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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023115

Thai economy will buck the global trend and fully recover next year: seminar

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Nongluck Ajanapanya

Economists and business leaders are optimistic that Thailand’s economy will fully recover next year, thanks to foreign tourist inflows, but more transformation is required for the kingdom to achieve resurrection rather than just survive the recession.

They were speaking at the “Go Thailand: Recession or Resurrection” seminar on Wednesday, which was sponsored by Nation Group’s Thansettakij.

The opening speech was delivered by Fabrizio Zarcone, World Bank country manager for Thailand. The outlooks for the global economy and Thailand are moving in opposite directions, he said.

The global economy is expected to enter a recession next year, particularly in major economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, but East Asia and the Pacific, including Thailand, are showing signs of recovery.

The recovery of Thailand’s tourism sector and strong private spending are driving this expansion, Zarcone said.

In order to sustain the country’s growth and resilience, Zarcone said four initiatives are necessary: fiscal consolidation, increasing social assistance to the most vulnerable groups, investing in human capital, and making the tax collection system fairer and more efficient.

Win Phromphaet, Krungsri executive vice president and head of the high net-worth division at Bank of Ayudhya, agreed with the World Bank’s forecast for the global economy.

Win Phromphaet

Win advised Thai retail investors to diversify their investments across multiple assets. Bonds and debt instruments should account for more than half of the investment portfolio, with a small portion allocated to alternative assets such as gold and real estate, he said.

Equities still have a chance to profit, but investors must study them carefully before investing, Win added.

Meanwhile, high inflation, household debt, and domestic politics will be major concerns in the coming year.

Somchai Lertsutiwong

Somchai Lertsutiwong, executive vice president and marketing at Advanced Info Service, encouraged businesses of all sizes to undergo digital transformation.

Digital and advanced technology will add more value and efficiency to the country’s products and services and help Thailand remain globally competitive, Somchai said.

Yuthasak Supasorn

Yuthasak Supasorn, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said the tourism industry would be the country’s hero for the foreseeable future.

However, Thailand’s tourism industry will no longer prioritise quantity. As a result, all industry participants must upgrade their services and products by incorporating new technology and implementing the Bio-Circular-Green economic model.

“Our target tourists will be high quality and high spending,” Yuthasak said.

Wallaya Chirathivat

Wallaya Chirathivat, deputy chief executive officer of Central Pattana, listed three factors that will propel retail businesses: business transformation, urbanisation, and sustainability.

She defined transformation as keeping businesses up to date on consumer trends so that they can meet the needs of all customer segments. The goal of urbanisation is to achieve equitable income distribution and to improve employee skills. Sustainability, she said, is showing kindness to local communities and the environment.

Thanathip Supapradit

Thanathip Supapradit, CEO of Thonburi Healthcare Group, stated that a good strategy for doing business in the healthcare sector is to plan for expansion in growing markets while supporting people in slowing markets.

He noted that doing so not only helps to sustain its business and employees, but also wins the hearts and brand loyalty of patients.

Although he is confident that Thailand will remain the top healthcare hub in Southeast Asia and one of the top in the Asia-Pacific region, the country’s healthcare sector faces a lack of skilled workers.

He called for more investment in human capital and digital technology.

Somporn Suebthawilkul

Somporn Suebthawilkul, managing director at Dhipaya Insurance, said that global uncertainty was encouraging more businesses to see the importance of both life and non-life insurance.

The insurance industry will have a good year next year, he said.

Nongluck Ajanapanya

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023113

Farm output set to accelerate its rise next year: Office of Agricultural Economics

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Thailand’s gross domestic product of the agriculture industry expanded 0.8% this year over last year and will rise another 2-3 percent next year, according to the Office of Agricultural Economics.

It cited favourable weather, an increase in rain, as two major factors driving growth this year. Rising prices for crops also encouraged farmers to plant more, the office said.

It said government efforts – such as using technology to reduce production costs, improving agriculture products to meet standards and expanding offline and online marketing channels – increased production and sales of farmer goods.

Government stimulus measures helped increase consumption of agricultural products, while the easing of restrictions and subsequent economic recovery are leading to an increase of exports of Thai agricultural products, the office said.

The industry has faced some headwinds. The Office of Agricultural Economics said it was severely affected by the La Nina weather phenomenon and storms in the second half of this year, especially tropical storm “Noru” which triggered flooding in the North, Northeast and Central regions.

“Meanwhile, rising product prices, such as fuel, fertiliser, pesticide and animal feed, caused the production cost of the agricultural sector to increase,” the office said.

Uncertainty over animal disease outbreaks, the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s Zero-Covid policy and a global economic slowdown also affected the country’s export of agricultural products.

The office expects Thailand’s agriculture GDP to expand by 2-3% next year due to ample water resources, government support and economic expansion.

