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https://www.nationthailand.com/pr-news/thailand/economy/40023257

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 % amid global economic recession 

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2022

Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) has revised its 2023 GDP growth projection to 3.2 % from the previous projection range of 3.2-4.2 %, though its 2022 GDP growth forecast has been upgraded to 3.2 % from the earlier projection of 2.9 %. 

Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, viewed that the global economy will see a significant slowdown in 2023 – presenting an obstacle for the Thai economic recovery. The US and Eurozone are set to show no growth given their policy rate hikes to tame inflation and the impact of an energy crisis in Europe. 

Meanwhile, it is more likely that China will reopen its borders in the second quarter of 2023. However, close attention should be paid to the situation there, especially the number of infected cases and deaths, as well as the adequacy of China’s public healthcare system. China may face a new wave of COVID-19 which would affect its economic activity. Under these circumstances, KResearch holds a cautious view towards China’s reopening and therefore maintains its 2023 projection of international tourist arrivals at 22 million. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is projected to grow at 3.2 % next year.  

As for the interest rate outlook, we at KResearch are of the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue to raise its policy rate to 5.0 % or even higher during the first quarter of 2023. The Fed Funds rate will likely stay at an elevated level throughout 2023. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to hike its policy rate at its two upcoming meetings by 0.25 % each, reflecting that domestic interest rates are also on an upward trajectory. Regarding the Baht’s outlook during the first quarter of 2023, it is expected that the Thai currency will strengthen even as the Fed presses ahead with its planned policy rate hikes because markets have already priced in such a likelihood. 

For the financial sector, it is expected that loans of commercial banks registered in Thailand will grow within a limited range of 4.2-5.2 % YoY (median rate of 4.7 %) in 2023 versus the 5.0 % growth projected for 2022, in line with economic conditions facing numerous risks and an uneven recovery expected in the business sector. The cautious trend will also be reflected in asset quality within the commercial banking system, as the NPL to total loan ratio in 2023 may not improve from that seen in 2022. NPLs are projected to stay within a range of 2.55-2.80 % at the end of 2023, compared to the 2.65-2.75 % expected at the end of 2022.  

Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said, “Regarding the Thai business outlook for 2023, KResearch views that most industries are still dealing with numerous challenges. In terms of operating costs, electricity prices, labour costs and interest rates are rising. Meanwhile, business income would be affected by major economies falling into a recession and the Baht’s appreciation, thus causing a decrease in Thai exports. Additionally, as the impacts of such factors on each industry vary, business income in 2023 will likely see an uneven or “K-shaped” recovery. Hotels and restaurants, private hospitals and the retail sector may lead the recovery. Meanwhile, industries which will see their recovery take longer or even see a contraction are real estate and exports of electronic devices and electrical appliances.” 

In addition, Thai businesses will increasingly be challenged by environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues in 2023. Thailand’s trading partners will likely adopt more stringent rules and regulations, especially the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Meanwhile, Thailand will focus more on developing definitions and a practical green taxonomy to move towards a green economy. Given this, Thai business operators need to study and make adjustments in order to enhance their long-term competitiveness.

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023246

NBTC urged to create national platform to help digital TV operators compete with OTT service

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2022

Jarupong Krisanaraj

Digital television (TV) industry experts have advised the National Broadcasting and Telecommunication Commission (NBTC) to revise regulations and create a national TV channel that would boost operators’ competitiveness.

Three panellists made the remarks during a seminar “Opportunities and solutions for Thailand’s digital TV industry amid changes in media ecosystem” at Pullman Bangkok Grande Sukhumvit on Monday.

Special adviser to Nation Group Adisak Limparungpatanakij said he sees opportunities for digital TV operators as content providers.

“Up to 80% of content nowadays comes from digital TV operators,” he said.

He urged the NBTC to revise regulations so as to make digital TV operators more competitive, otherwise over-the-top (OTT) streaming could dominate Thailand’s media market.

“OTT streaming has already won the hearts of people in Greater Bangkok,” he pointed out.

Tero Entertainment’s deputy managing director, Choakchai Eaimrittikrai, said the emergence of OTT streaming services, such as Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and Line TV, has forced digital TV operators to become content providers.

He added that digital TV operators’ revenue from advertising had halved from 60 billion baht to 30 billion baht due to disruption caused by OTT streaming.

“Digital TV operators have been forced to pay more attention to changes in consumers’ demands, such as broadcasting content on digital TV, Facebook and TikTok at the same time,” he said.

He asked the NBTC to create a national TV channel that would enable Thai content providers to broadcast content both locally and internationally.

He added that content on the national TV channel should include food, music, travel and sports, which could help promote Thailand’s soft power.

“Content providers simply make content to be broadcast on the national TV channel and add the subtitles,” he said, adding that it is weird that no Thai content is broadcast overseas.

He said that it is the NBTC’s duty to promote Thai content internationally to further strengthen Thailand’s digital TV industry.

He added that Tero Entertainment is currently in talks with a global sports media platform, Group One Holdings, on broadcasting One Lumpinee Muay Thai matches in 179 countries worldwide.

One 31’s chief operating officer, Deaw Woratangtragool, said there were still opportunities for Thailand’s digital TV industry to become content providers amid the streaming disruption.

“Amid the digital transition, many digital TV operators have already adjusted themselves to become content providers,” he said.

Echoing Choakchai’s idea, he said a national TV channel would benefit Thailand both locally and internationally.

The three panellists also agreed that digital TV was still effective despite changes in the media ecosystem.

However, they pointed out that outdated laws and regulations, as well as a lack of infrastructure and NBTC’s support, posed challenges to Thailand’s digital TV industry.

“Digital TV is still effective, but content providers must pay more attention to consumers’ needs,” the panellists said.

Related stories:

• NBTC team to oversee OTT streaming operators amid digital push
• Sports Authority told to repay THB600m or scrap True World Cup deal
• NBTC demands return of THB600m it gave to SAT for World Cup broadcast rights

Jarupong Krisanaraj

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https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40023242

Food delivery businesses face slump in demand next year: KResearch

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2022

The research arm of Kasikornbank (KBank) expects the food delivery business sector in Thailand to slow down next year in line with the situation in other countries as the Covid threat slowly ebbs.

A KResearch Centre study, released on Monday, said that the food delivery business in Thailand next year would be valued at around 81 billion to 86 billion baht next year, a contraction of 0.8% to 6.5% compared to the value this year.

The centre said the value would still be much higher than before the Covid pandemic.

KResearch said its study from early this year until now had found that about 37 per cent of its survey group had reduced the frequency of food delivery service since the improvement in the Covid-19 situation and as people have started returning to work.

KResearch said single-dish and basic foods remain the biggest group of foods ordered via food delivery services.

It said the categories of foods and drinks that faced a slowdown were drinks and bakery because employed people prefer to buy them on their own since their return to work.

KResearch advised operators of food delivery services to diversify their operations and allow customers to hire their riders to buy goods from supermarkets and convenience stores, or try to expand their services to the provinces to be able to sustain their business.