#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005535

Euro-area inflation jumps to decade-high 3% in test for ECB

Euro-area inflation jumped to the highest in a decade in August, testing policymakers insistence that a post-crisis spike in cost pressures should prove temporary.

Consumer prices rose 3%, exceeding the predictions of all 37 economists in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of core inflation that strips out volatile items such as energy and food reached 1.6%, the highest since 2012.

The data will heighten the European Central Bank’s communication challenge as a global supply squeeze and one-time factors drive up costs, while the pandemic threat persists. Viewing faster inflation as temporary, officials are keeping monetary policy looser than counterparts such as the Federal Reserve, which expects to wind down stimulus soon.

“Today’s release will cause some sweaty palms but has not given much evidence of more structural high inflation,” said Bert Colijn, an economist at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam. “This is not set to sway the ECB towards a more hawkish stance ahead of the September meeting.”

Euro-zone price growth may still keep accelerating for now. Imported inflation in Germany, the region’s largest economy, is running at 15%. Retailers across the 19-nation region plan to jack up prices in the next three months and consumers have already adjusted, saying they’re less likely to make major purchases in the coming year.

A separate report on Tuesday showed France’s inflation rate jumped in August by the most in almost two decades to 2.4%, the highest since 2018. In Italy meanwhile, the pace of price growth reached 2.6%, the fastest since 2012 and a half point above the median forecast of economists.

German bonds extended losses after the euro-zone data, with the yield on 10-year notes up two basis points at -0.42%.

Despite price growth running well above the 2% level the ECB aims to achieve in the medium term, officials led by President Christine Lagarde insist that it will slow again next year. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Monday he sees no risk of overheating in the currency bloc.

A temporary cut to Germany’s sales tax in the second half of last year is lifting inflation readings at the moment, with the country’s central bank expecting rates as high as 5% toward the end of 2021. This month’s rate is also bolstered by the timing of summer sales, which were delayed last year due to pandemic curbs.

With that backdrop, the ECB Governing Council’s view of inflation remains sanguine. While prices are accelerating, the outlook has become cloudier in recent weeks, with coronavirus infections on the rise again and the vaccination rate slowing down, increasing the threat of new restrictions.

According to Colijn at ING, faster inflation remains a risk, with question marks over whether higher raw-material and transport costs will pass through to goods, and if service-sector reopenings will cause price jumps.

“There is some evidence that this effect will start to become more prominent towards the end of the year,” he said. “So hold tight: inflation has the potential to go higher from here.”

Published : September 01, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005534

U.S. consumer confidence falls to six-month low on delta variant

U.S. consumer confidence dropped in August to a six-month low, suggesting concerns over the delta variant and elevated prices are weighing on Americans views of the economy now and in the coming months.

The Conference Board’s index fell to 113.8 from a revised 125.1 reading in July, according to the group’s report Tuesday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had called for a decline to 123.

The figures suggest the spread of the delta variant has dented consumers’ views of the economy and threatens to undermine spending on services. The latest spike in Covid-19 infections has already curbed restaurant reservations, airline travel and hotel occupancy. At the same time, Americans are paying more at the grocery store and at the gas pump, which may be further weighing on sentiment.

Stocks fluctuated following the report and Treasury yields edged higher.

The figures follow the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which plunged to the lowest level since 2011 in August as Americans grew more concerned about the economy’s prospects, inflation and the recent surge in coronavirus cases.

“Concerns about the Delta variant — and, to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices — resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

The Conference Board’s gauge of current conditions fell to 147.3, the lowest reading since April. Consumers’ views of present business conditions declined, while economic expectations dropped to 91.4, a seven-month low.

Consumers were less upbeat about their future income and job prospects. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” eased slightly from a multi-decade high.

Consumers said they were somewhat less likely to purchase cars, homes and appliances. Vacation plans for the next six months edged higher.

Published : September 01, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005531

Stocks drop with valuation near highest since 2000

The stock-market euphoria abated in the last trading day of August as investors assessed whether lofty valuations can withstand the unwinding of pandemic-era stimulus.

