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Singapore economy tipped to grow 5.5% next year; vaccines could push growth higher (nationthailand.com)

Singapore economy tipped to grow 5.5% next year; vaccines could push growth higher

Dec 10. 2020The economists also expect GDP to shrink by 4.5 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of this year. ST PHOTO: KUA CHEE SIONG 

By Ovais Subhani
The Straits Times/ANN

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s economy will grow by 5.5 per cent in 2021 to end the nation’s worst recession ever, induced by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a central bank survey of professional forecasters.

The pace of growth can be even higher if the pandemic is contained by a successful deployment of vaccines worldwide, they said.

The prediction made by 23 economists and analysts in the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) quarterly survey was unchanged from the previous forecast made in September.

However, their forecast range for 2021 growth narrowed to 5 per cent to 5.9 per cent from 4 per cent to 5.9 per cent, the MAS survey report released on Wednesday (Dec 9) showed.

The private forecast comes after the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in November forecast growth rebounding by 4 per cent to 6 per cent in 2021 – the most since at least 2011 when the economy expanded by 6.3 per cent.

For 2020, the private forecasters expect gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 6 per cent, also unchanged from the previous survey. That compares to MTI’s forecast of a 6.5 per cent to 6 per cent contraction in 2020.

The economists also expect GDP to shrink by 4.5 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of this year, after contracting by 5.8 per cent in the September to October period – a smaller decline than their forecast of a 7.6 per cent drop in the previous survey.

For the jobs market, they expect the unemployment rate to reach 3.7 per cent at the end of 2020, up from their estimate of 3.5 per cent in the previous survey.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index and the MAS core inflation in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to come in at minus 0.3 per cent and minus 0.2 per cent respectively.

Three-quarters of the respondents in the MAS survey expect private residential property prices to pick up in the October to December period compared with the previous quarter, while the rest believe these will remain stable.

Looking ahead, the containment of the pandemic, attributable primarily to the widespread global deployment of a vaccine, again emerged as the most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore’s growth outlook – with 77.8 per cent ranking it as the top upside risk.

The prospect of reopening borders to international travel was seen as a potential upside by 44.4 per cent of the respondents who also identified stronger-than-expected manufacturing sector performance led by electronics and pharmaceuticals production, as well as fiscal stimulus, in support of Singapore’s recovery.

On the downside, a further deterioration in the Covid-19 situation – due to new outbreaks or delays in vaccine development – once again topped the list of downside risks to Singapore’s growth outlook in the survey.

The threat was identified by 88.9 per cent of survey respondents and 72.2 per cent of them ranked it as the most important downside risk.

The economists were also concerned about risks stemming from an earlier-than-expected pullback in macroeconomic policy support globally, resulting in a premature tightening in global financial conditions and weaker demand due to fiscal consolidation.

This risk was identified by 44.4 per cent of respondents, up from 20 per cent in the previous survey.

An escalation in United States-China tensions was identified by 27.8 per cent as a downside risk, compared with 60 per cent in the previous survey.

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China’s GDP growth expected to be 8.8% in 2021 (nationthailand.com)

China’s GDP growth expected to be 8.8% in 2021

Dec 10. 2020A technician works on the production line of a car component manufacturer in Anshan, Liaoning province. [Photo/Xinhua] 

By SHI JING
China Daily/ANN

Recovery momentum in major sectors drives expansion, says KPMG report

China’s GDP growth rate is expected to touch 8.8 percent in 2021, thanks to the robust recovery momentum seen in major economic sectors, global consultancy KPMG said in a report.

With per capita disposable income of Chinese people returning to the positive territory during the third quarter of the year, consumption has also been staging a rebound. Consumer optimism and the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic control and prevention measures will further unlock the offline shopping potential in the subsequent months. The continued turnaround in consumption and service sectors will be the major economic driver next year, said Kang Yong, chief economist at KPMG China.

As outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) proposals, manufacturing, especially the high-end manufacturing sector, will become a major driving force of China’s long-term economic growth. KPMG expects the development of high-tech manufacturing and industrial upgrades to stimulate investment over the next 12 months. As privately owned enterprises account for 90 percent of China’s manufacturing sector, stronger investment data on manufacturing will reflect the improvement of the private sector, said Kang.

Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s export value increased by 2.4 percent on a yearly basis during the first 10 months of this year, exceeding market expectations. But the value of the global trade in goods contracted by 14 percent on a yearly basis during the first six months, according to World Trade Organization estimates.

Some of the global orders transferred to China this year, thanks to the country’s earlier recovery from the pandemic, have fueled the surge in exports, said Kang. Since the demand gap still exists in some overseas markets due to the pandemic, China’s export value will remain at a relatively high level next year, he said.

While concerns were being expressed on foreign investment as the pandemic spread globally at the beginning of the year, the value of actually utilized foreign capital grew by 6.4 percent on a yearly basis in China in the first 10 months. As estimated by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global foreign capital investment will slump by up to 40 percent this year.

“China’s large and rapidly expanding market, combined with its complete industrial system, high-quality infrastructure and deepened opening-up policies, are all huge attractions for foreign capital. While many industrial chains were hit by the pandemic, the resilience of the supply chains will top the company’s global mapping agenda and prompt adjustments,” said Kang.

Meanwhile, KPMG also foresees continued financial opening-up in 2021, which will further facilitate overseas investment in renminbi-denominated financial assets. Therefore, the renminbi exchange rate will likely remain stable next year, promising some room for appreciation. But companies must also keep an eye on the changes in monetary and fiscal policies, KPMG said.

With the official signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement on Nov 15, economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region will be further strengthened next year, said Kang. The regulations regarding tariff, investment negative list and e-commerce specified in the RCEP agreement will further consolidate the economic and trade ties among member states, which are conducive to more flexible industrial mapping within the region, said Kang.

Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments, also confirmed the positive outlook on the improved profitability of Chinese companies, thanks to the earlier recovery of the economy. Structural growth impetus from consumption, new technologies and green energy will further elevate the market performance, he said.

Given China’s steadily growing GDP, market giant BlackRock said in its 2021 investment report that China is a “distinct pole of global growth”, which is also “an investment destination separate from emerging markets”.

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Asian nations could mandate COVID-19 shots for travellers, AirAsia chief says (nationthailand.com)

Asian nations could mandate COVID-19 shots for travellers, AirAsia chief says

Dec 10. 2020

By The Star/ANN

KUALA LUMPUR: Governments in Asia could require inbound travellers to receive COVID-19 vaccinations, AirAsia Group’s Chief Executive Officer said on Wednesday, with such conditions expected to become a trend in the region.

“I foresee in Asia anyway, I think they won’t let anyone in without a vaccination,” AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes said at a CAPA Centre for Aviation event.

Fernandes said airlines are not likely to set such requirements for travellers.

“It’s not up to the airlines to decide. It’s for governments to decide. It’ll be the country that’ll decide if they will allow people to come in if they are not vaccinated,” he said.

Aviation industry opposition to requiring mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for passengers has intensified as impending drug approvals trigger a debate over their role in air travel.

Qantas Airways was the first airline to say it will require a COVID-19 vaccination for passengers on future international flights, which are now mostly idle because of Australia’s strict border controls.

“We believe that vaccinations will be required for entry to many countries in the future. And for a period of time, parallel requirements of (being) vaccinated or pre-flight negative tests,” said Todd Handcock, the Asia Pacific president of Collinson Group, which owns Priority Pass airport lounges.

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Japan govt OKs new stimulus package worth ¥73.6 trillion (nationthailand.com)

Japan govt OKs new stimulus package worth ¥73.6 trillion

Dec 10. 2020Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga attends a meeting of the government’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy at the Prime Minister’s Office on Tuesday. Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura is seated next to him. (The Yomiuri Shimbun) 

By The Japan News/ANN

The government on Tuesday approved an additional economic package worth ¥73.6 trillion, including ¥51.7 trillion for projects aimed at re-configuring the nation’s economy and bringing it back to pre-pandemic levels. It also contains measures aimed at accelerating the introduction of digital technology and the reduction of carbon emissions.

The package was adopted at an extraordinary Cabinet meeting on the day. Part of the funding for its various measures will consist of ¥40 trillion in fiscal spending — including money to be paid by local governments — in a third supplementary budget for fiscal 2020 through next March and the initial budget for fiscal 2021, jointly deemed “the 15-month budget.”

