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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403688

Crypto’s next big thing raises questions while the price surges

EconMar 15. 2021

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Olga Kharif

The meteoric rise of Cardano over the past three months is catching the attention of some of the savviest investors in cryptocurrencies.

Billionaire Michael Novogratz sought to crowdsource information on the digital token, also known as Ada, on Tuesday, asking for help to explain the more than sixfold surge since the middle of December that briefly made it the third-biggest cryptocurrency by market value after stalwarts Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Novogratz isn’t the only one asking what’s going on with a network that still lacks many functionalities available on its more established rivals. That hasn’t stopped it from developing a loyal following on Reddit, similar to many of the so-called meme stocks that surged at the start of the year. Unlike the likes of GameStop Corp., Cardano has been able to maintain its upward momentum.

Cardano is the brainchild of Charles Hoskinson, a 33-year-old who looks like the PhD student that he was before crypto mania took over his life. He’s now a bit of a crypto rock star, running a YouTube channel with 105,000 subscribers, gets fan mail and even gifts from admirers, such as a letter Albert Einstein wrote and a bronze eagle.

“That’s the most surreal part of all of it,” Hoskinson said in an interview from Longmont, Colo. “I get recognized at airports.”

While his YouTube videos are being watched by tens of thousands of people, Cardano is still a work in progress. Even after an upgrade that happened in early March, it can’t yet be used to run many of the hottest applications in crypto, such as decentralized-finance projects that let users lend, trade with and borrow money from each other. The so-called smart-contract functionality is expected to come this year.

“I am not aware of a single popular application deployed on Cardano, nor have I seen any enthusiasm for the platform among developers,” said Nic Carter, co-founder of researcher Coin Metrics. “I am truly mystified as to why it is enjoying a resurgence in popularity.”

Cardano previously peaked in early 2018 during the crypto boom and bust, before crashing badly. This year, Cardano went to a market value of about $34 billion from about $5.6 billion, according to data tracker CoinMarketCap.com.

Perhaps investors are buying Cardano’s promise or just fear missing out on the gains. It’s billed as a better Ethereum, which has emerged as the innovation hub for projects ranging from DeFi to NFTs, efforts to issue digital art on blockchain. With transaction fees on Ethereum high, developers have been looking at alternative networks such as Cardano and rivals Tron and Polkadot.

“We did it right, but it meant we were one of the last ones to get to market,” Hoskinson said. He said he doesn’t know why Cardano’s value suddenly shot up.

“It’s been a wild ride, broke to a billionaire in eight years is pretty crazy,” Hoskinson said.

Hoskinson said Cardano’s blockchain security and governance are superior to Ethereum, and should allow for applications such as voting and supply-chain tracking. He is less interested in decentralized exchanges such as Uniswap and collectible art like digital cats.

“My goal is to run countries on this blockchain,” Hoskinson said. “I don’t care about Uniswap and CryptoKitties and other things. It’s a bubble, and it comes and it goes, like Pet Rocks and Beanie Babies.”

More than 100 companies are “in the pipeline,” looking to shift from Ethereum to Cardano when its functionality matures, he said.

“You can take your DeFi and you can run it on my system for 1/100 to 1/1000 of the cost,” he said.

Hoskinson dove into crypto as a disenfranchised 20-something, who wanted to see heads roll on Wall Street after the financial crisis — and they didn’t. After he stumbled onto the Bitcoin white paper in 2010, he looked at all the references it cited, and concluded that Bitcoin will fail. Still, he started mining the cryptocurrency, most of which he said he gave away or spent.

Hoskinson started the for-profit company IOHK in 2015 to develop Cardano and other cryptocurrency projects. The effort was funded by several large angel investors and through an initial coin offering in Asia that raised about $70 million. IOHK received 8% of the coin supply, plus about $30 million in cash to write code for Cardano over a three-year period, Hoskinson said. IOHK now has about 300 employees and contractors, Hoskinson said.

