A politician with baramee would possess a number of characteristics attributed to a good leader such as acceptability, honesty and integrity. They must also be admired and respected.

The new constitution, which must be approved by the Constitutional Court next month, outlines a new electoral system, mixed-member apportionment, in which people vote only once and their votes are used to calculate the constituency MP and party-list MP seats at once.

As a result, changes to the parliamentary and administration landscapes are foreseen with no single party gaining a majority in the Lower House any more. Instead, there could be a power struggle that would pave the way for a person with baramee to lead the country.

Sukhum Nuansakul, a veteran political analyst and former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University, is among those who has observed this phenomenon closely. The senior scholar noted that as a result of the new electoral method, no party could form a strong government, and none of the elected parties would collaborate with one another to form a strong coalition government.

“The two major parties – the Democrats and Pheu Thai – would not be able to join forces. We won’t see such a big coalition,” he said. “The two opposition parties have different stances and different types of supporters. If they collaborated with each other, their own supporters would bombard them with criticism.”

Sukhum said politicians always want to be a part of the government, not be in the opposition. After this predicted deadlock, he said, small and medium-sized parties would emerge as the most powerful entities.

The unfolding political situation reminds the veteran analyst of the 1983 political climate, when parliament called for non-MP General Prem Tinsulanonda, the current Privy Council president, to serve a second consecutive term as premier.

Sukhum, who was Prem’s political adviser at the time, said after the 1983 election that some major and medium-sized parties, including the Democrats, the Social Action Party (Kij-Sang-Kom), the Thai Citizen’s Party (Prachakorn Thai), and the Chart Prachathippatai Party, supported the general prolonging his tenure. Sukhum said Chart Thai initially planned to form a government by taking the support of other parties. However, it did not win the premier race due to disharmony in the Lower House.

He said, it was the military-appointed Upper House, which the 1978 Constitution empowered to jointly select the premier, that hampered the party’s effort as it rather supported Prem from the beginning.

“Many political blocs then continuously came to Prem to offer him votes and support in a bid to get positions,” Sukhum recalled.

He said Senate has got similar powers under the new constitution. By approving the additional referendum question, voters have empowered the Senate to jointly select the premier at the first joint Parliament meeting for the first five years following the election.

Sukhum predicted that under the new charter, the junta-appointed Senate would definitely back Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who also heads the ruling National Council for Peace and Order.

However, Sukhum believes it is unlikely Prayut will vie to remain premier straightaway, as he had often reiterated that he did not want to cling to power. Prayut, he said, would wait for an appropriate time to do so – when the joint Parliament calls for his return to ease a deadlock and lead the new government.

“This way, Prayut would be in a better position to claim legitimacy to enter the office,” Sukhum remarked.

If the future political outlook is indeed similar to the environment over three decades ago, Thai politics would see a lot of compromises in Parliament. The Lower House will have to come to terms with the power of the Upper House, remarked political academic Yutthaporn Issarachai, deputy rector of Sukhohai Thammathirat University.

Yutthaporn noted that elected MPs would have to yield to the united Senate in the coming Parliament as the constitutional draft gave the Upper House extensive power to supervise politicians and the Cabinet, despite having no role in nominating the premier from the outset.

The academic also pointed out that the military would still be active in the next government because it believed that its mission was uncompleted.He said the NCPO seized power in 2014, citing as its mission the need to reform the country. However, the ongoing efforts to reform political parties and politicians had apparently not worked, he remarked. So, the junta wanted to continue its work as the country’s guardian.

He said anti-corruption agencies liked to project an image of being hardworking, but they had achieved no concrete results.

“[The state] has to be determined to overhaul the whole system, not just a little here and there,” he said.

The need for national reform was cited as the main reason for overthrowing the civilian government in 2014. The military-installed government promised to lay out the reform plan before returning power to the people and bringing back democracy.

However, many critics have expressed dissatisfaction over the government’s reform works, saying little progress has been made.

Despite this, a new Nida poll revealed 60.80 per cent of the 1,250 people surveyed nationwide believed General Prayut Chan-o-cha should stay on as PM post after the next election.

They reasoned he was decisive, straightforward, and was able to keep order, including reducing conflicts.

Nearly one-third of respondents (32.89 per cent) said he should become PM as an outsider nominated through a mechanism provided by the new constitution.

Suriyasai Katasila, a scholar at Rangsit University, said that the outsider PM issue was undermining reform efforts and could cause another conflict.

However, he said a growing number of people were discussing the idea of an outsider PM because people still did not trust politicians.

