After dipping Wednesday, the S&P 500 index on Thursday pushed past 3,200 for the first time, led by tech, health-care and communications shares. The benchmark is up more than 7% in the fourth quarter and 27% so far this year. Data showing that jobless claims fell less than forecast did little to alter views on the health of the economy. Markets ignored the impeachment of President Donald Trump. The dollar steadied against its major peers. China said it was in close contact with the U.S. to sign the initial trade deal announced last Friday.

Treasuries bucked a sell-off in sovereign bonds from London to Tokyo as monetary decisions rolled out. Sweden’s central bank raised its benchmark to end half a decade of sub-zero interest rates, a move that will provide a test case for global counterparts with negative borrowing costs.

“We’ve been up like six of the last seven days so tactically we are overbought,” said Alec Young, managing director of Global Markets Research at FTSE Russell. “People know the seasonals are good, they know the macro situation has improved in terms of global growth and the trade situation. The concern is that a lot of this is already reflected in the market.”

With few new catalysts on the horizon to revive the equity rally and details of the trade deal remaining vague, equity traders appear to be in a holding pattern. Central banks likewise seem to be on hold, with policy makers in Japan, Taiwan, Norway and the U.K. leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the pound fell, adding to worst two-day plunge since July. The Stoxx Europe 600 index advanced. Earlier in Asia, equities dipped in Tokyo, Sydney and Hong Kong while they edged higher in Seoul. Stocks in China were unchanged after erasing the day’s losses as the central bank injected more liquidity before a year-end cash squeeze.

Here are some key events to watch for this week:

-Revised U.S. GDP data are due Friday.

-Friday also brings quadruple witching in the U.S., the simultaneous expiration date of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Expect elevated trading volume, particularly in the last hour of the session.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

-The S&P 500 index climbed 0.4% to 3,205.28 as of 4:01 p.m. New York time, the highest on record. The index closed at 3,205.97, up 0.45 per cent.

-The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5% to 28,376.21, the highest on record with the biggest gain in a week. it closed at 28,376.96, rising 0.5 per cent. While Nasdaq was up 0.67 per cent at 8,887.22, reaching fresh record high.

-The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased 0.2% to 415.07.

-The MSCI Emerging Market index declined 0.2% to 1,106.68, the first retreat in more than a week and the biggest drop in more than two weeks.

-The MSCI World index of developed countries advanced 0.3% to 2,340.84, the highest on record.

Currencies

-The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index dipped 0.1% to 1,195.23.

-The British pound decreased 0.5% to $1.3014, the weakest in more than two weeks.

-The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1124.

-The Japanese yen appreciated 0.2% to 109.30 per dollar, the strongest in more than a week on the largest rise in more than two weeks.

Bonds

-The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped less than one basis point to 1.91%.

-The yield on two-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 1.62%.

-Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to -0.24%, the highest in six weeks.

Commodities

-West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5% to $61.22 a barrel, the highest in seven months.

-Gold strengthened 0.3% to $1,479.15 an ounce, the highest in six weeks.

Discussions will also cover the qualifications of stock investors in this planned market, SEC assistant secretary-general Jomkwan Kongsakul said.

The SME startup, PE VC, is made up of representatives from state and private agencies.

The new market for SMEs and startups will be under SEC regulations. As its name suggests, only SMEs and startups will be eligible to list on the market.

Retail investors can invest in this market but their investment amount might be capped.

The results of the discussions will be presented to the SEC board and be a part of a public hearing later. The establishment of this market will need permission from the Finance Ministry.

Credit Suisse forecasts the global economy will grow at a moderate rate of 2.5 per cent, suggesting recession is unlikely.

Amid softer growth, Credit Suisse expects modest single-digit returns in the equity markets.

A polarised US presidential campaign, margin pressure, high corporate debt, and fewer interest rate cuts by major central banks – not to mention unexpected political developments – are likely to test investor nerves in 2020, Credit Suisse said.

Even if the US-China trade war eases and Brexit uncertainty diminishes, investing throughout 2020 will require portfolio diversification tilted towards areas of extra return.

