As global economic and trade growth slows down, China’s economy is predicted to grow 6.1 percent in 2019, according to a blue book report published by the academy.

Next year, global economy is expected to show a modest recovery, said the report. However, as more external unstable and uncertain factors appear, China’s economic growth is projected to be about 6 percent in 2020.

To maintain China’s GDP growth and employment at reasonable level, prospective on macro-control should be strengthened, the report said. Meanwhile, countercyclical adjustments should be appropriately intensified, as well as the use of fiscal and monetary policy tools.

During the economic downturn period, the government investment should play roles of “ballast” and “stabilizer”, to avoid plummeting in fixed-asset investment and overall economic growth, the report added.

In 2020, fiscal policy should optimize the tax and fee cut plan and put it in place, to ease companies’ burdens. Fiscal expenditure adjustment should be performance-oriented, and strengthen the support for manufacturing transformation and upgrading, and technical transformation, in a bid to motivate enterprise innovation.

The government should raise deficit-to-GDP ratio appropriately and increase the bond issuance, with the focus on supporting vocational education, nursery and kindergarten, healthcare and elderly care.

Meanwhile, under current complicated macro-economic conditions, monetary policy should create reasonably and stable liquidity for real economy, and reduce financing cost. Financial institutions should prevent and mitigate financial risks and avoid financial systematic risk and regional finance risk, the report said.

If the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issues such an order, Myanmar will be under real pressure as it is a binding one, said the expert.

“It was truly convincing the way the lawyers, who are very reputed in their fields, presented their arguments at the top UN court in the Hague,” Ahmed Ziauddin, a genocide researcher based in Brussels, told this correspondent yesterday.

“They made it very clear that provisional measures were urgent to protect the Rohingyas, and such measures won’t affect Myanmar as a state.”

The ICJ is not a criminal court that can issue an arrest order against any individual. But if it issues “provisional measures” to stop genocide, that means the judges have acknowledged the genocide, he said.

Besides, Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who is leading a panel of Myanmar lawyers, could be in real trouble because the International Criminal Court (ICC), which deals with the crimes of individuals, will use the ICJ reference and may hold Suu Kyi responsible, mentioned Ziauddin.

“Such possibility is high because Suu Kyi as the head of a state allowed the genocide to take place.”

Governed by the Rome Statute, the ICC, also based in the Hague, investigates and, where warranted, tries individuals charged with the gravest crimes of concern to the international community: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and the crime of aggression.

Ziauddin said it was surprising that Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate and once an icon of democracy, went to the Hague to defend the allegations of genocide against Myanmar.

There could be fresh calls for holding her accountable, he added.

The Gambian team mostly used the UN Fact-Finding Mission’s report on the Rohingyas. The report, submitted to the UN Human Rights Council last year, found elements of genocide against the Rohingyas and called for probe into the roles of Myanmar generals.

The team also narrated how Myanmar, which denied the Rohingyas citizenship since 1982, worked for decades to destroy partly or in full the Rohingyas as a group.

Myanmar doesn’t recognise the Rohingyas as an ethnic group and call them “kalar”, a racial slur.

Bangladeshi rights activist Shirin Huq, who is attending the ICJ hearing in The Hague, said the Gambian team presented arguments against Myanmar one by one under Article 9 of the UN Genocide Convention.

A stone-faced Suu Kyi sat in the front row and attentively listened to the arguments from the Gambian lawyers, Shirin told The Daily Star over the phone.

This is a crucial phase in the history of struggle for international justice, she mentioned.

“The Gambia has a team of well-prepared lawyers. We are hoping that the ICJ will issue provisional measures that will help prevent further atrocities on the Rohingyas.

“The Gambia stands tall,” Shirin said praising the small African country.

She also said it was regretful that William Schabas, a noted expert on international law, who said in 2014 that Myanmar’s treatment of the Rohingyas was tantamount to genocide, will argue on behalf of Myanmar.

“We will have to wait and see how the Myanmar side presents its arguments tomorrow [today],” the rights activist added.

The Gambia, on behalf of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Conference, filed the lawsuit against Myanmar on November 11, accusing it of violating the UN Genocide Convention.

The central Economic Work Conference meeting began Tuesday and will wrap up on Thursday, according to people briefed on the plans, right as negotiators aim to finalize a phase-one trade deal with the U.S.

The closed-door gathering lays down priorities for economic policy for the coming year and sets targets for gross domestic product growth, the fiscal deficit and inflation. The details aren’t released until legislative meetings in March.