In a related development, legislators have been looking into whether the Interior Ministry should be responsible for staging elections instead of the Election Commission (EC).

However, National Legislative Assembly vice president Peerasak Porjit said he believed the EC as a central agency should continue doing the job.

But he added that the situation should be assessed constantly to determine if the EC was fulfilling its job or whether it required extra authority to work effectively.

Justice Ministry deputy permanent secretary Thawatchai Thaikiew said that Prayut issued the order after the ministry presented him a weekly human rights violation report dated August 3 that bringing suspects to press conferences has negative consequences for them. Whether they are finally acquitted of all charges and freed or they are convicted, they would have difficulties adjusting back in society because of the stigma.

The PM’s order requires the Royal Thai Police to issue directives to all police across the country not to bring suspects to press conferences, Thawatchai said, adding the police can only announce achievements.

Thawatchai said the suspects exposed during press conferences face adverse consequences because society may not accept them back and this could force them into committing more crimes.

A senior police source said the police always respect human rights and law. Before calling a press conference, police give papers for the suspects to sign their consent to be present at a press conference. The police would not bring the suspects to any press conference without their consent, he said.

Backing the previous practice, the source said, “On the contrary, showing faces of suspects is part of a warning for society to be vigilant of criminal elements.”

Another 56 per cent believe it is time for a Cabinet reshuffle, 55 per cent said Prayut should have a minor Cabinet reshuffle and 44 per cent said it should be a major change.

Dusit Poll carried out a survey on the same topic of Prayut setting up a military-dominated party.

The results showed that 69 per cent believe the idea is just “testing the water” or getting Prayut to respond to the proposal and 65 per cent believe that setting up the party would allow Prayut to be a legitimate PM.

Sixty per cent believed the idea was a political ploy and 58 per cent said it was interesting news and the respondents were curious as to whether the PM would do so.

Among the reasons why they supported Prayut having his own party, 71 per cent said Prayut could have legitimacy in a democracy to run the country and 68 per cent said he would have a political party to operate under and have a political base.

About 62 per cent said the idea would give voters more choice, and lead to stiffer political competition.

However, 77 per cent of respondents said the idea would make Prayut a sitting duck for his critics because he would be accused of extending his power and backtracking on his statements that he would not attempt to remain in power.

About 67 per cent said the idea may lead to political conflicts and political disturbances if it materialised, while 64 per cent said the party would be perceived as a military-nominated party and may have more power and privileges than other parties.

In a related development, lawmakers involved in drafting the general election bill have softened their stance and agreed to review a proposal to have the Interior Ministry assist the Election Commission in holding the poll.

The proposal from the National Reform Steering Assembly’s political reform committee also calls for the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to play a controlling role in ensuring peace and order during the first MP election.

The NRSA’s political reform committee chairman, Seri Suwanpanont, said the proposal was not yet final and the committee would meet on Tuesday to make a final decision. There has been criticism of and opposition to the proposal and the committee is expected to consider all opinions. “If the committee cannot agree upon the resolution, we may resort to voting, but that is unlikely,” Seri said.

He described as misleading the suggestion that the Interior Ministry would be given sole responsibility for holding elections. “The ministry is proposed to serve only as an assistant in preparing the election,” he said.

He dismissed remarks from politicians that having the Interior Ministry assist the EC in holding elections is a step backwards. He argued that the move helped create transparency and neutrality and saved state funds. “Ministry officials are unlikely to be biased politically,” he said.

He said the EC would not hand over its power to the ministry. Under the proposal, the ministry would deploy officials to oversee polling stations, replacing provincial election officials. “These officials belong to political parties and this can lead to political interference. The ministry is not a villain but the political sector is, as people siding with politicians were deployed to oversee polling booths,” he said.

“The EC still has the power to transfer or appoint officials. The political sector fears it cannot seek vested interests and cannot interfere in the EC’s affairs.”

Seri said the idea to have the NCPO help control the election was aimed at keeping the peace and the junta would not challenge the EC’s authority.

“The EC cannot solve problems when polling stations are blocked even with the support of police. It is better the NCPO control the situation rather than having the PM resort to Article 44 [of the interim charter],” he said.

NRSA political committee member Nikorn Chamnong said he believed the proposal conflicted with the charter draft passed in last month’s referendum.

Another NRSA political committee member Wanchai Sornsiri said the NCPO should play a role in ensuring fair elections. “People are not afraid of the EC but [are afraid of] the NCPO,” he said. “The present EC is not united and it needs the NCPO’s support. The council does not have more power than the EC – it only supports the commission.”