Credit Suisse expects moderate economic growth, accommodative liquidity conditions and easing geopolitical tensions. As the US-China trade war subsides, business sentiment should improve, lifting growth-oriented sectors and stocks, it predicted.

Ray Farris, chief investment officer, South Asia at Credit Suisse, said: “We believe that the global economy and markets will continue to show considerable resilience in the face of challenges. In the Asia Pacific, the outlook for the more advanced countries of North Asia remains subdued due to weakness in Chinese trade, with growth of just over 2 per cent. The outlook for Hong Kong will depend strongly on local political developments. Economic growth remains far stronger in much of Southeast Asia, which has more catch-up potential and is less integrated into China-based supply chains. Some countries, most prominently Vietnam, stand to benefit as production continues to shift in their direction.”

“In Thailand, we think the baht should soften to 30.50 over the next several months as relaxation of foreign exchange controls works to generate new outflows from the country. For equities, we have a neutral view as weak growth environment is being offset by low interest rates.”

The outlook for the major economies and currencies:

➤ United States: Credit Suisse expects slower GDP growth for the US economy in 2020 at 1.8 per cent, accompanied by rising core inflation. The US dollar should remain supported but weaken in the course of the year as its interest rate advantage over most G10 currencies wanes.

➤ Euro-zone: Monetary policy is unlikely to ease further, but resilient credit growth should support ongoing economic expansion, with GDP growth forecast at 1 per cent. Fiscal stimulus and diminishing Brexit uncertainty should support the EU.

➤ Asia: A US-China trade deal would likely push the yuan higher and exert some upward pressure on other Asian currencies. Asia is likely to benefit from an improvement in global industrial growth momentum in early 2020 and keep full year growth of 5.3 per cent close to 2019’s 5.4 per cent. We expect the current industrial production slump to bottom in December and begin to recover in the first quarter of 2020. This should work to boost regional exports, improve some countries’ trade balances, and encourage capital flows into the region.

➤ Thailand: The surge in Thailand’s current account surplus to $9.1 billion in the third quarter of this year from $3.8 billion in last year’s third quarter, is the core source of the baht’s strength and looks likely to continue.

However, Credit Suisse expects the Bank of Thailand’s liberalisation of its foreign exchange controls to offset much of this by creating new Thai outflows into foreign currencies.

The key risk Credit Suisse sees to its forecasts is that Thailand’s current account surplus remains large and these measures do not spur significant new outflows.

Outlook for financial markets:

➤ Equities outlook

Equities continue to offer an attractive return advantage over low-yielding bonds. On a sector level, IT is preferred as one of the few high-growth sectors. Financials are also attractive, as the expected improvement in the cyclical outlook will likely trigger a further rotation into that sector in the first half of 2020, Credit Suisse said.

“We believe that a turnaround in the performance of Asian equities is likely in the coming months. We prefer North Asian markets, in particular China, over South Asian ones to take exposure to potential cyclical recovery, Credit Suisse said.

➤ Thailand: Earnings for the third quarter contracted 14 per cent year on year, pushing the numbers for the first nine months to 20 per cent below 2018 for the same period.

“The main factor behind disappointing results has been the lagging economy. Although the government implemented a mini-stimulus package in August-September, the amounts involved were modest, and headwinds from the external sector remained intense,” Credit Suisse said.

“We believe there is further downside risk to market’s expectations of 8.7 per cent EPS [earnings per share] growth for 2020. Though valuation is not cheap either with 2020 P/E [price to earnings] at 15.2 times, ample domestic liquidity and dividend yield of 3 per cent could provide support on the downside.”

➤ Fixed income

“We expect Asian high-yield corporates to be supported by more accommodative policies. Monetary policy is also likely to remain accommodative. The greater-than-7 per cent yield of Asian high-yield bonds remains attractive relative to developed markets and is not expensive compared to its 10-year average.

“We forecast Asia high-yield to deliver 6 per cent total return in the next 12 months,” Credit Suisse said.

➤ Commodities outlook

“Commodities have been on diverging paths this past year, with the industrial production slowdown weighing on cyclical commodities in particular. Going forward, this divergence is expected to diminish. While gold prices are likely to consolidate, oil prices may face a period of weakness before recovering eventually,” Credit Suisse said.

