representation in Congress and cannot vote in presidential elections.

With about a week to go before Congress takes a holiday break, senators are scrambling to pass two major bills funding the military and the government more broadly.

Unless the Senate acts on the Puerto Rico bill this month, which is improbable, the legislation will expire. Republicans, who will control the House in the new Congress next year, are unlikely to reintroduce it.

Puerto Rico, which has about 3.3 million people and high rates of poverty, became a US territory in 1898. Activists have campaigned for greater self-determination including statehood for decades.

There have been six referendums on the topic since the 1960s, but they were non-binding. Only Congress can grant statehood.

Reuters

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https://www.nationthailand.com/world/us-canada/40023133

US National Archives releases documents related to JFK assassination

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2022

The US National Archives on Thursday released thousands of documents related to the 1963 assassination of then-President John F. Kennedy shortly after President Joe Biden issued an executive order authorizing the release that also kept hundreds of other sensitive records secret.

The release of 12,879 documents was not expected to include any new bombshells or change the conclusion reached by the commission led by Chief Justice Earl Warren that Lee Harvey Oswald, a former Marine and communist activist who had lived in the Soviet Union, acted alone. However, the latest cache will be useful for historians focusing on the events around the assassination.

Kennedy was shot and killed while riding in his motorcade through Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963, at the age of 46.

Thousands of books, articles, TV shows and films have explored the idea that Kennedy’s assassination was the result of an elaborate conspiracy. None have produced conclusive proof that Oswald – who was fatally shot by nightclub owner Jack Ruby two days after killing Kennedy – worked with anyone else, although they retain a powerful cultural currency.

Congress in 1992 had ordered that all remaining sealed files pertaining to the investigation into Kennedy’s death should be fully opened to the public through the National Archives in 25 years, by Oct. 26, 2017, except for those the president authorized for further withholding.

In 2017, then-President Donald Trump released a cache of records but decided to release the remaining documents on a rolling basis.

All of the remaining JFK files were originally supposed to have been released in October 2021. Biden postponed that planned release, citing delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and announced they would be instead disclosed in two batches: one on Dec. 15, 2021, and another by Dec. 15, 2022, after undergoing an intensive one-year review.

With Thursday’s release, 95 % of the documents in the CIA’s JFK assassination records collection will have been released in their entirety, a CIA spokesperson said in a statement, and no documents will remain redacted or withheld in full after an “intensive one-year review” of all previously unreleased information.

Reuters

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https://www.nationthailand.com/world/asean/40023126

Philippines bans the import of certain fish species

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

The Philippine government has temporarily barred the entry of certain imported fish to avert their diversion to wet markets which could aggravate disruptions in the food value chain.

In a directive, the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) said it suspended the issuance of sanitary and phytosanitary import clearances (SPSICs) for importing certain fish species effective immediately.

Canners are temporarily barred from importing round scad (“galunggong”) and moonfish (“bilong-bilong”) from abroad.

Likewise, the DA held off the SPSIC issuance to processors covering imported round scad, bonito (“tulingan”), mackerel (“alumahan”), moonfish, pompano, and tuna byproducts.

The import of these fish species will only be allowed if it will be directly undertaken by processors and importers who supply raw materials to processors with licences to operate and comply with food safety standards under the Food Safety Act.

Importers should also present a verifiable recording system of products containing the following: name of the importer; cold storage facility used to store fish imports; species and volume of raw materials delivered and processed along with the corresponding delivery and processing dates; and final destination of the processed product.

No substitutions

“Provided that, for importers supplying raw materials to processors, the species and volume of the products to be imported and the receiving processors thereof must be pre-identified in the application of the SPSIC and shall not be allowed to be supplied to any other processor,” the circular read.

Processors will be allowed to import once the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources completes the verification process.

Further, no import clearance shall be issued to institutional buyers for the importation of round scad, bonito, mackerel and moonfish in the meantime.

The DA, however, will allow them to procure imported pompano and tuna byproducts upon meeting certain requirements: a verifiable recording system that includes the name of the importer as well as delivered species and volume of imported fish with respective dates of deliveries.

“Importers allowed to import for processing and institutional buyers shall be solely liable with their client processor or institutional buyer for violation of import rules and regulations, including diversion of imported products to wet markets,” it said.

“For this purpose, a prima facie presumption of collusion between the importer and the processor or institutional buyer to commit such violation is hereby established,” it added.

The business group Fisheries and Aquaculture Board of the Philippines (FAB) said certain items outlined in the latest DA order need clarification.

Importers’ take

“Needless to say, it imposes additional constraints on the trade of imported seafood. This will result in additional disruptions and uncertainties,” FAB said.

“It will stoke inflation, especially among the small carinderias that serve the pompanos and galunggongs, tuna panga and byproducts,” it added. “Eventually as seen from experience over the high price of galunggong, consumers will no longer be able to afford these items from wet markets.

Meanwhile, the food advocacy group Tugon Kabuhayan threw its support behind some senators’ call for additional roads from fish facilities to markets, pre-border inspections, and in-country laboratory tests for fish imports to scale up initiatives to put an end to the smuggling of agricultural goods.

“We support the various recommendations of Senators Cynthia Villar, Nancy Binay, Grace Poe, Raffy Tulfo and Robin Padilla that would ensure steady fish supply at stable prices in the country,” said Tugon Kabuhayan convener Asis Perez.

“All these recommendations will improve the industry and benefit fisherfolk and consumers alike,” added Perez, a former BFAR director.

Philippine Daily Inquirer

Asia News Network