The S&P 500 edged lower, while European shares fell on signals the region’s central bank will start discussing a reduction of bond purchases. A decline in financial firms weighed on sentiment after Bloomberg News reported Wells Fargo & Co. risks regulatory action over the pace of restitution. Data Tuesday showed a slide in consumer confidence and the biggest jump in home prices in more than 30 years.

American equities still notched their seventh straight monthly advance — the longest winning streak since January 2018 — amid a tonic of strong corporate profits and moderate monetary policy. As the tapering debate heats up at a time when a coronavirus resurgence is delaying reopenings in some parts of the world, there’s been concern about an overstretched stock market. The S&P 500 is currently trading near its highest valuation levels since 2000.

“Markets are taking a little bit of a breather,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. After making it through strong economic data and stellar corporate earnings, “markets are now trying to grapple with: well, what’s next?”

Fourteen streaks of seven months or longer for the S&P 500 have occurred during the past 60 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. History points to three outcomes for the gauge after reaching such milestones.

Five of them ended in the next month as the index fell. Another four were followed by gains of no more than 3.2% before the streaks ended. The other five delivered advances of 9.7% or more before they concluded — including the most recent streak, which lasted 10 months and ran through January 2018.

Corporate insiders, whose buying correctly signaled the bear-market bottom in March 2020, are not afraid of chasing the record-setting rally. More than 1,000 executives and officers have snapped up shares of their own firms this month — the most since May of last year, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. EDT

– The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%

– The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.1%

– The MSCI World index was little changed

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

– The euro was little changed at $1.1807

– The British pound was little changed at $1.3749

– The Japanese yen was little changed at 110.01 per dollar

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys advanced three basis points to 1.30%

– Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to -0.38%

– Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 0.71%

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $68.50 a barrel

– Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,817.40 an ounce

Published : September 01, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005524

SET up for 8th successive day as trade volume soars

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,638.75 on Tuesday, up 4.98 points or 0.30 per cent. Transactions totalled THB117.90 billion with an index high of 1,643.76 and a low of 1,628.12 as the SET rose for an eighth successive day.

In the morning session, Krungsri Securities expected the index on Tuesday to rise to between 1,640 and 1,645 before falling back. It cited positive sentiment from the US Federal Reserve signalling it would not rush to raise the interest rate despite expected tapering of quantitative easing.

Market sentiment was also buoyed by the government’s move to ease lockdown measures as domestic infections decline, it added. 

However, the SET would face downward pressure from the MSCI rebalance to cut the weight of emerging-market shares by 0.03 per cent (around $112 million), said Krungsri Securities.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were BBL, GULF, KBANK, PTT, INTUCH, ADVANC, CPALL, KCE, GPSC and RPC.

Other Asian indices were up with one exception:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 28,089.54, up 300.25 points or 1.08 per cent.

China’s Shanghai SE Composite Index closed at 3,543.94, up 15.79 points or 0.45 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 14,328.38, down -94.98 points or 0.66 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 25,878.99, up 339.45 points or 1.33 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3,199.27, up 55.08 points or 1.75 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 17,490.29, up 93.77 points or 0.54 per cent.

Published : August 31, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005507

Gold price drops in the morning trade

The price of gold dropped by THB50 in morning trade on Tuesday.

AGold Traders Association report at 9.25am said the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,750 per baht weight and selling price THB27,850, while gold ornaments cost THB27,257.68 and THB28,350, respectively.

At close on Monday, the buying price of a gold bar was THB27,800 per baht weight and selling price THB27,900, while gold ornaments cost THB27,303.16 and THB28,400, respectively.

Published : August 31, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005504

Seven-day rising streak to continue for SET as lockdown eased

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index dropped by 1.12 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 1,632.65 on Tuesday morning.

The SET Index closed at 1,633.77 on Monday, up 22.57 points or 1.40 per cent. Transactions totalled THB117.38 billion with an index high of 1,634.92 and a low of 1,621.42 as the SET rose for a seventh successive day.