➤ Alternative investments

“In alternative investments, most real estate investments should continue to deliver moderately positive returns. Direct real estate is favoured, as lower interest rates do not yet appear to be fully reflected in the price,” Credit Suisse said.

John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia Pacfic at Credit Suisse, said: “In an environment of lower-for-longer yields, a multi-asset framework allows investors to take advantage of pockets of value in low-risk markets, while increasing expected returns by investing in equities and seeking out less conventional fixed-income investments. We believe such an approach will prove rewarding in 2020.”

Coupled with the rising number of global players from new frontier markets who have been able to build up their own production bases, the increasing number of workers-turned-entrepreneurs and the greater role of online trade, exporters now have to bear higher costs in addition to those incurred on improvement of product and service quality to meet international standards that involve increasing rules and regulations, while also aiming to boost their competitiveness amid the intensifying risks from global economic and political uncertainties.

Exim Thailand has therefore launched new product programmes called “Liquidity Enhancement for Exporters” and “ Relieving Debt Burden for Clients” to support SME exporters, both new and existing clients in all sectors, so that they have higher business liquidity and lower debt burden in the face of possible decreases in purchase orders against fixed monthly costs and expenses. This allows them to drawdown revolving credit to meet the incoming orders and develop their products and services for higher value added and higher competitive edge to cope with global market uncertainties going into 2020.

Exim Liquidity Enhancement for Exporters is aimed at supporting SMEs that are exporters, importers for export-oriented producers, and producers for exporters. They are offered short-term and long-term loan choices to reduce their debt repayment burden and enhance their business liquidity with higher working capital to fund their export activities or improvement of their machinery, factories and manufacturing technology.

Each loan carries a maximum 7-year tenor, credit line of up to Bt20 million per borrower, and an interest rate of 3.99 per cent per annum for years 1-2. It can be secured by a letter of guarantee from Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) in conjunction with other collateral assets. Moreover, no TCG credit guarantee fee is chargeable up to four years and total credit approval is targeted at Bt2 billion.t

Exim Relieving Debt Burden for Clients, meanwhile, aims to support SME clients who do not require additional credit facilities but reduction of installment repayment of short-term and long-term loans. For long-term loan clients, a loan rescheduling can be approved for up to two years. In case of rescheduling for not more than one year, the bank will grant a reduction of interest rate by 0.125 per cent per annum.

As for short-term loan clients, an increase in loan drawdown proportion and reduction of interest rate will be granted. Each client may drawdown up to 95 per cent of L/C value and 85 per cent of P/O value and have interest rate cut down by 0.125 per cent per annum for one year. The total support amount is targeted at Bt4 billion.

Both schemes are available from December 2019 until 31 December 2020.

Approximately Bt15.7 billion is expected to be injected into the economic system to create 5,200 job opportunities, increase liquidity and relieve debt burden for more than 750 SME exporters. This will enable SMEs in the export value chain to carry less debt burden and lower operating costs, as well as to develop their products and services for higher competitive advantage.

The Exim president added that exports of countries in several regions around the world have currently tended to contract in line with global economic slowdown and as repercussion from the trade war. Thai exports in 2019 have been shrinking for the first time in four years, predicted at 2.0 per cent, which is however still lower than those of such countries as South Korea at 10.7 per cent since early 2019, Indonesia at 7.8 per cent, Malaysia at 5.0 per cent and Japan at 4.6 per cent. Thai exports in 2020 are forecast to expand by 0-2 per cent.

In view of this, Exim Thailand has rolled out schemes toward the end of 2019 to assist Thai exporters, particularly SMEs who are the key to driving Thai export and economic growth, in running their businesses with adequate liquidity and ongoing development to ensure their competitive potential under the increasing international trade barrier circumstances. They are expected to be part of the stimulators of Thai export recovery in 2020 based on many strengths, including high resilience of Thai goods.

Some Thai foods and electrical appliances can also penetrate the Japanese market, especially those serving the Olympic Games to be hosted by Japan in 2020. Approximately 50 per cent of Thai exports today go to new frontier markets like India, Vietnam, Hungary, Poland, Nigeria, Morocco and Mexico.