Almost two-thirds of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg this week said the target for gross domestic product expansion will be formulated as “about 6%,” a form of words that gives policy makers flexibility to acknowledge the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy without abandoning a long-standing goal to double the size of output this decade.

The current goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%. Six of the respondents said a target of 5.5% to 6% would be set.

Chinese officials face a tough combination of slowing growth and rising inflation driven by soaring pork prices, and trade frictions with the U.S. that could be about to worsen if U.S. President Donald Trump goes ahead with a threatened tariff escalation on Dec. 15.

Top economists spar over how much slower growth should go

Policy makers have sought to strike a balance between propping up the economy while avoiding an all-out stimulus binge that would worsen debt risks. The State Council’s Information Office didn’t immediately respond to inquiries about the meeting.

State media typically issue a brief report on the outcome of the meeting after its conclusion.

Top leaders on Friday vowed to avoid systemic financial risks next year and warned that “challenges at home and abroad have risen significantly.” The gathering of the 25-member Politburo, chaired by President Xi Jinping, pledged to keep growth in a “reasonable range” and called for turning external pressure into a driving force for deepening reforms and opening up.

China’s economy grew 6% in the third quarter, the slowest rate in decades. The nation’s consumer inflation accelerated to a seven-year high in November while producer prices extended their run of declines. Exports unexpectedly declined in November amid still-weak global demand, though an uptick in imports may be further evidence of a stabilization in the domestic economy.

China’s economy slowed for 7th month in November, Bloomberg’s early indicators show

A State Council economist said in a People’s Daily article Tuesday that it is not necessary to attach too much significance to the 6% growth rate, but highlighted the importance of high-quality development. “6% is not a special watershed,” said Wang Yiming, a deputy director at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The surveyed economists also saw the government maintaining a cautious stance toward inflation and fiscal stimulus. A slim majority of 53% said that the fiscal deficit target, which policy makers use to calibrate the level of support to the economy, would be set slightly higher, at 3% of GDP compared with 2019’s 2.8%.

Dealing with inflation, the economists were split roughly evenly between those who expect a “ceiling” of between 3% and 4% for consumer-price gains to be set and those seeing no change at 3%.

The S&P 500 index fluctuated for most of the day before ending lower. Trade took center stage, with investors debating whether China and the Trump administration will reach a meaningful trade deal to avert fresh tariffs. Multiple reports indicated a delay was likely, before administration officials said the outcome depends on how talks progress. The two sides say a partial deal remains within reach, though the contours have not been made clear. Crude rose.

“The trade talks and headlines are going to be very fluid this week,” said Ryan Nauman, market strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence’s Zephyr. “You’ve got a lot of stuff going on this week, just a lot of information that traders are having to contend with. But trade talks and headwinds are definitely driving risk-on or risk-off trades right now.”

In other trade news, Canada, Mexico and the U.S. moved toward an agreement that appeared to have legislative support in each of the countries. Mexico’s peso was little changed.

“Those three countries are highly dependent on each other so I don’t think there likely to be anything that is that far away from where we’re at,” said Jim Besaw, chief investment officer at GenTrust.

Trade continued to dominate sentiment on equity markets, with the dispute between the world’s two largest economies taking much of the blame for a slowdown in global growth. The spat is overshadowing a spate of central bank meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve gathering Wednesday. House Democrats are expected to unveil impeachment charges later Tuesday against President Donald Trump.

The pound rose ahead of a key political poll and just two days before a general election dominated by Brexit. The euro advanced while European bonds drifted lower after French and German economic data beat expectations.

Here are some key events to watch this week:

–The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by a press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell.

–The next European Central Bank policy decision is on Thursday.

–The U.K. holds a general election Thursday.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

–The S&P 500 index fell 0.1% at 4 p.m. New York time.

–The Nasdaq Composite index lost 0.1%.

–The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.1%.

–The MSCI All-Country World index was flat.

Currencies

–The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index fell 0.1% to 1,199.25.

–The Japanese yen fell 0.2% at 108.75 per dollar.

–The euro added 0.2% to $1.1085.

Bonds

–The yield on two-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 1.65%.

–The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 1.84%, the highest in almost four weeks.

–Germany’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to -0.30%.

Commodities

–West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.5% to $59.32 a barrel, its sixth consecutive advance.

–Gold futures added 0.3% to $1,469.20 an ounce.

–Brent crude gained 0.3% to $64.43 a barrel.

New Zealand Police confirmed Tuesday that an injured victim taken from White Island, also known as Whakaari, died at a hospital in suburban Auckland that night, bringing the death toll to six, The Australian reports. Officials warned Tuesday night that positively identifying the deceased could take time owing to the “severe” nature of the injuries suffered.