“However, it is necessary to follow various factors that would affect the country’s agriculture sector, such as climate change, rising production cost, animal disease outbreak, economic slowdown, currency exchange volatility, geopolitical conflicts and new Covid-19 waves,” the office added.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023112

Digital firm outlines three top cybersecurity threats for businesses next year

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Ransomware, data breach, and supply-chain attacks are the top cybersecurity threats for businesses around the world and they are likely to cause damage of 8 trillion US dollars (280 trillion baht), warns Bluebik Group, a business advisory firm with digital expertise.

Pochara Arayakarnkul, chief executive of Bluebik, said that the digital transformation of businesses over recent years has made them more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats.

“Cybersecurity has become one of the top concerns for corporate leaders around the world,” he said.

Digital transformation allows businesses to benefit from the latest technologies involving cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the Internet of Things. However, the new ecosystem’s complexity leaves loopholes for cybercriminals to exploit.

The finance, healthcare, hospital, retail and hotel sectors have become more vulnerable to cyber attacks, the Bluebik CEO said.
Malware known as “ransomware-as-a-service” has become the top cybersecurity threat as it spreads fast and is readily available in the online black market, according to Pochara.

In the third quarter of this year, more than 58% of organisations in the Americas reported that they became victims of such malware and had to pay an average ransom of US$250,000 (8.7 million baht), according to Bluebik, citing reports from cybersecurity agencies in North America.

Supply-chain attacks are also expected to be a top cybersecurity threat next year. Hackers target organisations with strong systems against cyber threats that may have some weaknesses in their “back office” system for customers.

Over the past year, more than 54% of organisations surveyed said they experienced third-party attacks, according to the Ponemon Institute, which studies information security and privacy issues.
Data breach has also become a top cybersecurity threat as cyber criminals steal confidential information, trade secrets and personal data online.

IBM estimated that each data breach cost Southeast Asian businesses damage estimated at $2.8 million (98 million baht) this year. More than 83% of the organisations surveyed became a victim of data breach more than once.

Meanwhile, Polnsutee Thanesniratsai, director of Bluebik Titans Co Ltd, said that businesses have to take measures to prevent cyber attacks that could damage not only their finances but also their reputation. He suggested a “cyber resilience” approach to deal with the issue. It comprises five measures:

– Managing cybersecurity as an enterprise risk,

– Executives play a key role in governance and fostering a culture of cybersecurity vigilance,

– Executives closely oversee cybersecurity efforts,
– Maintaining compliance with cybersecurity laws and regulations, and

– Implementing essential cybersecurity hygiene.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023110

Thailand’s job creation recovers in Q3, but Gen Y’s NPLs a cause for worry: NESDC

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Thailand’s job creation in the third quarter improved, but Gen Y people, who are the main work force, still contributed to a high rate of non-performing loans (NPLs), the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported.

In its report on Thai employment and society, the NESDC Office said on Wednesday that about 39.6 million people were employed in the third quarter, an increase of 2.1% from the same period of last year.

The NESDC said most of the employment — 27.2 million jobs — were in the agricultural sector, which saw a 4.3% increase in employment.

The retail sector saw a 4.5% increase in employment, hotels and restaurants 8.3%, and production a 1.4% increase.

The NESDC Office said the third quarter saw employees of all sectors on average work 42.5 hours per week while employees of the private sector worked 46.7 hours per week. About 6.8 million workers work overtime while the number of those who are virtually unemployed or work fewer than four hours a week, dropped to 1.9 million, similar to the pre-Covid situation.

The third quarter saw 490,000 workers unemployed, or 1.23% of the whole workforce, while real unemployment fell to 1.99%, which was a reduction for both workers who used to work and those who have never been employed, the NESDC Office added.

The office noted that while the employment rate rose in the third quarter, the real salary rates of both the private sector and all sectors contracted by 1.7% and 3.1% compared to the same quarter of last year.

The NESDC Office said there are 25 million debtors in the loan system monitored by the Credit Bureau during the third quarter. The debtors are divided by types of loans as:

– Credit card debt (529 billion baht)

– Personal loans (2.5 trillion baht)

– Auto loans (2.5 trillion baht)

– Housing loans (4.7 trillion baht)

– Agricultural loans (1 trillion baht).

The NESDC Office said overall NPLs amounted to 1.09 trillion, or 8.4 %, a drop from 8.6% (1.1 trillion baht) during the same period of last year.

The NESDC Office said auto loans and personal loans were most worrying.

It said about 1.08 million accounts of auto loans were approved during the past nine months and 53% of them are Gen Y people, who have either defaulted on the loans or had late payments of debt.

The NESDC Office said the auto loans saw 6.5% of NPLs, similar to the same rate of the previous quarter and the Gen Y debtors, who are between 25-42 years old, became the biggest group of NPLs debtors amounting to 340 billion baht of NPLs, or 92,000 NPL accounts.