At a meeting of the government’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy held at the Prime Minister’s Office on Tuesday, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said, “In addition to financial support for medical institutions and helping companies raise funds, measures aimed at new growth have also been incorporated [in the package].”

The latest package follows two extra budgets for the current fiscal year that were earmarked to fight the novel coronavirus. It will bring the value of stimulus measures so far to a total of more than ¥307 trillion, equivalent to 60 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product. The government estimates that the stimulus measures will boost the nation’s GDP by 3.6 percent.

The latest package mainly comprises 1) measures to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus infections (¥6 trillion); 2) spending to re-configure the nation’s economy and bring it back to pre-pandemic levels (¥51.7 trillion); and 3) measures to prevent or mitigate damage from and enhance resilience against natural disasters (¥5.9 trillion).

As it is difficult to predict future events, the government will secure a reserve fund of ¥5 trillion in the initial budget for fiscal 2021.

Of the ¥40 trillion in fiscal spending, ¥30.6 trillion will be provided by the central government and ¥1.7 trillion by local governments, while the remaining ¥7.7 trillion will come from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, under which the government secures funds and extends low-interest loans to companies.

With such funding as loans from financial institutions added to the fiscal spending, the latest package will be worth a total of ¥73.6 trillion.

As budgetary measures accompanying the additional economic package, the government plans to include ¥19.2 trillion in the general account and ¥1 trillion in the special account of the third supplementary budget, which will be compiled next week.

The government will reinforce medical service systems to prevent the spread of infections, through such measures as securing more hospital beds. It will increase emergency comprehensive support grants to medical institutions, which are provided through prefectural governments, while promoting increased production of testing kits and greater readiness to administer vaccinations.

As part of efforts to re-configure the nation’s economy, the government will establish a ¥2 trillion fund for companies developing green technologies and work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to effectively zero by 2050.

The government will also extend through end of next June its Go To Travel campaign to promote domestic travel and its Go To Eat program for dining out, in a bid to balance measures to combat the coronavirus and to keep economic activities going.

The government will extend through next February the employment adjustment subsidy, a special measure to subsidize companies that have had to pay allowances to employees taking time off work. It will also expand the scale of its projects aimed at reinforcing the nation’s resilience against natural disasters.

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S. Korea on alert over spreading bird flu, more highly pathogenic cases likely in store (nationthailand.com)

S. Korea on alert over spreading bird flu, more highly pathogenic cases likely in store

Dec 10. 2020Quarantine officials prepare to cull ducks at a farm in Naju, 355 kilometers south of Seoul, on Wednesday. (Yonhap) 

By The Korea Herald/ANN

South Korea reported yet another suspected highly pathogenic avian influenza case from a poultry farm Thursday, raising concerns that the bird flu outbreak is spreading nationwide despite enhanced measures.

Authorities are investigating the suspected case in Naju, 355 kilometers south of Seoul, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. The samples were gathered from a slaughter house.

The farm had killed all of its 22,000 ducks to be sold at market, but they were discarded after the suspected case.

Another duck farm from the same town confirmed a highly pathogenic bird flu case the previous day. If found to be seriously contagious in a test, it will become the third such case from South Jeolla Province alone.

So far, South Korea has reported seven highly pathogenic avian influenza cases from poultry farms across the country, including two from Gyeonggi Province that surrounds the capital city.

There were also infection cases from North Chungcheong, North Gyeongsang and North Jeolla provinces.

South Korea completed the culling of more than 4 million poultry from affected farms late Wednesday, covering 2.42 million chickens, 1.01 million quails and 572,000 ducks.

Authorities cull poultry within a 3-km radius of infected farms. Birds at farms with suspected cases are also destroyed.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is contagious and can cause severe illness and even death in poultry.

The country reported its first highly pathogenic case in 32 months in late October in Cheonan, 92 kilometers south of Seoul, from wild birds.

Since then, a total of 22 cases have been found from wild bird habitats across the country, according to the latest data provided by the ministry. Health authorities are investigating more than 10 suspected cases among wild birds. (Yonhap)