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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013986

The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.50 per cent to support the country’s economic recovery.

MPC secretary Piti Disyata said that the committee forecast GDP growth at 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 4.4 per cent in 2023 due to the recovery in domestic demand and the tourism sector.

He said the Omicron variant of Covid-19 had not affected the economy as much as other waves, while the sanctions on Russia would push up the prices, but it would not affect the overall recovery.

However, economic growth might get pressured by the shortage of materials in some industries and the increasing cost for both the household and business sectors in the vulnerable group.

He added that the inflation rate might hit 4.9 per cent in 2022 but fall to 1.7 per cent in 2023. The inflation rate could be more than 5 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2022 due to the energy prices and the food costs before decreasing in 2023.

The MPC estimated that the high rate might be pressured by cost-push inflation. Meanwhile, demand-pull inflation is still at a low level as incomes are recovering.

The MPC will closely monitor the situation to ensure that the inflation rate in the mid-term will be in line with monetary policy.

He added that the overall currency situation is still stable as liquidity in the currency system is high, but the distribution might be different in each economic sector.

Regarding the exchange rate, he said that the baht has weakened due to the worry about the Ukraine-Russia conflict and forecast that central banks will increase the interest rate.

The MPC has approved close monitoring of developments in the global and Thai currency markets and push the FX ecosystem continuously, especially supporting SME operators by preventing volatility. It also approved financial measures that would support economic recovery in the right aspects, because it is important to create recovery in an uncertain situation. The government should focus on generating revenue and easing the living costs for vulnerable groups and the monetary policy should also support liquidity and help ease the debt situation.

Published : March 30, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013968

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to rise to between 1,695 and 1,700 points on Wednesday before falling, Krungsri Securities said.

It said the index gained positive sentiment from progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks after Moscow promised to reduce military operations to facilitate upcoming negotiations.

However, Krungsri Securities predicted that the falling oil price and a change in the Thailand Futures Exchange series would cause volatility in the index.

It also advised investors to follow the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on Thailand’s interest rate and its economic direction.

“The interest rate is expected to be maintained at 0.5 per cent,” Krungsri Securities predicted.

It recommends the purchase of the following stocks as an investment strategy:

• GPSC, BGrim, SCGP and EPG, which would benefit from the falling oil price.

• KCE, Hana, SVI, BBIK, BE8 and ADD, which would gain from rising technology share prices.

• AOT, AAV, BA, Mint, Centel, ERW, BH and BDMS, which would benefit from further easing of Covid-19 restrictions.

The SET Index closed at 1,689.74 on Tuesday, up 5.44 points or 0.32 per cent. Transactions totalled 76.79 billion baht with an index high of 1,692.90 and a low of 1,686.84.

Published : March 30, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013951

The Tourism Council of Thailand hopes to see further relaxation of Covid measures to woo at least 16 million foreign tourists this year to revive the slumping industry.

The council held a joint press conference with the Tourism Authority of Thailand and the Rajamangala University of Technology Srivijaya to announce the survey of the confidence index of tourism business operators for the first quarter of 2022.

Council chairman Chamnarn Srisawad said in a statement that the index reading at 44 was a reflection that the tourism industry was still in a difficult situation, although it was better than the same period last year. Chamnarn said the index was a little bit lower than the previous quarter apparently because of concerns over the Omicron variant of Covid-19 virus.

He noted that the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war had caused fuel prices to increase by almost 40 per cent, resulting in higher cost of travel so local travel had slowed down in the first quarter.

Chamnarn said the survey found that 89 per cent of hotels and resorts were operating in the first quarter, showing almost all operators have resumed business.

But not many foreign tourists visited the Kingdom during the period, forcing some businesses to start laying off staff. It is expected that more staff would be laid off in the next quarter if the situation does not improve, he warned.

He said the survey found that 88 per cent of the hotels, which have resumed businesses, had only 30 per cent room occupancy and 95 per cent of hotels have lesser than half the pre-Covid income.

He said most hotel operators had called on the government to abolish RT-PCR tests for arriving foreign tourists.

Chamnarn noted that the tourism industry in other countries, including Europe and America as well as Asia, was improving because of their ease-of-travel policy. The countries have eased Covid measures to a point where almost no restrictions were left.

The improved situation around the world has given the council hope that the Thai tourism industry would see a revival to generate some 20 per cent of GDP and create 7.5 million jobs like in the pre-Covid period.

Chamnarn said to revive the industry, tourism must be redesigned to create balance in three dimensions: demand and supply, natural and manmade tourism, and city and community tourism.

To create supply-demand balance, the country would need 16 million foreign tourists and 75 million trips by domestic tourists to generate some THB1.2 trillion in tourism income to reach 40 per cent of the pre-Covid level.

He said the tourism industry must encourage tourists to visit manmade tourism sites to create a balance with natural tourism sites, which were overexploited in the the past. For example, health, sports and food tourisms should be promoted, Chamnarn said.

He said in the past, certain provinces had problems of over-tourism so there should be smart tourism innovations to distribute tourists to other sites to create a balance of city and community tourism.

Kitti Pornsiwakij, chairman of the council’s subcommittee on smart tourism, said the survey found that most tourism operators wanted easing of travel restrictions by having the government cancel the Thailand Pass system and end RT-PCR test on arrival for foreign tourists.