“The scale of this tragedy is devastating,” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said during an address to Parliament Tuesday in which she praised the helicopter crews who landed on the island to rescue survivors in the aftermath of the eruption. “To those who have lost or are missing family and friends, we share in your grief and sorrow, and we are devastated,” she said.

Police now believe that 47 visitors were on the island when it erupted at 2:11 p.m. local time Monday and launched thick clouds of ash 12,000 feet into the air leaving some survivors with severe burns. Half of the visitors are Australian, while nine of them are Americans, police said; other visitors on the island were from New Zealand, China, Germany, Malaysia and the United Kingdom. Several of the visitors were passengers from a Royal Caribbean cruise ship in port at Tauranga, a coastal town about 55 miles from White Island.

Windy conditions on the island, and the fact that minor volcanic eruption activity is still taking place, have slowed recovery and analysis efforts even as scientists forecast that the most violent eruption has passed for now. Police said they plan to fly drones carrying equipment to test gas levels, though crews were largely kept away from the Island on Tuesday.

GeoNet, which monitors geological hazards in New Zealand, placed the volcano alert level at a three out of a five-point scale, or “minor volcanic eruption.” The alert level had been a two a week before the incident.

“Moderate volcanic unrest continues at Whakaari/White Island, with substantial gas, steam and mud bursts observed at the vent located at the back of the crater lake. Other monitoring parameters remain elevated and the Volcanic Alert Level stays at Level 2,” a Dec. 3 bulletin read.

But signs of unrest in the days before the volcano eruption have led to questions as to why tourists were able to access the uninhabited island whose bursts of “explosive gas and steam-driven mud jetting” from the volcano’s vent, according to GeoNet, had been intensifying in recent weeks.

Barbara Barham at first didn’t foresee trouble when her newlywed daughter, Lauren Urey, 32, called from her honeymoon aboard the Royal Caribbean cruise ship to report that she and her husband, Matthew, were docked in New Zealand and headed to an action-packed day on the island.

“She said they were going to the volcano,” Barham told The Washington Post. “My husband was joking around and said, ‘I hope it’s not a live volcano.'”

But after a midnight call from Royal Caribbean telling Barham that her daughter and son-in-law had not returned to the ship, Barham received an even more troubling call from Matthew’s mother; she had received a distressing voice mail from her son.

“Her son called and said that they had been on the excursion and there had been a volcano eruption and they were burned very bad,” Barham recalled. “He said he would try to call as soon as he could, but talking and making phone calls was difficult. His hands were so badly burned, it was hard for him to make a phone call.”

After hearing reports of the volcano’s ongoing activity in the days before her children visited. Barham told The Post she was “livid.”

“There’s been warnings about it. . . . My son-in-law never would have booked the excursion if he knew there was any chance of them being injured.”

Barham’s daughter and son-in-law remain hospitalized with severe burns.

Although White Island last had a “short-lived eruption” in April 2016 and spewed ash from a vent five months later, Monday’s eruption was surprising but not unique, according to scientist Ken Gledhill of GeoNet.

“In the scheme of things, for volcanic eruptions, it is not large,” he told the Associated Press. “But if you were close to that, it is not good.”

Tour operators make the ultimate decision whether to take visitors to the privately owned island, where access is controlled through permits, the New Zealand Herald reported.

Prime Minister Arden acknowledged in her remarks to Parliament Tuesday that “there will be bigger questions in relation to this event” but did not detail who or what entities investigators may scrutinize.

New Zealand Police later Tuesday backed off a previous statement that the deaths and injuries would be investigated as a criminal matter.

“It is too early to confirm whether there will also be a criminal investigation,” police said in an updated statement. Police, working on behalf of the coroner, would investigate in coordinating with WorkSafe New Zealand, which regulates workplace health and safety conditions in the island nation.

“WorkSafe New Zealand has opened a health and safety investigation into the harm and loss of life caused by the eruption,” the agency said in a statement via Twitter Tuesday. “As the workplace health and safety regulator and administrator of the Adventure Activities Regulations, WorkSafe will be investigating and considering all of the relevant work health and safety issues surrounding this tragic event.”

Royal Caribbean Cruises said in a statement that the company is “devastated.”

“We are working together with local authorities, and we are providing all the help and care we can to our guests and their families, including offering medical resources and counseling,” the company said.

Royal Caribbean is sending staff from the ship and its Sydney and Auckland offices to help family members. Ovation of the Seas will remain in port for the time being, the company said.