The NESDC Office noted that the Gen Y workers, who are 25 to 42 years old, are the main workforce of the country. The NPLs of this group indicated rising cost and rising interest rates so the NESDC has recommended that the government implement more economic stimulus measures to increase the income of this group.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023099

Thai pet food firms urged to sniff out ‘big opportunity’ in China

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Thai pet food companies have been urged to tap China’s growing trend of pet ownership.

“Thailand has a chance to expand its pet food market share in China, thanks to Chinese people’s rising demand for pets,” said Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) director-general Phusit Ratanakul Sereroengrit on Thursday.

The value of China’s pet food market has surged from 105.80 billion yuan in 2019 to 140.10 billion yuan (700 billion baht) this year, Phusit said, citing a report from the Office of International Trade Promotion in Qingdao.

He said the majority of China’s pet food market is currently controlled by foreign companies, but domestic firms are developing pet food production facilities to take back market share. However, there are still big opportunities in China’s market for Thai pet food manufacturers, he added. He recommended e-commerce platforms, trade promotions, short video clips, and partnering with local celebrities as ways for Thai businesses to tap market opportunities. He said Thai pet foods are already available on Chinese e-commerce platforms such as JD.com and Taobao.

He also advised Thai businesses to study Chinese consumer behaviour and develop pet foods to meet their demands.

China consumers are increasingly keen on healthy pet foods made from natural or organic ingredients, he added.

Related stories:

• Baht hits 6-month high against dollar after US Fed meeting
• Thailand must boost competitiveness via law change to unleash business: Wissanu
• World Bank urges government to increase tax revenue and reduce inequality

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023098

Thailand must boost competitiveness via law change to unleash business: Wissanu

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

Thailand must boost its competitiveness by amending laws and regulations to promote ease of doing business, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam said on Wednesday.

Wissanu, the government’s legal expert, was speaking during his keynote address on “How unlocking laws and regulations can boost the country’s competitiveness” at the 2022 Sampao-Navathong awards.

The annual awards are organised by the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) and Board of Trade to honour government agencies that ease difficulties in business operations.

Wissanu said good laws and regulations are essential to create a supportive ecosystem for business activities covering labour, tax, facilities, environment and anti-corruption issues.

“Hence, acts, royal decrees, regulations, ministry announcements and orders need to be amended and reformed,” he said.

The government has spent years amending laws, but some legal changes to facilitate business were still incomplete due to the lengthy amendment process, Wissanu said.

Parliament’s dissolution and government agencies’ attitude had added to delays.

Wissanu said the current government’s reform plan covered the scrapping of outdated laws, updating laws with amendments and creating new laws.

He said government and private sector had improved almost 1,000 business processes, but laws and royal decrees took a lot of time to improve. He cited the Electronic-means Administrative Functions Act BE 2565 for digitalisation of government.

Wissanu said the attitude of government agencies towards facilitating business must change to enable faster amendment of laws that would boost Thailand’s competitiveness.

TCC chairman Sanan Angubolkul said the chamber and related agencies have improved 938 operations so far. This had reduced operating costs for businesses by 100 billion baht per year, which had also created opportunities for Thailand, he said.

The country now needed to accelerate foreign investment, said Sanan, adding that the Eastern Economic Corridor was ready to support investment from foreigners worldwide.

“Attracting investment is key to generating revenue for the country as domestic investment from the government and private sectors may not be enough for recovery,” he said.

Foreign investment brings the added benefit of knowledge exchange on new technologies, he said, urging the government and private sector to build an ecosystem to support foreign business and investment in Thailand.

Related stories:

• Baht hits 6-month high against dollar after US Fed meeting
• World Bank urges government to increase tax revenue and reduce inequality
• Japanese restaurants see record-breaking growth in Thailand

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023094

Baht hits 6-month high against dollar after US Fed meeting

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2022

The baht opened at 34.53 to the US dollar on Thursday, strengthening from Wednesday’s close of 34.57 to a six-month high.

The currency will likely move between 34.50 and 34.70 against the greenback during the day, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.

Poon said that the baht strengthened on dollar weakening and gold sales but cautioned the Thai currency could weaken if foreign investors begin selling Thai stocks due to a risk-off state in the US and Asian currency markets.

Moreover, foreign investors may begin selling Thai short- and long-term bonds amid dropping yields, especially after the US Federal Reserve approved a half-point interest rate hike on Wednesday. The baht had fallen to 34.745 about an hour after the start of trading on Thursday.

Poon estimated the baht’s key support level at 34.50 to the dollar.

He doubts the baht will weaken past its resistance level at 35 as most investors are waiting to sell the dollar or short the dollar-baht market.

Poon also advised investors to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in a highly volatile currency market.

Related stories

• Baht opens 34.58/dollar on Wed but all eyes on Fed meeting
• World Bank urges government to increase tax revenue and reduce inequality
• Baht weakens slightly as crucial US Fed meeting looms