The baht opened at 37.80 to the US dollar on Tuesday, strengthening from Monday’s close of 38.08.
The Thai currency will likely move between 37.70 and 38.00 against the greenback during the day, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted.
Poon said that the market is in a risk-on state, which might slow the baht’s weakening if foreign inflows rise.
Also, the baht may gain short-term support from gold sales if the price exceeds its resistance level at $1,700 per ounce, he added.
He said the baht could swing sideways or strengthen in the short term, as daily and weekly graphs show signs of bearish divergence.
He also advised watching for weak liquidity in the market that could drive baht fluctuation and sideways swings in a wide range.
Poon predicted a support level of 37.50 to 37.70, when importers would buy dollars. He expects a resistance level of 38.20 to 38.30, when exporters would sell the dollar.
He also advised investors to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in a highly volatile currency market.
Thai economy to expand at least 3% for next 2 years but election a potential disruptor: Fetco
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
The Thai economy will defy global recession to expand at least 3 per cent both this year and next year, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (Fetco) forecast on Monday.
Thai growth will come from a recovery in tourism and foreign direct investment after the Covid-19 pandemic, Fetco chairman Kobsak Pootrakool predicted. The World Bank forecasts Thai growth of 3.1 per cent in 2022 and 4.1 per cent in 2023.
Kobsak, who is also executive vice president of Bangkok Bank, said this year’s repeated raising of policy rate by the US Federal Reserve to combat inflation is creating a global recession that could last until next year. He said this recession, the fifth in the past 50 years, would cause mass layoffs by US and European corporations as well as liquidity problems in emerging markets, which would need International Monetary Fund assistance.
“As for Thailand, exports in 2023 will not expand sharply like in the past one or two years as most of our trade partners will still be suffering from the economic downturn,” he said. “However, rising tourism and foreign direct investment will help Thailand’s economic expansion surpass 3 per cent this year and next year.”
Kobsak pointed out that Thai tourism industry is on an upward trend with around 1.5 million foreign visitors per month since August. He estimated that total foreign arrivals this year exceed 10 million and grow to 20-25 million in 2023. These visitors would generate significant circulating capital for the Thai economy.
Kobsak added that foreign investors also favour Thailand as a top choice in Asean, along with Vietnam.
“The fact that China’s electric car manufacturer BYD is establishing a plant in Rayong proves that Thailand can still attract foreign direct investment to strengthen our economy,” he said.
Possible blocks to economic expansion include political transition after the general election due in May 2023, Kobsak said. The government transition could disrupt continuity of economic policy and investor confidence, he said.
He also urged the government to provide data on the strengths and opportunities in Thailand’s economy to maintain investor confidence through the recession. This could be done via domestic and international marketing campaigns and roadshows. “The government must also make sure that mega projects such as expressways, high-speed railways, and infrastructure in the Eastern Economic Corridor and Southern Economic Corridor progress as planned to attract foreign investment in facilities,” he said.
PM Prayut rejects talk of shortlisting Gen Chakthip as his successor
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
Rejecting rumours that he has chosen former national police chief Pol General Chakthip Chaijinda as a possible candidate for the PM’s job, Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha said he has not chosen a “political successor”.
“I have not thought about my political future yet. Right now, I want to focus on tackling the flood problems,” the PM, who also doubles as defence minister, said on Tuesday.
Prayut was in Khon Kaen and Ubon Ratchathani provinces on Tuesday to inspect the flood situation. Accompanying him were Interior Minister Anupong Paochinda, Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin and Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn.
The Constitutional Court spared Prayut last week, ruling that his eight-year tenure did not expire on August 24 this year. Instead, the court said, his tenure should be counted from April 6, 2017, when the current Constitution was promulgated.
Political analysts, meanwhile, have speculated that Prayut may nominate Chakthip as the next PM candidate for the ruling Palang Pracharath Party. Chakthip has completed his mandatory two-year break since his last day as a senator – on September 30, 2020 – before he can be named as a prime ministerial candidate.
“I currently don’t know who the party will choose as its PM candidate. The subject is still being discussed,” Prayut said.
Former party leader Newin ‘sets Bhumjaithai’s vision of 120 House seats’ in next election
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
The Bhumjaithai Party, a major ruling coalition partner, aims to win at least 120 House seats in the general election next year, the party’s leader said yesterday.
Bhumjaithai leader and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced his intention while he was visiting Newin Chidchob, president of the Buriram United FC and a former leader of the party, in Buri Ram province on Tuesday on the occasion of Newin’s 64th birthday.
Newin has washed his hands off politics to manage the football club, but he is believed to be the de facto leader of the Bhumjaithai.
Anutin led all Bhumjaithai MPs to pay their respects to Newin and wish him a happy birthday.
The public health minister denied skipping the weekly Cabinet meeting, explaining the meeting was postponed to Wednesday as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was making an inspection trip to Ubon Ratchathani on Tuesday to visit flood victims.