While 12 companies are working on Cardano development, IONK is the largest, he said. Between 2018 and October 2020, the average number of developers actively working on Cardano has roughly doubled, according to tracker Electric Capital, which calls this growth “modest.”

“My job is to set it all up,” Hoskinson said. “What I can be is a kind of Steve Wozniak to Apple. Pass iPhones at the store.”

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403668

A car, some jewelry, and a piece of cryptocurrency: the federal government is auctioning bitcoin

EconMar 14. 2021

By The Washington Post · Hamza Shaban

WASHINGTON – Next week, eager investors trying claim a piece of the extraordinary bitcoin rally can look to an unexpected broker: the federal government.

Starting Monday, the General Services Administration, which regularly holds auctions on surplus federal assets – like office furniture, school buses and aircraft parts – will allow the public to bid on a fraction of a bitcoin, valued at $43,000 as of Friday afternoon.

“This auction marks the first time cryptocurrency will be made available for public sale through GSA Auctions, and it is the only piece of cryptocurrency to have fallen under the purview of the U.S. General Services Administration,” a GSA spokesperson told The Washington Post in a statement.

The auction comes as bitcoin is trading near its all-time high, flirting with price levels just below $60,000, and as the broader world of cryptocurrency has enjoyed a staggering rally that began last year. Since the beginning of 2021, bitcoin’s price has nearly doubled, as investors flock to the digital token in part as protection against inflation and a weakening dollar.

The GSA declined to share where the bitcoin came from, citing privacy concerns. Items that the GSA puts up for auction can come from a wide range of sources, the agency said, including excess government equipment, gifts from foreign governments and seized property.

“Whether it’s a car, or a piece of jewelry, or now even cryptocurrency, you never know what kind of treasures you’ll find on GSA Auctions,” said Acting Regional Administrator Kevin Kerns with GSA’s Southeast Sunbelt Region, in a statement. The auction will last for two days, ending on Wednesday.

The winner of the auction must complete the full payment through a wire transfer and needs to have a digital wallet to receive the bitcoin slice. Since GSA auctions typically involve physical assets, the agency discloses to bidders that “Defects may exist and repairs may be needed. Buyer must pack, load, and remove. Inspection/removal by appt only.” But for the bitcoin auction, the GSA said it will not hold an inspection day, since there is no tangible asset up for bid.

The 0.7401 piece of a single bitcoin is listed on the agency’s auction Website alongside other items, including an aircraft engine, five barrels filled with 2,750 pounds of spent ammunition casings, and a 2008 Ford Escape.

While the bitcoin auction is a first for the GSA, the federal government has been auctioning bitcoin since 2014, after the FBI shut down the online black market Silk Road and seized more than 170,000 bitcoins in the crackdown. People who bought and sold illicit goods on the digital marketplace used bitcoin as currency, which helped to shield their identities.

The U.S. Marshals Service, the law enforcement agency that administered the first bitcoin auction and that has conducted eight others since, has auctioned off roughly 187,381 bitcoins. The tokens were forfeited from various criminal, civil and administrative cases. As of Friday afternoon those auctioned tokens are collectively worth about $10.7 billion.

“Governments have been routinely seizing crypto assets for many years, including and related to the collapse of Silk Road,” said Lex Sokolin, the co-head of fintech at Consensys, a blockchain technology company. “As more mainstream activity moves to crypto networks, such revelations will be less sensational and just a regular part of economic activity.”

Over recent months, institutions have shown a reinvigorated interest in bitcoin, with a number of companies revealing significant investments, including MicroStrategy, Square and Tesla, and the financial sector increasingly is integrating bitcoin, said Angela Walch, a professor at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research associate at the UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies.

“This has happened alongside continued crumbling of political and social institutions, with the January 6 attack on the Capitol, a second impeachment trial, the lack of a shared set of facts between citizens of the U.S. regarding the pandemic and elections, and massive failures of government and infrastructure during the Texas winter storm,” she said. “All of these events highlight bitcoin’s use as a sort of fallout shelter from the world falling apart.”

