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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40016235

Senior executives are calling for government measures to help business operators and the public affected by rising inflation caused by expensive oil and commodities due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, a survey conducted by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has found.

As many as 76 per cent of the executives surveyed said they expected a global recession this year due to high inflation and supply-chain disruptions if the war worsens and Western countries tighten their US-led boycott of Russia, FTI vice-chairman Montri Mahaplerkpong said on Thursday.

The respondents expected Thailand’s inflation rate to stay at 4-5 per cent this year, he said.

The FTI’s CEO Survey on “How inflation affects the Thai economy”, was conducted in May with 200 top executives of 45 industrial groups across the country.

Most of the executives called on the government to issue measures to help groups affected by the high inflation, including low-income people and operators of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

They suggested that import taxes for goods necessary for industrial production, such as animal feeds and fertilisers, should be reduced while diesel oil prices should be retained at THB32 per litre for another three to six months.

Of the executives surveyed, 88.5 per cent said the high inflation led to higher production costs and expensive products, while another 64 per cent pointed to higher household debt and lack of liquidity for business operators.

Almost 75 per cent of the respondents said the industrial sector would need to cut production costs to stay afloat amid the high inflation, while another 62 per cent pointed to the adoption of digital technology.

Published : June 02, 2022

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40016230

The Ministry of Commerce has suggested that Thai exporters study an online trade facilitation platform being used by 22 African countries to exchange shipping information in real time, to help boost transparency and curb corruption.

Phusit Ratanakul Sereroengrit, director-general of the ministry’s Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP), said on Thursday that by better understanding the system, Thai exporters could boost their competitiveness in the African market.

He said the Thai commerce attaché in Kenya recently reported about the African country’s adoption of a trade facilitation platform called “Ken Trade e-Single Window” for the exchange of single-entry shipping documents with 21 other African nations, including Morocco, Tunisia, Cameroon and Senegal.

The e-trade system exchanges real-time information among the member countries regarding international trade, such as import taxes, shipping service fees, certificates of origin for cargos. Such information is made available by the relevant state agencies, shipping companies, and exporters and importers.

Phusit said that with such information, those involved realise the costs and time spent on shipping products from one country to another. Also, time can be saved as there is no need to submit documents.

“Ken Trade reflects an attempt by African countries, particularly Kenya, to use technology in international trade. This helps to ensure transparency about shipping costs and allows real-time tracking of cargos. As a result, the corruption issue can be tackled,” Phusit said.

The official suggested that Thai exporters could cut the cost and time of shipping their products to Africa if they participate in the system.

He added that the Thai commerce attaché to Kenya has been instructed to gather information regarding the pros and cons of the system for Thai exporters keen on the African market.

Published : June 02, 2022

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40016208

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has maintained its 2022 gross domestic product estimation of 2.5 to 4 per cent, sticking to its prediction earlier this year despite the Russia-Ukraine war bombarding the global economy.

“Although Thailand still faces risks that include a declining global economy due to international conflict, rising costs from the fuel price crisis, and inflation, we believe the country will be able to achieve 2.5 to 4 per cent economic expansion thanks to a recovering tourism industry and expanding exports,” JSCCIB chairman Sanan Angubolkul said on Wednesday.

Sanan, who also chairs the Thai Chamber of Commerce, went on to say that global concerns about a shortage of food and raw materials in manufacturing supply chains due to impacts from the Russia-Ukraine war have increased demand for Thai products.

He predicted the export sector would see expansion of 3 to 5 per cent year on year in 2022, while general inflation is expected to be 3.5 to 5.5 per cent.

“However, slowing economic growth in China and Japan could affect exports for the rest of the year, as we can see from April exports to those countries, which are slightly lower than in the same period last year,” he warned.

Sanan said the Thai economy for the remainder of the year would suffer slightly from decreased purchasing power due to inflation, but booming tourism would compensate for this as a result of the government lifting restrictions on foreign arrivals since May 1.

“We are witnessing constantly increasing numbers of foreign tourists since the restrictions were lifted, so the committee believes the number of international visitors could reach 8 million,” he said.

“Meanwhile, the number of domestic tourists has also risen to about 80 per cent of the 2019 total before the Covid-19 crisis. This number is expected to increase once the government’s tourism stimulus campaigns are extended,” Sanan added.

Published : June 02, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40016205

The baht opened at 34.37 to the US dollar on Thursday, skidding slightly from Wednesday’s close of 34.34.

The currency is expected to move in a range between 34.30 and 34.50 on Thursday, predicted Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool.

Poon said the baht might fluctuate and weaken during the day as the dollar strengthens over concern that the US Federal Reserve might increase the interest rate to bludgeon inflation.

Meanwhile, investors have unloaded the baht, recently selling short term bonds worth THB3.8 billion, he noted.

The baht might test its resistance level of 34.40-34.50 to the dollar because of these transactions and stock sales, he added.

However, the baht will not weaken much past its resistance level as exporters are waiting to sell the dollar, Poon said.

China’s Covid-19 situation is also not worrying while the Chinese government eases lockdown measures, keeping EM Asia assets from being sold in large amounts.

Poon said the baht would move between 34 and 34.50 to the dollar until new factors emerge.

He advised businesses to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in the highly volatile currency market.

Published : June 02, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40016194

Thai exporters have begun to feel the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and several economic woes, including a Chinese economic slowdown, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) said on Wednesday.

Sanan Angubolkul said Thai exports are starting to be affected by the global economic slowdown caused by headwinds from the protracted Russian-Ukraine conflict.

He pointed out that the rising cost of consumer goods, high inflation rates, inadequate key materials in supply chains, policy rate hikes by several central banks and China’s economic slowdown coupled with only 4.5 per cent projected growth in its GDP this year were causing the global economic slump.

Sanan said the worldwide slowdown and other problems would definitely affect Thai exports for the remainder of the year.

He noted that warning signs have already emerged with shrinking year-on-year exports to China and Japan in April. He did not elaborate.

However, overall exports in April still enjoyed 9.9 per cent year-on-year growth, Sanan added.

The TCC chairman said exporters had also been hit by rising transportation costs due to soaring oil prices amid the war.

Anyway, he said, Thai exporters of food and agricultural products could actually stand to gain from the global fear of food shortages owing to the war.

Sanan said such fears had prompted a number of countries to stop exporting agricultural products, especially wheat, sugar and vegetable oil.

Since Thailand has not encountered any food shortage and with production far outstripping domestic demand, Thai exporters can grab the opportunity to export agricultural products to world markets, Sanan pointed out.

However, he advised, food stocks and agricultural products must be managed well so the government ensures there is no shortage of necessary materials, including fertiliser and animal feed.

Despite the impact from global woes, the chamber expects export growth of 3 to 6 per cent this year and inflation in the range of 3.5 to 5.5 per cent.

The TCC also believes tourism would be the main economic driver this year and expects 6 million to 8 million foreign arrivals, Sanan added.

Published : June 01, 2022

By : THE NATION