Anutin told reporters that Newin wanted his party to win at least 120 House seats.
The Election Commission has set May 7 as the tentative election date if the House completes its four-year term on March 23.
“So far whatever Newin has blessed us, it has come true,” Anutin said.
The public health minister said Bhumjaithai has been working hard for the public with tangibly implementable policies.
“Our works have created confidence in the public that if we form the next government, we will be able to do this or that for them,” Anutin said.
When asked by reporters whether MPs from other parties, who visited Newin on his birthday, would later join the Bhumjaithai ahead of the next election, Anutin replied that the MPs simply came to greet Newin.
“Newin was in politics for 30 to 40 years so a lot of politicians are close to him. They don’t have to be Bhumjaithai members,” Anutin said.
He said his party has not been coercing MPs from other parties to defect to Bhumjaithai.
“But we are looking for capable people to work for the country. If such capable people are with other parties, we may invite them to join us to work together. This is a normal thing in politics,” Anutin said.
The public health minister expressed confidence that the next election would be held on schedule, although the organic law on the election of MPs has not been enacted yet. The MPs election amendment bill is pending enactment with affirmation by the EC and Parliament after a vetted draft failed to clear its third reading earlier.
Anutin added that he had talked to Prayut recently and he believed the prime minister might wait for the right timing before dissolving the House ahead of March 23.
PM calls for all-out efforts by state agencies to deal with floods, mitigate their impact on the people
MONDAY, OCTOBER 03, 2022
THE NATION
Flood prevention and mitigation agencies have been urged to work together in dealing with the ongoing flood crisis in the country.
During the meeting on Monday at the Interior Ministry in Bangkok, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha urged government agencies nationwide to prepare plans to deal with floods in advance and create awareness among residents.
He said officials and machines must be arranged to assist people, and obstacles on waterways, such as weeds and garbage, must be cleared.
He added that it would be necessary to dredge canals and build additional floodgates to mitigate the impact of the floods on the people.
“Agencies responsible for overseeing construction sites must ensure that the projects will not affect water drainage,” he said.
“Meanwhile, traffic lights and signposts in flood-prone areas must be set up clearly to prevent accidents.”
He said local agencies must survey for damage once the situation improves so the government and related agencies can provide assistance to flood victims effectively.
He added that the government is ready to support related agencies on mitigating flood impact on people.
Prayut also urged related agencies to work together on assisting flood victims, adding that evacuation centres, food, drinks and clothes must be sufficient to gain the confidence of the people.
“Provincial governors, district chiefs and village headmen are essential to enable residents to gain access to government agencies’ assistance,” he added.
Meanwhile, Interior Minister Anupong Paochinda said 81,660 households in 71 provinces, including Bangkok, have been affected by flooding caused by tropical storm Noru.
Citing the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department’s report, he said the flood had injured seven people and killed 19 people.
“About 1.2 million rai [192,000 hectares] of plantations were damaged due to floods,” he said.
Citing the weather forecast from October to December this year by Thailand Meteorological Department, he added that the country still had to monitor for possible tropical storms as it would affect the upper and central parts of the South.
“Related agencies must work closely to deal with any situation that may occur and mitigate the impact on people as much as possible,” he said.
Bangkokians advised to work from home today until Friday as more floods expected
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 05, 2022
THE NATION
Bangkokians have been asked to work from home, or at least leave work early, from Wednesday to Friday to escape more flooding in the city caused by heavy rain and rising tide.
Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) deputy governor Tavida Kamolvej said on Tuesday the Chao Phraya River could overflow from Wednesday due to rising tide coupled with upstream runoffs and heavy rains influenced by the southwest monsoon.
She said the BMA is trying to manage the Chao Phraya level to prepare for additional water in the next couple of days. However, if the excessive water cannot be “pushed” into the Gulf in time, the river could overflow and flood riverside communities.
“We would therefore like to ask government agencies and private companies to allow their staff to work from home from October 5 to 7, or at least let them leave work early during this period,” she said.
The move is expected to help reduce traffic congestion and spare most people from getting stranded due to heavy rain and floods.
The BMA has been sending teams to survey river dams and flood levees every day so that communities in flood prone areas are alerted in time if the water reaches a critical level, Tavida added.
The Thailand Meteorological Department earlier forecast that high tide is expected in the Chao Phraya River from today, Wednesday, to Thursday next week (October 13).
It warned that increased water discharge rate from the Chao Phraya Dam and heavy rains influenced by the southwest monsoon would cause the river to rise by 1.7 to 2 metres above median sea level.
Over 3.28 million rai in 25 provinces swamped by floods: GISTDA
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 05, 2022
THE NATION
More than 3.28 million rai across 25 provinces in the North, the Northeast, the Central region and the East have been affected by floods, the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) said on Tuesday.