Compared to previous government auctions of cryptocurrency, when as many as 50,000 bitcoins were up for grabs, and when fewer venues existed for people to purchase cryptocurrency, the GSA’s event is modest. But the auction and the rising interest around bitcoin raises broader questions about potential government adoption, said Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, a digital asset management firm. “Who will be the first G20 economy to embrace bitcoin?” she asked, describing the potential for tech infrastructure and innovation as a generational opportunity.

The GSA, which employs more than one million civilian workers and is in charge of the federal government’s real estate and procurement, typically maintains a low-profile in the national conversation. But last year the GSA drew heightened attention when its then-top official became the center of a political controversy following the presidential election. Emily Murphy, a Trump appointee and the former administrator, did not declare Joe Biden the apparent winner until 16 days after several media outlets projected his victory, delaying the official transfer of funds and resources to Biden’s transition team.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403612

Gold plunges amid rise in US stock market

EconMar 12. 2021

By The Nation

The price of gold dropped by Bt200 per baht weight in morning trade on Friday, the Gold Traders Association reported.

As of 9.29am, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt24,850 per baht weight and selling price Bt24,950, while gold ornaments were priced at Bt24,407.60 and Bt25,450, respectively.

At close on Thursday, the buying price of a gold bar was Bt25,050 per baht weight and selling price Bt25,150, while gold ornaments were Bt24,604.68 and Bt25,650, respectively.

Spot gold price moved to US$1,723 (Bt52,817) per ounce after rising slightly by 80 cents to $1,722.6 on Thursday on the weakening dollar and the decline in US bond yield. However, the rise in the US stock market and strong US labour statistics have obstructed the rise in the price of the precious metal.

Hong Kong gold price dropped by HK$120 to $15,960 (Bt63,050) per tael, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society reported.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403598

Stocks surge to record with aid deluge imminent

EconMar 12. 2021A Wall Street street sign outside the New York Stock Exchange as snow falls in New York on Feb. 1, 2021. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Jeenah Moon.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Jeremy Herron, Vildana Hajric

U.S. stocks jumped to an all-time high, powered by a renewed rally in tech shares as investors eye a $1.9 trillion spending injection from the federal government.

The S&P 500 reclaimed a record in a broad rally led by tech and consumer discretionary shares. The Nasdaq 100 Index surged more than 2.5% as it continued to rebound from a rout that had taken it 11% below its February record. Chipmakers paced the tech advance. Twitter Inc. jumped 5.7%, while Tesla Inc. continued its recovery. Korean e-commerce giant Coupang Inc. popped 41% in its market debut. Verizon Communications Inc. saw surging demand for its $25 billion debt sale.

The 10-year Treasury yield pared an increase after an auction of 30-year notes. Jobless claims fell more than forecast, signaling labor-market momentum as President Joe Biden signed the bill Thursday ahead of a prime time address to the nation. The dollar slumped versus major peers.

“The administration has slipped a little bit of extra fuel to the equity markets with their bill. It’s going to be rocket fuel,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “We’re headed to new highs because of all that stimulus money that’s being put out there and it’s more broad-based than the first couple stimulus programs.”

Risk assets resumed their broad rally with vaccinations rolling out around the world and the U.S. poised to notch economic growth not seen since the 1980s. Concern that explosion would deliver a bout of inflation eased after Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected report on consumer prices, while Thursday’s report on jobless claims showed plenty of slack in the labor market.

Elsewhere in markets, German 10-year bond yields declined and the Stoxx 600 Index gained after the European Central Bank indicated it will step up the pace of bond purchases. Copper climbed above $9,000 a ton in London and oil advanced.

Meanwhile, the ECB pledged to ramp up its buying of government debt in coming months in a bid to a contain rising bond yields that threaten to derail the region’s economic recovery. While policymakers are now committing to front load purchases, they still kept the overall size of the $2.2 trillion (1.85 trillion-euro) pandemic bond-buying program unchanged.

These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

– The S&P 500 Index gained 1% as of 4 p.m. EST.

– The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.5%.

– The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7%.