After a meeting of the National Anti Corruption Committee chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said officials facing disciplinary action were in general not as senior as people named on previous lists.

The prime minister enforced the all-powerful Section 44 of the interim charter to issue lists of officials alleged to be corrupt to pave way for investigations and possible disciplinary and legal action.

With six orders issued so far, some 237 officials having been suspended or removed from their posts ahead of investigations and possible punishment.

The latest list includes Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

Wissanu said investigations had been completed in 62 of the 237 cases. Eight out of the 62, ranging from local officials to high ranking ones including director generals, had been fired and 25 were discharged. The rest received less severe penalties including salary cuts, probation and warnings. Eight cases had been handed to the National Anti-Corruption Commission for criminal action.

At yesterday’s meeting the coup-installed Anti-Corruption Operation Centre was ordered to coordinate with all ministries in following up corruption allegations in their compounds and expediting cases. Ministries must report back to the centre within 30 days once cases have been sent to them for action.

The centre will then cross-check the inquiry results to ensure fair treatment for all concerned before taking further action, such as criminal investigation and charges being laid, Prayong Priyajit, secretary-general of the Public Sector Anti-Corruption Commission, said.

Politicians said such an arrangement would severely erode the legitimacy of the election, which is expected to be held late next year and is supposed to return democracy to the country.

They also warned that the image of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) would be badly damaged.

Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam agreed with politicians, saying the proposal for the NCPO to oversee the election could lead to credibility problems.

“The NCPO may have the power to do so but they must also consider whether it is appropriate. If the NCPO deals with the election directly through its military, police and civilian personnel, there may be criticism. There are risks involving legal and credibility issues,” Wissanu said.

The NRSA’s political reform committee proposed that the NCPO and Interior Ministry help the EC to ensure a free and fair election when voters go to the polls next year.

Nikorn Jamnong, a member of the panel and a politician from the Chart Thai Pattana Party, said yesterday the proposal was not finalised as the committee would complete its report on recommendations for organic laws in the new constitution at its next meeting on Tuesday.

A finalised report would then be forwarded to the NRSA, he said.

According to Nikorn, politicians who are members of the panel disagreed with the proposal but they were a minority on the committee.

He said if the NCPO jointly oversaw the election with the EC, the return to democracy would be undermined.

“Our country is now a semi-democracy already. If the NCPO is allowed to hold the election, our democracy will be even further diminished,” the politician said.

Democrat Party politician Watchara Petchthong said yesterday it seemed the proposal came from people who were making a zealous effort to please the NCPO. He warned that if implemented, the proposal would worsen the image of Prayut as the NCPO head. “The prime minister should instead leave the job to the EC only,” he said.

Democrat deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat also questioned the neutrality of the Interior Ministry in holding elections, adding that unlike the EC the ministry was often overseen by a politician.

He said the proposal for the Interior Ministry to oversee elections would take the country backwards because the EC had been set up mainly to ensure elections were free from political influence.

Meanwhile, Wissanu criticised the Constitutional Court for twice refusing to consider the revised draft constitution submitted by the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) on the grounds of a technicality. He said the court should have accepted the revised draft for consideration in accordance with its duty under the interim charter.

“People may view this as an attempt to buy time because there will be a delay,” Wissanu said.

The court refused to consider the CDC’s draft, arguing that the commission failed to follow the proper procedure in submitting questions.

The former ICT minister is serving a one-year jail term after the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders ruled last month that he had violated Article 157 of the Criminal Code – relating to negligence of official duty – by approving an illegal change to the concession contract in 2004.

The contract amendment allowed Shin Corp, the parent company of Thaicom Plc, formerly Shin Satellite, to reduce its shareholding in Thaicom from 51 per cent to 40 per cent, easing Shin Corp’s financial burden while increasing the risk of foreign control of a Thai company that held a concession granted by the government.

Shin Corp was later acquired by Temasek Holdings of Singapore and renamed Intouch Holdings. Intouch is also the parent company of Advance Info Service or AIS, one of the country’s biggest mobile phone firms.

Surapong is the first minister in the former Thaksin Shinawatra Cabinet to serve a jail term.

Meanwhile, Warong Dechgit-vigrom, a former Democrat MP, said the panel responsible for a civil liability suit against former PM Yingluck Shinawatra over the rice-pledging scheme could face problems if the amount of civil liability is reduced to Bt35.7 billion from the previous Bt286 billion.

As well as the civil liability case, Yingluck also faces a charge of negligence for her oversight of the rice-pledging scheme.