GISTDA reported the flood situation after studying information from the Sentinel-1 satellite.
Of the 3,289,514 rai affected by floods, precisely 526,577 rai are rice fields, the agency said.
It estimated floods have affected at least 758,000 people, damaged some 3,700 houses, and overwhelmed 1,463 kilometres of roads.
The provinces with the largest flooded areas are Nakhon Sawan (650,967 rai), Ayutthaya (430,745 rai), Phichit (402,083 rai), Suphan Buri (356,651 rai) and Sukhothai (269,629 rai), while Nong Bua Lamphu has the least at 287 rai.
GISTDA said it had sent satellite images to various organisations to support their missions in planning and monitoring the flood situation.
The agency has also adjusted its satellite signal reception to monitor the situation in areas that are expected to be flooded.
Rising tides may force Chao Phraya to overflow, BMA warns
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
Bangkok’s riverside communities have been warned of the possibility of the Chao Phraya River overflowing this week due to rising tide coupled with runoffs and heavy rain.
The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) issued the warning on Tuesday, saying higher sea tides may make the river overflow from Wednesday to next Thursday. The warning posted on the BMA Facebook page also said that runoffs from upstream areas and heavy rains influenced by the southwest monsoon would also raise the river’s level.
The Chao Phraya may rise by 1.7 to 2 metres above median sea level, BMA said.
The BMA warning matched similar advisories from the Office of Natural Water Resources (ONWR) and the Navy’s Hydrographic Department.
The ONWR warned people living along the Chao Phraya and Pa Sak rivers to watch out for overflows because the Chao Phraya and Pa Sak Chonsalit dams have increased their water discharge to accommodate continuous heavy rain.
On Monday, the Hydrographic Department predicted rising tides from 6am to 7pm from Wednesday to next Thursday, which it said would affect the level of the Chao Phraya River.
The department said rising sea tide will increase the level of the river near the Julachomklao Fort and nearby areas by as much as 2m above sea level.
More than 220 large pumps installed to drain floodwater from Bangkok, neighbouring provinces
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
The Royal Irrigation Department has installed more than 220 large water pumps to drain floodwater from Bangkok and surrounding provinces, Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Chalermchai Sreeon said on Tuesday.
Chalermchai said the pumps were installed at pumping station and water gates to drain floodwater into the Chao Phraya River on the western side of Bangkok, to the Nakhon Nayok and Bang Pakong rivers on the eastern side and into the Gulf of Thailand on the south.
The minister said the pumps were draining water at 45 million cubic metres per day, or about 525 cubic metres per second.
Chalermchai added that the department has been ordered to install more large water pumps to try to minimise impact from flooding in Bangkok and suburban areas.
Counting from July 11 this year, the Royal Irrigation Department has drained about 2 billion cubic metres of water, or about two and a half times the capacity of the Pasak Dam, into the sea with the installed pumps ahead of the rainy season, Chalermchai said. The operation to speed up water flows into the sea would continue with no time frame, he added.
The Royal Irrigation Department and the Agriculture Ministry have been trying to manage water flow above and below the Chao Phraya Dam with all channels and in all directions, using both canals and water retention areas to minimise flooding, Chalermchai said. The department has also removed weeds from all waterways to speed up the water flow, the minister added.
Thailand’s most dangerous job in 2021: building construction
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2022
THE NATION
The latest report from the Workmen’s Compensation Fund (WCF) revealed that jobs at construction sites were the riskiest, with an unusually high number of injuries and deaths.
Bangkok was also named as the leading province with the highest number of accidents.
According to the WCF report released on Tuesday, the four jobs with the highest percentage of accidents in 2021 were:
• Building construction: 5.77% riskiest with 4,516 injured or killed
• Manufacturing of auto parts and accessories: 2.57% riskiest with 2,014 workers injured or killed
• Metalworking lathe operation: 2.07% riskiest with 1,623 workers injured or killed
• Construction of roads, bridges, tunnels: 1.89% riskiest with 1,481 workers injured or killed
The WCF report also named five provinces with the highest percentage of injuries and deaths in 2021:
• Bangkok: 23.57% with 18,445 workers hurt or killed
• Samut Prakan: 11.75% with 9,191 workers hurt or killed
• Chonburi: 7.64% with 5,977 workers injured or killed
• Samut Sakhon: 7.56% with 5,916 workers injured or killed
• Pathum Thani: 4.94% with 3,869 workers injured or killed
According to WCF, the jobs that took the highest number of lives and caused most injuries based on provinces are:
• Bangkok – building construction: 40.63% with 1,835 workers
• Samut Prakan – manufacturing of auto spare parts: 25.62% with 516 workers injured or killed
• Samut Prakan – metalwork lathe operation: 30.01% with 487 workers injured or killed
• Bangkok – construction of roads, bridges, tunnels: 38.62% with 572 workers hurt or killed