– The MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 2.7%.

Currencies

– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.55%.

– The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1990.

– The British pound gained 0.4% to $1.3993.

– The Japanese yen was little changed at 108.43 per dollar.

Bonds

– The yield on 10-year Treasurys was little changed at 1.52%.

– The yield on two-year Treasurys dipped one basis point to 0.14%.

– The 30-year rate rose to 2.27%.

– Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.334%.

Commodities

– West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.5% to $65.05 a barrel.

– Gold futures were little changed at $1,721.30 an ounce.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403597

OPEC sees weaker outlook as it keeps lid on supply

EconMar 12. 2021Oil pumping jacks near Neftekamsk, in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia, on Nov. 19, 2020. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by Andrey Rudakov.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Grant Smith

OPEC downgraded the outlook for demand for its crude over the next two quarters, in keeping with the group’s plans to keep a tight rein on supply.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed estimates for the amount of crude it will need to pump in the second quarter by 690,000 barrels a day, amid a weaker picture for demand and stronger growth in rival supply.

“Ongoing lockdown measures, voluntary social distancing and other pandemic-related developments” continue to weigh on economic activity, the group’s Vienna-based research department said in its monthly report. Conditions should improve in the second half of 2021, it added.

The wariness is consistent with last week’s decision by Saudi Arabia and its fellow producers across the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The coalition surprised traders and propelled prices to a 14-month high above $70 a barrel by largely refraining from restoring any more of the production halted during the coronavirus.

Crude traders had widely expected OPEC+ to agree to revive about 1.5 million barrels a day at last week’s meeting, and the shock move has divided observers on whether the alliance now risks over-heating global markets.

The report published on Thursday confirms that OPEC doesn’t share those concerns. The cartel reduced its overall forecasts for the volume of crude it will need to provide this year by 250,000 barrels a day, compared to last month’s report, to an average of 27.26 million a day.

As the group is pumping considerably below this level, it should manage to deplete surplus oil inventories that accumulated during the pandemic.

Output from OPEC’s 13 members plunged by 647,000 barrels a day to 24.848 million a day last month, the report showed, as de facto leader Saudi Arabia implemented extra cutbacks to speed up the market’s rebalancing.

The kingdom said at the group’s last meeting on March 4 that, out of a sense of “caution,” these additional extra curbs will remain in place in April, and be reversed only gradually thereafter.

Still, OPEC expects the demand outlook to brighten in the second half of 2021. It boosted projections for global oil demand in the fourth quarter by 970,000 barrels a day, and requirements for its crude in that period by 400,000 a day.

“By the end of the first half, economic activity is expected to accelerate as the impact of the pandemic is expected to taper off,” the group wrote in its report. This momentum will be “supported by pent-up demand, especially in contact-intensive service sectors such as tourism and travel.”

That could allow OPEC to reverse some of the output restraints, which — including Riyadh’s additional cuts — now stand at about 8 million barrels a day, or roughly 8% of global supplies.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403595

U.S. jobless claims hit lowest since November with more vaccines

EconMar 12. 2021A worker puts down a table cloth at a restaurant in San Francisco on March 9, 2021. MUST CREDIT: Bloomberg photo by David Paul Morris.

By Syndication Washington Post, Bloomberg · Olivia Rockeman

Applications for U.S. jobless benefits fell by more than forecast last week to the lowest since early November as covid-19 vaccinations accelerated and states eased more business restrictions.

Initial claims in regular state programs rose fell by 42,000 to 712,000 in the week ended March 6, Labor Department data showed Thursday. On an unadjusted basis, the claims decreased by 47,170 to 709,458. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey had called for 725,000 initial claims.

Continuing claims — an approximation of the number of Americans filing for ongoing unemployment benefits — declined by 193,000 to 4.14 million in the week ended Feb. 27. At the same time, claims in federal programs ballooned as of Feb. 20, including a more than one million surge in Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a program for self-employed and gig workers.