The tourism operators also called on the government to set up a fund to train personnel for the tourism industry and develop technologies and services for the industry.

Published : March 29, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013933

The baht opened at 33.79 to the US dollar on Tuesday, weakening from Monday’s close of 33.77 and continuing its six-week slide.

Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool predicted the Thai currency would move between 33.65 and 33.90 during the day.

Poon expected the baht to fluctuate in a wide range and test a new resistance level at 33.90 to the dollar, citing the impact on Thai exports and tourism of the Covid-19 situation in China.

He added that the baht would also face downward pressure from speculators seeking to purchase the low-lying Yen as Japanese companies approach the end of the fiscal year (March 31).

Poon said the baht’s slide would be limited if foreign investors decide against selling off Thai assets. Foreigner inflows recently returned to the Thai stock market, though sales of short-term bonds are slowing. However, foreign investors are now selling long-term bonds in Emerging Asia including Thailand, to ease the pressure of rising bond yields.

Poon expects the US 10-year bonds to hit their highest yields this year in May amid the expected interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. This should spur foreign inflows to Thai long-term bonds, he added.

The market is open to more risk but asset prices were fluctuating heavily, the analyst said. The supporting factor for the currency market was hope coming from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations, after Ukraine signalled it may adopt a neutral status.

However, China’s Covid-19 situation was pressuring the currency market after the officials announced the lockdown of Shanghai. This would affect economic recovery in China and globally while also driving down the price of crude oil from $114 to $108 per barrel.

Published : March 29, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013918

A shipment of processed chicken left Thailand’s shores on Monday for Saudi Arabia for the first time in 18 years after the two kingdoms recently normalised ties.

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit presided over a ceremony marking the first shipment of processed chicken at the Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) factory in Minburi. Also present were CPF CEO Prasit Boondoungprasert, secretary-general of the Central Islamic Committee Pol Maj-General Surin Palare, advisor to the commerce minister Mallikar Boonmeetrakul, director-general of the Department of International Trade Promotion Phusit Ratanakul Serirerngrit and Watnasak Sua-iam, director-general of the Department of Internal Trade.

Prasit thanked Jurin and Agriculture Minister Chalermchai Sri-on for negotiating the deal with Saudi authorities.

He said that thanks to the two ministers, five chicken-processing factories owned by CPF have been given the Saudi Arabian stamp of approval.

“This coordination with Saudi Arabia will boost the country’s chicken exports sustainably,” he said.

CPF expects to earn close to 500 million baht from the export of some 6,000 tonnes of processed chicken to Saudi Arabia this year.

Jurin, meanwhile, said the Monday shipment made history as it was the first step towards bilateral trade in 18 years. He added that Thai diplomats, in coordination with the Foreign Ministry, had negotiated the certification of 11 factories in Thailand to export chicken meat to the Middle Eastern country.

Jurin said 75 per cent of chicken consumed in Saudi Arabia is imported, 25 per cent of which is shipped from Ukraine and France. However, he said, the aim is for Thailand to soon become a key exporter of chicken to Saudi Arabia.

Thailand exported about 900,000 tonnes of chicken meat earning some 100 billion baht last year, Jurin said. He added that this amount would rise to about 980,000 tonnes per year now that the Saudi Arabian market has been opened to Thailand.

Diplomatic ties between the two countries have been on the rocks over the “Blue Diamond Affair”, in which hundreds of priceless jewels were stolen from Prince Faisal bin Fahd’s palace by a Thai janitor in 1989.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013898

The baht opened at 33.64 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from Friday’s close of 33.57.

The Thai currency is expected to move between 33.55 and 33.75 during the day and between 33.40 and 33.80 during the week, Krungthai market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.

Poon said the baht is likely to fluctuate in a wide range. However, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the policy interest rate might pressure the baht to weaken, he added.

Moreover, uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia conflict could add downward pressure on the baht and other currencies in Emerging Asia – China, India, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.

Poon said that investors should monitor transactions of foreign investors after they returned to the Thai stock market in force. Last week saw foreign investors purchase 5 billion baht worth of Thai stocks. Meanwhile, sales of short-term bonds are slowing.

He forecast a baht resistance level of 33.75, which would see exporters selling the dollar.

He added that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US Federal Reserve’s signalled interest-rate rise could help support the dollar.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40013895

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fall to between 1,665 and 1,670 points on Monday after the US Federal Reserve announced inflation had to be tackled as soon as possible, Krungsri Securities said.

The announcement sparked concern the Fed would raise the interest rate by 0.50 per cent in May, it said.

It added that the SET Index would also be under pressure from the falling oil price.

“However, window dressing and speculation in some stocks will help the index to rebound,” Krungsri Securities said.

It recommended the purchase of the following as an investment strategy:

• GPSC, BGRIM, SCGP and EPG would benefit from falling oil price.

• BDMS, BH, INTUCH, ADVANC, BTS and BEM which are defensive stocks.

• TTB, BBL, PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP, IVL, FORTH, HMPRO, CPALL, MAKRO, OSP and TWPC, whose first-quarter business turnover this year are expected to grow.

The SET Index closed at 1,676.80 on Friday, down 4.09 points or 0.24 per cent. Transactions totalled 62.11 billion baht.

Published : March 28, 2022

By : THE NATION