The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped by 1.69 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 1,562.27 on Monday morning.
The SET Index is expected to fall to the support line between 1,555 and 1,560 after the US Federal Reserve declined to extend a post-pandemic exemption that lowered bank capital requirements, a Krungsri Securities analyst said.
“Besides, the index would be under pressure due to rising US bond yield and volatility in funds flows,” he said.
He recommended that investors buy:
▪︎ AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AAV, BA, CPN, CRC and MAJOR, which benefit from positive news of Covid-19 vaccine in Thailand.
▪︎ HANA, KCE, TU and CPF, which benefit from the weakening baht.
▪︎ ICHI, SAPPE, RBF, DOD, IP, TACC, GUNKUL, KISS and ZIGA, which benefit from positive news on hemp production and its general use.
The SET Index closed at 1,563.96 on Friday, down 4.86 points or 0.31 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt88.71 billion with an index high of 1,566.67 and a low of 1,554.96.
The price of gold was unchanged from Saturday’s close in morning trade on Monday, the Gold Traders Association reported.
As of 9.25am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,300 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,400, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,847.24 and Bt25,900, respectively.
Spot gold price dropped to US$1,736 (Bt53,642) per ounce after rising by $9.2 to $1,741.7 on Friday, the highest in three weeks, from uncertainty over inflation and the fall in the US stock market.
Hong Kong gold price dropped by HK$30 to $16,110 (Bt64,097) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.
Housing market in six provinces to start flourishing from next year, study shows
Mar 21. 2021
By The Nation
A study conducted by Krungsri Research indicates that the housing sector in six key provinces will pick up in 2022-2023 thanks to developers’ strategy of cutting prices to release stock.
The provinces, in this case, are Chiang Mai, Chonburi, Rayong, Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen and Phuket.
The research house also took a look at developers’ plans to expand investment in tourist and industrial centres to compete with developers in Bangkok and its adjoining areas. This is reflected by the average 8-per-cent rise in land price in the six provinces last year compared to 2019.
Krungsri Research estimates that Thailand’s housing sector will either stabilise or shrink slightly in 2021 compared to 2020 because the Covid-19 outbreak is still pressuring economic recovery.
Developers are currently focusing on releasing some 100,000 units, while homebuyers are holding off on purchases.
As a result, the number of new projects launched this year will be the same as last year, though in 2022-2023, the sector is likely to improve in line with economic recovery and return of tourists.
The Thai economy in 2021 is expected to grow at an average of 3 to 4 per cent from a 6.1 per cent contraction in 2020. Investment in infrastructure is also progressing, especially in the EEC area, which is helping the housing market in Chonburi and Rayong to recover faster than other provinces.
The tourism industry is also expected to gradually recover, as certain tourists, such as business travellers, health travellers or people from countries with low infection rates, start arriving.
If the country starts reopening soon, then the number of tourists will return to approximately 40 million by 2024, about the same as in 2019.
The government has also launched the Thailand Elite Card scheme, which grants foreigners a residence permit of up to 20 years, thus encouraging them to purchase a second home here.
Apart from reducing prices to release stock, developers are also focusing more on low-rise projects to target those who work from home as well as keep homes affordable for the locals.
Low-rise housing
New projects will shrink by 7.5 per cent this year, judging by the 16.7-per-cent drop in applications for low-rise housing construction permits in the first 10 months of 2020. Demand is expected to improve in 2022-2023 from the middle-income market looking for affordable houses.
High-rise housing
The recovery of condominiums is lower than low-rise projects. The launch of new projects is expected to drop by 35.7 per cent in 2021, judging by the 54.7-per-cent drop year-on-year in the number of applications for construction permits in the first 10 months of 2020.
The supply of new condominiums is rising in Rayong and Phuket to accommodate the expansion of industrial and tourism sectors.
Developers are now creating projects that serve changing consumer lifestyles, such as working at home, more attention to health and wellbeing, as well as safety features required by an ageing society.
However, the housing sector’s 2021-2023 growth can be hit by some factors, such as rising household debt cutting purchasing power, tougher loan-approval regulations and an oversupply of housing units.
The outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on March 24 could determine the direction of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the baht next week, experts at Kasikornbank said on Sunday.
Kasikorn Securities said the SET Index’s support line is between 1,530 and 1,550 points, while its resistance line is between 1,575 and 1,585 points.
The securities company advised investors to follow the MPC meeting, Thailand’s political situation, the US bond yield direction, the Covid-19 situation and US-China relations.
“US economic data that warrants close monitoring include new home sales, durable goods orders, consumer spending and manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Index [PMI],” Kasikorn Securities said.
“Other important factors that warrant close monitoring include the euro-zone’s manufacturing and services PMI.”
The SET Index closed at 1,563.96 on Friday, down 4.86 points or 0.31 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt88.71 billion with an index high of 1,566.67 and a low of 1,554.96.
Meanwhile, Kasikornbank forecast the baht would move between 30.70 and 31.10 to the US dollar next week.
The bank advised investors to follow the MPC meeting outcome, Thai February exports, US Federal Reserve chairman’s statement, US bond yield direction and Covid-19 outbreak.
“US economic data that warrants close monitoring include home sales, durable goods orders, consumer spending, inflation rate based on Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, Consumer Confidence Index, gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2020, weekly jobless claims and PMI,” Kasikornbank said.
“Other important factors that warrant close monitoring include China’s Loan Prime Rate, plus euro-zone and UK PMI.”
The baht closed at 30.83 to the dollar on Friday, weakening from 30.79 on Friday last week.
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