Krungsri Securities expected the index on Tuesday to rise to between 1,640 and 1,645 before alternating to weaken, as there is support for the market conditions after the US Federal Reserve signalled it would not rush to raise the interest rate, despite the reduction of the quantitative easing measure in 2021.

Krungsri Securities added that the index also gained positive sentiment from the government’s move to ease lockdown measures as domestic infections are declining. 

“However, there is an expectation of late-sell pressure from MSCI Rebalance reducing the weight of the emerging markets group by 0.03 per cent (around $112 million), which will pressure the index to weaken,” Krungsri Securities said.

It recommended selective buying as an investment strategy:

• AOT, KBANK, BBL, CPN, CRC, HMPRO, AAV, BA, MINT, AMATA and WHA, which would benefit from the country’s reopening.
• PSL, TTA and RCL, which would benefit from a rise in the freight rate.
• CKP, BANPU, GPSC, BCH and CHG, which would benefit from the growth in the third quarter.

Published : August 31, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005503

Easing of lockdown expected to strengthen baht though worries on Covid remain

The baht opened at 32.44 to the US dollar on Tuesday, unchanged from Monday’s closing rate.

The Thai currency is likely to move between 32.35 and 32.50 during the day, Krungthai Bank market strategist Poon Panichpibool said.

The baht was likely to strengthen due to economic recovery from the easing of the lockdown, which prompted foreign investors to invest in Thai assets last week.

Poon was concerned about the Covid-19 situation in Thailand, as he was not sure if the spread of the virus had been contained because enough proactive testing was not being done. The positive rate in Thailand was higher than 20 per cent, while the World Health Organization recommends it should be lower than 5 per cent.

He added that the baht was likely to fluctuate and weaken as the situation did not clearly point to improvement. He suggested keeping an eye on the virus situation 3-4 weeks after the first week of the lockdown easing.

The support level of the baht would be from 32.30 to 32.40, which is the price range importers are waiting for to buy dollars.

The Bank of Thailand might help the baht avoid volatility and ensure it moves within its range in the short term.

Published : August 31, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005485

Gasoline jumps, oil falls as Ida landfall seen sparing rigs

U.S. gasoline futures jumped after Hurricane Ida barreled ashore in Louisiana, disrupting processing facilities. Oil reversed early gains as local rigs may have escaped significant damage and the OPEC+ producers cartel is expected on Wednesday to endorse a supply increase.

Gasoline for October spiked more than 4% in New York before paring its advance, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell around 1%. Last week, WTI rallied 10% as investors wagered global demand would recover from the setback posed by the spread of the delta coronavirus variant.

Both crude oil and gasoline have been hit by volatile trading this month as investors weighed the challenge to consumption posed by the resurgence of the pandemic in parts of Asia, the U.S. and Europe. This week, traders will focus on the fallout from Ida, as well as the likelihood that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will go ahead with an increase in output when they meet.

“The market will be looking at the product stocks and the risks of onshore damage from Ida,” said Matt Stanley, a senior broker at Star Fuels in Dubai. “Now that the storm has made landfall it looks like the worst is past for the offshore platforms and over the next couple of days operators can look at getting those back up.”

Gulf of Mexico producers shut in more than 1.7 million barrels a day of crude output — about 15% of the total for the U.S. — ahead of the storm. The focus for crude markets is now shifting back to the virus and OPEC+, Stanley said.

Refiners including Valero Energy Corp. shut about 12% of U.S. oil-processing capacity as a precaution ahead of the Category 4 storm, which has stronger winds than Katrina in 2005. Colonial Pipeline Co., the operator of the largest fuel-distribution system from the refining centers in Texas and Louisiana to customers across the eastern U.S., idled its main network.

Gasoline prices in the southeast U.S. could climb heading into the end of summer if refineries suffer extensive damage or can’t get power and are forced to stay shut for an extended period, adding to the price inflation hitting Americans. Traders in Europe have already been preparing to fill any gap in supplies at New York Harbor, provisionally chartering tankers. Still, those would take as much as two weeks to cross the Atlantic.

“For a Category 4, you could be looking at four to six weeks or more of downtime for the refineries,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.