The initial claims figures suggest that more vaccines and fewer business restrictions are helping to slow the rate of job cuts. States including Texas, Mississippi and Wyoming have recently announced plans to relax pandemic-related rules, like capacity limits for dining and gatherings, which may boost hiring in the coming weeks.

States with the largest decline in initial claims last week included New York, Texas and Mississippi. Meanwhile, California posted the largest increase.

As of Feb. 20, the total number of claims in all unemployment programs was 20.1 million, according to the Labor Department. President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion package — which he plans to sign into law on Friday — extends some unemployment benefits, including the supplemental weekly jobless benefit of $300, until September.

Digging deeper:

– Initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rose by almost 42,000 to 478,001 in the week ended March 6. PUA eligibility was expanded recently to include individuals who won’t work because they are afraid of contracting coronavirus on the job, which could be contributing to the increase.

– Continuing claims for PUA rose by 1.1 million in the week ended Feb. 20.

– In the week ended Feb. 20, there were 5.5 million continuing claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, a program that provides extended jobless benefits for those who have exhausted their regular state benefits, an increase of more than 986,000.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403588

SCB lifts Thai GDP forecast to 2.6% this year

EconMar 12. 2021

By The Nation

Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (IEC) has revised upwards its 2021 Thai GDP growth forecast from 2.2 per cent to 2.6 per cent. The IEC cited faster-than-expected recovery of Thai exports, which returned to pre-Covid levels in January and February. It revised upwards its export growth forecast for 2021 from 4 per cent to 6.4 per cent.

However, the SCB thinktank also warned that recovery of the Thai tourism industry would only gain momentum in the fourth quarter of 2021 as vaccines brought herd immunity in key Asian markets.

On the labour front, data indicated Thai workers are experiencing falling income resulting from underemployment and skill mismatches, which could limit domestic demand and consumer confidence recovery going forward, the EIC said.

However, it estimates the government still has around Bt390 billion of budget to support recovery, including Bt250 billion from the Bt1-trillion emergency borrowing fund.

On monetary policy, the EIC expects the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to keep its policy rate at 0.5 per cent this year. It also forecasts the BOT will respond to liquidity demand from SMEs by adjusting soft loan criteria and promoting asset warehousing to reduce risks of fire sales in the real estate and hotel business.

On the baht, the EIC plays down concerns that the currency will strengthen, forecasting an exchange rate of Bt30-31 per US dollar at the end of 2021. But it said the BOT is likely to have limited room to address baht appreciation as Thailand is being monitored for currency manipulation by the US Treasury.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30403587

SET nudges up after US passes $1.9tn injection for economy

EconMar 11. 2021

By The Nation

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed at 1,575.13 on Thursday, up 2.08 points or 0.13 per cent. Total transactions amounted to Bt102.01 billion with an index high of 1,584.61 and a low of 1,569.87.

In the morning session, a Krungsri Securities analyst expected the SET to rise to between 1,580 and 1,590 points after US lawmakers approved a $1.9-trillion (Bt58.3 trillion) economic stimulus package, the US bond yield fell, and the consumer price index for February rose slightly.

The SET also gained positive sentiment from the Thai government’s economic stimulus measures and plans to lift restrictions on tourists entering the country.

The 10 stocks with the highest trade value today were CPF, IVL, AOT, CPALL, BAM, PTT, STA, DELTA, KBANK and OR.

As of 4.30pm, the oil price rose by $0.80 or 1.24 per cent to $65.24 per barrel, while the gold price dropped by $12.50 or 0.73 per cent to $1,734.30 per ounce.

Other Asian indices were on the rise:

Japan’s Nikkei Index closed at 29,211.64, up 175.08 points or 0.60 per cent.

China’s Shang Hai SE Composite Index closed at 3,436.83, up 79.09 points or 2.36 per cent, while the Shenzhen SE Component Index closed at 13,866.37, up 303.03 points or 2.23 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 29,385.61, up 478.09 points or 1.65 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 3,013.70, up 55.58 points or 1.88 per cent.

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index closed at 16,179.56, up 267.89 points or 1.68 per cent.