Ida, which came ashore about 60 miles (97 kilometers) south of New Orleans, drove up ocean levels as much as 16 feet (4.9 meters). The hurricane’s 150-mph winds tie Louisiana’s record set by Laura in 2020 and a 19th-century storm.

Published : August 31, 2021

#SootinClaimon.Com : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40005484

Best emerging currencies lose steam as rate-hike bets wane

Some of this years best-performing emerging-market currencies are falling out of favor as traders trim back bets on further interest-rate hikes.

The Brazilian real and the Russian ruble, which outpaced most of their peers in the first half amid policy tightening, have now gone into reverse. The real has slumped about 4.5% since the end of June, more than any other major currency tracked by Bloomberg.

The tightening cycle was in full force in emerging markets long before the Federal Reserve started laying out a timeline for scaling back its bond-buying program, which Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday could begin as soon as this year. The early hikes in Russia and Brazil have helped stem flows from emerging markets, though policymakers are still balancing the need to battle inflation with the desire to support economies battered by covid-19.

Poland and Colombia may be next to lift rates. That offers some upside potential for lagging currencies such as the Polish zloty, protecting their relative yield advantage against accelerating prices and the prospect of rising U.S. rates.

“Early hikers, where the speed of tightening has been in line with or in some cases faster than historical hiking cycles, are likely to slow the pace of hikes or pause in the months ahead,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by London-based Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note this month. “The second half of the emerging-market hiking cycle is likely to be even broader, with more central banks commencing some form of normalization.”

Brazil’s central bank has already increased its key rate by 325 basis points this year, more than most peers, and forward-market bets are pricing in slowing rate hikes after September’s meeting. In Russia, traders predict the central bank will increase its benchmark by about 50 basis points over the next three months, down from more than 130 points in early July.

This evolving rate environment presents a crucial opportunity for traders to take advantage of variations in the next phase of the emerging-market tightening cycle, according to Goldman Sachs.

South Korea became the first major Asian country to raise interest rates this year Thursday, with more hikes in the pipeline as the focus pivoted from propping up the economy to curbing a debt-driven asset bubble.

The won rose before relinquishing its gains after Korea’s central bank governor remained ambiguous on the timing of the next move. The currency should strengthen on a hawkish “Bank of Korea, economic resilience and a technically oversold won,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief emerging markets Asia & Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.

“Markets will likely continue to chase yield, meaning those countries, with relatively aggressive monetary stances and higher real yields will benefit most,” he said.

It’s a delicate balancing act for policymakers who have to battle rising prices without stifling growth as the threat of covid-19 variants continues to loom over the global economy. Poland for one has signaled it wants to keep monetary policy loose until the economic rebound is well underway despite surging inflation.

Still, the eastern European country may be the next in line after the economy expanded at its fastest-ever annual pace in the second quarter, with Deutsche Bank AG predicting hikes in October and November. The zloty this year has underperformed the currencies of Hungary and the Czech Republic, which have embarked on aggressive monetary-tightening campaigns to keep inflation under control.

Poland stands out as an emerging market that has been “behind the curve when it comes to raising rates,” said Oliver Harvey, a London-based strategist at Deutsche Bank. Its dovish policy stance has weighed on the currency, which the bank says is about 10% undervalued based on its models. If the central bank were to turn more hawkish later this year, the zloty could be a catch-up trade, he said.

Fresh hawkish sentiment is also emerging in Colombia, where the central bank has signaled it may soon join the regional trend for higher interest rates as inflation quickens. Policymakers see the economy expanding at 7.5% this year. Economists see policymakers increasing the key rate by 75 basis points this year, from a record low of 1.75%.

“We expect policymakers in Asia and Eastern Europe to tighten very gradually, with timing of hikes dependent on decisions by the Fed” and European Central Bank, said Lewis Jones, an emerging-market debt portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management LLC in New York. “Central Banks in Latin America and among the higher-yielding countries elsewhere are acting more aggressively to stave off medium-term inflation outlook concerns, while the overall hiking cycle is likely to be relatively short.”

In the coming week, investors will also watch rate decisions from Chile and Zambia.

Published : August 31, 2021